Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 12.7 billion yuan (yoy +23.3%), operating profit of 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit of 3 billion yuan (yoy +14%) [4][5] - The company's international business continues to grow rapidly, driven by favorable visa policies, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend of approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (yoy +32.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (yoy +16.4%) - Vacation business revenue of 870 million yuan (yoy +23.6%) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (yoy +10.7%) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (yoy +24.9%) [4] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.2 billion yuan, 68.5 billion yuan, and 76.7 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.6 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 24.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +3%, +17%, and +14% [7] Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European seat recovery rates at 96% [5] - The company anticipates continued growth in international travel demand due to the further opening of visa policies and ongoing recovery of international capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 12.7 billion yuan (up 23.3% year-over-year), operating profit at 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit at 3 billion yuan (up 14% year-over-year) [4][5] - The growth in international travel demand, driven by visa-free policies, has significantly boosted the company's performance, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend totaling approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (up 32.7% year-over-year) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (up 16.4% year-over-year) - Vacation package revenue of 870 million yuan (up 23.6% year-over-year) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (up 10.7% year-over-year) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (up 24.9% year-over-year) [4] - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.24 billion yuan, 68.53 billion yuan, and 76.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.64 billion yuan, 21.76 billion yuan, and 24.78 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 3%, 17%, and 14% [7] Market Position and Outlook - The company is experiencing a strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European flight capacity recovery at 96% [5] - The anticipated continued growth in international travel demand is expected to further drive the company's performance in the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with international business continuing to grow. Q4 revenue reached 12.7 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, while the full-year revenue for 2024 was 53.3 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. The net profit for 2024 was 17.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 32.3% [1][11][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The net profit for the same year was 17.2 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase. The revenue structure is primarily driven by transportation and accommodation, which together account for approximately 80% of total revenue [11][12][14]. Business Segments - Accommodation revenue for 2024 was 21.6 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue reached 20.3 billion yuan, a 10% increase. The vacation segment saw a significant growth of 38% year-on-year, reaching 4.3 billion yuan, driven by international business growth [12][14][24]. International Expansion - The company’s international business is expanding rapidly, with Q4 2024 outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019. The international business accounted for 10% of total revenue for the year, with a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market [2][18][24]. AI Integration - The integration of AI technologies is enhancing operational efficiency, with AI customer service improving response times and IT development efficiency. The AI tools, such as TripGenie, have seen significant engagement growth, indicating their potential as new customer acquisition channels [20][24]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.6 billion yuan, 68.9 billion yuan, and 76.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.6%, 11.9%, and 10.4%. Net profit is expected to reach 17.9 billion yuan, 20.8 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan over the same period [7][24].

Financial Results Overview - Total net revenues for Q4 2023 reached RMB 103.3 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 105.5% and a 3.4% increase compared to Q4 2022 [1] - Accommodation revenue was RMB 39.0 million, with a year-over-year increase of 131.1% [1] - Transportation revenue was RMB 41.1 million, reflecting an 86.3% year-over-year growth [1] - Gross profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 83.2 million, with a gross profit margin of 80.5% [1] - Operating profit was RMB 22.0 million, with an operating profit margin of 21.3% [1] Strategic Focus - The company has implemented AI innovations, such as Trip Genie, leading to a 200% increase in traffic and a 100% increase in browsing time in 2024 [2] - International business accounted for 14% of total revenue in Q4, with a 70% year-over-year growth in online flight and hotel bookings [2] Market Trends and Initiatives - Visa applications for inbound tourism increased by 20%, while visa-free entries grew by 112% [3] - The "Old Friends Club" targets travelers aged 50 and above, representing 10% of the user base with 30% higher purchasing power [3] Sustainability and Social Responsibility - The company supports rural revitalization through eco-friendly resorts, creating job opportunities and enhancing local economies [4] - The MSCI rating improved to "A," and the company is recognized in the UN Global Compact [4] Outlook and Commitment - Strong demand across business segments positions the company for sustainable growth in 2025 [5] - The focus on partnerships aims to drive mutual benefits and economic contributions [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the financial sector, with January's new social financing scale reaching 7.06 trillion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period historically, and an increase of 5,866 million yuan year-on-year [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the silver economy, particularly in the tourism sector, driven by the increasing population of individuals aged 60 and above, which is projected to reach 310 million by the end of 2024 [12]. - The introduction of special tourist trains for the elderly is expected to enhance the travel experience for senior citizens, with a target of operating over 2,500 such trains by 2027, significantly boosting the silver tourism market [11][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Economy - In January, M1 grew by 0.4% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 7.0%, slightly below expectations [3]. - The social financing stock year-on-year growth was 8.0%, indicating a rise in funding demand relative to supply [3]. Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing - Lingrui New Materials reported a revenue of 960 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.94%, driven by the semiconductor market's upturn and the growing demand for high-performance packaging materials [7]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the demand for spherical inorganic powder materials, particularly in AI server applications [7]. Consumer Group - The silver economy is currently valued at approximately 7 trillion yuan, with projections to reach 30 trillion yuan by 2035, highlighting the significant growth potential in this sector [12]. - The average daily spending of elderly tourists on dining is estimated at 200-300 yuan, with accommodation costs ranging from 300-500 yuan per night, indicating a robust economic impact from silver tourism [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an all-time high in quarterly gross bookings, revenue, and adjusted operating profit during Q3 fiscal 2025, with adjusted operating profit reaching $46 million, a year-on-year growth of about 38% [5][20]. - Adjusted operating profit margin as a percentage of gross bookings was 1.76%, an improvement from 1.6% in the same quarter last year [20]. - Gross booking value increased by 26.8% year-on-year in constant currency terms, compared to 22.9% in the first half of the fiscal year [5][20]. Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Air ticketing gross bookings for the quarter were $1.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1% in constant currency [21]. - Hotels and Packages segment gross bookings reached $681.5 million, a growth of 23.4% year-on-year in constant currency [22]. - The bus ticketing business saw gross bookings of $328.9 million, growing at 23.6% year-on-year in constant currency [24]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international air ticketing revenue grew over 32% year-on-year, while international hotels revenue surged over 63% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in the international outbound business [8][20]. - The domestic air market saw a growth of nearly 9% year-on-year on a flown basis, with the company maintaining a market share of over 30% [21]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience through new product features, such as part payment options for international air tickets and value bundles for international flights [9][10]. - The strategy includes expanding into emerging markets and enhancing supply depth in pilgrimage cities to cater to growing spiritual tourism [11][14]. - The company is also investing in technology and customer experience, including the expansion of its Gen AI strategy with the Myra chatbot for accommodation products [13][75]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued growth of the travel sector, driven by rising income levels and changing consumer behavior towards discretionary spending [4][5]. - The company anticipates that macroeconomic factors could impact growth, but remains optimistic about outpacing industry growth rates [49][50]. - Management noted that while there are supply challenges in the domestic air market, improvements are expected in the coming quarters [32]. Other Important Information - The company has a strong cash position of over $700 million, which will be leveraged for potential growth opportunities and stock buyback programs [26]. - A business transfer agreement was signed to acquire the Happe expense management platform, enhancing the company's corporate travel and expense management solutions [26]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for air travel growth in 2025 - Management acknowledged ongoing supply constraints in the domestic air market but noted improvements are expected in the coming quarters [32]. Question: Take rate changes and competition from Indigo - Management clarified that the decrease in take rates is largely seasonal and not indicative of competitive pressure from Indigo [35]. Question: Future EBIT margin expectations - Management aims to reach an adjusted EBIT margin of 1.8% to 2% in the medium term, with ongoing cost control measures [39]. Question: Demand strength across customer segments - Management confirmed that all customer segments, including budget and premium travelers, are experiencing growth [90].

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