报告围绕2024年夏日相关的设计、产品和营销趋势展开，呈现多领域的流行趋势和创新方向，为相关行业提供参考。 1. 设计趋势：2024印花图案趋势：2024年各大时装周上，植物花卉、几何图案成为设计热门。几何元素通过创新组合，展现高级时尚感，如Mario Carpe为 Collective Arts Rhubarb & Hibiscus Gin设计的包装，以及Milomade的陶瓷杯；条纹元素融合怀旧与创新，路易威登2024春夏系列用条纹致敬法式优雅，Hub 美妆品牌包装也体现了复古与现代的结合；花卉元素为设计增添生机，CHANEL、BURBERRY等品牌运用花卉展现不同风格，Luxerose鸡尾酒和富兰克林 山气泡水的包装设计也运用花卉元素凸显特色；波西米亚图案体现工艺之美，爱马仕和Elie Saab的服装以及隅田川咖啡豆包装、波西米亚风抱枕都展现了这 一风格 。 2. 产品趋势：2024夏日主题产品趋势：夏日营销季备受关注，品牌聚焦夏日生活小事，从好用实用、情绪价值、审美在线、引领趋势四个方面推出相关产 品。如超大号遮阳草帽、冰雾扇等实用产品；夏日清柚香氛、原神美味派对小亚克力立牌等提供情绪价值的产品；自带 ...

Core Insights - The growth of quality original brands continues, with over 4,100 brands on Tmall achieving over 100 million in transactions in 2024, maintaining a growth rate of 20% [1] - Tmall's strategic resource allocation focuses on merchant incentives, new product support, brand membership, quality live streaming, and user growth to expand the business ecosystem and ensure sustainable development [1][3] Group 1: Brand Support Strategies - Tmall's support for quality merchants is a long-term strategy aimed at maintaining high-value supply in the ecosystem amidst industry profit erosion due to market competition [4] - By the end of March, 90% of brands in beauty, apparel, and outdoor sports achieved double-digit growth targets through commission trials [5] - Tmall's systematic support strategy for quality brands is set to expand across all industries with high-frequency coverage throughout the year [6] Group 2: New Product Launches - Tmall launched 4,500 super new products in 2024, generating a total transaction of 100 billion, with 34,000 super single products achieving over 10 million in sales [10] - The competition for new products is fundamentally a battle for consumer attention, with the probability of new products becoming bestsellers decreasing [11][13] - Tmall has lowered the entry barriers for new products, allowing emerging brands with limited budgets to participate in the market [16] Group 3: User and Membership Growth - There are still 11.8 billion user relationships that have not become members, indicating significant potential for membership growth [27] - Tmall's data shows that over 50% of business from top brands is contributed by brand members, highlighting the importance of membership in driving sales [29] - The platform is enhancing membership operations to convert private domain activity into public domain traffic, creating a positive cycle of membership growth and sales increase [34] Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The consumer market is witnessing a shift towards value-driven consumption, with brands focusing on product innovation rather than low prices [46][48] - Tmall's internal observations indicate that the growth in the sports category is primarily driven by female consumers, suggesting a shift in target demographics [48] - The platform aims to create real value for users rather than being driven by short-term sales anxiety, indicating a long-term vision for brand growth [51]

