食品饮料周报 白酒持续调整，关注高景气大众 品 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月16日 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 风险提示：1）宏观经济疲软的风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）重大食品安全事件的风险。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-5.31%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金种子酒（-1.28%）、顺鑫农业（-1.60%）、伊力特（- 2.09%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为金徽酒（-8.33%）、今世缘（-8.80%）、古井贡酒（-9.78%）。 观点：白酒持续调整，期待后续改善。白酒板块持续调整，上周白酒指数下跌5.31%。据今日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, announced the termination of its acquisition plan for Hunan Ailingshi Technology Co., Ltd. due to failure to reach agreement on key terms of the deal [1][5]. Acquisition Details - Three Squirrels' wholly-owned subsidiary, Anhui Yijianshi Entrepreneurship Investment Co., Ltd., intended to acquire Hunan Ailingshi for no more than 200 million yuan [4]. - The initial investment intention agreement was signed, and the parties were in discussions to finalize the deal, but ultimately could not agree on core terms [1][5]. Financial Performance - Despite the termination of the acquisition, Three Squirrels reported a significant increase in revenue, with 2024 revenue reaching 10.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.30% [7][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 214.33% to 319 million yuan [7][8]. Business Expansion - The company continues to expand its business, having completed the acquisition of a 60% stake in Future Coming (Tianjin) Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. for 114 million yuan and a 20% stake in Anhui Three Squirrels Zhenyang Beverage Co., Ltd. for approximately 12.96 million yuan [6][7]. - Three Squirrels is actively incubating 33 sub-brands, aiming to become a leading all-category, all-channel manufacturing retail brand in China [7]. Market Presence - Hunan Ailingshi Technology Co., Ltd. operates over 1,800 stores across 13 provinces and regions in China, indicating a strong market presence in the snack food sector [5].

Group 1 - The overall stock market has not shown a clear trend since 2025, characterized by volatility with a bottom and top range, leading to "diversification" as a key theme [1] - The macroeconomic situation in China is also showing signs of divergence, with the old economy, represented by the real estate sector, still on a downward trend, although the pace of decline has slowed due to supportive policies [1] - New sectors such as high-end manufacturing and new consumption are performing well, contributing positively to stabilizing China's economic growth [1] Group 2 - Investment strategies for the second half of the year will continue to be dominated by diversification, with rotation playing a more significant role in investment decisions [2] - After the first half's gains, sectors with strong fundamentals and speculative themes have accumulated significant increases, leading to some valuations reaching high levels [2] - The impact of the trade war initiated by the U.S. has made valuations in export-oriented industries, particularly those related to AI, more attractive [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully navigated through a challenging period and is now focusing on becoming a comprehensive supply chain company that integrates manufacturing, branding, and retailing. Group 1: Company Recovery and Strategy - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit after its peak in 2019, where it became the first in the snack industry to exceed 10 billion yuan in annual revenue [1][42] - A consensus was reached among executives that the company's products were priced too high, leading to a strategic shift towards "high-end cost-effectiveness" [2][14] - The company has successfully utilized platforms like Douyin (TikTok) to boost sales, achieving 2.2 billion yuan in sales in 2023, surpassing Tmall's 1.9 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Organizational Changes and Market Adaptation - The company adopted a "weaker" approach to management, focusing on small changes and empowering teams to make adjustments [11][12] - A new pricing and operational strategy was implemented to enhance competitiveness against lower-priced brands [15][16] - The company is expanding its product range with 33 new proprietary brands across various categories, including pet food and convenience foods [4][28] Group 3: Future Vision and Market Positioning - The founder envisions the company as a "super supply chain" entity that can serve various retail channels and consumer needs [5][17] - The company aims to establish a presence in community retail through convenience stores and lifestyle shops, capitalizing on urbanization trends [19][22] - The company recognizes the importance of adapting to market changes and is committed to continuous innovation and brand development [34][40]

Group 1: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector has recently gained attention from institutions, with companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor, Weicai Technology, and Naxin Micro being upgraded from "hold" to "buy" due to accelerated domestic substitution and surging AI demand [3] - Weicai Technology turned profitable in Q1, attracting positive ratings as it focuses on high-performance chip testing, indicating strong order backlogs [3] - Dinglong Co., a leader in polishing pads, reported over 70% profit growth in Q1, leading to a "buy" recommendation from Zhongyin Securities, highlighting the long-term logic of domestic semiconductor material substitution [3] Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector, particularly liquor stocks, has seen increased institutional interest, with companies like Kweichow Moutai, Jinshiyuan, and Qingdao Beer being heavily researched [3] - Kweichow Moutai's recent shareholder meeting announced a dividend of 34.6 billion, showcasing its strategic resilience and ecosystem [3] - CITIC Securities has suggested focusing on segments like snacks and beverages, driven by consumer recovery and high earnings certainty, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Bairun Co. receiving rating upgrades based on consumption upgrades and channel innovation [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy behind recent institutional upgrades is betting on domestic substitution and consumer recovery, with a focus on selecting companies with technological breakthroughs in semiconductors and leading firms in the food and beverage sector [5] - Investors are advised to consider buying on dips rather than chasing high valuations, especially in the semiconductor sector where valuations are already high, with leading stocks like SMIC and Cambrian having P/E ratios above 70 [4][5] - In the food and beverage sector, competition remains fierce, particularly in the liquor industry, necessitating a focus on companies with solid dividends and low inventory pressure [4][5]

