Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend around the Spring Festival in February 2026, with a focus on the "Technology + Resources" mainline market[3] - Key attention should be given to the earnings reports of US tech stocks and the potential validation of AI industry trends[3] Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: - Technology sector, including optical modules, storage, semiconductor equipment, and energy storage, addressing the issues of electricity shortages in the US, chip shortages domestically, and global storage shortages[3] - Non-ferrous metals, with increased volatility expected after January, particularly in industrial metals and chemicals[3] - Hot topics such as robots participating in the Spring Festival Gala and updates on AI large models[3] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Shandong Gold (EPS: 1.78, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Chemicals**: Juhua Co. (EPS: 2.51, PE: 15.7 in 2026E)[20] - **New Energy**: Junda Co. (EPS: 1.67, PE: 60.5 in 2026E)[20] - **Machinery**: Dier Laser (EPS: 2.87, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Military Industry**: Aero Engine Corporation (EPS: 0.35, PE: 132.9 in 2026E)[20] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life (EPS: 10.68, PE: 7.8 in 2026E)[20] - **Automotive**: Top Group (EPS: 1.92, PE: 37.7 in 2026E)[20] - **Electronics**: Jingce Electronics (EPS: 1.15, PE: 115.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Communication**: Zhongji Xuchuang (EPS: 17.40, PE: 37.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Media**: Giant Network (EPS: 2.12, PE: 20.8 in 2026E)[20] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation due to factors like slow job growth and reduced market demand[22] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could lead to substantial declines in revenue or net profit[22]

证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, but institutions remain optimistic about the potential for upward movement in February, traditionally a strong month for the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% this week, while the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.62%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index declined by 3.54% [1]. - Historical data indicates that February has a 76% probability of positive returns, with an average increase of 3.4% and a median increase of 3.0%, making it a traditional window for bullish sentiment in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Focus areas for investment include sectors with strong performance indicators such as AI hardware, storage chips, and industrial software, as well as the renewable energy sector, particularly in energy storage and lithium battery supply chains [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, including commercial aerospace, 6G technology, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces, which are expected to receive policy support [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market's short-term fluctuations are attributed to natural digestion after high turnover rates and a peak in the proportion of transactions in non-ferrous metals, but the underlying logic for a spring rally remains intact [3]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive, with multiple factors such as increased insurance allocations, the maturation of fixed deposits, and foreign capital inflows contributing to a favorable market outlook [3]. Group 4: Sector Rotation - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation, with semiconductors, liquor, and real estate showing temporary gains, although the sustainability of these trends is uncertain [4]. - The report suggests that structural opportunities will continue to arise, particularly in technology innovation themes and manufacturing sectors, with a focus on recovery paths for profitability in resource sectors [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with technology and cyclical sectors reaching historical valuation highs, indicating that upward movement will depend on substantial industry trends and earnings growth [5]. - The focus remains on cyclical recovery and advanced manufacturing, with ongoing attention to sectors such as non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, which are expected to show resilience despite market fluctuations [6].

如何看待有色金属的高波动？ 本轮有色金属的行情背后是：美元信用松动+流动性宽松预期+新增产业需求叙事，金融资本由于此前对实物资产欠配， 所以在上述三个催化下快速涌入。我们是实物资产投资逻辑在国内市场最早的构建者，但在近期市场过于流行的一致 预期也让我们担心一切看起来"太过容易"。本周四、周五有色金属商品和股票调整的原因则在于上述"美元信用松 动+流动性宽松预期"的叙事因为美联储主席提名人选的确定出现了逆转，再加上有色金属价格达到历史新高后的获 利了结。特朗普对沃什的提名尽管不直接意味着流动性的收紧，但至少让市场看到了一个"重塑美元信用"的蓝图， 这对于前期的拥挤交易产生了冲击：第一，美联储"缩表"回收市场多余流动性，压低通胀；第二，在通胀得到控制 的前提下，跟随自然利率的下降而降息，支持高效率的企业生产培育经济增长的内生动能，这是美元信用可持续的核 心支撑。而为了平滑上述两个环节带来的市场波动——美联储作为本土最大买家逐步减持美债将带来债券收益率大 幅上行，美国政府需要想方设法重塑美债买盘， "石油美元"循环在此时的重要性提升：历史上，原油每上升 1 美 元，将带来沙特、阿联酋、科威特这三个海合组织国家持有美 ...

