1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand with high valuations. Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, but the valuation pressure is significant. In the short term, there is an expectation of supply reduction due to anti - involution and a rebound in the black building materials sector, but there is a risk of a sharp decline after the sentiment fades. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by large - scale capacity growth and continuous decline in real estate demand. It needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is at 585 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a high point for the year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound, but the valuation support is currently weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, a 0.5% decrease, and the ethylene method is 70.3%, a 1.7% decrease. The supply load decreased last week due to the maintenance of several enterprises, and it is expected to recover next week. There were more maintenance operations in July than in June, but the supply pressure remains high, and the pressure of new device production in the third quarter is large [11]. - **Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with an expectation of pre - tariff export rush. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have rebounded this week. The overall downstream load is 41.9%, a 1.8% increase from the previous period, but still weak compared to the same period last year. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 795,000 tons, a 99,000 - ton increase from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 683,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.04 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. In the future, under the pattern of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the supply - demand situation will turn to inventory accumulation, and it is necessary to observe whether the export is better than expected [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure. The maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices will be put into production. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and still in the off - season. The cost support is weakening. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by capacity growth and real - estate demand decline. Overall, the fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent export can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot markets, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 9 - 1 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure [37]. - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium - carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [31][34][36]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices are falling and inventory is accumulating. The report presents charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Lanzhou semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong, liquid chlorine price in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][48]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including several enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [57][62]. - The report shows charts of PVC historical capacity trends, 2025 PVC production capacity, and raw materials consumed by 2025 PVC production [58][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The export volume and pre - sales volume have also increased to some extent. India's anti - dumping policy extension may lead to an export rush at the end of the rainy season [11]. - The report presents charts of PVC downstream operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year from 2021 to 2025 [73][81][86].

Group 1 - The trading variety is polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1] - The trading unit is tons [1] - The quotation unit is in Chinese Yuan (RMB) per ton [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation is 1 RMB per ton [1] - The price limit for daily trading is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [1] - The contract months available for trading are from January to December [1] Group 3 - Trading hours are from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM, along with other specified trading times [1] - The last trading day is the last trading day of the month prior to the contract month [1] - The delivery date coincides with the last trading day [1] Group 4 - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value [1] - The delivery method is cash settlement [1] - The trading code is V followed by the contract month F [1] Group 5 - The exchange for trading is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 5,151 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week-on-week to 77.59%. The downstream start - up rate decreased by 1% week - on - week to 40.11%, with the pipe start - up rate down 3.92% week - on - week to 33.75% and the profile start - up rate stable at 34.5%. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons. In July, domestic PVC maintenance was gradually implemented. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise week - on - week. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Dagu are expected to be put into production this week, increasing the medium - and long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices will restart this week, increasing the commodity volume and pressuring calcium carbide prices; the ethylene market has sufficient available resources, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The market sentiment for the previous supply - side policy benefits has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support near 5,090 and the resistance near 5,300 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan; the trading volume was 1,806,028 lots, a decrease of 44,699 lots; the open interest was 865,052 lots, a decrease of 209 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 760,429 lots, an increase of 15,577 lots; the sell order volume was 745,036 lots, an increase of 2,126 lots; the net buy order volume was 15,393 lots, an increase of 13,451 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,088.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,075.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,598.