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冠通期货2025年8月宏观经济数据
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 05:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a generally stable and progressive development trend. Production and demand were basically stable, employment and prices were generally stable, and new driving forces were cultivated and strengthened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% year - on - year respectively. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.1% and 9.3% year - on - year respectively, faster than the overall industrial added value [3]. - From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points [3]. - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 40204 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [3]. Services - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services increased by 12.1%, 9.2%, and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, faster than the service industry production index [4]. - From January to August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to July, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 7.4% year - on - year [4]. - In August, the service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The retail sales of urban and rural consumer goods increased by 3.2% and 4.6% year - on - year respectively. The retail sales of goods and catering revenue increased by 3.6% and 2.1% respectively [5]. - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323906 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The national online retail sales were 99828 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The online retail sales of physical goods were 80964 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. - From January to August, the service retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, with relatively fast growth in cultural and sports leisure services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services [5]. Investment - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 4.2%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [6]. - The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 57304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 55015 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [6]. - In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month [6]. Import and Export - In August, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 38744 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 23035 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 15709 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [7]. - From January to August, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 295696 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 176056 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%; imports were 119640 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% [7]. - From January to August, general trade imports and exports increased by 2.2%, accounting for 63.9% of the total import and export volume. Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 5.4%. Private enterprise imports and exports increased by 7.4%, accounting for 57.1% of the total import and export volume, 2.1 percentage points higher than the previous year [7]. Price - In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - From January to August, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [8]. - In August, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, and remained flat month - on - month; the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, and remained flat month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to August, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%. In August, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month of the previous year [8]. - The surveyed unemployment rate of local household registration labor force was 5.4%; the surveyed unemployment rate of non - local household registration labor force was 5.0%, among which the surveyed unemployment rate of non - local agricultural household registration labor force was 4.7% [8]. - The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large - scale cities was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and down 0.1 percentage points from the same month of the previous year. The average weekly working hours of enterprise employees nationwide were 48.5 hours [8].
我国8月经济“成绩单”出炉!
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-15 05:31
9月15日,国家统计局发布2025年8月国民经济数据。 8月社零同比增长3.4%,增速再下降0.3% 8月份,社会消费品零售总额39668亿元,同比增长3.4%;环比增长0.17%。而7月份,社会消费品零售 总额增长3.7%,较6月增速4.8%下降1.1%。 按经营单位所在地分,8月城镇消费品零售额34387亿元,同比增长3.2%;乡村消费品零售额5281亿 元,增长4.6%。 按消费类型分,商品零售额35172亿元,增长3.6%;餐饮收入4496亿元,增长2.1%。基本生活类和部分 升级类商品销售增势良好,限额以上单位日用品类、粮油食品类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售额分别增长 7.7%、5.8%、16.9%。其中,餐饮收入在6月和7月的单月增速仅为0.9%、1.1%之后有所回升,8月增速 回升至2.1%。 分产品看,3D打印设备、新能源汽车、工业机器人产品产量同比分别增长40.4%、22.7%、14.4%。 1—8月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%。8月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.4%,比上月上 升0.1个百分点;企业生产经营活动预期指数为53.7%,上升1.1个百分点。1—7月份,全国规模以上工 ...
5.2%
中国基金报· 2025-09-15 04:19
Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic indicators for August show a stable and improving trend in China's economy, with notable growth in industrial production, service sector, and retail sales, despite challenges in fixed asset investment and external uncertainties [12]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1][4] - From January to August, the industrial added value grew by 6.2% year-on-year [1][4] - The manufacturing sector saw a 5.7% increase, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 8.1% and 9.3% respectively [4] Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [5] - From January to August, the service sector production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Retail Sales - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2][6] - Online retail sales for the first eight months totaled 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year [7] Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [3][8] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.9% year-on-year [3][8] Group 5: Trade and Employment - In August, the total value of goods imports and exports was 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% [9] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [10] Group 6: Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.9% [11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [11]
最新公布!5.2%↑
券商中国· 2025-09-15 03:42
Core Viewpoint - The national economy in August maintained overall stability and progressed steadily under the strong leadership of the central government, with a focus on implementing macroeconomic policies and promoting domestic circulation [1][9]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, with manufacturing growing by 5.7% [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.1% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points respectively [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.4, a slight increase from the previous month, indicating a stable production outlook [2]. Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.5, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index rose to 57.0 [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25% of total retail sales [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [5]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [5]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In August, the total import and export value was 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [6]. - From January to August, general trade grew by 2.2%, accounting for 63.9% of total trade [6]. Group 6: Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [7]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.5 hours [7]. Group 7: Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, with food prices dropping significantly [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [8].
特朗普关税阴霾笼罩,美国企业招聘踩下“刹车”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-15 03:37
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to trade tensions [1] - Manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors are particularly affected, with significant job losses reported [2] - Companies like John Deere have reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with a projected loss of $300 million by 2025, leading to layoffs [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty from fluctuating policies is causing companies to adopt a cautious approach, often leading to hiring freezes [3] - Executives from various sectors express that without stable policies and predictable costs, recruitment and expansion plans are on hold [3] - The Trump administration maintains that tariffs will ultimately boost employment by encouraging businesses to relocate operations back to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Some companies report benefits from tariffs, claiming they help their business, while others highlight the negative impact on hiring and growth [4] - Economic experts argue that the manufacturing sector's struggles are due to demand slowdown and unresolved policy shifts rather than labor supply issues [4]
8月工业生产保持较快增长,高技术制造业表现亮眼
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 03:23
记者 辛圆 国家统计局周一公布数据显示,8月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%,增速较1-7月小幅回落0.5个百分点。1-8月,工业增加值同比增长6.2%。 三大门类来看,8月份,采矿业增加值同比增长5.1%,制造业增长5.7%,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长2.4%。 行业层面看,8月份,41个大类行业中有31个行业增加值保持同比增长。其中,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长9.1%,通用设备制造业增长7.3%,专用设备 制造业增长4.0%,汽车制造业增长8.4%,铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业增长12.0%,电气机械和器材制造业增长9.8%,计算机、通信和其他 电子设备制造业增长9.9%。 王青预计,全年工业生产增速将在5.0%左右,较去年全年回落0.8个百分点。总体上看,接下来经济增长动能将向服务业拉动切换,这是今年经济增长结构 与去年的一个显著区别。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明认为,新质生产力稳步发展、新型政策性金融工具等政策发力显效,有望继续对工业生产形成一定支撑;但下半年内外需放缓 压力较大,经济"供强需弱"矛盾依旧突出,加上综合整治"内卷式"竞争进一步推进,工业生产增速大概率继续有所放 ...
5.2%
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-15 03:18
Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.37% [1][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year [1][5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 326,111 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1][7] - The real estate development investment from January to August was 60,309 billion yuan, showing a decline of 12.9% [1][7] Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, while the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 8.1% and 9.3% respectively [3] - The production index for the service industry increased by 5.6% in August, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [4] Consumer Market - The online retail sales reached 99,828 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% [5] - The retail sales of essential and upgraded consumer goods showed positive growth, with furniture and home appliances retail sales increasing by 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [5] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 12.9% [7] - Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, indicating a focus on enhancing public facilities [7] Trade Performance - The total import and export value in August was 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% [8] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total imports and exports, reflecting their increasing role in the economy [8] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate was stable at 5.3% in August, with a slight seasonal increase [9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.9% [10]
中国1-8月全国固定资产投资增长0.5%,制造业投资增长5.1%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-15 02:37
9月15日周一,国家统计局公布数据显示,2025年1—8月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)326111亿元,同比增长0.5%(按可比口径计算,详 见附注7)。其中,民间固定资产投资同比下降2.3%。从环比看,8月份固定资产投资(不含农户)下降0.20%。 分产业看,第一产业投资6461亿元,同比增长5.5%;第二产业投资118246亿元,增长7.6%;第三产业投资201404亿元,下降3.4%。 第二产业中,工业投资同比增长7.7%。其中,采矿业投资增长3.0%,制造业投资增长5.1%,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长 18.8%。 第三产业中,基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)同比增长2.0%。其中,水上运输业投资增长15.9%,水利管理业投资增 长7.4%,铁路运输业投资增长4.5%。 分地区看,东部地区投资同比下降3.5%,中部地区投资增长2.5%,西部地区投资增长2.3%,东北地区投资下降6.0%。 分登记注册类型看,内资企业固定资产投资同比增长0.5%,港澳台企业固定资产投资增长2.3%,外商企业固定资产投资下降15.4%。 | 指 标 | 同比增长(%) | | --- ...
国家统计局:1—8月全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-09-15 02:31
2025年1—8月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)326111亿元,同比增长0.5%(按可比口径计算,详见附注7)。其中,民间固定资产投资同比下降2.3%。 从环比看,8月份固定资产投资(不含农户)下降0.20%。 分产业看,第一产业投资6461亿元,同比增长5.5%;第二产业投资118246亿元,增长7.6%;第三产业投资201404亿元,下降3.4%。 国家统计局9月15日公布的数据显示,2025年1—8月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)326111亿元,同比增长0.5%(按可比口径计算,详见附注7)。其 中,民间固定资产投资同比下降2.3%。从环比看,8月份固定资产投资(不含农户)下降0.20%。 第二产业中,工业投资同比增长7.7%。其中,采矿业投资增长3.0%,制造业投资增长5.1%,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长18.8%。 第三产业中,基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)同比增长2.0%。其中,水上运输业投资增长15.9%,水利管理业投资增长7.4%,铁 路运输业投资增长4.5%。 分地区看,东部地区投资同比下降3.5%,中部地区投资增长2.5%,西部地区投资增长2.3 ...
国家统计局:8月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2% 消费品零售总额增长3.4%
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-09-15 02:19
Economic Overview - In August, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, the national economy maintained overall stability with a steady development trend, supported by macro policy adjustments and the promotion of a unified national market [1][9]. Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month. The mining industry grew by 5.1%, manufacturing by 5.7%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.4% [2][18]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.1% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points respectively [2][18]. - From January to August, the industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year [2][18]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (12.1%), finance (9.2%), and leasing and business services (7.4%) [3][18]. - For the first eight months, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [3][18]. Retail Sales - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4][18]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 80,964 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase [4][18]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [5][18]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment fell by 12.9% [5][18]. Trade and Exports - In August, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 38,744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports at 23,035 billion yuan (up 4.8%) and imports at 15,709 billion yuan (up 1.7%) [6][18]. - From January to August, the total value of goods imports and exports was 295,696 billion yuan, also a 3.5% increase year-on-year [6][18]. Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7][18]. - The average working hours for employed persons were 48.5 hours per week [7][18]. Price Trends - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with food prices down by 2.5% [8][18]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [8][18].