Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved 1. **AI Integrated Machines**: The focus is on the domestic AI integrated machine market, particularly the DeepSeek model, with significant developments expected by 2025 [1][3][30]. 2. **Fertilizer Industry**: The report discusses the phosphate chemical industry, particularly the demand for fertilizers as spring approaches [2][17][30]. 3. **Aviation Industry**: The report highlights the progress in China's large aircraft manufacturing, specifically the C919 and C929 models [4][23][30]. Core Points and Arguments AI Integrated Machines 1. **Market Growth**: The domestic AI integrated machine market is expected to flourish, with multiple companies developing DeepSeek integrated machines, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for application [1][3][30]. 2. **China Mobile's Achievement**: On February 28, China Mobile secured its first overseas deployment of the DeepSeek integrated machine, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth [4][30]. 3. **Industry Collaboration**: At least 20 domestic chip manufacturers have partnered with DeepSeek, indicating a shift towards a domestic AI ecosystem that reduces reliance on foreign technologies [7][30]. Fertilizer Industry 1. **Phosphate Resource Scarcity**: The phosphate rock market faces challenges due to years of unregulated mining, leading to declining quality and increasing scarcity of resources [2][17][30]. 2. **Price Trends**: Fertilizer prices, particularly for monoammonium phosphate and calcium phosphate, have seen significant increases, with monoammonium phosphate rising by 9.74% month-over-month [20][21][30]. 3. **Spring Demand**: As the spring planting season approaches, the demand for fertilizers is expected to rise, with production rates increasing to meet this demand [21][30]. Aviation Industry 1. **C919 Production and Delivery**: China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) has received nearly 1,500 orders for the C919, with production expected to ramp up to 50 units by 2025 [23][25][30]. 2. **Market Value**: The projected market value for the delivery of 9,323 aircraft over the next 20 years is approximately $1.4 trillion, indicating a robust future for the domestic aviation sector [23][25][30]. 3. **Supply Chain Development**: The domestic supply chain for large aircraft is expected to improve as the localization of materials and components increases, enhancing the overall value of the industry [27][29][30]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Macroeconomic Impact on Computing Power**: The decline in computing power is attributed to global economic conditions and underperformance of AI models like GPT-4.5, but the fundamental demand for computing power remains intact [10][12][14][30]. 2. **Emerging Trends in AI**: The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring marginal changes in the computing power industry, as domestic AI development is still in its early stages [13][14][30]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on emerging growth areas and companies within the data center and AI sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities [16][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, due to the intensification of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the energy - chemical sector is trending strongly. However, the upward price space of urea is restricted by policies, so it is expected to move in a range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,817 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,826 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume was 343,555 lots, the open interest was 262,781 lots, an increase of 2,904 lots; the turnover was 1.255 billion yuan, an increase of 753.128 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 73 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 97 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 13 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan. The spread between UR05 - UR09 was 25 yuan, down 14 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, and Shandong Ruixing remained unchanged at 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,350 yuan/ton, and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 30 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan to 1,750 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,860 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions increased by 30 yuan to 1,890 yuan/ton and 1,750 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 90.86%, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 213,940 tons, also unchanged [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89% compared with the previous period (February 11). The main reason for the significant increase in inventory was the reduction of logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival, which led to the stagnation of shipments in most urea factories. After the fourth day of the first lunar month, the partial resumption of road logistics slowed down the inventory increase. Provinces with inventory decreases were Inner Mongolia and Yunnan, while those with inventory increases included Anhui, Gansu, and others [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 02 日 尿素：短期偏强 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,847 | 1,836 | 1 1 13099 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,838 | 1,836 | 2 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 136,541 | 123,442 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 259,877 | 251,601 | 8276 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 0 | 5,958 | -5958 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 501,871 | 453,361 | 48510 | | | ...

南华期货尿素产业周报 ——地缘提振 2026/3/1 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 美伊战争突然爆发，对尿素市场的冲击可以概括为"全球供给坍塌"与"国内情绪引爆"的叠加效应。从 全球看，战争的直接影响是供应端的"硬缺口"。伊朗本土约900万吨的尿素产能面临停产风险，更致命的 是，若战事波及霍尔木兹海峡，占全球贸易量30%以上的中东尿素出口通道将被切断。这种"产能停摆+物流 封锁"的双重打击，将直接推高国际尿素价格中枢。对国内而言，这是一场"情绪"与"现实"的共振。虽 然出口受政策管制，但在国际化肥价格飙升的背景下，强烈的看涨预期会迅速传导至国内市场，很可能驱动 价格提前冲高。而恰好此时国内正值春耕备耕旺季，刚需正在落地，市场本身就处于供需紧平衡状态。地缘 风险相当于给这个本就偏强的格局加了一把火，让上涨节奏提前、幅度放大。总的来说，战争风险将成为打 破当前国内尿素弱平衡的关键变量，大概率催化出一轮由国际成本推高和国内情绪亢奋共同驱动的行情。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 sou ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is narrowing. The support comes from the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival and the gradual realization of this expectation. However, the policy pressure is increasing as the spot guidance price of urea policy has not been raised from April to June, which restricts the upside space of the unilateral price [2]. - The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1,930 yuan/ton, mainly due to spot policy pressure and warehouse receipt registration costs. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, supported by the strong expectation of agricultural demand in the peak season of 2026 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from February 19 - February 25, 2026, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,500 tons or 1.29%. There were no enterprise device shutdowns or restarts during the period. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.52 - 1.53 million tons, with little change from this period. In the next cycle, there are no planned device shutdowns, and 1 - 2 shutdown enterprises' devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. The expected new capacity in 2026 is 6.51 million tons [22]. - Production Profit and Output: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high [25]. - Cost: The raw material prices are stabilizing, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is rising. For example, in the Shanxi region, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants have been relatively stable in recent days [28]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened [41]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonally, the agricultural demand is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. Different regions have different fertilizer - using seasons based on their main crops [47][50]. - Industrial Demand: - Compound Fertilizer: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizer in China show certain trends. The capacity utilization rate is presented in a weekly chart, and the cost, profit, and inventory also have corresponding data trends [54]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in China are provided. The production profit and market price have their own trends, and the output and capacity utilization rate are also shown in relevant charts [59]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand support from the real estate market for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports are resilient. Data on the export volume of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, wood - oriented particleboard, and real estate construction and completion areas are presented [62]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89%. The main reason was the reduction of logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival. Next week, the inventory of domestic urea sample enterprises is expected to be around 1.08 million tons, a slight decrease [69]. - Port Inventory: As of February 26, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 174,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons or 4.82%. During the holiday, logistics transportation was restricted, and with the recovery of transportation, some ports had a slight increase in inventory [69]. Valuation - The report provides multiple charts and data on urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices to show the price and spread trends of urea [5][9][14][18].

逢高空配维持 尿素周报 2026/02/28 张正华 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 资料来源：WIND、五矿期货研究中心 因子评估&策略 | 图2：因子评估表 因素 | 核心变量 | 方向预测 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 开工率方面：尿素开工冬季检修在即，预期边际收紧 | 中性偏空 | | | 贸易流方面：当前印度需求较好，出口政策仍有利多预期 | | | 需求 | 开工率方面：下游开工波幅不大，但年初淡季在即 | 中性 | | 库存 | 港库方面：港口微累，但边际影响较小 | 中性偏多 | | | 厂库方面：高位去库，斜率较快 | | | 成本 | 煤炭方面：动力煤补库不及预期开始高位下跌 | 中性 | | | 油气方面：维持震荡，预计向上空间有限 | | | 上轮观点 | 我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the proactive measures taken by the Chinese government and industry stakeholders to ensure the supply and price stability of fertilizers during the critical spring farming season of 2026, amidst rising fertilizer prices driven by various factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic fertilizer market is experiencing a seasonal price increase, with urea prices rising by 3.25% and compound fertilizer prices increasing by 12.6% from late December 2025 to early February 2026 [2]. - The price of urea and potassium sulfate compound fertilizers has been on an upward trend since the second half of 2025, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% [2]. - The demand for fertilizers is expected to peak in March 2026, coinciding with the spring sowing season, leading to concentrated purchasing activity [5]. Group 2: Government and Industry Response - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to strengthen the supply and price stability of fertilizers, involving multiple government departments [3]. - Industry associations are actively responding to government directives, with initiatives to improve direct supply connections between potassium fertilizer suppliers and compound fertilizer producers [3]. - Major fertilizer producers have committed to maintaining stable prices and ensuring sufficient market supply, avoiding practices that disrupt market order [5]. Group 3: Cost Factors and Supply Chain - Rising raw material costs, particularly sulfur, are identified as a significant factor contributing to the increase in fertilizer prices [4]. - The fertilizer market is expected to remain robust due to sustained high raw material prices and insufficient inventory for production needs in 2026 [4]. - The overall market order has improved significantly, with past issues of counterfeit fertilizers largely resolved, although some irregularities persist in e-commerce channels [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The fertilizer industry is moving towards a new phase of legal regulation, with plans for legislative measures to enhance the management and quality of fertilizers [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for improving agricultural production capacity and efficiency, with a focus on establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for fertilizers [7].

