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【广发策略刘晨明&许向真】港股公司出口敞口有多大
晨明的策略深度思考· 2025-04-06 23:25
本文作者:刘晨明/许向真/陈振威 报告摘要 扫描下图二维码 , 可进入周一早8:00的路演链接 4月2日美国宣布超预期"对等关税"引发全球市场巨震,4月5日中国宣布对美34%反制关税后恐慌加剧。 对于港股 市场将如何反映关税冲击,我们认为不宜低估 短期风险与不确定性, 外部冲击之后,逻辑回到内需修复与自主可控: 1. 贸易战以来中国对美国直接出口敞口有所收窄,但对转口国比例提升明显,很大程度上美国仍是这部分出口的最终消费国。 2. "转口国"是此次美国"对等关税"的重点打击对象,后续谈判不排除会有涉中措施。 特朗普上台以来,墨西哥、越南、泰国、印尼都曾对中国采取加税或从严 监察措施。 3. 港股科技硬件、医疗保健、可选消费以及部分工业和基础设施领域上市公司有不小的风险敞口,短期我们更建议规避不确定性。文中我们梳理了港股前50大 市值+机构最关注的50家公司2012年以来的出口占比。 对于此次 "对等关税"可以有正面或负面理解,负面理解在于关税对出口的直接冲击,同时市场可能再度 交易人民币主动贬值;正面理解在于此次美国加征关税多面树敌,且美国国内经济数据走弱、降息预期陡增,反而为中国逆周期调节赢得宝贵的时间和空 ...
私募机构调研热情不断攀升
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-04-06 16:15
Group 1 - The enthusiasm of private equity institutions for researching A-share market has significantly increased, with 923 private equity institutions conducting research on 209 A-share listed companies in March, marking a 107.38% increase from January and a 10.02% increase from February [1] - The main drivers behind this research surge include the recovery of the A-share market boosting investor confidence, ongoing market interest in technology sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and the desire to identify structural opportunities amid market differentiation [1] - Guangdong Zhengyuan Private Fund Management Company led the research frequency with 96 instances, focusing on seven listed companies that saw stock price increases exceeding 20% in March [1] Group 2 - In March, the machinery equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology sectors were the primary focus of private equity research, with machinery equipment companies receiving 259 research instances, electronics 258, and pharmaceutical biology 243 [2] - The technology sector is becoming a key investment area for private equity institutions, while the pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative Chinese drug companies, is showing investment value after a long adjustment period [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low in valuation, with institutional allocation below historical averages, indicating a high safety margin and growth potential [2]
假期重磅!刚刚,开盘暴跌!特朗普最新发声!中国多箭齐发,坚决反制!影响一周市场的十大消息
券商中国· 2025-04-06 09:09
1 多箭齐发!中方坚决反制美"对等关税" 美东时间4月2日,美方宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"。中方对此坚决反对,并表示将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。4月4日,中方接连表态并发布反制行 动: 国务院关税税则委员会公告,对原产于美国的所有进口商品,在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税; 商务部会同海关总署对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制措施; 中方在世贸组织起诉美"对等关税"措施; 商务部将斯凯迪奥公司等11家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单; 商务部将16家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单; 商务部对进口医用CT球管发起产业竞争力立案调查; 商务部对原产于美国、印度的进口相关医用CT球管发起反倾销立案调查; 海关总署暂停美国C&D (USA) INC.企业高粱和American Proteins inc.等3家企业禽肉骨粉输华资质; 海关总署暂停美国2家禽肉企业产品输华。 5 程序化交易规则落地!三大交易所细化监管标准 2 特朗普回应股市崩盘 在美国宣布所谓"对等关税"政策引发美国和全球股市震荡后,美国总统特朗普最新在社交媒体上转发其支持者发布的一段视频,视频开头表示 股市崩盘是" ...
A+H上市潮!备战港股IPO,年内已有14只A股递表
券商中国· 2025-04-04 11:33
4月3日晚间,在上交所上市的东鹏饮料发布公告称,已向中国香港联交所递交了发行H股股票并在香港 联交所主板挂牌上市的申请。券商中国记者统计发现,这是2025年以来,第14家宣布向港交所递表的 A股公司。若算上正在筹划H股上市的,则足有25家,其中不乏千亿市值龙头。 自去年香港联交所宣布优化新上市申请审批流程,尤其针对合资格A股公司提供"快速审批"通道后,A股 公司正在扎堆涌向H股。尤其在全球聚焦中国科技资产重估主线的背景下,国内科技创新、出海优势、明 星头部企业正加速港股上市步伐,有望在国际资本市场吸引更多目光。 A股公司竞相递表 截至4月3日,2025年已有14家A股公司表示已向香港联交所递交H股上市申请,若算上正在筹划H股上市 但尚未递表的,则足有25家,其中包括宁德时代、恒瑞医药、海天味业等8家市值过千亿的A股明星企 业。 上述统计甚至还未包括像歌尔股份计划以子公司赴港IPO的情况。而在2024年,全年仅有7家A股公司向 香港联交所递表。 从企业规模来看,目前筹划赴港的A股企业市值不小,其中不少是行业龙头。 截至4月3日收盘,上述25家A股公司中,宁德时代市值最高为10704亿元(人民币,下同);其次是恒 ...