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in the northwestern region, it was 2,368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 450 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 77.59%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.95%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was not clearly presented. The total social inventory of PVC was 79.71 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons. The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region was 36.41 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, an increase of 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.85%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.47%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.12%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.1%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 5,050 to 5,120 yuan/ton. From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. As of July 17th, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core Viewpoints - Policy promotes the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and the macro - level has a certain boost to the polyolefin market. New device overhauls in production enterprises ease some supply - demand pressure, but some devices restart. PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. Crude oil is weakly sorted, propane prices continue to be weak, cost - side support is weak. Downstream demand remains weak in the seasonal consumption off - season, and new order volume is limited. In the short - term future, there are no new overhaul plans, and supply is expected to increase. With weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7290元/吨（+74），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（+78），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（+80），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+50），LL华北基差为 - 90元/吨（+6），LL华东基差为 - 100元/吨（ - 74），PP华东基差为29元/吨（ - 28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.2% (+0.4%), PP operating rate is 77.3% (+0.7%). PE oil - based production profit is 74.8 yuan/ton (+14.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 285.2 yuan/ton (+14.8), PDH - based PP production profit is 315.8 yuan/ton (+14.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 142.0 yuan/ton (-4.8), PP import profit is - 694.2 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP export profit is 36.8 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.5% (-0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.4% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. In the future, with weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2]

Core Insights - The Guangdong Jieyang Dongyue Chemical 200,000 tons/year mixed waste plastic resource utilization demonstration project has successfully completed its trial production, marking a significant advancement in the chemical recycling of waste plastics [1][2] - The project utilizes an innovative "one-step" process for chemical recovery, which eliminates the need for complex sorting of low-value mixed waste plastics, achieving a product recovery rate of over 92% [1][2] Group 1 - The project is the world's first continuous and large-scale chemical recycling project for waste plastics, successfully passing industrial verification [1] - The "one-step" process allows for direct conversion of mixed waste plastics into high-value chemical raw materials, significantly reducing sorting costs [1] - When international crude oil prices are above $45 per barrel, the cost of producing basic chemical raw materials from waste plastics is comparable to that of using crude oil [1] Group 2 - The technology can replace approximately 100 million to 150 million tons of crude oil annually when processing 50 million tons of waste plastics, leading to a reduction of about 250 million tons of CO2 emissions [2] - The project aims to transform the petrochemical industry from reliance on crude oil to a model based on waste plastic resource recycling [2] - The long-term goal includes the establishment of a 3 million tons/year industrial base, creating a global hub for green circular economy in the chemical industry [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market has shown an emotional rebound, but there is a need to beware of callback risks. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week, the polyethylene production increased slightly. Next week, many devices are expected to resume production after maintenance, and the production may continue to increase. The import volume remained stable, and the main reason for the stable import was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand was worse than expected this week, and there was a slight inventory accumulation instead of the expected de - stocking. If the demand improves next week, there may be a slight de - stocking [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This week's production was 60.91 million tons, a slight increase from last week's 60.59 million tons. Next week, it is expected to reach 62.16 million tons, and the week after next, 62.95 million tons [5]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume was 28.89 million tons this week, the same as last week, and is expected to remain the same in the next two weeks. The export volume was 2.50 million tons this week, unchanged from last week and expected to remain so [5]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Crude oil prices were in a shock, with this week's price at 69.52, down 0.84 from last week's 70.36. Coal prices showed a weakening trend, rising from 623 last week to 630 this week [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of oil - based PE decreased from 8224 last week to 8159 this week, while the cost of coal - based PE remained unchanged at 6395 [6]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end is expected to strengthen first and then weaken next week. The profit of coal - based PE weakened, with this week's profit at 395, down 80 from last week's 475. The import profit of LL weakened, with this week's profit at - 489, down 39 from last week's - 449 [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the total inventory was 106.59 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from last week. It is expected to be 99.52 million tons next week and 97.58 million tons the week after next [5]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory increased from 49.31 million tons last week to 52.93 million tons this week. Among them, the inventory of "Two - Oil" enterprises increased from 40.00 million tons to 42.90 million tons, and the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises increased from 9.31 million tons to 10.03 million tons [5]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: The mid - stream inventory increased from 51.75 million tons last week to 53.66 million tons this week [5]. 3.2.4 Upstream, Mid - stream and Downstream Views - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance devices have started to resume production. Currently, upstream supplies are relatively sufficient, and upstream inventory has increased month - on - month, so there is no large - scale price increase for now. However, the spot - futures arbitrage transactions are relatively good [7]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream shipment situation has deteriorated. The recent price fluctuations have led to a decline in spot transactions to the downstream [7]. - **Downstream**: The continuity of downstream replenishment is poor. This week, the transactions deteriorated, and the replenishment willingness continued to decline. However, after the price increase on Friday night, the downstream's willingness to purchase slightly increased [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week. The basis in North China increased from - 70 last week to - 30 this week, while the basis in South China weakened from 110 last week to 80 this week [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and weakened. The 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 36 last week to 23 this week, and the 9 - 1 month spread decreased from 13 last week to - 27 this week [6]. - **Variety Spread**: The HD - LL spread in North China increased from 260 last week to 270 this week, and the LD - LL spread in North China increased from 1880 last week to 2150 this week. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene market rebounded driven by market sentiment, but there is a need to guard against callback risks [1]. - The production volume this week met expectations, with no new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production volume may increase slightly. - The cost side fluctuated this week, and it is expected to change little next week. PP prices fluctuated, and production profits are expected to rebound first and then continue to weaken. - The basis and inter - month spreads of polypropylene fluctuated, and the spreads between varieties and on the disk also showed different trends. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit earlier. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - **Production Volume**: This week's production volume was 77.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons. In the next two weeks, production volume may increase slightly as device maintenance decreases [6]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: This week, the maintenance loss volume was 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 million tons [6]. - **Import and Export**: The weekly average import volume was 7.50 million tons, and the export volume was 3.75 million tons, both remaining unchanged from last week. In May, exports were 31.03 million tons, and imports were 25.27 million tons, meeting expectations [6]. Demand - **Apparent Demand**: This week's apparent demand was 83.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.64 million tons. Next week, the seasonal expected apparent demand is about 81 million tons [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis showed an overall oscillating trend, with limited basis opportunities. The 09 + 40 yuan/ton basis quote was around in the spot market [6][54]. Inter - month Spread - The inter - month spread oscillated and weakened. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 17 to 8 [9]. Variety Spread - The spreads between different polypropylene varieties, such as fiber -拉丝, copolymer -拉丝, etc., showed different trends. The narrow spread between pellets and powders provided some support for pellet prices [9]. Disk Spread - The LL - PP spread oscillated this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit earlier [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Supply**: In the future, as device maintenance decreases, production volume may increase slightly. - **Demand**: Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 81 million tons according to the seasonal pattern. - **Inventory**: This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. - **Cost**: The cost side fluctuated this week, and it is expected to change little next week. - **Profit**: PP production profits are expected to rebound first and then continue to weaken. - **Strategy**: For the cross - variety strategy, the multi - PP and short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit. For the unilateral strategy, beware of callback risks. For the option strategy, buy put options [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - The polyolefin market continues fundamental trading, with weak and stable prices. During the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization decreases, and new capacity continues to be released, so the overall supply maintains an increasing trend. Enterprises' inventory accumulates, and the destocking rate is slow. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, the terminal operating rate remains low, and the overall operating rate changes little. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and there is little hope for improvement in the short term. International oil prices and propane prices continue to be weak, and are expected to remain weak, with weak cost support, and PDH - made PP profit remains slightly profitable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-11），LL华东基差为 - 25元/吨（-31），PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）；PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为 - 208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润为301.8元/吨（+56.9） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为 - 672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.2%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [13] - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4921 - 4989. [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are neutral. In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. The downstream overall start - up rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, and the ethylene method profit was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, both lower than the historical average. [7] - **Basis**: On July 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 25 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [10] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral. [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish. [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream start - up rates, profits, and costs, and their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [17][18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the futures price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC in June - July 2025, including indicators such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts of PVC from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025. [26][27][29][30][31][32][34][35][37][38] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC from 2018 to 2025. [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC from 2018 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data related to PVC demand. [44][45][47][49][54][55][58] - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 to 2025. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import. [64][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with supply exceeding demand. During the maintenance season of upstream petrochemical plants, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization declines, and new production capacity continues to be released. Overall, the supply side shows an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices and propane prices remain weak and are expected to continue this way, with weak cost support. PDH - made PP maintains a small profit. In the off - season, downstream demand shows no significant improvement, the operating rate remains low, with mainly rigid - demand purchases and insufficient follow - up of terminal orders [2] Summary by Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE oil - based production profit is 172.1 yuan/ton (+88.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 237.9 yuan/ton (+88.6), and PDH - made PP production profit is 192.5 yuan/ton (-38.7). PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report shows the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawing East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawing East China [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 133.0 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit is - 648.1 yuan/ton (-19.7), and PP export profit is 31.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports, but does not provide specific data [72][75][77] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 09 - 01; - Cross - variety: Short coal - based profits [3]