Core Insights - Morocco has become the largest fertilizer supplier to the EU by 2025, significantly enhancing its strategic position in the European market [1] - The EU's restructuring of supply chains post-Russia-Ukraine conflict has benefited Morocco, making it an important diversified supplier for Europe [1] Fertilizer Market - By 2025, Morocco's market share in EU fertilizer imports is projected to reach 19%, surpassing Russia's 12.8% [1] - Morocco's advantages include phosphate resources, geographical location, a free trade agreement with the EU, and a stable logistics system [1] Agricultural Exports - In 2024, Morocco is expected to become the largest vegetable supplier to the EU, with vegetable exports exceeding 1 million tons and generating approximately $2 billion in revenue, a 7% increase year-on-year [1] Export Structure - The total import value from Morocco to the EU is projected to reach $29.8 billion in 2024, with the export structure showing diversification [1] - Key sectors include automobiles (28%), machinery (24.6%), agricultural products (11.8%), and textiles (11.6%), indicating a shift from traditional agricultural exports to more industrial and high-value products [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：农需支撑 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，午后翻红。由于农业需求相对旺盛，现货报价仍以稳 定为主，但交投氛围弱。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围 多在 1780-1810 元/吨。基本面来看，上游工厂装置无停产，后续依然有工厂复 产计划，以 21 万吨日产稳定为主。春耕旺季期间，暂无规模性长期检修计划。 下游复工复产预计在下周元宵节后，本期库存受假期发运及下游放假的影响， 累库 10%以上，但正值农耕旺季，农需拿货提供支撑，后续累库速度将逐渐放 缓，转入去库轨道。本期数据下游复合肥开工负荷提升至 33.41%，环比上周提 高 8.91%，预计下周元宵节后，将大幅提升开工负荷。农需助力春耕，目前农 业需求端备战小麦返青追肥，拿货情 ...

Group 1: Economic Activity and Production - Jining's Yanzhou District is actively engaging in production across various sectors to achieve a strong start in the first quarter, aiming for accelerated economic development [1] - Companies like Yileite (Jining) High-end Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Wolmei Fertilizer Co., Ltd. have resumed full operations, with Yileite achieving full-load production and Wolmei securing orders exceeding 12,000 tons [1] - Kaimila Tiancheng Wanfeng Chemical Co., Ltd. has ensured production continuity by preparing raw materials in advance and maintaining operations during the holiday period [1] Group 2: Government Support and Services - Yanzhou District is providing proactive services to enterprises, ensuring each key enterprise has dedicated personnel to address issues promptly [2] - Local authorities are visiting businesses to resolve challenges and implement policies that facilitate production [2] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Development - The agricultural sector in Yanzhou is thriving, with companies like Yingyuan Food leading the way in a fully integrated industrial chain from breeding to processing [2] - Yingyuan Food has positively impacted over 4,200 farmers, increasing their average annual income by approximately 70,000 yuan, while also creating over 1,000 jobs [2] Group 4: Specialty Products and Market Expansion - The specialty agricultural products, such as those from Yandian Town, are gaining popularity, with innovative products like peanut chili sauce being well-received at local markets [3] - Yandian Town has established an integrated base for planting and processing, exploring new market opportunities through a collaborative model involving local communities and enterprises [3]