[4月2日]指数估值数据(港股指数有哪些,投资价值如何?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-04-02 13:51
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 银行、红利等价值风格整体上涨。 科创板等成长风格微跌。 港股波动不大,港股科技股微涨。 今年港股比较火。 也有朋友问港股的指数体系,港股有哪些指数基金可以投资? 港股跟A股指数体系类似,也是宽基、策略、行业、主题这样的分类。 只不过港股因为本土基金市场比较小,每一类的指数基金数量、规模,比A股少很多。 1. 港股宽基指数 今天大盘略微上涨,截止到收盘,还在5星。 沪深300等大盘股微跌。 小盘股微涨。 代表是恒生指数、H股指数、港股中小。 (1)恒生指数 港股的代表指数,代表港股的大盘股。 (2)H股指数 全称是恒生中国企业指数,简称H股指数或者国企指数。 其实是中国企业的意思。 早期这两个指数有差异。但现在恒生指数中内地公司占比越来越高,这两个指数也比较相似了。 (3)香港中小 恒生和H股指数都是大盘股为主。 香港中小则是大中盘股为主。市值规模小一些。 香港中小也是2018-2019年那轮熊市咱们定投比较多的指数,后来到了高估完成止盈,收益也不错。 咱们估值表里也已经考虑了分红税的因素了。 现在也有一些定期分红的港股红利类品种。 例如沪港深红利成长低波动、恒生红利低波 ...
今天是行情拐点?
Datayes· 2025-04-02 11:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting a significant drop in trading volume and potential turning points influenced by central bank actions and foreign capital movements [1][5]. Market Overview - The A-share market's trading volume has fallen below 1 trillion yuan, with a total of 992.8 billion yuan on the day, a decrease of 160.2 billion yuan from the previous day [9]. - The three major indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.13% [9]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - Southbound funds sold 11.9 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of stocks, indicating a cautious sentiment among foreign investors [1]. - The article references a previous instance where the central bank announced an increase in foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong, suggesting a potential correlation with market movements [1]. Trade Policy Insights - The article summarizes a trade report indicating that China has not fully complied with key commitments made in the Phase One trade agreement with the U.S., particularly in areas like agricultural biotechnology and intellectual property [5][6]. - The report also highlights concerns over China's industrial policies, which the U.S. views as unfair competition, and mentions China's average Most-Favored-Nation tariff rate of 7.5% [5][6]. Sector Performance - The article notes that the robotics sector saw a rebound, with companies like Jinggong Technology and Tianhe Magnetic Materials hitting the daily limit [10][11]. - The automotive parts sector also gained attention due to developments in laser radar technology, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases [12]. Investment Trends - The banking sector saw the largest net inflow of capital, while the pharmaceutical and defense sectors experienced notable outflows [24]. - The article lists the top five sectors with net inflows, including banking, non-bank financials, and communications, while highlighting the sectors with the largest outflows, such as pharmaceuticals and defense [24][26]. Global Market Context - The article references a report from Deutsche Bank indicating significant volatility in global financial markets, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,124 per ounce, and the S&P 500 index experiencing a total return decline of 4.3% in the first quarter [14][16]. - The U.S. dollar faced challenges, with a 3.9% decline in the first quarter, while the euro appreciated by 4.5% [17].
2025年一季度基金业绩排行榜:机器人主题基金领涨,主动权益基金全面回暖
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-04-02 04:53
Group 1: Core Insights - The public fund market in Q1 2025 performed well, driven by AI and robotics, with robotics-themed funds, North Exchange funds, and Hong Kong stock funds leading the performance rankings [1][5] - The top-performing fund, Penghua Carbon Neutrality Theme A, achieved a return of 60.26%, making it the champion of Q1 performance [1][2] - Active equity funds showed a significant recovery, outperforming passive products due to their flexible market strategies and early positioning in high-performing stocks [1][5] Group 2: Robotics-Themed Funds - Robotics-themed funds stood out in Q1 2025, with Penghua Carbon Neutrality Theme A heavily invested in stocks like Beite Technology and Hechuan Technology, achieving a 60.26% return [2] - Notable stocks contributing to the fund's success included Shuanglin Co., which saw a year-to-date increase of 118.16% [2] - Fund managers expressed optimism about the robotics sector, highlighting investment opportunities in areas such as electronic skin and laser radar [2] Group 3: North Exchange Funds - North Exchange funds also performed well, with returns of 38.98%, 37.45%, and 34.26% for specific funds, driven by investments in stocks like Kelaite, which increased by 136.01% [3] - The North Exchange market is viewed as having reasonable valuations, with potential for growth due to the continuous inclusion of innovative companies [3] Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Funds - Hong Kong