Core Insights - The skincare market for international brands like Estée Lauder and L'Oréal is facing challenges, prompting a shift towards the medical aesthetics sector [1][4] - Estée Lauder has partnered with Jiahui Medical to establish a clinical research center focused on post-surgical skincare solutions [1][5] - The beauty industry is witnessing a trend towards "medical beauty," with brands integrating effective skincare products with medical aesthetics [4][6] Group 1: Company Strategies - Estée Lauder's brands, including La Mer and Clinique, are launching medical device products aimed at post-surgical recovery, indicating a strategic pivot towards medical aesthetics [1][5] - L'Oréal has been proactive in the medical aesthetics space, introducing products like the "Platinum Research" collagen injection and investing in high-end medical chains [6][7] - Amorepacific has also entered the market with its high-end brand "AP," focusing on post-surgical skincare products priced between 2000-3000 RMB [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high-end skincare market is experiencing a significant decline, with Estée Lauder reporting an 8% drop in skincare sales in Q3 2024 and a further 12% in Q4 2024, leading to a total revenue loss of $300 million [4] - Competitors like Beiersdorf are also struggling, with its luxury brand La Prairie seeing a 15% sales decline in 2023 and a 6% drop in 2024 [4] - The domestic medical aesthetics market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Aimeike facing growth slowdowns despite a 5.45% revenue increase in 2024 [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - Aimeike's acquisition of an 85% stake in Korean company REGEN for approximately 1.4 billion RMB highlights the need for companies to strengthen their technological capabilities in the face of rising competition [11] - The competition between international beauty brands and domestic medical aesthetics firms is intensifying, focusing on brand strength and clinical validation versus technological barriers and channel control [11]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.885 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.61% [1] - The profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 881 million, an increase of 33.04% year-on-year, with earnings per share of RMB 2.18 and a proposed final dividend of RMB 0.72 per share [1] - The company expanded its high-end department store channels, entering new locations such as Wuhan SKP, Chengdu SKP, and Hangzhou Tower, with over 378 self-operated counters and 31 dealer counters across more than 120 cities [1] Group 2 - The company's makeup skills training business achieved a revenue of RMB 152 million in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 45.8%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2] - The company enhanced its training offerings by introducing personal IP development courses and upgraded its online training platform to disseminate its beauty art concepts more effectively [2] - The company aims to support women in their beauty journeys, aligning with its mission to empower every woman to look beautiful [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of new consumption companies listed in Hong Kong, with many achieving significant stock price increases and attracting investor attention amid ongoing market fluctuations [2][4][13]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On March 27, several new consumption companies saw substantial stock price increases, including Wei Long (up 11.43%), San Sheng Pharmaceutical (up 10.91%), Pop Mart (up 9.24%), Lao Pu Gold (up 9.23%), and Mao Ge Ping (up 9%) [5][6][7][8]. - Wei Long's stock has risen 92.22% year-to-date, driven by its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect and strong sales performance, with a 30% sales growth in early 2025 [5][9]. - San Sheng Pharmaceutical's stock has increased 97.37% year-to-date, with a reported revenue of 9.108 billion yuan for 2024, a 16.5% increase year-on-year [9][10]. - Pop Mart's stock has surged over 71% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of 206.4 billion HKD and a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 106.9% year-on-year growth [10][11]. - Lao Pu Gold's stock has nearly doubled year-to-date, with a projected net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 236% to 260% increase [12][13]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "self-indulgent consumption" sector, including spicy snacks, unique gold jewelry, trendy toys, cosmetics, and male grooming products, is gaining traction among investors [14][15]. - Investment firms are increasingly focusing on the new consumption sector, with some managers already allocating positions to these companies, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards non-essential purchases [16][17]. - The article notes a K-shaped recovery in domestic consumption, where sectors like pet food and self-indulgent consumption are thriving, while traditional consumer goods face pressure [14][15].

Core Insights - The peak profitability period for Han Shu has likely passed, with a notable decline in revenue growth in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [3][4][22] - Han Shu's revenue surged by 80.9% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 5.591 billion RMB, contributing significantly to the overall revenue growth of the company [1][8] - The competitive landscape in the beauty industry is shifting, with increased participation in short drama marketing leading to higher costs and reduced effectiveness for Han Shu [5][19][26] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the total revenue of Shangmei Co. increased by 62.1% to 6.793 billion RMB, with a profit of 803 million RMB, marking a 74% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The main brand Han Shu accounted for a significant portion of this growth, with a total revenue of 5.591 billion RMB [1][8] - The company's marketing expenses rose sharply, with sales and distribution costs reaching 3.95 billion RMB, a 76% increase, and marketing expenses alone growing by 90% to 3.317 billion RMB [27][28] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The beauty market is experiencing a transformation, with domestic brands like Han Shu and Pechoin gaining market share as international brands face declining sales [29][30] - The domestic beauty market saw a 7.46% increase in sales in 2024, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the skincare market [30][33] - The influx of brands into short drama marketing has diluted Han Shu's competitive advantage, as other brands like Pechoin and international players also engage in similar marketing strategies [5][26] Group 3: Marketing Strategy - Han Shu's previous success was largely attributed to its early investment in short drama marketing, which generated significant sales and brand exposure [12][14] - However, the effectiveness of short drama marketing has diminished, with reports indicating a 40-fold decrease in marketing effectiveness despite increased costs [21][22] - The company is now shifting focus towards offline channels, emphasizing the importance of a balanced marketing strategy that includes both online and offline efforts [23][24]

Core Insights - The live streaming industry is experiencing challenges such as traffic saturation and conversion fatigue, yet JD's data shows that the number of merchants using digital humans for live streaming has increased by over 200% year-on-year, indicating a significant growth opportunity [1] - JD's Yansai digital human has become a new growth driver for leading brands like Balabala, Anta, and Tongchen Beijian, with over 9,000 brands adopting this technology, resulting in a GMV increment of over 14 billion [1] - The integration of DeepSeek has enhanced the content generation capabilities for digital human live streams, with a 90% reference rate for generated scripts [1] Group 1: Digital Human Applications - Balabala has utilized Yansai digital humans to address unique consumer pain points in the children's clothing sector, operating nearly 10 specialized live streaming rooms to cater to fragmented shopping needs during late-night hours [4] - The digital human can provide precise responses based on a vast knowledge base, significantly improving order conversion efficiency, with digital human live streams accounting for 15% of total GMV in February [4] - Anta has created a high-fidelity digital human live streaming experience in its offline flagship store, allowing consumers to experience product details and showcasing over 30 popular outfits, achieving a conversion rate of 32.06% during the 2024 JD 11.11 event [6][7] Group 2: Beauty and Fashion Integration - High-end beauty brands are leveraging Yansai digital humans to maintain a professional and upscale brand image while providing detailed product knowledge and enhancing consumer engagement during key shopping events [10] - A specific international high-end beauty brand has customized a digital human "beauty consultant" to create an immersive shopping atmosphere, resulting in a nearly 10% conversion rate [10] - The rapid growth of Yansai digital humans is attributed to technological advancements, including low-cost, high-fidelity human modeling and multi-modal interactive response technologies, significantly reducing production costs [12]