Group 1 - Tianfeng Securities reports that trading indicators in May continue to decline month-on-month, indicating that market trading sentiment remains at a phase low [1] - Asset linkage indicators and market allocation indicators suggest significant potential for upward movement in the market [1] - Investor behavior shows a substantial increase in repurchase scale month-on-month, while the net reduction of industrial capital has widened significantly [1] Group 2 - CICC states that the market may maintain a volatile pattern due to a combination of internal and external factors [2] - Small and medium-sized growth stocks are performing relatively well, benefiting from ample liquidity and technology narratives [2] - Key areas to focus on include mergers and acquisitions, sectors with policy support, and industries less affected by tariffs, such as the AI industry chain and export chains with low exposure to the US [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities indicates that the food and beverage sector's Q1 reports maintain high quality, with overall stability since April [3] - The government aims to boost consumption as a primary driver of economic growth, with a comprehensive plan to guide consumption recovery [3] - Four key segments are highlighted: 1) Baijiu with stable performance from leading companies, 2) Beer with a rebound in sales, 3) Restaurant chains with strong product channel layouts, and 4) High demand for leisure snacks and health-focused products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

同时，说明公司控股股东或者受控股股东、实际控制人支配的股东持有公司的股份存在质押的具体情 况，及其对公司控制权和业务经营的影响，是否构成《境内企业境外发行证券和上市管理试行办法》第 八条规定的境外上市禁止性情形。 智通财经APP获悉，5月30日，中国证监会公布境外发行上市备案补充材料要求公示(2025年5月23日— 2025年5月29日)。证监会要求三只松鼠补充说明公司及下属公司经营范围涉及出版物零售、广告设计及 代理、酒类经营的具体情况，是否实际开展并取得必要的资质许可，经营范围及实际业务经营是否涉及 限制或禁止外商投资领域，本次发行上市前后是否持续符合外商投资准入政策要求。据港交所4月25日 披露，三只松鼠递表港交所，中信证券为其独家保荐人。 说明公司及下属公司是否涉及开发、运营网站、小程序、APP、公众号等产品，是否涉及向第三方提供 信息内容，提供信息内容的类型以及信息内容安全保护措施；同时说明收集及储存的用户信息规模、数 据收集使用情况，上市前后个人信息保护和数据安全的安排或措施。 财务方面，于2022年度、2023年度、2024年度，三只松鼠收入分别约为72.93亿元、71.15亿元、106.22 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rising popularity of konjac products, particularly among young consumers, with significant growth in online engagement and sales expected in 2024 compared to 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, the total engagement for "konjac" on platforms like Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, and Kuaishou increased by 191% compared to 2023, with Q1 2025 engagement reaching about 60% of the total for 2023 [1]. - The konjac snack "Konjac Shuang" has become a major revenue driver for companies like Weilong, contributing to a 59.1% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 3.37 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 53.79% of total revenue [4]. - Salted Snack Company reported a revenue of 838 million yuan from konjac products in 2024, a 76.09% increase, with konjac jelly pudding contributing 301 million yuan, up 39.1% [5]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Brands like Akwan Foods and Wild Man Diary are innovating by transforming konjac into noodles, dumplings, and rice noodles, thus redefining consumer perceptions of traditional staples [6][8]. - Akwan Foods launched convenient konjac cold noodles and established a sub-brand "Mo Xiaobao" in 2024, while Wild Man Diary's konjac products accounted for about 85% of its 300 million yuan sales in 2024 [8]. Group 3: Consumer Demand - The low-calorie, low-fat, and high-fiber characteristics of konjac align with young consumers' dietary preferences for weight loss, reducing market education costs [7]. - The popularity of "Konjac Shuang" is attributed to its taste and convenience, with consumers appreciating its low-calorie profile compared to traditional snacks [24][28]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The konjac market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Weilong and Salted Snack Company leading the way, holding market shares of 42% and 13% respectively in 2024 [19]. - The introduction of new flavors and product variations by brands is enhancing consumer choice and driving growth in the konjac snack segment [27]. Group 5: Pricing Trends - The price of konjac has doubled in 2024, reaching over 7 yuan per kilogram, driven by reduced supply from major production areas and increased demand from snack and meal replacement sectors [35].

Core Viewpoint - Lulumei has successfully transformed the niche fruit of green plums into a significant industry, achieving over 1.6 billion yuan in annual revenue and contributing to local agricultural development and farmer income [3][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2009, Lulumei started as a small enterprise in Wuhu, Anhui, focusing on deep processing of green plums, which were previously underappreciated [4]. - The company has grown to become a major player in the leisure snack industry, with plans for an IPO to further expand its operations [3][4]. Market Context - The Chinese leisure snack market has seen continuous growth, increasing from 410 billion yuan in 2010 to 1,165.4 billion yuan in 2022, with projections to reach 1,237.8 billion yuan by 2027 [3]. - Lulumei's parent company, Lulumei Fruit Garden, submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in April 2023, aiming to capitalize on this growing market [3]. Financial Performance - The latest prospectus indicates projected revenues of 1.174 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan, and 1.616 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 68 million yuan, 99 million yuan, and 148 million yuan [3]. Production and Supply Chain - Approximately 60% of the funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to capacity expansion and supply chain optimization, including projects in Anhui and Guangxi [3]. - The company employs a "five unification" policy with farmers, ensuring stable supply and pricing through unified seed supply, technical training, agricultural input standards, guaranteed purchase prices, and financial services [7]. Agricultural Impact - The green plum industry has become a crucial economic pillar in the Wuhu region, with over 20,000 acres planted, generating an estimated 2 billion yuan in total industry output [9]. - Lulumei has expanded its agricultural network beyond Anhui, promoting green plum cultivation in six cities and fourteen counties, and engaging in international partnerships for plum products [9]. Innovation and Technology - The company has embraced technological innovation, achieving 100% digitalization in its production processes, which enhances efficiency and product quality [6]. - Lulumei's approach combines technology, farmer support, and industry collaboration to drive agricultural transformation and regional economic development [6].