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

Core Insights - The overall profitability of A-share listed companies continues to recover, with 2,983 companies disclosing performance forecasts, achieving a disclosure rate of 55.73% as of January 31, 2026. The disclosed net profit for 2024 is nearly 540 billion yuan, accounting for 10.30% of total A-share net profit [1][2][3] Performance Forecasts - Among the disclosed performance forecasts, the positive forecast rate is 36.67%, an increase from 34.07% in 2024. There are 1,069 companies expecting profits and 1,846 expecting losses, with the highest positive forecast rate in the ChiNext board at 38.33% [2][3] Profit Growth Rates - The median net profit growth rate for all A-share companies is 17.5% year-on-year, with an overall growth rate of 38.2%, both higher than the growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025. The ChiNext board shows significant improvement in profit growth, driven by overseas computing power and reduced losses in some new energy companies [3][4] Industry Insights - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals have high positive forecast rates of 87.50% and 65.75%, respectively. Other sectors with notable rates include beauty care (53.85%), automotive (53.68%), and public utilities (50.94%) [4][5] - The median year-on-year net profit growth rates for industries such as non-ferrous metals (68.98%), non-bank financials (67.63%), and steel (59.17%) rank among the highest for 2025 [4][5] Sectoral Opportunities - Key sectors showing strong performance indicators include resource commodities benefiting from new demand from AI and high-end manufacturing, as well as the AI sector experiencing explosive growth due to increased capital expenditure by cloud vendors [5][6] - Leading manufacturing companies are expanding into new growth areas through overseas operations, particularly in automotive parts, power equipment, and shipbuilding, which are expected to drive industry growth [5][6] Market Outlook - The A-share market is entering a traditional bullish window, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of index increases in February, with an average increase of 3.4% [8][9] - Investment focus should be on sectors with strong performance indicators, including AI hardware, new energy storage, and sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as commercial aerospace and 6G technology [9]

与有色金属、通信等板块受成长型基金驱动不同，非银金融此轮增持主要由价值型基金主导。分析指出，保险行 业兼具稳定分红与长期成长性，在权益市场回暖和定存资金转移的背景下，其配置价值进一步凸显。2025年四季 度，保险指数累计上涨23.42%，显著跑赢银行股和券商股。中国平安、中国太保等龙头因资产负债表优化、新业 务价值回升，成为基金超配的核心标的。机构认为，经过前期估值调整，保险板块的结构性机会大于市场整体波 动，尤其是具备渠道优势和产品创新能力的头部公司，有望持续受益于居民财富配置转型。 券商板块的加仓则呈现"强者恒强"特征。数据显示，公募基金对中信证券的持仓市值比例从0.1687%提升至 0.3132%，华泰证券从0.1579%增至0.1989%，而中小券商的增持幅度相对有限。市场人士指出，全面注册制深 化、衍生品业务扩容等政策预期，叠加权益市场活跃度提升，头部券商凭借资本实力和综合服务能力，更易获得 超额收益。不过，尽管四季度获得加仓，非银金融整体仍处于低配状态，当前仓位较2006年以来平均水平仍有较 大差距，位于30%的历史分位，后续增配空间或受市场风险偏好和行业基本面改善程度影响。 【环球网财经综合报道 ...

