资料图 本文综合第一财经、北京商报、南方都市报、智通财经等 自2022年以来，中国房地产已经经历约4年的深度调整。目前，全国房价已普遍跌回2016年的水平，市场对房地产行业未来走向的关注不断升温。 2026年楼市将走向何方？能否升温反弹？是延续底部徘徊，还是迎来稳步升温？刚需一族可以出手了吗？有业内人士表示，从多项核心指标来看，本轮国内 房价调整幅度已明显超过国际平均水平，多指标预示二手房价调整已进入底部区间。 1 克而瑞统计数据显示，2025年国内商品房全年成交面积约为8.9亿平方米，大致相当于2009年的水平；成交金额约8.4万亿元，接近2015年的规模。其中，商 品住宅成交面积为7.4亿平方米，回到了2007年的水平。2025年，30个重点城市二手房全年成交面积达到2.14亿平方米，创下历史新高。但与此同时，价格调 整幅度也相当显著。 丁祖昱认为，从国际比较来看，本轮国内房价调整幅度已明显超过国际平均水平。综合1970年以来57个国家和地区的最长房价调整周期，国际房价平均调整 周期约4.5年，平均回调幅度约22%。相比之下，国内核心城市二手房的调整幅度已"明显偏深"。 业内人士：国内房价调整幅度明显超过 ...

Group 1 - The company, Wuzhou International Holdings Limited, announced the completion of a buyback of $251 million of its $300 million 4.95% secured bonds due in 2026 on January 15, 2026 [1] - Following the buyback, all bonds accepted have been canceled, and the company has exercised its right to redeem all remaining bonds on January 15, 2026 [1] - As of the announcement date, there are no bonds remaining to be redeemed, and the company has applied to the Stock Exchange for the cancellation of the bonds' listing status, which is expected to take effect after the market closes on January 26, 2026 [1]

去年12月份召开的经济工作会议对2026年的房地产定调是"着力稳定房地产市场"，而这一开年，各项楼 市的支持措施在不断的展开了。 最近连发了两项有关楼市的税收优惠政策的延续。 最近有关楼市的利好措施在紧密出台，2026年的楼市发展大幕或许正在徐徐开启。 紧跟其后的1月8日，人民日报发布了《中央"点名"住房公积金，释放了什么信号？》的文章。文章直指 公积金制度是"食之无味、弃之可惜"，或许是住房公积金没有发挥到充分的作用。这可能意味着住房公 积金制度将会迎来大变，尤其在公积金贷款门槛、跨区域贷款、贷款额度、贷款利率等方面或都将迎来 变化，更利于大家买房用公积金贷款。 1月14日，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部三部门发布了《关于延续实施支持居民换购住房有关个 人所得税政策的公告》，居民换购住房的个人所得税退税优惠政策正式官宣继续支持，这次是延续了2 年，实施时间为2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日。 仅仅1天后的1月15日，在新闻发布会上，央行副行长邹澜表示，会同金融监管总局，将商业用房购房贷 款最低首付比例由50%下调至30%。且明确表示，2026年降准降息仍有一定空间。降低商业用房购房首 付比例，能 ...

摩根士丹利中国香港及印度房地产研究主管Praveen K Choudhary发表观点称：预计香港住房价格在继 2025年回升4%之后，将于2026年进一步上涨10%以上。我们对写字楼和零售的预测也比市场共识更乐 观。按子板块来看，我们的偏好顺序是住宅，其次是写字楼，最后是零售。 2026年香港零售销售预计将会增长3%，驱动力来自内地签注更便利带来的访港人数增加。不确定性在 于线上零售增长、深圳以更低价格的产品和服务竞争，以及内地免税购物趋势。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 市场共识普遍认为2025年年中香港住宅价格的回升主要受HIBOR大幅下降推动，属于周期性反弹。由 于中国房地产仍面临写字楼空置率高、商业地产资产质量压力等挑战，市场预计2026年将出现类似2019 - 24年的低迷期。但我们的观点有别于市场共识。受取消印花税影响，我们预计住宅价格将在2026和 2027年也会继续上涨。香港中环写字楼租金将因租户转向优质写字楼和有限的供应而上涨。此外，尽管 香港地产股票已上涨30%，与恒指去年28%涨幅表现一致，但其价格仍较净资产折让50%，该幅度有望 收窄至30%。 2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jingneng Real Estate (600791.SH) is expected to report a significant loss in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company ranging from -986 million to -1,315 million yuan [1] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, to be between -979 million and -1,308 million yuan in 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the USD have significant implications for various industries and economic conditions, particularly highlighting the transition into the "6 era" where the RMB remains in the 6 range against the USD [1][4][12] Group 1: Economic Implications of RMB Fluctuations - The "6 era" signifies a long-term RMB exchange rate stability around 6, reflecting China's economic competitiveness and international acceptance of the RMB [1][4] - Historical context shows that the RMB has fluctuated from around 1 to over 7 against the USD, indicating different economic phases and their impacts on consumer behavior and job opportunities [2][4] - The current exchange rate environment is causing structural adjustments in the economy, with some sectors thriving while others struggle, emphasizing the need for adaptation [4][6] Group 2: Impact on Employment and Wages - RMB appreciation affects export-oriented companies negatively, leading to reduced profit margins and potential wage stagnation for employees in these sectors [5][6] - Conversely, companies involved in imports benefit from lower costs, which can enhance competitiveness and potentially lead to wage increases for their employees [5][6] - The macroeconomic perspective suggests that a moderate appreciation of the RMB is generally favorable for employment and wage growth in high-end manufacturing, finance, and technology sectors [5][12] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - RMB appreciation influences real estate prices by attracting foreign investment, particularly in first-tier cities, while also affecting the financing costs for domestic real estate companies [8] - The stability of real estate prices in first-tier cities contrasts with greater volatility in lower-tier cities, influenced by factors beyond just exchange rates [8][12] Group 4: Savings and Investment Strategies - The relationship between RMB appreciation and savings is complex, as it benefits those holding USD deposits while posing challenges for RMB deposit holders due to declining interest rates [9][12] - Many individuals are shifting their investments from traditional savings to diversified channels like financial products, funds, and stocks, reflecting a need for better returns in a low-interest environment [9][12] Group 5: Internationalization of the RMB - The increasing use of the RMB in international trade enhances its global standing, providing a more stable foundation for its exchange rate [11] - RMB appreciation raises costs for studying abroad and traveling, impacting cultural exchange and education internationalization, while simultaneously attracting more foreign visitors to China [11][12] Group 6: Structural Adjustments and Future Outlook - The transition period presents challenges for industries reliant on low-cost competition, necessitating a shift towards higher value-added products to survive [6][12] - The ongoing economic transformation requires individuals and businesses to adapt by enhancing skills and diversifying investment strategies to navigate the evolving landscape [12][13]

