Supply Growth - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase significantly due to new mining projects, particularly the Simandou project in Guinea, which is projected to have a capacity of 100 million tons per year and reserves of 2.4 billion tons with a grade of 65% [1][2] - Other notable projects include the West Pilbara project in Australia with a capacity of 25 million tons per year, and the BAMIN project in Brazil expected to produce 27 million tons per year by 2027 [2] - The total new iron ore production capacity from these projects is estimated to be nearly 200 million tons annually once fully operational [2] Global Iron Ore Exports - In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.71 billion tons, with Australia accounting for 52.5% (898 million tons) and Brazil for 23.9% (408 million tons) [3] - Non-mainstream producers have seen a rise in export volumes, contributing significantly to the growth of global iron ore trade [3] Shipping Volume Fluctuations - Severe weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere affected iron ore shipments from major ports in Australia and Brazil, leading to a significant decline in global shipping volumes in Q1 2023 [4] - The average weekly shipping volume for iron ore in Q1 was 27.9 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year, but rebounded to an average of 30.01 million tons in H1 2023, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities [4] Domestic Supply Challenges - Domestic iron ore production in China has decreased, with a reported 414 million tons produced in the first five months of 2023, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5] - The overall domestic supply of iron ore has contracted significantly due to reduced imports and local production challenges [5][6] Demand Resilience - Domestic steel demand has remained strong in H1 2023, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, with an average profit margin for steel mills rising to 54.4% [7] - Steel production has increased, with daily molten iron output reaching 2.357 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] Outlook for H2 2023 - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with projections indicating a potential supply gap of 1.25 million tons under neutral expectations [9] - The overall supply and demand are anticipated to increase, leading to a more relaxed market condition, with iron ore prices expected to fluctuate within a range [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Report Date: July 10, 2025 Group 2: Spot Market Australia - **Prices and Changes**: The latest prices of various Australian iron ore varieties such as Platts 62 Index Newman powder, PB powder, Mac fines, etc., showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, Platts 62 Index Newman powder was at 95.20 (daily change: 0.30, weekly change: 2.05), and PB powder was at 725 (daily change: 2, weekly change: 12) [2]. - **Import Profits**: Import profits varied among different varieties, with some showing losses like -27.94 for Platts 62 Index Newman powder and -9.15 for PB powder, while others like Brazilian Blend had a profit of 1.97 [2]. Brazil - **Prices and Changes**: Brazilian mainstream iron ore varieties like Brazilian Blend, Brazilian Coarse IOC6, etc., also had their respective price levels and daily/weekly changes. For instance, Brazilian Blend was at 759 (daily change: 2, weekly change: 12) [2]. Non - mainstream and Others - **Prices and Changes**: Non - mainstream varieties such as Ukrainian Concentrate, 61% Indian fines, etc., had price movements. For example, Ukrainian Concentrate was at 808 (daily change: 3, weekly change: 15) [2]. Block and Pellet Premiums - **PB Block/Block Premium**: The latest price was 874 (daily change: 3, weekly change: 13), and the premium was 0.169 (daily change: 0.003, weekly change: 0.007) [2]. - **Ukrainian Pellet/Pellet Premium**: The price was 808 (daily change: 3, weekly change: 15), and the premium was 13.30 (daily change: 0.15, weekly change: 0.15) [2]. Domestic Ore - **Tangshan Iron Concentrate**: The latest price was 864 (daily change: 0, weekly change: 4), and the discounted price on the disk was 751.0 [2]. Group 3: Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange - **Contract Prices and Changes**: Contracts like i2601, i2605, and i2509 had their latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes. For example, i2601 was at 710.0 (daily change: 3.0, weekly change: 13.5), and i2605 was at 692.0 (daily change: 2.5, weekly change: 12.5) [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads for different contracts were also provided, such as 26.5 for i2601 and 18.0 for i2605 [2]. - **Basis/Internal - External Spread**: The basis and internal - external spreads showed changes. For example, the basis of i2601 was 52.8 (daily change: 6.8, weekly change: 0.7) [2]. Singapore Exchange - **Contract Prices and Changes**: Contracts FE01, FE05, and FE09 had their price movements. For example, FE01 was at 94.46 (daily change: 0.81, weekly change: 2.89) [2]. - **Basis/Internal - External Spread**: The basis and internal - external spreads of these contracts changed, with FE01 having a basis of - 55.8 (daily change: - 3.6, weekly change: - 9.9) [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 689.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; I01 closed at 707.