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A股“慢牛”基调不改,关注稀土战略与存储高景气
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-23 08:03
Market Perspective - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with high volatility but not reaching the peaks of previous bull markets, indicating room for expansion in the market [4][8][10] - The market's trading indicators show that the current sentiment is not at a boiling point, with growth in trading volume and turnover still below historical highs [8][9] - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by "policy + profit," particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing, as well as consumer sectors [10][11] Consumer Sector Insights - The rise of the prepared food industry is attributed to technological breakthroughs, the demand for standardized meals from B-end enterprises, and the simplification of cooking needs in the C-end market [4][22][28] - The historical development of prepared foods in the U.S., Japan, and China highlights the importance of logistics, technological advancements, and changing social structures in driving industry growth [23][25][26] High-End Manufacturing Highlights - Rare earth elements are positioned as core resources for high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, with a supply-demand resonance emerging [4][29] - China's rare earth industry is seeing significant revenue growth, with North Rare Earth achieving a revenue of 18.866 billion yuan, a 45.24% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 931 million yuan, up 1951.52% [29][30] - The global demand for rare earth elements is expected to rise due to green transformation and carbon neutrality goals, further solidifying the strategic position of the rare earth industry [4][35] Hard Technology Outlook - The AI sector continues to show strong growth, particularly in wafer foundry and storage segments, driven by increasing demand for AI applications [4][12][16] - The report notes that the storage sector is experiencing upward momentum, primarily due to the shift towards high-end products like DDR5, while traditional consumer electronics and semiconductors are showing relatively flat performance [4][12][16]
中国稀土股价跌5.01%,前海开源基金旗下1只基金重仓,持有170.58万股浮亏损失438.39万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 03:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant decline in the stock price of China Rare Earth, which dropped by 5.01% to 48.72 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.728 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.27%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 51.703 billion yuan [1] - China Rare Earth Group Resources Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, and was established on June 17, 1998. The company was listed on September 11, 1998, and its main business involves rare earth smelting separation and rare earth technology research and services [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes 63.51% from rare earth oxides, 35.95% from rare earth metals and alloys, 0.35% from other sources, and 0.18% from technical service income [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten holdings of funds, it is noted that one fund under Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund has a significant position in China Rare Earth, specifically the Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource Mixed A Fund (003304), which held 1.7058 million shares, accounting for 8.06% of the fund's net value, ranking as the fifth-largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for this fund today is approximately 4.3839 million yuan [2] - The Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource Mixed A Fund was established on October 17, 2016, with a latest scale of 289 million yuan. Year-to-date returns are 67.02%, ranking 400 out of 8172 in its category, while the one-year return is 92.51%, ranking 834 out of 7995 [2]
2025年7月中国稀土及其制品出口数量和出口金额分别为1.24万吨和3.31亿美元
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-23 03:19
Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the competitive strategy and market demand for China's rare earth industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] - According to data from Chinese customs, in July 2025, China's export volume of rare earths and their products reached 12,400 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [1] - The export value for the same period was $331 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [2] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions for investment decision-making [2]
广晟有色跌2.04%,成交额1.77亿元,主力资金净流出902.54万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 02:22
9月23日,广晟有色盘中下跌2.04%,截至09:59,报54.71元/股,成交1.77亿元,换手率0.95%,总市值 184.06亿元。 资金流向方面,主力资金净流出902.54万元,特大单买入1322.86万元,占比7.49%,卖出2063.98万元, 占比11.68%;大单买入3469.56万元,占比19.64%,卖出3630.97万元,占比20.56%。 广晟有色今年以来股价涨96.73%,近5个交易日跌7.32%,近20日跌12.10%,近60日涨4.65%。 今年以来广晟有色已经2次登上龙虎榜,最近一次登上龙虎榜为6月4日。 广晟有色所属申万行业为:有色金属-小金属-稀土。所属概念板块包括:稀土永磁、国资改革、广东国 资、融资融券、稀缺资源等。 截至6月30日,广晟有色股东户数5.55万,较上期增加32.18%;人均流通股6061股,较上期减少 24.34%。2025年1月-6月,广晟有色实现营业收入26.77亿元,同比减少47.83%;归母净利润7249.87万 元,同比增长124.04%。 分红方面,广晟有色A股上市后累计派现426.80万元。近三年,累计派现0.00元。 机构持仓方面,截止2 ...