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents an overview of recent events and market conditions across multiple industries, including production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. It also includes price and data updates for various commodities and industries, indicating market trends such as price fluctuations and changes in production and consumption indicators. 3) Summary by Directory A. Macro - Events - **Production Industry**: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation held its 2026 annual work conference, emphasizing the implementation of major aerospace projects, industrial transformation, and the development of strategic and future industries [1] - **Service Industry**: In 2025, the annual social financing scale increment was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. The central bank decided to cut re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19, 2026 [2] B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continued to decline, while egg, zinc, and nickel prices rose [3] - **Mid - stream**: PX had a high operating rate, while polyester and PTA had low operating rates. Power plant coal consumption was at a low level [4] - **Downstream**: Second and third - tier city commercial housing sales increased, and the number of domestic flights rose [5] C. Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 14, the spot price of eggs increased by 9.45% year - on - year, and the spot price of palm oil increased by 2.09% year - on - year [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of zinc increased by 0.92% year - on - year, while the spot price of nickel decreased by 1.76% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 6.65% year - on - year, and the spot price of Brent crude oil increased by 7.86% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of polyethylene increased by 3.04% year - on - year, and the spot price of urea increased by 1.01% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Real Estate**: The building materials composite index increased by 0.11% year - on - year on January 14, while the national concrete price index decreased by 0.01% year - on - year [37]

观点网讯：1月16日，北京市发改委综合处处长王育玲表示，对于市民关心的"以旧换新"，今年本市将 主动对接国家新一轮以旧换新政策举措，优化实施机制，持续推动汽车、家电等大宗商品消费增长。开 年时刻历来是扩大投资的关键时间点。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 市发改委投资处处长王丹丽透露，一季度，本市将坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，加快建设和储备 重大项目，做好各类要素保障，持续扩大有效投资。按照计划，1月底前本市将发布全年供地计划，力 争一季度集中供应一批优质地块，春节前下达40%的市政府固定资产项目建设资金，2月底前发行首批 地方政府专项债券。1月底前还将形成城市更新储备项目和攻坚项目清单，推动建筑指标统筹、功能混 合和复合利用、优化土地续期和房屋租期等创新政策集成落地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the financial difficulties faced by Baoneng Group and its chairman, Yao Zhenhua, including significant legal and debt issues, as well as a recent controversy regarding the undervaluation of assets in a court auction [1][3][6]. Group 1: Financial and Legal Issues - On January 15, Baoneng Group and Yao Zhenhua were reported to have two new enforcement cases totaling over 1.34 billion yuan, with one case amounting to approximately 1.1 billion yuan and the other about 246 million yuan [1][5]. - Baoneng Group currently has 48 enforcement cases with a total amount exceeding 49.4 billion yuan, and 48 records of being untrustworthy debtors involving over 3.87 billion yuan [6]. - The company has 347 concluded cases with a total enforcement amount of about 33.5 billion yuan, and an unpaid total of 28.48 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Business Operations and Investments - Baoneng Group, founded in March 2000, has a registered capital of approximately 300 million yuan and is involved in various sectors including investment in real estate and financial services [1][5]. - The group has invested in 68 companies, with 11 of them already deregistered, and has indirect investments in over 14,900 companies [2][6]. - Yao Zhenhua has stated that Baoneng Group has invested approximately 26 billion yuan in Qoros Auto from 2018 to 2025 [8]. Group 3: Recent Controversies - Yao Zhenhua recently released a video alleging illegal actions in the auction process of Qoros Auto's assets, claiming that the core assets were undervalued at 1.535 billion yuan, while a third-party evaluation suggested a value of 8 billion yuan [3][7]. - The second auction of the Qoros Auto factory in Changshu failed to attract bidders, with a starting price of 859.6 million yuan, which was 20% lower than the first auction [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...