Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market was influenced by factors such as South American production expectations, Sino-US trade relations, US soybean growing - season weather, Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties, and sufficient Brazilian soybean arrivals. Under the pressure of a generally loose supply pattern, the futures price continued to fluctuate in a low - level range [3]. - The December USDA report shows that the US soybean yield per unit and export volume remain unchanged, and there is limited room for adjustment in US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of February 2026, with 5.5 - 6 million tons already purchased, and the current purchase pace is acceptable. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase in 2026 [3]. - Brazil has completed soybean sowing, and Argentina's sowing progress is about 50%. The current South American weather is favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The combined soybean output of the two countries is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year, and the loose supply pattern continues [3]. - From January to October 2025, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Domestic feed demand will slow down next year as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity. Global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, mainly due to the expansion of US production capacity and the development of biodiesel policies, and a small increase in Brazilian biodiesel [3]. - Assuming continued bumper harvests in South American producing areas, an increase in the US soybean planting area, and maintaining the trend yield per unit, domestic soybean meal demand will slow down slightly due to the reduction of production capacity in the breeding sector. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the upside and downside spaces are both limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - From January to the Spring Festival in 2024, the continuous soybean meal contract rebounded after an oversell due to factors such as the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit in the January USDA report, disruptions in the Argentine producing area, slow initial harvesting progress in Brazil, and the short - term emotional support from tariff policy expectations. From February to March 2025, the price fluctuated widely. The acceleration of the Brazilian harvest, improved crop forecasts in Argentina, and the cooling of tariff policy speculation weakened the upward momentum, while the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the loosening supply of soybean meal suppressed the price. From April to May, the price first rose sharply and then fell. The sharp increase in US tariffs, the decline in the US soybean planting area, and the slowdown of the soybean clearance rhythm supported the price, but the subsequent large - scale arrival of Brazilian soybeans led to a continuous decline. From June to July, the price first rose and then fell due to weather - related factors and supply expectations. In August, the price rose due to the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean planting area. From late August to mid - October, the price weakened due to sufficient supply from Brazilian soybeans. From late October to the present, the price first rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and then fell due to factors such as the slow progress of US soybean exports and the good weather in South American producing areas [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report shows that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons; the global soybean crushing demand is 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons; the global soybean ending inventory is 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.01%, slightly tightened compared with the previous year. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose [10]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area remains at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit at 53 bushels per acre, the export demand at 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 6.74%. The total planting area of US soybeans, corn, and wheat has been relatively stable in recent years. In 2025, the US soybean planting area was the lowest in the past five years. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase to 84 million acres in 2026 [16]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 227.647 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/26 season is 4.5%. As of the end of October 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.305 billion pounds [21]. 2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were 1.248 million tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, lower than 55.5% in the same period last year. After the Sino - US high - level meeting in late October, China restarted the purchase of US soybeans. As of early December, China's purchase volume is estimated to be between 5.5 and 6 million tons, and the US expects China to purchase 12 million tons by the end of February 2026. The December USDA report made no adjustments to export demand, and the subsequent adjustment space is limited [25]. 2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The November USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 175 million tons, the export demand at 112.5 million tons (an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year), and the crushing demand at 59 million tons (an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year). The ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 20.68%. The export demand has been significantly increased, and China's import structure will further increase the weight of Brazilian soybeans. Brazil's biodiesel policy will lead to a small increase in soybean crushing demand in the future. In 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume in October was 6.73 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 100.64 million tons. The export volume to China in October was 6.17 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 78.93 million tons. As of the week ending November 29, 2025, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was 86%, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest [27][30][33]. 2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 48.5 million tons, the import at 7.7 million tons, the export demand at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand at 41 million tons, and the ending inventory at 22.84 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 40.46%. Due to the reduction of the sowing area, the output is estimated to be 48.5 million tons. The export demand has increased this year, leading to a tightening of the domestic soybean supply and a decline in the crushing demand. The inventory structure is relatively stable. As of the previous week, the soybean sowing progress was 44.7%. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing area is expected to be 25 - 30mm, which is conducive to sowing [34][46]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - According to customs data, China's soybean import volume in October 2025 was 9.48 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 95.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73 million tons. As of the week ending December 2, the purchase progress for December, January, and February shipments is 97%, 56%, and 41% respectively. The 2025/26 purchase volume of US soybeans is about 4 million tons. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of rapeseed from January to October was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed meal in October was 221,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 2.33 million tons. The import structure has changed, with India and Russia as alternative suppliers. The start of the auction of imported soybean reserves can supplement the market supply [47][49]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons. As of the week ending December 5, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 140,280 tons, the daily average提货量 was 184,300 tons, the major oil mill crushing volume was 2.0558 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.49 days. With the decrease in imports and the increase in pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory of oil mills will be depleted faster, supporting the near - term contracts [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. From January to October, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. However, as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity, domestic feed demand will slow down next year [55][56]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated in a low - level range under the influence of various factors and the pressure of a loose supply pattern. The December USDA report shows limited adjustment space for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The South American weather is favorable, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strengthened. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year. The global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, while domestic feed demand will slow down next year. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [68][69].