伦敦金盘中再创新高,关注黄金基金ETF(518800)、黄金股票ETF(517400)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 01:33
Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose on September 22, breaking the $3,700 mark and reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract increase by over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, gold's strong performance continued, with 10 Fed officials supporting three or more rate cuts this year, and the market expecting a 92% probability of a rate cut in October [1] - Geopolitical risks and global economic concerns continue to bolster gold's status as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to maintain strong gold purchases between 900 to 950 tons this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 3.81% to 10,317 yuan per kilogram, setting a new historical high [4] - The copper market is experiencing stable growth due to demand from green energy transitions and artificial intelligence, despite supply disruptions [4] - The rare earth market is seeing increased overseas orders following China's export controls, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery for related companies [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is approximately 24 times earnings, which is at the 35th percentile historically, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Investors are encouraged to participate in the market through mining ETFs and non-ferrous 60 ETFs [5]
A股小幅震荡,黄金及工业金属均表现强劲
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 15:16
Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.22% closing at 3828.58 points and a total turnover of 941.8 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13157.97 points with a turnover of 1179.7 billion yuan [1] - The market showed a trend of more declines than gains, with notable performance in the electronics and computer sectors [1] - The trading heat has decreased recently, indicating a potential structural opportunity phase in the A-share market, suggesting investors focus on industries with superior performance trends and high prosperity [1] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose, with London gold prices breaking through 3700 USD, reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw a significant increase of over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates has bolstered gold's strong performance, with a 92% market expectation for a rate cut in October [1] - UBS forecasts global central bank gold purchases to remain strong at 900 to 950 tons this year, reflecting confidence in gold as a reserve asset, with predictions for gold prices to potentially exceed 4000 USD next year [2] Industrial Metals - Various industrial metals have seen price increases in the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with silver rising by 3.81% to 10317 yuan per kilogram, and copper maintaining prices above 80000 yuan per ton [2] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector increased by approximately 1%, outperforming other industries [2] - The demand for silver remains robust due to its applications in electronics and photovoltaic equipment, while the green energy transition and AI growth provide stable demand for copper [2] Rare Earth Market - China's strengthened export controls on rare earths have led to increased overseas restocking orders and rising domestic demand in the permanent magnet industry [3] - Expectations for rare earth policies have increased, stabilizing product prices and improving profit margins for companies [3] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metal index is around 24 times earnings, indicating potential for future valuation recovery [3] AI Chip Market - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a resurgence, with the Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF rising over 5% [3] - Huawei's release of new super nodes and chips is seen as a significant advancement, with the Ascend 950 super node considered the strongest globally [4] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow, supported by increasing capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [4] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is recovering from previous challenges, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising by 6.33% [4] - Regulatory attention on the industry's competition issues is expected to stabilize prices and profits, with upstream silicon material profits beginning to recover [4][6] - The global demand for new installations is projected to exceed 600 GW annually, with companies expanding production in low-tariff regions to maintain competitive advantages [6]
中国掌握稀土供应主动权,美国却提三个条件要求让步,凭什么
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 12:54
美国真是越来越分不清供应商和买家的身份了! 9月18日,美国众议院"中国问题"代表约翰·穆勒纳尔,喊话特朗普并声称:"若中国不答应美国在稀土供应上的要求,就限制甚至暂停中国航空公司在美国 和盟国的着陆权。" 除此之外,他还提出另外两个附加条件,认为一定能让中国主动认输、答应美国请求,不得不说,美国还是太自信了! 这威胁,听着就离谱 说起来你可能不信,但这事儿真的发生了。9月18日,美国众议院中国问题特别委员会主席穆勒纳尔,正式向特朗普喊话了。 这位共和党议员提出的建议让人瞠目结舌:如果中国不答应美国在稀土供应上的要求,就不让中国飞机在美国和盟国机场降落。你没听错,就是用航空权威 胁稀土供应。 前言 这套"三板斧"招招要命。第一招,直接断航线——限制甚至暂停中国航司在美国及其盟国的着陆权。第二招,卡飞机零件——重新审查对华商用飞机、零部 件和维护服务的出口管制政策。 第三招,拦投资项目——协调主要盟友,共同限制中国在航空领域的对外投资。穆勒纳尔还煞有介事地宣称,这些举措是为了向中方释放"明确信号"。听到 这里,你是不是和我一样想笑? 这就像欠债的威胁债主一样荒唐。要知道,美国国防部最新评估显示,美军装备对中国稀 ...
