Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China achieved a record profit of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, recovering from a cumulative loss of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [1][2] - Despite a loss of approximately 110 billion yuan in Q4 2025, the overall annual performance marked a significant recovery for the industry [2][3] Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of 1,097.65 billion yuan, ending a streak of seven consecutive profitable quarters [2][3] - Equity funds were the hardest hit, with a combined loss of 1,306.91 billion yuan in Q4, while mixed funds lost 499.56 billion yuan [3][4] - For the entire year, equity funds still managed to generate a profit of 1.99 trillion yuan, despite the Q4 downturn [4] Product Categories - QDII funds and FOF funds also faced losses in Q4, amounting to 710.47 billion yuan and 2.12 billion yuan respectively, but ended the year with profits of 1,125.22 billion yuan and 186.38 billion yuan [4] - Fixed-income products, including bond and money market funds, contributed significantly to profits, with bond funds earning 580.81 billion yuan and money market funds 443.13 billion yuan [4] Fund Company Performance - Among 167 fund companies, 108 reported positive profits, with over 60% achieving profitability [5] - Notable performers included Guotou Ruijin Fund, which led the industry with a profit of 72.82 billion yuan [5] Stock Holdings Adjustments - Public funds increased their holdings in 83 new stocks by the end of Q4 2025, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [7] - Ningde Times remained the top holding stock, despite a reduction of 1,993 million shares, while Zhongji Xuchuang became the most held stock among active funds [10][11] Sector Focus - The communication sector, particularly in optical modules, saw increased institutional investment, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Technology becoming top holdings [10] - The top three sectors for public fund investments were electronics, power equipment, and communication, with significant capital allocated to these areas [13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.11%, while the ChiNext Index is down 0.34% and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 2.41% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - CITIC Securities reports that market confidence is gradually recovering, suggesting that sectors with logical narratives at relatively low valuations may see recovery [1] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the short-term market will continue to exhibit a differentiated pattern, supported by high elasticity sectors attracting new capital and a stable RMB exchange rate [2] - Huajin Securities notes that the short-term economic and profit recovery trends are weak, with PPI expected to rise and A-share profits maintaining a structural recovery trend [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities recommends increasing allocations in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) and enhancing returns through domestic demand or high-growth sectors [1] - Zhongtai Securities anticipates that after the Spring Festival, the market's pricing logic will shift from risk preference and valuation expansion to performance verification and profit growth [2] - Everbright Securities advises investors to maintain a steady approach and hold stocks through the holiday, predicting a new upward momentum post-Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Sector Focus - Everbright Securities highlights sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals as key areas of focus, depending on market style [4] - The commercial aerospace sector is noted for its recent recovery, with specific sub-sectors like space computing and upstream materials expected to remain active [5]

本周（2026年1月19日至23日），A股融资余额在2.69万亿元~2.71万亿元区间震荡，最新为27075.43亿 元（截至1月22日），为历史次高。分行业来看，有色金属、非银金融、银行、食品饮料融资净买入额 超过10亿元，分别为40.34亿元、25.58亿元、14.64亿元、10.15亿元。个股方面，本周35股融资净买入额 在3亿元以上。中国平安、航天电子、紫金矿业、贵州茅台排名前四，融资净买入额依次为17.42亿元、 13.91亿元、11.28亿元、10.5亿元。 ...

【光大证券：近期以稳为主 但仍应持股过节】智通财经1月25日电，光大证券研报表示，保持稳健，持 股过节。参考之前的市场行情，认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之 前投资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主 要指数上涨概率不足50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上 行概率与平均涨幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电 力设备、有色金属等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设 备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业 分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具 有一定的相似性。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：智通财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 has shown mixed performance, with some investors profiting significantly from AI ETFs while others face challenges in sectors like real estate. The article emphasizes the importance of understanding liquidity changes to navigate the market effectively [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spring market rally has been driven by three waves of capital inflow: first, broad-based ETFs, second, flexible foreign capital, and third, leveraged funds, each contributing to the market's upward momentum [4]. - The first wave involved broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI A500 Index ETF, which saw significant inflows as institutional investors positioned themselves early [4]. - The second wave was characterized by flexible foreign capital entering the market due to a strengthening RMB, boosting market sentiment [4]. - The third wave saw leveraged funds becoming a major force as investors increased their positions, pushing indices to new highs [4]. Group 2: Recent Changes in Liquidity - Recent weeks have shown signs of liquidity pressure, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300 and STAR 50 Index ETFs, indicating a shift in investor behavior [5][6]. - The inflow of flexible foreign capital has slowed, with expectations of continued outflows as these investors tend to be short-term players [6]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to cool down the rapid inflow of leveraged funds, which may lead to increased market volatility but is intended to promote rational investment [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term liquidity pressures, the spring market rally is expected to continue, presenting potential buying opportunities during market fluctuations [8][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, such as technology and undervalued traditional assets like real estate [10][12]. - The article suggests avoiding ETFs with high redemption pressures and instead focusing on those with strong institutional backing, such as the CSI A500 Index ETF [11]. - Real estate and other traditional sectors like non-bank financials and liquor are highlighted as having potential for investment due to their stable cash flows and improving fundamentals [12][14].