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of I05 - I09 remained unchanged at -43.5 yuan/ton; I09 - I01 decreased by 1.0 yuan to 26.0 yuan/ton; I01 - I05 increased by 1.0 yuan to 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed different price and basis changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines (卡粉) increased by 2.0 yuan to 815 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining unchanged at 34 yuan; the price of Macarthur River fines (麦克粉) increased by 3.0 yuan to 708 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 30 yuan [6]. Group 4: Variety Spread - **Spread Changes**: Many variety spreads changed. For instance, the spread of PB lump - PB fines decreased by 1.0 yuan to 148.0 yuan/ton; the spread of FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan to 48.0 yuan/ton [13]. Group 5: Rule Adjustments - **Adjustments to Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, 乌克兰精粉) were added, and the brand premium for all was set to 0, effective from the I2202 contract. Four more varieties (太钢精粉, 马钢精粉, 五矿标准粉, SP10粉) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. - **Brand Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while other deliverable brands have a premium of 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Quality Difference and Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges for other elements were set. A dynamic adjustment mechanism for the iron element premium (X) was introduced [11]. Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [26].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-09 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 宏观情绪放缓，黑色震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪放缓，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3063元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3191元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，螺纹 相对偏弱，整体环比上一日略有好转，低价成交为主。昨日，全国建材成交9.6万吨。 综合来看：建材进入消费淡季，建材产量小幅回升，库存维持低位；板材产量环比小幅回升，整体利润尚可，目 前板材产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退坡后影响板材消费，但是当前出口仍保持高位。中央财 经委开会讨论治理"无序竞争"和"落后产能有序退出"，市场情绪得到提振，但由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季 弱需求将持续压制钢材价格。 跨品种：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场谨慎观望，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于733元/吨，涨幅0.14%。现 货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏不佳，钢厂采购多 以刚需为主。本期45 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price increase of black - series commodities may not be sustainable as the main goal of the recent Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing sectors rather than supply - side reform in the upstream of black and building materials industries. The current real estate market is still bottoming out, and the black - series market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline further. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Analysis**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black - series industry. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and the real estate market is still in the bottoming process. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise slightly. Technically, there is significant resistance above the futures price [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded bar main contract is 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar output is 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from last week; the hot - rolled coil output is 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from last week [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore output is expected to decline further due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which exerts pressure on the futures price. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend, but there is significant resistance above [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [6]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [6]. III. Industry News - On July 8, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14403.69 tons, a decrease of 62.08 tons from last Monday. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1269.2 tons, an increase of 30.8 tons from the previous period [8]. - A new round of staggered production has started for Shandong cement enterprises, which will help balance supply and demand in the industry [8]. - From July 7 to July 13, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 18 ports decreased by 31% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 26% week - on - week [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of finished products are showing a weak and volatile trend. The policy suggestion of "anti-involution and capacity reduction" has boosted market sentiment and driven short - term steel price increases, but the implementation of relevant policies remains to be verified. The implementation of Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel may suppress exports, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the Politburo meeting in late July [3]. - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term, affected by factors such as seasonal changes in supply, iron water production decline, and macro expectations [6]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are fundamentally bearish, but in the short term, prices are more influenced by emotions and expectations. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines and hedging positions look for opportunities to operate when the market rallies [9][10]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. - For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For纯碱, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 44,905 tons, a net increase of 8,464 tons. The position of the main contract was 2.168547 million lots, a net decrease of 28,783 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 64,587 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.593691 million lots, a net increase of 8,136 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The export pressure has increased due to Vietnam's anti - dumping policy. For rebar, both apparent supply and demand have increased, but the inventory clearance speed has slowed down. For hot - rolled coils, production has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has slightly accumulated [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+2.00), with a position change of +7312 lots to 655,200 lots. The weighted position was 1.0841 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.48% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The latest iron ore shipments have