今年8月份,中国对欧盟稀土磁铁出口环比增长21%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 11:31
据海关总署9月20日公布的数据显示,今年8月份,中国对欧盟的稀土磁铁出口量环比增长21%,达到 2582吨,从今年年初至今的出口量已超过美国出口量的三倍。相比之下,中国对美国的稀土磁铁出口量 环比下降5%,至590吨。 彭博社当地时间9月21日报道称,上个月,中国对欧盟稀土磁铁出口激增,这凸显出欧盟对中国供应的 依赖程度高于美国。与此同时,报道渲染称,欧盟对中国稀土过度依赖,使其产业尤其容易受到影响, 且在中美贸易紧张局势中处境脆弱。 即便是随着近期供应量回升,早前的供货紧缺仍在整个欧盟产生了连锁反应。中国欧盟商会9月18日表 示,欧盟企业在今年8月份遭遇了7次生产中断,预计本月还将新增46次停工。 报道称,中国在稀土领域的主导地位已促使欧洲加快寻找替代方案的计划。欧盟的《关键原材料法案》 已于去年生效,其中包括从废旧电子产品中回收更多稀土元素的提议。此外,欧洲电动汽车产业也在寻 找爱沙尼亚等地的稀土供应来源。而在美国,唯一的稀土矿商MP Materials公司计划在今年晚些时候开 始稀土磁铁的商业化生产。 稀土磁铁 资料图 此前,据路透社当地时间9月16日报道,中国欧盟商会当天称,中方依旧对稀土出口严格把控 ...
降息周期开启、反内卷政策助力,稀有金属布局正当时!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 08:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of lithium and rare earth metals amid the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the performance of rare metal ETFs, particularly the 嘉实中证稀有金属ETF (562800) [1][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - The technology sector, particularly communication and electronics, has seen significant gains, with ETFs like the communication ETF (159695) and the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) both exceeding 50% year-to-date [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has also performed well, with an annual increase of 51.05% [4]. - The rare earth ETF 嘉实 (516150) and the rare metal ETF (562800) have recorded year-to-date increases of 64.2% and 51.9%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is expected to enhance liquidity and stimulate demand in the downstream sectors [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is addressing structural supply-side issues, particularly in industries like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [8]. Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have been on the rise, with futures prices increasing over 20% since July [8]. - The lithium sector's listed companies reported a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit, totaling 37.26 billion yuan in the first half of the year [10]. - Demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.386 million tons of LCE by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [11]. Group 4: Rare Earth Market Insights - China holds over one-third of the global rare earth reserves and has a significant share of the global production and processing capacity [15]. - The rare earth prices have surged due to supply chain concerns and increased inventory accumulation by foreign manufacturers [15]. - Companies like 北方稀土 have reported substantial revenue growth, with a 45.2% increase in revenue and a 19-fold increase in net profit year-on-year [15]. Group 5: ETF Overview - The 嘉实中证稀有金属ETF (562800) strategically allocates 40% of its weight to small metals, including rare earths, and 20% to energy metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt [22]. - The ETF has seen a significant increase in fund size, reaching 2.73 billion yuan, with a 119.7% increase in fund shares this year [27].
中方罕见发火,欧盟自讨苦吃,日本态度大变:不同意美国遏华要求
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 04:14
Group 1 - The U.S. is pressuring the EU and G7 to impose tariffs up to 100% on China and India for continuing to purchase Russian oil, which is causing internal discussions within the EU about potential sanctions against these countries [1] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that imposing high tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil is challenging, emphasizing Japan's close economic ties with China and the potential negative impact on its own supply chain [3] - The EU shows hesitation in responding to U.S. pressure, reflecting a lack of independent stance, while also addressing concerns over China's rare earth export controls that are affecting European businesses [5] Group 2 - Japan has previously made significant concessions, including a commitment of $550 billion in investments, to secure tariff exemptions, indicating a cautious approach towards U.S. demands [3] - China's position on rare earth exports is clear: it aims to protect this non-renewable resource and is willing to grant export licenses to qualified foreign companies, countering Western narratives about its trade practices [5] - The U.S. strategy of pressuring allies to impose tariffs on China to stop its oil purchases from Russia is seen as ineffective, underestimating China's ability to respond [5]