Key Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for February 2026, highlighting investment opportunities based on specific market conditions and company performance [1][2]. Financial and Valuation Summary - **Banking Sector**: - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is recommended due to its clear performance bottom, attractive valuation, and potential for retail credit recovery [1][3]. - **Non-Banking Financials**: - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is favored for its ongoing transformation and improved product structure, alongside easing real estate risks [1][3]. - **Food and Beverage**: - Weilong Delicious Food (9985.HK) is noted for its innovative product development and solid channel foundation, expected to maintain or slightly increase profit margins [1][3]. - **Home Appliances**: - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) is highlighted for its strategic positioning in high-end markets and operational efficiency improvements, benefiting from domestic policies and overseas demand [1][3]. - **Power Equipment**: - Keli (002782.SZ) is recognized for its strong market position in magnetic components and ongoing overseas expansion, with a focus on solid-state transformer applications [1][3]. - **Basic Chemicals**: - China Petroleum (601857.SH) is expected to benefit from declining natural gas import costs and increasing domestic market share [1][3]. - **Metals and Materials**: - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is positioned for growth due to its acquisition of Brazilian aluminum assets and high profitability from rising aluminum prices [1][3]. - **Electronics**: - Lante Optics (688127.SH) anticipates significant profit growth driven by expanding demand in various tech sectors, including AR glasses [1][3]. - **Internet**: - Alibaba (9988.HK) is projected to see substantial cloud revenue growth, supported by its "Cloud + AI + Chip" strategy [1][3]. - **Machinery**: - Boying Welding (301468.SZ) is expected to capture market share in HRSG and oil and gas composite pipes, benefiting from North American demand [1][3].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in Q4 2025, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with a decline in the proportion of funds overweighting Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - The total size of actively managed equity public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2025 is 20,356 billion, accounting for 52.2% of the total actively managed equity fund size, down from 52.4% in Q3 2025 [10] - The market value of Hong Kong heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds in Q4 2025 is 3,121 billion, which is a decrease from 3,950 billion in Q3 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, actively managed equity public funds have increased their exposure to cyclical financial sectors while reducing exposure to technology and consumer sectors in Q4 2025 [2][19] - The sectors with increased allocation include non-ferrous metals (6.8%, up 2.3 percentage points), non-bank financials (5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points), and oil and petrochemicals (3.5%, up 2.1 percentage points) [19][26] - The sectors with reduced allocation include consumer discretionary retail (11.0%, down 2.2 percentage points), hardware equipment (3.0%, down 2.0 percentage points), and semiconductors (7.6%, down 2.0 percentage points) [19][26] Group 3 - The concentration of the top ten heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with their combined holding percentage in Q4 2025 being 49.7%, down from 54.0% in Q3 2025 [3][28] - The top three heavy stocks remain consistent with Q3 2025, including Tencent Holdings (holding size of 578 billion, accounting for 18.5%), Alibaba (310 billion, 10.0%), and SMIC (187 billion, 6.0%) [3][28]

Core Viewpoint - Public funds are increasing their allocation to non-bank financials, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards these sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Trends - In Q4 2025, public funds raised their non-bank financial positions by 1 percentage point, making it the fourth largest sector increase after metals, communications, and basic chemicals [2][3]. - Notable stocks such as China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance received significant over-allocations from funds [3]. - The insurance index saw a substantial increase of 23.42% in Q4 of the previous year, outperforming traditional dividend-paying bank stocks [3]. Group 2: Brokerage Performance Expectations - Several listed brokerages have announced expected net profit increases for 2025, with many projecting year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [4]. - Notable forecasts include CITIC Securities expecting a net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan, and Dongwu Securities projecting a net profit of 3.431 billion to 3.668 billion yuan, both showing significant growth [4]. - Despite the increase in fund allocations, non-bank financials remain underweight compared to historical averages, currently around 30% [4]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in the Market - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has been increasing, suggesting a continuation of favorable market conditions for brokerage stocks [5]. - Analysts recommend focusing on brokerages with strong retail business shares and those that contribute significantly to profits, as individual stock opportunities may outweigh overall market trends [5]. - The insurance sector is benefiting from the performance of equity markets and a shift in deposit funds, with a stable interest rate environment enhancing its investment appeal [6].