证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current appreciation of the RMB is driven by unique factors that differ from historical trends, including improved overseas profitability of Chinese companies, global distrust of the US dollar, and policy shifts aimed at supporting domestic demand through "taxation" on foreign trade [1][15]. Group 1: Unique Indicators of Current RMB Appreciation - The current RMB appreciation cycle, starting in Q2 2025, shows distinct signs such as underperformance of Hong Kong stocks, low expectations for US-China economic dynamics, and continued foreign capital outflow from A-shares [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that the simultaneous occurrence of these signs makes it difficult to associate them with sustained RMB appreciation [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Current RMB Appreciation - Chinese companies' increasing ability to generate profits overseas has led to significant demand for currency conversion, with a record trade surplus of $118.89 billion in 2025, up 19.78% year-on-year [7]. - The demand for physical assets by global speculative funds is rising, reflecting concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [11]. - China's ability and willingness to "export inflation" through trade policy shifts from merely expanding scale to stabilizing supply chains and controlling risks enhances the attractiveness of quality Chinese assets to global investors [13]. Group 3: Impact of RMB Appreciation on Industries - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to benefit from RMB appreciation, particularly those with high import dependency for raw materials and low export dependency for finished goods [30]. - Beneficial industries include upstream resource products (steel, non-ferrous metals), domestic consumer goods (agriculture, light manufacturing), service-related sectors (transportation, retail), and manufacturing equipment [30]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Manage RMB Appreciation - To mitigate rapid unilateral appreciation, potential policy responses may include moderate monetary easing and relaxing restrictions on foreign financial investments, which could enhance asset allocation and returns [35]. - Specific industries may benefit from policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and supporting overseas production bases, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and textiles [36]. Group 5: Investment Strategies in the Context of RMB Appreciation - Investment strategies should focus on three key drivers: short-term muscle memory, profit margin changes, and policy shifts [38]. - Industries with historical price elasticity during RMB appreciation, such as aviation and utilities, should be prioritized [38]. - Sectors with high import dependency and low export reliance are likely to see profit margin improvements, including upstream resources and domestic consumer goods [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in investor behavior towards more stable and diversified asset management strategies, moving away from high-risk, short-term trading approaches [1][2][3] - Investors are increasingly seeking personalized financial planning and investment advice, indicating a growing reliance on professional wealth management services [3] - The trend shows that experienced investors are focusing on long-term financial products, such as pension funds, reflecting a broader change in financial awareness among residents [3][4] Group 2 - There is a noticeable increase in inquiries about stable investment directions and robust portfolio construction among investors, suggesting a demand for more structured financial guidance [2][3] - The transformation of brokerage services is evident, as firms are shifting from traditional product sales to comprehensive wealth management services that include personalized adjustments and ongoing support [3] - The role of investment advisors is evolving, requiring them to be more professional and knowledgeable to meet the increasing sophistication of investors [3]

当地时间2月10日，美股市场呈现出显著的分化格局。在道琼斯工业平均指数盘中刷新历史新高的同 时，纳斯达克指数与标普500指数却由涨转跌，回吐早盘涨幅。与此同时，国际大宗商品市场维持弱势 震荡，地缘政治风险因特朗普的最新表态而再度升温。 在国际贵金属市场，金价与银价延续弱势震荡态势。截至北京时间2月11日5:50，COMEX黄金期货与伦 敦金现货价格分别报5048.8美元/盎司和5022.85美元/盎司，微跌0.6%和0.71%；白银价格波动更甚， COMEX白银期货跌超2%，伦敦银现货跌超3%，分别徘徊在80.475美元/盎司和80.711美元/盎司附近。 中信期货研判认为，在金价维持高位运行的背景下，白银仍具备相对收益空间，但需警惕高波动环境下 的阶段性回撤风险。 原油方面，NYMEX原油期货与ICE布油期货主力合约微跌，分别报64.19美元/桶和69.01美元/桶。信达 期货分析指出，原油市场逻辑已从事件驱动溢价切换至基本面交易，中期来看，"供应过剩"压力是更可 持续的定价锚，空头主导格局明确，油价趋势性承压概率较大。 消息面上，地缘政治不确定性为市场增添变数。据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间2月1 ...

来源：滚动播报 2026年以来，港股IPO市场持续活跃，募资金额已超790亿港元，同比增长超1220%。澜起科技、牧原股 份、大族数控等A股上市公司已在港股上市，"A+H"上市模式持续升温。数据显示，截至2月10日记者 发稿时，共计422家企业在港交所排队，超100家为2026年以来递表。在排队港股IPO的企业中，极米科 技、和林微纳、悦康药业等超110家企业已在A股上市。机构人士表示，香港IPO市场回暖是制度优化与 流动性宽松共振的结果，2026年港股IPO市场预计持续保持热度，增长节奏趋于稳健。（中证报） ...

2月8日，泰国举行全国大选，将选举产生500名国会下议院议员。 我们认为尽管短期内政策框架可能调整、市场或出现波动，但大选亦有望成为经济复苏 的催化剂。 泰国2026年大选或将成为政治格局重构的转折点 点击小程序查看报告原文 2023至2026年间，泰国政局经历频繁更迭，三年内先后有三任总理执政。2024年8月，赛塔·他威信（Srettha Thavisin）因内阁任命争议被宪法法院罢免。 继任者佩通坦·钦那瓦（Paetongtarn Shinawatra）执政约一年后，于2025年8月被解除总理职务。同年9月，自豪泰党领袖阿努廷·参威拉军（Anutin Charnvirakul）在与人民党达成联合执政协议后就任总理。为履行此前为争取支持而作出的承诺，阿努廷于2025年12月宣布解散下议院，提前举行大选。 根据2017年宪法，这是首次由民选议员完全主导总理人选与政府组建的选举，军方任命的参议员不再参与总理投票。本次大选同步举行了关于是否修改 2017年宪法的全民公投。截至2月9日中午的初步民调显示，约59.8%的选民支持修宪[1]。 初步计票显示自豪泰党大幅领先 根据选举委员会截至2月9日中午的统计（计票率约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in Hong Kong's economic and financial landscape have garnered significant attention, with a notable increase in IPO activities and GDP growth projected for 2025, indicating a robust recovery and expansion trend since 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - In 2025, Hong Kong is expected to host 119 IPOs, with a substantial increase in financing, leading the global market [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has implemented new IPO regulations in August 2025, enhancing the pricing and allocation mechanisms for new stocks and lowering the listing thresholds for "A+H" issuers [1][2]. - Southbound capital from mainland China has reached a record net buy of 1,404.84 billion HKD in 2025, contributing to the influx of funds into the Hong Kong stock market [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The supportive policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission since 2024 have encouraged leading mainland enterprises to list in Hong Kong [1]. - The international capital influx is driven by a weaker US dollar and global liquidity easing, with long-term stable foreign investments becoming predominant in the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Contributions - The listing rules for unprofitable biotech companies and specialized technology firms have spurred the entry of high-tech enterprises, optimizing the industrial structure and leading to market valuation premiums [2]. - The majority of new companies established in Hong Kong in 2025 are engaged in import-export trade, wholesale, and retail, reflecting Hong Kong's status as an international trade and financial hub [3]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology Focus - The Hong Kong government has prioritized the development of an international innovation and technology center, aligning with national strategies to enhance technological self-reliance and productivity [4]. - The synergy between technology, finance, and industry is expected to drive economic growth and support the upgrading of Hong Kong's industrial structure [4]. Group 5: Future Development Directions - Future national development priorities include promoting supply-side structural reforms, deepening demand-side reforms, and expanding high-level openness, with Hong Kong playing a crucial role in enhancing national competitiveness [5]. - To achieve these goals, Hong Kong needs to strengthen its hard and soft power, improve the business environment, and explore opportunities in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and green finance [5].

农历腊月二十二，阳光洒满上海淮海中路，一串串红灯笼沿街悬挂。春节临近，年味渐浓。位于淮 海国际广场31楼的光大证券淮海中路营业部，仍有一拨拨投资者前来办理业务。 刚在该营业部办理完业务的陈先生告诉中国证券报记者，他做投资已有十多年的时间，在经历过几 轮市场周期后，心态发生了明显转变。他说："以前总想着追涨停、博短期高收益，现在无论是买股票 还是买理财产品，都更注重资产的保值增值和风险控制。"目前，陈先生配置的固收类产品占比过半， 权益类投资兼顾科技成长与高股息蓝筹，且通过ETF工具分散投资风险。 在王海的建议下，周磊的配置逐渐有了变化，以货币基金作为"安全垫"，新增"固收+"、多元资产 组合等中低波动产品，并通过ETF和可转债间接参与权益市场。"回撤小、睡得着，年化收益反而比以 前强。更关键的是，我再也不用天天盯盘，也能把精力放到本职工作及陪伴家人上，这才是双赢。"如 今，周磊成了王海所在营业部的"义务宣传员"，常带同事来咨询资产配置方案。 光大证券淮海中路营业部相关负责人告诉记者，近年来，居民理财意识普遍增强，更加追求资产多 元化配置，对基金、股票、保险等多种金融产品有配置需求。个人投资者对专业理财服务的依 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the change of the sponsor representative for the ongoing supervision of the initial public offering (IPO) of Chenxin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. by Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Change of Sponsor Representative - Zhongtai Securities has appointed Suo Jianpeng as the new sponsor representative to replace Zeng Liping, who has been reassigned to other responsibilities [1] - The ongoing supervision will continue until the obligations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange are fulfilled [1] Group 2: Acknowledgment of Contributions - The board of directors expresses gratitude for Zeng Liping's contributions during her tenure as the sponsor representative [2] Group 3: Background of New Representative - Suo Jianpeng is the Vice President of the Investment Banking Business Committee at Zhongtai Securities and has previously participated in various IPO projects [3]

Core Insights - The investment mindset of individual investors is shifting towards risk control and asset preservation rather than chasing high short-term returns [1][3] - There is a growing demand for personalized financial planning and investment advice among individual investors, reflecting a deeper reliance on professional wealth management services [3] Group 1: Changing Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly focusing on diversified asset allocation, with a significant portion of their investments in fixed-income products and low-volatility options [1][2] - The trend shows a decline in the number of investors seeking specific product inquiries, while more are looking for comprehensive investment strategies [1][3] Group 2: Role of Financial Advisors - Financial advisors are becoming essential as investors seek tailored investment solutions and guidance to navigate the complexities of the market [3] - The transformation of brokerage services is evident, moving from traditional product sales to providing high-quality wealth management services that include ongoing personalized adjustments [3] Group 3: Long-term Investment Planning - There is an increasing awareness among investors about the importance of long-term financial planning, including retirement and education funds [4] - Investors are learning to adopt a patient approach to investing, valuing stability and peace of mind over constant market monitoring [4]