个股方面，本周中国平安、美的集团、海光信息、寒武纪-U、赣锋锂业获主力净流入居前，均超10亿 元；净流出方面，三花智控、中际旭创、香农芯创遭主力净流出居前，分别为61.4亿元、49.88亿元、 41.69亿元。 按申万一级行业来看，本周银行、非银金融、有色金属、煤炭、石油石化五大行业获得主力资金青睐， 其中，银行业获主力净流入47.52亿元；在净流出方面，电子、通信、计算机、电力设备、机械设备行 业均遭抛售超百亿元。 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 咬紧科技不放松——负债行为跟踪 2 0 2 6 . 1 . 2 5 林莎 执业证书编号：S0740525060004 邮 箱：linsha@zts.com.cn 张可迎 执业证书编号： S0740525080001 邮 箱：zhangky04@zts.com.cn 摘要 本周，宽基指数表现分化，沪深300下跌0.6%，而上证和深证指数分别上涨0.8%、1.1%。科技板块总体有所上涨，周一、周二下跌领域较多，周三至周五多数放量 上涨。 一、宽基ETF流出，但改变的是斜率而非趋势。 1月14日以来沪深300ETF资金日均净流出规模高达140亿以上。尽管本周宽基ETF依然在净流出，但行业ETF则是净买入的状态。1）有色出现显著的资金脉冲式流 入，但并非以虹吸其他板块作为前提；2）科技板块依然出现大幅度的净买入。以软件、卫星为代表的科技细分行业净流入额持续位居前列，在前期大规模流入的 基础上，近期仍维持稳健加仓态势。 二、降两融成交显著，两融先降后升。具体来看： 1）本周一（1月19日）两融新规正式落地，周二、周三 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to analyze price-volume data and predict future prices. The model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations and maps learned features to industry theme indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[78][80][81] - The construction process of the CNN model involves transforming individual stock price-volume data within a specific window into standardized graphical charts. These charts are then input into the CNN for feature extraction and prediction modeling. The learned features are subsequently applied to identify and allocate industry themes[78][80] - The evaluation of the CNN model highlights its ability to capture complex patterns in price-volume data and effectively map these patterns to industry themes. This approach provides a novel perspective for quantitative investment strategies[78][81] - Backtesting results indicate that the CNN model's latest configuration suggests a focus on themes such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and nonferrous metals. Specific indices include the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[80][81]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a spring rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11% [12] - Short-term market focus is on low-position sectors, particularly cyclical Alpha (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points in construction materials, oil, and steel [1][13] - The current profitability in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil is nearing high levels, indicating increasing short-term resistance for cyclical trends [1][14] Group 2 - Global market risk appetite is on the rise, favoring equity assets, with recommendations for tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while suggesting underweight in US Treasuries and oil [2][15] - The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to more aggressive economic policies and an expansion of the fiscal deficit [2][15] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB are favorable for China's monetary easing in early 2026 [2][15] Group 3 - The technology sector remains the main focus of the current bull market, driven by the AI wave, with recommendations to pay attention to the application of AI in specific sectors [3][16] - Value sector opportunities are also worth considering, including certain resource products and real estate [3][16] - Consumer services may receive temporary attention as part of the sector allocation strategy [3][16] Group 4 - The market is expected to remain stable with a focus on holding positions through the upcoming holiday, as historical data suggests a less than 50% probability of major index increases in the 20 trading days before the Spring Festival [4][17] - Post-holiday, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index increases in the following 20 trading days [4][17] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on both growth and defensive styles depending on market conditions [4][17] Group 5 - The spring rally is expected to enter its second phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 4200 points, reflecting a strong upward trend since late December [5][18] - The market is witnessing a divergence in fund flows, with significant inflows into margin financing while stock-type ETFs are experiencing outflows [5][18] - Attention is needed on macro policy expectations from the upcoming National People's Congress in March and the microeconomic fundamentals from the 2025 annual reports [5][18] Group 6 - The current average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.88 and 53.36, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][20] - The market is expected to focus on performance and industry trends, with a likelihood of maintaining a slight upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index [8][20] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, and aerospace [8][20] Group 7 - The market is anticipated to continue its oscillation and consolidation phase, with ETF outflows and a temporary decline in margin financing [9][20] - Despite the market's cooling, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and a slow bull market expectation may lead to fluctuating market sentiments [9][20] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the TMT sector, robotics, and non-ferrous metals, alongside a focus on banking and insurance due to favorable long-term funding conditions [9][20] Group 8 - The spring rally is expected to persist, with a significant increase in risk appetite in the A-share market, as evidenced by a 17-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][21] - The market liquidity environment is improving, supported by favorable external conditions and proactive internal policies [10][21] - Key investment themes include low-valuation high-dividend assets, technology-driven production, and domestic market expansion [10][21] Group 9 - The 2026 economic outlook is positive, with proactive monetary and fiscal policies expected to support stable economic growth and a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [11][21] - February is anticipated to maintain the momentum of January's focus on technology and non-ferrous sectors, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][21] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to new productive forces, including AI, aerospace, and agriculture [11][21]