Group 1 - A new individual business named Qihangge Craft Store has been established in the Dianbai District of Maoming City with a registered capital of 30,000 RMB [1] - The business scope includes the sale and manufacturing of various craft and ceremonial products, excluding ivory and its products, as well as retail of daily necessities and agricultural products [1] - The store is also involved in services such as conference and exhibition services, technical services, and internet sales, among others [1] Group 2 - The business is permitted to engage in activities related to the production and operation of forestry seeds and food sales, subject to approval from relevant authorities [1] - The range of products includes traditional spice products, cosmetics, jewelry, and various agricultural products, indicating a diverse portfolio [1] - The business is allowed to conduct operations autonomously based on its business license, except for projects that require specific approvals [1]

市场快讯---库存大增出口萎缩 棕榈油承压下行 数据来源： 金十数据 | | 马来西亚 | | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 单位:万吨 | 产量 | | 路透预期 | 198 | | | (-396) | | 2025年 | 193.6 | | 11月数据 | (-5.3%) | | 2025年 | 204.4 | | 10月数据 | | | 2024年 | 162.1 | | 11月数据 | | 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月马棕供需数据利空来袭，库存增幅超预期，出口降幅超预期。马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB: 马来西亚11月棕榈油产量为1935510吨，环比减少5.30%。马来西亚11月棕榈油出口为1212814吨，环比减少28.13%。马来西 亚11月棕榈油库存量为2835439吨,环比增长13.04%。马来西亚11月棕榈油进口为23176吨,环比减少36.12%。库存增幅超过 路透预测的266万吨将近17万吨,出口低于路透预期的144万吨23万吨。 2025年12月10日 明末度: 266 (7.78%) 283.5 (+1 3.04%) 246.4 研究员：刘锦 从业资格 F0 ...

本文源自：卓创资讯 目前产区基层低价惜售，筛选厂成本仍有支撑，不过下游市场采购谨慎。截止到12月9日，驻马店、南 阳白沙通货米收购参考3.50-3.95元/斤，8个筛上精米好货装车4.35-4.45元/斤；辽宁产区8个筛上精米装 车5.20-5.30元/斤，成交有限。未来几日东北整体气温下降明显，河南等局部预报也有降雪，基层上货 量或有限，不过批发市场补货不多，刚需不足。观望大油厂成交情况，预计短线产区商品米价格或趋 稳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the significant achievements of Changzhou Customs in safeguarding national security and facilitating high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on the city's foreign trade growth and innovation-driven strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Trade Development - Over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Changzhou's total foreign trade import and export value is projected to reach 1.57376 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 7.9% [3]. - General trade imports and exports are expected to total 1.31501 trillion yuan, growing at an average annual rate of 8.2% [3]. - Private enterprises have shown remarkable performance, with a total import and export value of 904.79 billion yuan and an average annual growth rate of 10.1%, becoming a crucial force for stable foreign trade growth [3]. Group 2: Industry and Innovation - Changzhou is actively promoting the development of 42 advantageous industrial clusters, including new energy, intelligent equipment, biomedicine, and new materials [13]. - The new energy sector has particularly excelled, with exports of "new three samples" products exceeding 149 billion yuan, growing at an average annual rate of 3.1% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [13]. - Changzhou Customs has introduced innovative measures such as the "box-by-box" export model for lithium batteries, saving logistics time by 7-10 days, and established a green channel for export inspections [13]. Group 3: Support for High-tech Enterprises - To support high-tech enterprises in expanding internationally, Changzhou Customs has implemented various facilitation measures, including personalized policy delivery and face-to-face consultations regarding RCEP tariff reductions [8][13]. - The customs authority has optimized the inspection process for high-tech products through smart customs clearance and intelligent supervision, significantly improving efficiency and reducing logistics costs for enterprises [8][13]. - Future initiatives will focus on leveraging regional industrial characteristics, innovating regulatory models, and promoting policies like AEO and RCEP to enhance the business environment and drive open development [13].

软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.3%，报收 63.87 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13740 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11985 手至 47.71 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | 震荡 | | | 14570 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨。国内市场方面，美联储 12 月议息会议临近， | | | | 降息 25bp 几成定局，关注官员讲话对后续降息路径的指引。国内市场方面，近期 | | | | 郑棉期价维持震荡走势。中共中央政治局于 12 月 8 日召开会议，后续还有中央经 | | | | 济工作会议，持续关注相关表述。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公布工商业库 | | | | 存数据反推，11 月棉花月度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数据来看，11 | | | | 月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉花上行驱动减弱。展望未来，当 | | | | 前扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以震荡格局对待。随着时间的推移，棉花 | | | | 供需格局或有转 ...

