1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view indicates that the short - term PVC has no obvious driving force and is expected to fluctuate mainly, with a trading strategy of "Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: None" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, with high overall supply, weak domestic and foreign demand, and inventory accumulation pressure. Meanwhile, the profit of two - process PVC has increased, but the export has declined [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has made narrow adjustments, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the production capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises has risen. The maintenance loss has also increased [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rates of PVC pipe and profile enterprises have increased to some extent, and the capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable. However, the current export has declined [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of October 9, the inventory - production days of Chinese PVC production enterprises' factory warehouses have increased, and the social inventory has also increased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of two - process PVC have increased this week. The cost of the calcium carbide method has decreased, and the comprehensive profit loss of the ethylene method has improved [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: After the holiday, the domestic PVC market has declined weakly, with the spot market price in the East China region being weakly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [6] - **Price Spread**: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the maintenance, the output in the Northwest region has rebounded [37] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory has been destocked, while the social inventory has been accumulated. Factories in various regions have destocked [47][57] - **Downstream Start - up**: The average downstream start - up rate, the start - up rates of pipes and profiles have fluctuated [73] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the export volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure [81][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - After the holiday, polyolefins experienced significant inventory accumulation, leading to price pressure and a weak trend. The decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply is expected to increase significantly, while the downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is also weakening. For PP, it is affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, with a supply increase expected and weak demand, and the cost support is also weak [3]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - hedge L, expect PP to fluctuate weakly; conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; and short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 7037 yuan/ton (-40), and that of the PP main contract was 6722 yuan/ton (-23). The LL spot price in North China was 7000 yuan/ton (+0), in East China was 7100 yuan/ton (-10), and the PP spot price in East China was 6670 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China was -37 yuan/ton (+40), in East China was 73 yuan/ton (+10), and the PP basis in East China was -42 yuan/ton (-47) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate was 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit was -127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit was -99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit was 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit was -547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit was 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 35.6% (+2.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.9% (+0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.3% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers accumulated significantly. The decline in crude oil weakened the cost support, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure. The supply is expected to increase with the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE plant and the restart of previously shut - down plants, along with concentrated arrivals of imported resources. The downstream demand in October was less than expected, and the cost support was weakened due to the OPEC+ production increase [3]. - **PP**: After the holiday, the decline of PP was obvious, affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restarted, and the PDH plant profit recovered. The demand was less than expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the cost support was weak [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L; expect PP to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - commodity**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined to the lowest level this year, and the valuation pressure has decreased. However, the supply - side maintenance volume is small, and the output is at a historical high. With multiple new devices to be tested in the short term, domestic downstream demand is weak, and export expectations are poor in the fourth quarter. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is poor after the new device is put into production, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost - profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2890 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton year - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 730 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - month. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped significantly from the high, while the profit of ethylene production has improved slightly, and the overall valuation support has strengthened [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, up 5.5% year - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, up 6.2% year - on - month; the ethylene method is 81.9%, up 3.8% year - on - month. The maintenance volume increased slightly last month, but new devices released production, and the supply pressure actually increased. This month, the maintenance intensity is expected to decrease, and two new devices are planned to be tested and put into production this year, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the year - on - year growth rate of export volume in August was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and it was difficult to drive the destocking of domestic inventory. The Indian anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented from October to November, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further. The start - up of the three major downstream industries has rebounded slightly, but the overall downstream load is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 38.4 tons, up 6.8 tons year - on - month; the social inventory is 103.6 tons, up 11.8 tons year - on - month; the overall inventory is 142 tons, up 18.6 tons year - on - month; the warehouse receipts continue to rise. Currently in the inventory accumulation cycle, inventory accumulation will continue without unexpected performance at the export end or obvious upstream production cuts [11]. - **Summary**: Last month, the trading was mainly based on the weak fundamentals of PVC. There was a rebound in the middle of the month driven by the sentiment of the building materials and black sectors, but it was difficult to support the weak pattern of significant inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is poor after the new devices are put into production, and it is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old devices to digest the domestic excess capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, and the prices of PVC in the East China SG - 5 market, as well as the trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts, to show the market price and trading situation of PVC [15][19][24][26]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has dropped to a historical low, and the valuation pressure has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory and social inventory of PVC have both increased year - on - month, and the overall inventory is in the accumulation cycle. The warehouse receipts are also rising [11]. The report also provides multiple charts to show the inventory changes of PVC in different production methods and the overall inventory situation [31][32][34][38]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have risen and then fallen, semi - coke prices have stabilized and rebounded, caustic soda prices have declined, and ethylene prices have fallen [49][52]. The report provides multiple charts to show the price and inventory changes of calcium carbide, semi - coke, caustic soda, and ethylene [50][53][56]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity will be put into production throughout the year [61][66]. Although the average load of PVC decreased in September, the output was difficult to reduce due to the new device production [69]. The report also provides charts to show the historical trend of PVC capacity, the quarterly production capacity of new devices, and the production start - up and weekly output of PVC [62][64][75]. 