Overview - The report highlights that the convertible bond market experienced significant growth in 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 17.87%, driven primarily by price parity and valuation support [2][12] - The current environment presents challenges for convertible bonds, with overall cost-effectiveness declining and valuation at historical highs, leading to increased investment difficulty [2][12] Section 1: 2025 Convertible Bond Review - The convertible bond market saw a strong performance in early 2025 due to ample liquidity and moderate economic recovery, with price parity being the main driver [12] - The market faced a pullback in March-April due to negative CPI and external disturbances, but recovered from May to September as fundamental expectations improved [12] - The overall market for convertible bonds is now in a "deep water zone," with a significant decline in supply and an increase in the median price to 132 yuan, indicating a high premium environment [2][12][27] Section 2: 2026 Stock Market Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the stock market, with corporate earnings expected to recover and long-term capital inflows continuing to support the equity market [41][45] - The M1 money supply has shown a significant turning point since September 2024, indicating improved liquidity conditions that are expected to benefit the stock market [46][52] Section 3: 2026 Convertible Bond Outlook and Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a dynamic adjustment of positions in convertible bonds based on market cycles, emphasizing a focus on index-based allocations [2][56] - The strategy indicates that the best accumulation window for convertible bonds is during the latter half of a market downturn and the early half of an uptrend [2][56] - The report highlights the importance of sector rotation, suggesting that constructing an equal-weighted index can effectively capture rotation opportunities [2][67]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant increase in both trading volume and price, with a daily turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan, driven by strong performance in technology stocks and a rebound in the brokerage sector, indicating potential for continued upward momentum in the market [1][2][10]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a daily turnover of 2.05 trillion yuan, up from 1.74 trillion yuan in the previous trading day, marking a recovery from a recent decline [2]. - Major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54% to 3924.08 points and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.6% to 3190.27 points [2]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly the CPO concept, experienced a surge of nearly 6%, with significant gains in semiconductor, electronic components, and optical electronics sectors [4][6]. - The communication sector led the gains, with notable stocks such as Tianfu Communication rising over 19% [5][9]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has been positively influenced by favorable macroeconomic data and liquidity conditions, with expectations of continued support for the A-share market [1][10]. - The non-bank financial sector's rise reflects market optimism regarding the recovery of the financial industry amid improving economic conditions [10][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current market momentum is supported by various factors, structural differentiation is increasing, and future performance will depend on policy implementation and the sustainability of new capital inflows [1][11]. - The upcoming central economic work conference is anticipated to further influence market sentiment and activity, with expectations of continued policy support for economic recovery [12][13].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant increase in both volume and price, with daily trading volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong market momentum [1][14] - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.6%, with over 3,400 stocks closing higher, reflecting a broad-based rally in the market [1][14] Sector Performance - Technology stocks, particularly in the CPO (Chip-on-Board) sector, saw substantial gains, with the CPO concept rising nearly 6% [3][16] - Traditional sectors such as liquor, beverages, oil and gas, and white goods experienced slight declines, indicating a shift in investor preference towards technology [3][16] Key Stocks - Notable performers included Tianfu Communication, which surged over 19% to 236.9 yuan per share, and other tech stocks like Xin Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang, which also saw significant price increases [6][18] - The communication sector led the gains, with a 4.79% increase, while the electronic sector rose by 2.60% [18] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment was bolstered by favorable macroeconomic data and liquidity conditions, with expectations of continued upward momentum in A-shares [10][12] - The non-bank financial sector's rise reflects improved market confidence and expectations of better performance in the financial industry amid economic recovery [10][11] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current market momentum is supported by various factors, structural differentiation is increasing, necessitating close monitoring of policy developments and the sustainability of capital inflows [11][12] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to influence market sentiment and activity, with expectations of continued policy support for economic recovery [12]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 市场成交额重回 2 万亿 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 8 日周一，A 股市场延续上行，成交额重回 2 万亿；国债期 货市场震荡分化，长债维持弱势；商品指数下跌，双焦大幅下挫。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨 成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨。12 月 8 日 A 股核心指数集体走强，成长风格显著 占优，上证收于 3,924.08 点，上涨 0.54%；深证表现更强，收于 13,329.99 点， 上涨 1.39%；创业板指收于 3,190.27 点，上涨 2.60%，领涨各核心指数；科创 50 收于 1,350.80 点，上涨 1.86%。全市场成交额重回 2 万亿元，量能较上一交易日 显著放大 18%，显示增量资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank sector's effective timing indicator has seen a drop in trading volume share to 2%, historically indicating the potential for excess returns when combined with external catalysts [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Bank Sector Indicators - The trading volume share of the non-bank sector fell to 2%, with a previous low of 1.5% observed [2]. - External catalysts, such as the adjustment of investment risk factors by insurance funds and proposals to expand broker capital space and leverage limits, have triggered excess returns in the non-bank sector [2]. Group 2: Historical Trends and Market Behavior - Historical data shows that non-bank sector movements (daily gains over 3%) during the year-end and early-year window often signal the start of a volatile market [3]. - Since 2010, in 15 instances of year-end and early-year windows, 7 were accompanied by non-bank sector movements, indicating a correlation with the initiation of volatile market conditions [3]. Group 3: Market Performance Post Non-Bank Movements - Following non-bank sector movements, the overall market typically experiences an upward trend, with average increases of 6.8%, 9%, and 12.8% over the subsequent 10, 20, and 30 trading days, respectively [6]. - In the 20 trading days following non-bank movements, indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 have shown superior performance, with large-cap growth and value styles leading in average returns [9].