作 者丨唐唯珂，实习生周家怡 编 辑丨骆一帆，江佩佩 价格 差异超过1 9倍 ！"临期特价" "保税仓发货" 已然成为各个种草平台吸引消费者购买美妆 产品的"新幌子"， 线上平台成为美妆假货"重灾区"。 美妆假货全链路造假，从生产到免税仓发货一条龙 近日， 广东3 1 5晚会曝光低价大牌化妆品，已形成从高仿生产到回收瓶罐装，再到免税仓发货 的全链路造假。 近日，2 1世纪经济报道记者通过1 6 8 8等网上销售平台搜索相关大牌产品名时 发现， 尽管相关产品下架，但是仍然存在"大牌平替"的仿造产品。 图源：闪电新闻视频截图 根据广东3 1 5晚会的披露，部分大牌化妆品在小红书平台售价低于专柜价， 同样是1 5 0毫升规 格的海蓝之谜精粹水在小红书平台售价仅7 9元至4 0 0元，而专柜价为1 5 2 0元，差异超过1 9倍 。 记 者 购 买 的 5 瓶 样 品 中，多 个 商 品 发 货 地 为 深 圳 保 税 仓，并 带 有 " 离 岛 免 税 " 字 样 。 （小红书商城显示的海蓝之谜精粹水商品） 贴标产品擦边大牌 海蓝之谜 "平替" 成本仅3 4 . 2 2元 不仅是小红书平台，在其他平台"擦边"大牌的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market in the next 3 to 6 months, indicating an early stage of asset revaluation and gradual stabilization of fundamentals [3][8]. Core Insights - Economic data for January-February 2025 shows a stable start, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in retail sales, driven by online channels [3][4]. - The report highlights a recovery in the home furnishing sector starting from early March, with key recommended companies including Gujia, Xilinmen, and Sophia [3][15]. - The technology growth sectors, particularly in computing power, cloud computing, and AI applications, are identified as key investment themes [3][8]. - The bond market is expected to present trading opportunities due to anticipated monetary policy easing after the second quarter [3][10]. - The commodity market is experiencing a mild recovery, with a strong outlook for non-ferrous metals and a bearish view on black metals [3][11]. Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with infrastructure investment up by 10% and manufacturing investment up by 9% [5]. - The real estate market shows a decline in investment, with a 9.8% year-on-year drop, but new housing prices are stabilizing [5][26]. - The retail sector shows a mixed performance, with essential goods maintaining growth while discretionary items like sports and office supplies perform well [3][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The beauty sector shows significant recovery, with online sales growth of 18% in January-February, highlighting strong performance from domestic brands [3][16][17]. - The dining and hotel industry is experiencing growth, with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in restaurant sales, although some brands face challenges [3][22][23]. - The agricultural sector, particularly in pork and poultry, is expected to benefit from policy-driven consumption recovery, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs showing improved market share [3][24][25]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and companies with stable regional economic prospects for investment [3][21]. - In the construction materials sector, companies like China National Building Material and Anhui Conch Cement are recommended due to potential price increases [3][27][28]. - For the home improvement sector, companies such as Three Trees and North New Materials are highlighted for their expected demand recovery [3][29].

Core Viewpoint - L'Oréal has recalled all batches of its Effaclar Duo acne treatment product in the US due to the detection of trace amounts of benzene, a recognized carcinogen, although the recall does not affect the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Product Recall Details - The recall is limited to the US and Canada, with L'Oréal confirming that the product containing benzoyl peroxide (BPO) is not sold in China [1]. - This incident marks the second occurrence of benzene-related issues for L'Oréal products this year [1]. Group 2: Product Composition and Safety - The main ingredient in Effaclar Duo is benzoyl peroxide, which can lead to the formation of benzene due to its instability [1]. - The National Medical Products Administration of China has prohibited the use of benzoyl peroxide in cosmetics since May 2021 [1]. Group 3: Consumer Safety Commitment - L'Oréal has stated its commitment to consumer safety and has been working closely with the FDA to address the issue [2]. - The company has faced multiple class-action lawsuits in the US regarding other BPO acne treatment products, but maintains that all its products undergo strict quality control and safety testing [2].