6. Demand Side - The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded, but it is still weak in the real estate downturn cycle and difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The export volume in August increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was weaker than that in the first half of the year, and the export growth rate is expected to decline further after the implementation of the Indian anti - dumping policy [11][78]. The report provides multiple charts to show the start - up of downstream industries, export volume, pre - sale volume, and the situation of the real estate market [78][86][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for L and PP [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the accumulation of petrochemical inventory, new device production, and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply increases significantly, while the demand improvement is limited, and the cost - side support weakens. For PP, the supply is restricted by high raw material prices and maintenance, the demand recovery is slow, and the cost support is weak. Overall, the weak demand restricts the upward space of polyolefins, and PP's profit level also limits its downward space [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7077 yuan/ton (-76), and that of the PP main contract is 6745 yuan/ton (-107). LL North China spot is 7000 yuan/ton (-120), LL East China spot is 7140 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -77 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (+76), and PP East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (+107) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 247.7 yuan/ton (+72.5), PP oil - based production profit is -382.3 yuan/ton (+72.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is -224.0 yuan/ton (+40.0) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -41.5 yuan/ton (-0.1), PP import profit is -517.2 yuan/ton (-0.1), and PP export profit is 13.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 35.6% (+2.8%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 52.9% (+0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.3% (+0.4%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the petrochemical inventory accumulates significantly. The supply pressure from new device production and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend. The supply increases due to the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the resumption of previous maintenance devices, and concentrated arrival of imported resources. In October, the demand in the "Silver October" period has no obvious improvement, the procurement rhythm is slow, and the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The cost - side support weakens due to OPEC+ increasing oil production [2]. - **PP**: The supply is restricted by high propylene prices, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises decreases. In October, a 400,000 - ton/year device in Guangxi is expected to be put into production, but the return of some devices may be blocked. The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season fails to meet expectations, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the cost support is weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/09/2 5 820 7080 7200 9515 7350 830 785 -46 7169 -80 62 12736 2025/09/2 6 815 7080 7200 9500 7350 830 785 -46 7159 -80 59 12736 2025/09/2 9 815 7100 7215 9500 7350 830 785 -19 7181 -80 59 12736 2025/09/3 0 805 7080 7215 9500 7350 830 774 -19 7153 -80 59 12736 2025/10/0 9 805 7025 7200 9525 7350 830 774 -19 7077 -40 59 12729 日度变化 0 -55 -15 25 0 0 0 0 -76 40 0 -7 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游两油去库，煤化工去库，社会库存持平，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09 基差华北-110左右，华东-50， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - PVC supply - demand is weak, but there is cost support. The supply pressure is expected to intensify in October as new follow - up maintenance devices are few, previous shutdown devices restart, and new capacity may be put into production. Downstream demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market is affected by the Indian anti - dumping tax. Inventory is likely to remain at a high level, which is the main source of price pressure. However, due to the deep loss of the calcium carbide process and the contraction of chlor - alkali profits, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise, providing some support to the price. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 4719 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4769 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; trading volume was 708,041 lots, up 116,303 lots; open interest was 1,144,046 lots, up 70,687 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 128,365 lots, down 15,518 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4715 yuan/ton, down 26.15 yuan. In the South China region, ethylene - based PVC was 4995 yuan/ton, unchanged; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4776.88 yuan/ton, down 34.38 yuan. The CIF price in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China was 2751.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 513 US dollars/ton, unchanged; VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.97%, up 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.13%, up 2.8 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.75%, up 1.62 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 53.77 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; in the East China region, it was 48.84 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.93 million tons, down 0.2 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.51%, up 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.17%, up 0.46 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 15.07%, up 0.33 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, up 2.01% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 1.43% to 47.76%, with the pipe operating rate up 1.3% to 40.43% and the profile operating rate down 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, PVC social inventory was 97.13 million tons, up 1.84% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process rose to 5312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the future upward momentum may mainly come from macro - level support. The domestic macro - environment is likely to improve, and there is also a possibility of improvement in the international macro - environment [8][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Situation Domestic - As of the end of August 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9] - In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat [12] - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. New commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. Real estate development enterprise funds in place were 643.18 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [14] - In August 2025, macro - economic data showed no significant improvement, and demand remained weak. Except for the improvement in PPI, other economic indicators were weak. However, the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, approaching the 50% boom - bust line, indicating possible improvement in September's macro - economic data [16][17] International - In August 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.9%. In September 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.2%. Current inflation in Europe and the US has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost economic growth [18] - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. The Eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [20] - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy, but the US economy remains resilient. In September, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.1%, and the service PMI decreased by 2 percentage points to 50% [23] - During the National Day, the US government shut down again, increasing market concerns. Wall Street analysts pointed out that this may lead to further deterioration of the US job market. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.1% [25] 2. Fundamentals PE - In September 2025, PE production and capacity utilization declined. Capacity utilization was 80.47%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous period, and production was 2.7079 million tons, a decrease of 4.22 percentage points from the previous period. The decrease was mainly due to the shutdown of new devices [27] - In September, the peak consumption season for PE arrived, and demand increased. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 11.3% month - on - month, and the average start - up rate of packaging film was 51.48%, an increase of 2.04% month - on - month [30] - In September, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE decreased. At the end of the month, the inventory was 524,500 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons month - on - month and 54,500 tons year - on - year [31] - In September, the PE fundamentals improved. Supply decreased while demand continued to pick up, leading to a decrease in social inventory and stronger support for PE prices [36] PP - In September 2025, China's PP production was 3.3446 million tons, a decrease of 159,900 tons from August, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% and a year - on - year increase of 13.73%. Production decreased significantly due to equipment failures and cost reasons [37] - In September, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 51.10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. Although the start - up rates of some industries increased, the demand for modified PP and PP pipes declined significantly year - on - year [38][40] - At the end of September 2025, the inventory of PP producers was 520,300 tons, a decrease of 3.39% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of PP traders was 187,200 tons, an increase of 1.90% from the end of the previous month [43] - In September, PP also showed a relatively good situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand [46] 3. Market Outlook - For PE in October 2025, domestic supply will face pressure from the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices. Import volume will increase under the condition of loose overseas supply. Demand growth is slower than in previous years, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation after the National Day holiday, so PE prices may decline after the holiday [8] - For PP in October 2025, the planned maintenance loss is expected to increase by 0.2%. The 400,000 - ton/year PP plant of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation, and production is expected to increase by 3.54% month - on - month to 3.463 million tons. Although it is the peak demand season, supply still exceeds demand. After the National Day holiday, inventory consumption is still a concern, and PP prices are likely to remain weak [8]

Group 1 - Since Q4 2021, domestic housing prices have shown a turning point, leading to a shift in market expectations for the real estate sector, with continuous declines in housing transaction data and shrinking terminal demand for PVC, resulting in a downward price trend [1] - Current PVC prices are low, with domestic calcium carbide method PVC losing 750 CNY/ton and ethylene method PVC losing 650 CNY/ton, indicating deep industry losses. However, the production profit from caustic soda is 330 CNY/ton, allowing calcium carbide method PVC enterprises to maintain production [1] - As of September 26, the domestic PVC production enterprise operating rate was 78.97%, up 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly output at 479,600 tons [1] Group 2 - PVC inventory continues to rise due to high supply, with pre-holiday inventory at 1.328 million tons, a 2.11% increase, marking 13 consecutive weeks of accumulation. Social inventory sample data shows 971,300 tons, a 16.23% year-on-year increase, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1] - The operating rates for domestic pipe and profile industries are around 40%. Real estate investment, new construction area, completed area, and sales area in August showed year-on-year declines of -12.9%, -19.5%, -4.7%, and -17%, respectively, leading to insufficient new orders and a weekly demand of around 450,000 tons for PVC [1] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties by India on PVC imports from China has impacted exports, with duties ranging from 122 to 232 USD/ton for five years, although the market had anticipated this, leading to a "rush to export" in July and August [2] - The short-term supply-demand imbalance for PVC is unlikely to change, with ample domestic production capacity and high inventory levels. The downward trend in the real estate sector and the impact of India's anti-dumping duties on exports suggest a continued weak price outlook for PVC [3] - However, there are potential short-term rebound demands for PVC due to historical low prices, cost support, potential supply issues with upstream calcium carbide as winter approaches, and possible policy stimuli towards the end of the year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - **25 - 10 - 09**: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - **25 - 10 - 09**: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - **25 - 10 - 09**: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - **25 - 10 - 09**: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stable with slight declines, with mainstream market fluctuations between 0-10 yuan/ton, and low trading activity due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4670-4790 yuan/ton, South China at 4760-4830 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4540-4640 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4650-4730 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 76.11%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points week-on-week; the calcium carbide method operates at 76.97% (up 0.06 percentage points), while the ethylene method operates at 74.12% (up 2.12 percentage points) [2] - As of September 25, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises have increased by 2.91% to 5.3 days, indicating a rise in factory inventory levels amid weak market demand [2] PVC Market Outlook - As the holiday approaches, the PVC market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances remaining challenging to resolve in Q3, leading to a general weakening of both futures and spot prices [3] - High production levels continue to create an oversupply situation, while demand has not shown significant improvement during the peak season, with a notable contraction in profile demand [3] - The upstream holding willingness is decreasing, but export activities are providing some relief from the oversupply pressure; cost support remains from rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices [3]