12月8日，国家金融监管总局副局长肖远企在亚洲保险论坛上发表主旨演讲时指出，近年来，非银行金 融资产与银行、保险机构的联系日益紧密。尽管银行和保险公司都在努力为信贷和资产配置制定高标准 的解决方案，但紧密的相互联系使得风险更难识别、传播更快。 肖远企认为气候变化已对保险业带来多维度影响。一方面，全球气温攀升和极端天气事件频发，迫使保 险公司修订精算假设、调整承保范围并升级风险模型。另一方面，气候风险也催生了新的市场需求，推 动了财产保障与资产保全类保险产品的开发。他以中国北方某地为例，指出重大灾害显著提升了农户的 保险意识，主动投保正成为趋势，这凸显了保险在灾后恢复中的关键作用。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 肖远企表示，当前保险业，尤其是寿险公司，面临的最大挑战源于高利率环境的冲击。在经历了近20年 的低利率周期后，美联储的快速加息以及全球主要经济体的高利率政策，使得许多建立在低利率范式上 的商业模式难以为继。 他指出，利率冲击不存在"缓冲期"，其对保险资产负债端的影响往往在短期便会显现。这要求保险公司 必须迅速优化资产负债组合、压缩运营成本并提升投资收益。 近年来，全球利率环境的骤然转变与日益严峻的气候 ...

12月8日，国家金融监管总局副局长肖远企在亚洲保险论坛上发表主旨演讲时指出，近年来，非银行金 融资产与银行、保险机构的联系日益紧密。尽管银行和保险公司都在努力为信贷和资产配置制定高标准 的解决方案，但紧密的相互联系使得风险更难识别、传播更快。 私募市场的发展为保险公司提供了更多投资机会。肖远企提到，私募市场有助于保险公司优化资产与能 力结构、提升投资回报。但与此同时，私募市场也带来了更高的潜在风险。私募市场的资产通常具有结 构复杂、透明度较低以及流动性较差等特点，且借款人杠杆率高，违约可能性更大。 对于非银金融而言，肖远企指出，从监管视角来看，如何识别风险并防范其快速传导至关重要，强化资 本监管要求、设定大额风险敞口限额势在必行。这有助于防范风险升级。 （原标题：肖远企：非银风险难识别，将强化资本监管防范风险） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 实习生 金颖 周静仪 香港报道 他指出，利率冲击不存在"缓冲期"，其对保险资产负债端的影响往往在短期便会显现。这要求保险公司 必须迅速优化资产负债组合、压缩运营成本并提升投资收益。 近年来，全球利率环境的骤然转变与日益严峻的气候变化正对保险业构成双重挑战。肖远企 ...