白糖产业期现日报 元 F / 发期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月10日 70016336 刘珂 | 期货市场情况 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 白糖2601 | 5343 | 5337 | 6 | 0.11% | | | 白糖2605 | 5247 | 5244 | 3 | 0.06% | 元/吨 | | ICE原糖主力 | 14.66 | 14.83 | -0.17 | -1.15% | 美分/磅 | | 白糖1-5价差 | 96 | ਰੇਤੇ | 3 | 3.23% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 260465 | 289716 | -29251 | -10.10% | ਜੇ | | 仓单数量 | 181 | 181 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 有效预报 | 1705 | 1490 | 215 | 14.43% | इर | | 现货市场价格 | | | | | | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical news - driven rebound in oil prices has limited space and sustainability, and there is a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term. Gold and silver markets are affected by US economic data and Fed meetings, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. The prices of various metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian companies and the release of restricted oil supplies. The US oil production is expected to set a larger - than - expected record. The market is concerned about the IEA's December report. The oil price rebound has mostly been reversed, and there is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, with a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is influenced by multiple factors and follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the demand drive is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved, but the demand lacks highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [19]. - **Asphalt**: Some refineries in Hebei have launched winter storage contracts, and the price is higher than market expectations. Some refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residue oil, and the supply has tightened, driving the market price up slightly. The decline of BU following the drop in crude oil prices is limited [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of job openings in the US in October increased, silver reached a new high, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. The market focuses on the Fed meeting, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price adjusted overnight, and some positions took profits when the Fed cut interest rates in December. The market is concerned about the adjustment, and some long positions can be held after taking partial profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly overnight. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited, and the overbought situation in the technical aspect is being repaired [5]. - **Zinc**: The long positions took profits at high prices, and the Shanghai zinc price tested the annual line support. The domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease in December, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to rebound following the external market in the short - term, with a resistance level at 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price of lead reduces the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory in the exchange is low, and there is no obvious squeeze - out risk in the near - term. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement at low prices [9]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated overnight. The Shanghai tin price continued to reduce positions and fell below the moving average. Options strategies can be considered [9]. - **Nickel**: No relevant content provided. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated. The manganese ore spot price increased, and the port inventory has a structural problem. The silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in coal supply, which may lead to a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. The demand has some resilience, and the supply decreased slightly, with the inventory decreasing slightly [17]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the domestic arrival decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore price has a downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations [13]. - **Coke**: The market expects a second - round price cut for coke. The coking profit is average, and the daily output increased slightly. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreased. The total inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price stabilized overnight. The demand for rebar decreased in the off - season, and the output and inventory decreased. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly. The steel mills' profitability is poor, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The black - series products are under pressure in the short - term, and the market is sensitive to macro - policies [12]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon futures strengthened significantly, driven by the news of the establishment of a polycrystalline silicon consortium. The short - term upward expectation exists, but it needs policy verification to break through the upper limit of the range [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon broke through the previous low. The production reduction effect in the southwest region weakened, and the demand from the organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries decreased. The price may continue to decline, but it may be supported at the 8,000 - yuan/ton level [11]. - **Urea**: The urea price decreased slightly. The compound fertilizer enterprises increased their production, and the inventory of urea production enterprises decreased last week. The supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [21]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price continued to decline at night. The inventory at the port is expected to remain high, and the supply along the coast is sufficient. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range [22]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price continued to decline. The port inventory increased, but the supply - demand pressure may be relieved in the future. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend [23]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price decreased, and the pure benzene price may fluctuate within a range, which is difficult to drive the styrene price up. However, the supply - demand structure of styrene has not weakened and may support the price [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene production enterprises' sales are smooth, but the price increase momentum is insufficient. The polyethylene supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply pressure of polypropylene is controllable, but the downstream demand is in the off - season [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price continued to decline. The supply pressure may be relieved if the enterprises are forced to overhaul. The export situation has improved, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price continued to decline, with high supply and low demand, and the industry inventory is under pressure [26]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell at night. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA output increased slightly. The terminal weaving load continued to decline. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to be repaired [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market was boosted by the news of device shutdowns. The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure. The long - term pressure still exists [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber load is high, and the inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The bottle - chip demand is weak, and the production capacity is in surplus, with the price mainly driven by costs [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean data in the December USDA report remained unchanged. The South American weather has improved, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased. The strategy is to wait and see the South American weather, and consider going long if the weather deteriorates [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet remained unchanged in December. Argentina will reduce the export tax on soybeans and their products. The market expects the palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase. The short - term view is that the prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate within a range [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is facing the supply impact of new crops. The supply is at its loosest stage, and the demand lacks positive factors. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import is diversified. The short - term price is expected to be weak [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is in a sideways shock adjustment. The policy will auction imported soybeans. The short - term US soybean price is in a callback, and the medium - term price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the domestic soybean spot and policy [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline in a shock pattern. The US corn export data increased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast is tight, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. The short - term 01 contract may decline, and the 03 and 05 contracts can be considered for long - positions after the decline [37]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 03 contract rebounded slightly, and the far - month contracts were weak. The impact of the epidemic on the pig supply is expected to be limited. The industry needs to reduce inventory, and the pig price may have a second - bottoming in the first half of next year [38]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased. The 01 contract price is expected to be weak due to the convergence of futures and spot prices. The far - month contracts have reached a short - term high [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price increased slightly. The domestic cotton sales progress is fast, but the downstream orders are weak, which limits the cotton price. The operation strategy is to wait and see [40]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated. The sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [41]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price fluctuated at a high level. The cold - storage apple sales are average, and the price is strong. The short - term price is strong, but the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure [42]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but the port delivery increased last week. The low inventory supports the price, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price decreased at night. The port inventory decreased, and the new - year contract may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk's pricing strategy is cautious, and the downward freight rate center is expected to be around $2400 - 2500/FEU. The loading rate is increasing, but the market lacks strong driving factors. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate [18]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market was mixed, and the stock index futures closed down. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision. The A - share market is expected to be strong in a shock pattern, and investors can increase positions slightly at low prices after the uncertainty is relieved [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures fluctuated and adjusted. The interest - rate bond yields decreased. The market is still cautious, and investors can participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties after the liquidity is restored [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month USDA report shows stable data for 2025/26 US soybean production, area, and other aspects compared to November estimates [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production and ending stocks are slightly higher than November estimates [1]. - US soybean crush capacity has expanded, and analysts expect the US October soybean crush volume to reach a record high [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 2025/26 US Soybean Information - Production: Estimated at 4253 million bushels, same as November estimate [1]. - Sown area: 81.1 million acres, unchanged from November [1]. - Harvested area: 80.3 million acres, same as November estimate [1]. - Yield: 53 bushels per acre, consistent with November [1]. - Exports: Estimated at 1635 million bushels, unchanged [1]. - Ending stocks: 290 million bushels, same as November [1]. 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil: Production estimated at 175 million tons, exports at 112.5 million tons, both unchanged from November [1]. - Argentina: Production estimated at 48.5 million tons, exports at 8.25 million tons, unchanged [1]. - China: Imports estimated at 112 million tons, same as November [1]. - Global: Production estimated at 422.54 million tons (up from 421.75 million tons in November), ending stocks at 122.37 million tons (up from 121.99 million tons in November) [1]. Other Information - Unplantable US soybean area: 1.268 million acres in December report, up from 1.262 million acres in September [1]. - US October soybean crush: Analysts expect it to reach a record - high 234.2 million bushels, 8.6% higher than in October 2024 [1]. - US October 31 soybean oil inventory: Based on average of three analysts, estimated at 1717 million pounds, 7.8% higher than in October 2024 [1]. - Brazil December soybean exports: Expected to be 3.33 million tons (up from 2.81 million tons last week) [1]. - Brazil December soybean meal exports: Expected to be 1.83 million tons (up from 1.33 million tons last week) [1]. - Argentina: Reduced soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and soybean by - product export tax from 24.5% to 22.5% [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed: Production estimated at 95.273 million tons (up 9.274 million tons year - on - year), ending stocks at 12.499 million tons (up 2.649 million tons year - on - year) [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | 2510 | 8580 | 8680 | 10000 | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | [2]

棉花棉纱 棉花 棉纱 日期 3128 进口M级美棉 CotlookA(F E) 进口利润 仓单+预报 越南纱 现货 越南纱进口利 润 32S纺纱利润 2025/12/03 14570 73.8 74.8 1542 4889 2.53 21000 472 -298 2025/12/04 14585 73.8 74.7 1569 5385 2.53 21020 487 -294 2025/12/05 14580 73.5 74.2 1647 5490 2.53 21020 488 -289 2025/12/08 14580 - - - 5757 2.53 21020 491 -289 2025/12/09 14570 - - - 6070 - 21020 - -278 变化 -10 - - - 313 - 0 - 11 【行情分析】： 棉花：新棉收购基本完成，总产量预估较此前有所下调。中美釜山会谈结果较好，再次互相降低关税，利好我国纺服出口，整体外部氛围较4月 有好转，因此估值方面也难回到4月低点，适合长期做多。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/10 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | ...