Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Macro Aspect**: The US economic growth maintains a slight increase, with some areas seeing rising prices. Fed officials' hawkish remarks suggest maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The impact of tariffs on prices is not obvious yet, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. The short - term disturbance may come from the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, and the macro is about to enter a data - silent period [3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, with prices in the Philippines and Indonesia showing signs of weakening. Nickel - iron prices are under continuous pressure, and stainless - steel mills have low production schedules. The nickel sulfate market has improved, but the transaction has not fully recovered. Pure nickel shows no significant change in premium and discount. The inventory is accumulating again, and there is no obvious improvement expectation in the fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: There is no improvement expectation in the industry. Although the trading in the nickel sulfate market has recovered, the sales growth of new - energy vehicles is weak. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded, but steel production is still shrinking. Supply has recovered, but export profits have shrunk, making it difficult to drive upstream production increase. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate under macro - level disturbances [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel decreased from 121,100 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton; LME nickel increased from 15,064 dollars/ton to 15,218 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 264 tons to 21,560 tons. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 1,662 tons to 229,136 tons [4][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, and Indonesia has lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore in the second phase of July. The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia show signs of weakening [3][5]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 903.5 yuan/nickel point to 900 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia shows different trends. Stainless - steel mills have low production schedules, and the demand for nickel - iron is limited. However, due to cost - price inversion, some factories have reduced production or switched to high - grade nickel matte production, and the price may bottom out soon [6]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly from 27,420 yuan/ton to 27,230 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the production of ternary materials increased. The spot market has improved, but the actual demand is not strong enough to drive price reversal [7]. 3. Terminal Consumption - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 332,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The annual cumulative sales growth rate is gradually declining. There are also some policies to support the new - energy vehicle industry, such as standards for battery replacement and subsidy policies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel has rebounded under policy drive, but steel mills' production schedules are still in a contraction phase, and the strong consumption expectation has not been fulfilled [3][11]. 4. Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Policy**: Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic benchmark price in July, which decreased by about 0.11% compared with the first - phase price. The RKAB approval mechanism will return to annual approval next year [12]. - **Company Operations**: PT GAG Nikel in West Papua has not been allowed to resume operations [12]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, and Indonesia will purchase US energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft [12]. 5. Related Charts - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premium and discount, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are characterized by the resonance of macro and news factors, while the real - world fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The fundamentals of stainless steel show that macro expectations boost the market, but the actual supply - demand situation still exerts a drag. The price of nickel and stainless steel is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and news factors improve market sentiment, with policies potentially adjusting the structure and optimizing supply. The Indonesian APNI Association suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, which may increase smelting costs. However, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in July has affected the supply side, and the acceptance of high smelting prices in the ternary sector is low [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - U.S. tariffs suppress the terminal demand for stainless steel, but domestic policy expectations boost the market. The real - world supply - demand situation has turned into a double - weak state, with weekly inventory slightly decreasing. The production schedule in July shows a decline in China and an increase in Indonesia. The high - cost cash cost of Indonesian stainless steel has decreased, and the high inventory of nickel - iron pressures its valuation [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. The mid - July nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. On July 17, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9.4836 million wet tons [3][4][6]. Market News - There are various events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the U.S., the successful trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, the shutdown and maintenance of a cold - rolling mill, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, the plan to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, and the suspension of production of some nickel - iron EF lines due to losses [7][8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by news, and its fundamentals are under pressure; the stainless - steel market is in a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550, with changes of 1,170 compared to T - 1, 1,410 compared to T - 5, etc. The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,670, with a change of - 25 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 131,554, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is 151,703 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,450, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 900, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,220. There are also data on price differences, premiums, and other indicators [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [1] - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [2] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [2][3] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output, and it cut production by 40% - 50% in May [3] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [3] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [3] - The government - approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel - mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There are supply - side news disturbances, and high volatility may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts have started to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot trading situation [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,695 yuan, down 20 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 94,219 lots, an increase of 13,487 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 66,368 lots, a decrease of 26,319 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 119,750 yuan, down 1,400 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 902 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with a single - line annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][8]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [8]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [8]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [9]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [9]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,660 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 764,028 lots, a decrease of 250,530 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from T - 1 [11]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan, an increase of 250 yuan from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,280 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,689 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. - On July 15, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Exporting in China", adding battery cathode material preparation technology [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, a decrease of 57,095 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 396,653 lots, a decrease of 6,237 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 42,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 705 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of East - China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan from T - 1; the profit of Xinjiang's new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from T - 5; the polysilicon factory inventory was 27.6 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from T - 5 [14]. Macro and Industry News - The Hanyuan Yongli Township and Jiaodingshan photovoltaic power generation projects invested by a subsidiary of the National Energy Group were successfully put into operation. The Yongli Township project has a capacity of 130MW and an annual power generation of 167 million kWh [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Group 1 - The main contract for nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) experienced a decline, closing at 119,380.00 yuan, down 1.15% [1] - Short-term outlook for nickel prices remains volatile, with institutions predicting continued fluctuations [2][3] - LME nickel inventory increased by 402 tons to 206,580 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 854 tons to 21,296 tons [2] Group 2 - The Indonesian government approved a work plan and budget for nickel mining with a projected output of 364 million tons for 2025 [2] - Domestic stainless steel prices have slightly decreased, with major manufacturers lowering their bidding prices to 900 yuan per nickel point [2] - Demand for nickel sulfate in the new energy sector saw a slight month-on-month increase, with production of ternary precursors and materials also rising [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - Lithium carbonate: There are policy disturbances on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the subsequent actual progress [2]. - Industrial silicon: Market news has fermented, and the futures price has risen [2]. - Polysilicon: There are policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 290 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,715 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and other indicators of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Industry Chain: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 904 yuan, down 1 yuan from T - 1; the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 308 yuan, down 3 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the mining fiscal system bill [7]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,480 yuan, up 2,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume and other indicators also changed accordingly [10]. - Spot and Basis: The spot - 2509 basis was - 1,830 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 927 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day [11]. - Tianqi Lithium expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, while Ganfeng Lithium still expects a loss but with a reduced amount [11][12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of PS2508 was 41,765 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Price and Profit: The price of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as the profit of related enterprises, showed different changes. For example, the silicon - factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,387 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Inventory: The industrial - silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from T - 5 [13]. Macro and Industry News - Saudi Arabia has signed power - purchase agreements for 7 new solar and wind projects with a total installed capacity of 15GW and a total investment of about 8.3 billion US dollars [13][15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the mine end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices are oscillating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,390, with a change of 250 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,710, with a change of -155 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 101,921, a decrease of 234 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the main contract of stainless steel was 156,045, an increase of 55,013 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,500, an increase of 1,600 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 904, a decrease of 1 compared to T - 1; the price of red土镍矿1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff battle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [2]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production. In March this year, it almost stopped all production due to a tailings pond landslide. The capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. In May, it had cut production by 40% - 50% due to the sluggish market [4]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [4]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, including improper wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire park [4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [5]. - The government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production of Indonesian nickel mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has been slightly digested, and steel prices have recovered, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts has significantly decreased, and subsequent registration should be monitored [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Market volatility has increased [2][15]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy changes [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,540 yuan, down 1,730 yuan from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,640 yuan, down 90 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, premiums and discounts, and profit margins in the relevant industrial chain [5]. - **Macro and industry news**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,660 yuan, up 380 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5,481 hands. There were also changes in the basis, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [12]. - **Macro and industry news**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2509 closing price was 8,045 yuan, up 65 yuan, and the PS2508 closing price was 36,515 yuan, up 1,005 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Trina Solar signed a component supply agreement with an Austrian company [16][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]