Core Insights - The non-bank sector's effective timing indicator shows a drop in trading volume to 2%, historically leading to excess returns when combined with external catalysts [1][8] - Recent developments, including a reduction in investment risk factors by insurance funds and proposals to expand brokerage capital space and leverage limits, have catalyzed the non-bank sector [1][8] Historical Context - Historically, significant movements in the non-bank sector at the year-end and beginning of the year often signal the start of a volatile market [3][9] - Since 2010, in 15 instances of year-end and beginning of the year windows, 7 have seen the initiation of volatile markets coinciding with non-bank sector movements [3][9] Market Performance - Following non-bank sector movements, the overall market typically enters an upward phase, with average increases of 6.8%, 9%, and 12.8% over the next 10, 20, and 30 trading days respectively [4][10] - In the 20 trading days following non-bank sector movements, indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 tend to outperform, with large-cap growth and value styles showing higher average returns [5][11] Statistical Data - The historical performance data indicates that the average returns for various indices and sectors post non-bank movements are significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing an average return of 19.8% in certain periods [12]

Market Overview - On December 8, 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant surge with a trading volume exceeding 2.05 trillion yuan, marking a notable increase from the previous day. Major indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index soaring by 2.6%. Over 3,400 stocks rose, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector, driven by the CPO (optical module) concept, surged by 4.79%, while technology sectors such as electronics and computers also performed strongly. In contrast, traditional cyclical sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals experienced slight pullbacks. The non-bank financial sector (brokerage) rose by 1.9%, with a significant increase in trading volume, reflecting the entry of new capital and an increase in risk appetite [1] Market Drivers - The core drivers of today's market performance were the resonance of "policy-driven" and "industry trends." Regulatory policies guided "patient capital" to support technological innovation, while the global AI computing power competition and the fundamental logic of optical module technology upgrades collectively propelled the explosion of the technology sector. The market is transitioning from liquidity recovery to a structurally driven dual-phase [1] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of shifting from a focus on specific annual return targets to a more robust risk management approach. It argues that setting unrealistic return expectations can lead to poor decision-making and unnecessary risks. Instead, investors should concentrate on managing risk and understanding potential losses, which is the true essence of investment [2][3] Risk Management Framework - A systematic risk management framework is essential for effective investment. Key components include: 1. **Asset Allocation**: Define risk ceilings based on personal financial cycles and risk tolerance rather than market predictions [3] 2. **Margin of Safety**: Invest only when prices are significantly below intrinsic value to account for potential errors and unforeseen events [3] 3. **In-depth Research and Diversification**: Conduct thorough research to avoid flawed companies and diversify across uncorrelated opportunities to mitigate individual company risks [3] 4. **Discipline and Position Management**: Adjust overall positions based on market valuations and adhere to pre-set investment criteria to maintain rational risk management [4] Long-term Investment Success - Long-term investment success relies on avoiding significant permanent losses, as the cost of recovering from losses is much higher than anticipated. The article highlights that the art of investing lies in systematically avoiding catastrophic downturns, which ultimately opens the door to potential gains [4][5]

（来源：肥猫财经） 板块A股获得的融资净买入额位列前五,而交通运输、 非银金融、建筑、公用事业 II、化工板块A股的融资净 买入额排名末五位。 数据来源：Wind，截止日为2025年12月5日 市场概况 1271 以 | 以出\ 2025年以来两融余额走势图 8,000 25 000 6 000 .000 2025年以来融资余额与每日融资净买入额走势图 30.000 2025年以来融券余额与每日融券卖出额走势图 200 14 12 150 10 8 100 50 秀余额(乙元)(左轴) 期间实出额亿元 交易数据 近一周融资净买入额排名前五的行业 ■融资净买入额(亿元) ■近一周涨跌幅(%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 半导体 有色金属 硬件设备 国防军工 机械 12.65 27.62 22.53 18.03 17.03 2.11 3.35 2.11 4.31 1 . 12 单位:亿元 近一周融资净买入额排名后五的行业 ■融资净买入额(亿元) ■近一周涨跌幅 (%) 0 - | IV -15 -20 -30 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...