stock funds experienced a resurgence, with returns of 38.9%, 32.25%, and 31.4%, primarily driven by strong performances in the internet technology and pharmaceutical sectors [4] - Key stocks included Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Kelong Biotechnology, which saw significant price increases of 78.08% and 64.58%, respectively [4] - Fund managers anticipate continued growth in the pharmaceutical sector due to improved R&D efficiency and increasing transaction shares from overseas pharmaceutical companies [4] Group 5: Active Equity Funds - Active equity funds demonstrated strong performance, with an average net value growth rate of 3.47%, significantly outperforming mainstream indices [5] - Ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds reported average net value growth rates of 4.57% and 4.53%, respectively, showcasing the strong capabilities of public funds in equity investment [5] - The overall market in Q1 2025 exhibited structural characteristics, with robotics-themed funds leading the way and active equity funds marking a recognition of fund managers' stock-picking abilities [5]
一季度大赚60%!最牛基金曝光
券商中国· 2025-04-02 02:17
Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry achieved impressive performance in Q1 2025, driven by a structural market led by AI and robotics themes [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund performance leaderboard for Q1 2025 was dominated by robotics-themed funds, Beijing Stock Exchange funds, and Hong Kong stock funds [2]. - The top-performing fund, Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A, managed by Yan Siqian, achieved a return of 60.26%, heavily investing in several robotics stocks [3][5]. - Other notable funds include Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A and Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection A, both exceeding 50% returns, also focusing on robotics [6]. Group 2: Robotics Theme Funds - Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A's significant holdings included stocks like Beite Technology and Hechuan Technology, with Double Forest Co. seeing a year-to-date increase of 118.16% [3][6]. - Fund managers expressed optimism about the rapid production of humanoid robots and the investment opportunities in new materials and technologies [7]. - The focus on core components and AI perception in humanoid robots indicates a growing market potential, with significant room for technological advancement [7][8]. Group 3: Beijing Stock Exchange Funds - Beijing Stock Exchange funds also performed well, with notable returns from funds like CITIC Construction Investment and Huaxia, achieving returns of 38.98% and 37.45% respectively [9]. - These funds have successfully identified high-performing stocks within the Beijing Stock Exchange, such as Kelaite, which saw a remarkable increase of 136.01% [9]. Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Funds - Hong Kong stock funds regained attention, with funds like Huatai Hong Kong Advantage Selection and Zhongyin Hong Kong Medical achieving returns of 38.9% and 32.25% respectively [12]. - The performance of these funds was bolstered by significant gains in pharmaceutical stocks, with companies like Kelun Pharmaceutical and Rongchang Biological seeing increases of 78.08% and 64.58% [12]. - The manager of Huatai Hong Kong Advantage Selection highlighted the growing competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs in the global market, projecting a significant increase in overseas licensing deals [12][13].
汇川技术、安必平最受公募机构调研青睐
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-04-01 22:45
【深圳商报讯】(记者 陈燕青)一季度公募基金调研热情依然较高。公募排排网数据显示,今年一季 度共有163家公募基金参与到A股公司调研,覆盖到30个申万一级行业中的1074家公司,合计调研次数 达14985次。 一季度公募机构调研覆盖的1074家A股公司中,36家公司被调研次数不少于60次,其中20家被调研60- 79次;13家被调研80-99次;3家被调研不少于100次。一季度公募基金调研前十大A股公司均被调研不 少于88次。其中,机械设备行业公司汇川技术被调研236次居首,大幅领先于其余公司,成为一季度最 受公募调研青睐公司。医药生物行业公司安必平和电子行业公司水晶光电均被调研不少于100次,仅次 于汇川技术。 一季度公募机构调研覆盖的30个申万一级行业中,23个申万一级行业被调研不少于100次,其中10个行 业被调研100-299次。 一季度参与A股公司调研的163家公募机构中,93家公募机构调研次数不少于60次,其中32家公募机构 调研60-99次;48家调研100-199次;13家调研不少于200次。博时基金一季度调研364次居首,成为一季 度调研最勤奋的公募机构,其调研公司中,汇川技术、安必平、水晶 ...
机构3月份调研热情升温!AI、人形机器人是重点方向
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-04-01 09:56
登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 机构3月份调研上市公司的热情进一步升温。 从行业上看,机构3月份调研电子、机械设备、医药生物、基础化工、汽车、电力设备、计算机等行业 的公司数量居前。从调研方向来看,AI、人形机器人等是重点和热门方向。 此外,从整个2025年一季度的机构调研情况来看,电子、机械设备、医药生物、计算机、基础化工、电 力设备等行业也较受机构青睐。 机构3月份调研热情进一步升温 据Wind数据,刚刚过去的3月份,机构的调研热情较此前一个月升温,合计调研了超过790家上市公 司,数量较2月份进一步增加。 责任编辑:杨红卜 以威胜信息为例,机构在3月份合计多次调研该公司,涉及公募基金、券商、保险等不同类型的机构。 在接受机构调研时,威胜信息回复了多个方面的问题。比如在回复公司AI产品营收规模以及后续计划 和布局的问题时,威胜信息方面表示,目前AI产品营收超4亿元,在新产品的占比已达到30%。主要体 现在电网软硬融合产品上,如通信板块芯片和模块以及智慧能效业务。未来,威胜信息将持续通过技术 创新和AI垂直应用带来增 ...