decreased seasonally, and the daily average pig iron production has decreased. The terminal demand is neutral, and the port inventory has changed little. The price is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.07% at 5650 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but in the short term, prices are affected by emotions and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and look for hedging opportunities when the market rallies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 2.11% at 8215 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 285 yuan/ton over the futures. The 421 market price was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe was 1151 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1030 yuan, unchanged. As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes (-0.19%) from the previous period and an increase of 10.57% year - on - year. For soda ash, the spot price was 1168 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (2.13%) from last Thursday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.13%, with volume and open interest contracting. In the current situation, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level with few real - world contradictions. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the expectation of policy benefits is fermenting. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.14%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, after the end of the "exemption period", the tariff disturbance reappears, and the market sentiment weakens. The iron ore price has fallen after fluctuating at a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. In the short term, the iron ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Tariff announcement**: US President Trump announced on July 7, 2025, that the US will impose tariffs on products from Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Tunisia starting from August 1, 2025, with rates ranging from 25% to 36% [6]. - **Excavator sales**: In June 2025, 18,804 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to June 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [7]. - **Iron ore production of Ferrexpo**: Due to the Ukrainian government's suspension of the VAT refund policy, Ferrexpo's operating cash flow was under pressure in Q2 2025. The company reduced the pellet production line from two to one, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore production [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 yuan. The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of hot - rolled coil in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports increased by 1 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the SGX swap and the Platts Index decreased [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price was 3,063 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 954,572 lots, a decrease of 271,730 lots, and the open interest was 2,168,547 lots, a decrease of 28,783 lots [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price was 3,191 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume was 341,788 lots, a decrease of 148,639 lots, and the open interest was 1,593,691 lots, an increase of 8,136 lots [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price was 733.0 yuan, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 233,496 lots, a decrease of 57,393 lots, and the open interest was 655,157 lots, an increase of 7,312 lots [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [18][19][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has little change. Supply continues to rise to a high level this year, while demand remains weak in the off - season. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply and demand are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Policy benefits are expected, but the price may switch to the industrial logic. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [36]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased again. The terminal consumption of ore has declined slightly. The supply has shrunk. The ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [37].

黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.35%）。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手，环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手，环比增 ...

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 95.70 -0.60 1.30 纽曼粉 716 0 13 765.0 92.45 -0.65 0.90 -27.04 PB粉 721 -2 13 762.4 94.90 -0.40 1.20 -8.23 麦克粉 705 -1 14 770.3 90.80 -0.75 1.15 -3.40 金布巴 680 5 20 767.8 86.90 -0.60 1.00 -4.36 主流 混合粉 655 -5 8 778.1 83.70 -0.40 1.05 -1.39 超特粉 609 -1 11 816.7 80.15 -0.40 0.75 -11.55 卡粉 813 -5 8 750.8 107.60 -0.80 2.95 -18.52 巴西 巴混 755 -2 13 764.9 97.55 -0.25 1.15 2.92 主流 巴粗IOC6 696 -2 15 763.3 巴粗SSFG 701 -2 15 乌克兰精粉 805 -3 15 854.8 61%印粉 660 5 20 卡拉拉精粉 805 -3 15 817.8 罗伊山粉 691 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term view on the iron ore 2509 contract is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a state of oscillation, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern leading to a weakly oscillating ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have weakened. During the off - season, more steel mills are undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of ore has begun to decline but remains at a high level for the year, providing some support for the ore price. At the same time, port arrivals have increased, but miners' shipments have continued to decrease significantly. After the end of the fiscal year, overseas ore supply has significantly shrunk, and domestic ore production has stabilized, resulting in a contraction of ore supply. After the "exemption period" ends, tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment. With the supply - demand dual - weak situation, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the short - term ore price is likely to be under pressure and oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3].