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黑色金属周报合集-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 12:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the loosening fundamentals and mixed macro - level factors [8]. - Steel prices will experience wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances, with steel demand peaking and negative feedback pressure intensifying [68]. - The alloy market will show an oscillating trend due to the game between macro - drivers and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and steel production rhythms [128][129]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Australian shipments are rising, with BHP and Fortescue having strong end - of - fiscal - year impulse, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Non - mainstream mines in Peru have not fully recovered, and domestic mines in Southwest and North China have reduced production due to inspections [7][8][20][32]. - **Demand**: Although the decline of hot metal is slow, port throughput has dropped rapidly, and the production of five major steel products has decreased steeply, indicating a possible change in the strong - reality situation. The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively neutral [8][38][39]. - **Inventory**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [43][45]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices are in narrow - range oscillation, spot prices are weak, the medium - low grade spread is narrowing, the 9 - 1 spread has narrowed, and the basis has converged [10][15][53][57][60]. 3.2 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand of various steel products are generally declining. For rebar, new - home sales are low, and demand is seasonally weak. For hot - rolled coil, demand is weakening both domestically and in exports [67][79][83][100][103][104]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the de - stocking of steel mills has slowed down. For hot - rolled coil, inventory has slightly accumulated [85][107]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have different trends, and there is still room for the compression of the futures profit [93][113]. - **Spread**: There are opportunities for reverse spreads in the off - season for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [75][95]. 3.3 Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Supply**: Silicon iron supply has slightly decreased, while manganese silicon supply has continued to rebound, with obvious production increases in Ningxia [130][140]. - **Demand**: Demand is gradually peaking. Steel mill inventory days are decreasing, and the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking is shrinking, but non - steel demand shows different trends [130][153]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [130]. - **Price and Profit**: Futures prices show different trends, with silicon iron rebounding slightly and manganese silicon oscillating. Spot prices are weak, and both spot and futures profits are under pressure [134][135].
宝城期货铁矿石周度数据-20250613
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 05:50
本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,933.14 106.45 13,866.58 66.56 14,892.62 -959.48 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,798.68 108.50 8,754.33 44.35 9,249.91 -451.23 45港铁矿石到货量 2,609.30 72.80 2,151.30 458.00 2,436.40 172.90 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,510.40 79.40 3,188.70 321.70 3,031.60 478.80 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.61 -0.19 241.91 -0.30 239.31 2.30 45港日均疏港量 301.25 -12.74 326.68 -25.43 309.38 -8.13 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 300.43 -0.05 299.68 0.75 292.91 7.52 主港铁矿成交周均值 86.00 -3.98 96.94 -10.94 113.90 -27.90 数据来源:我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据(20250613) 库存 供给 需求 1 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250613
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:12
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年06月13日08时12分 报告导读: 消息面上,中美两国经贸谈判达成框架,但分歧依然存在。我的钢铁公布的数据显示,本周螺纹产量有所回落,厂库下降,社库继续回落,总库存 下降,表观需求环比继续回落,数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看,表观需求高峰期已过,随着雨季和高温天气的到来, 需求将进一步走弱,且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看,目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 。从技术上看,期价短暂反弹后回落,大概率后市仍有可 能二次探底 操作建议: 维持观望。待二次探底后逢低做多 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2968 | -23 | -0.77% | 9 | 0.30% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3080 | -28 | -0.90% | 3 | 0.10% | | | 螺纹 ...
铁矿石早报-20250613
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:45
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report date: June 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Spot Market Data - **Australia mainstream ores**: The latest price of Platts 62 Index is 95.75, with a daily change of 0.80 and a weekly change of -0.60; Newman powder is 711, down 2 daily and 10 weekly; PB powder is 722, down 2 daily and 5 weekly; etc. [2] - **Brazil mainstream ores**: The latest price of Bahia Blend is 740, down 2 daily and 9 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 695, down 2 daily and 5 weekly; etc. [2] - **Non - mainstream ores**: The latest price of Ukrainian concentrate powder is 794, down 8 daily and unchanged weekly; 61% Indian powder is 647, down 8 daily and 17 weekly; etc. [2] - **Domestic ores**: The latest price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 907, down 6 daily and 7 weekly [2] Group 3: Futures Market Data - **DCE contracts**: The latest price of i2601 is 671.0, down 3.0 daily and up 6.0 weekly; i2605 is 650.5, down 2.5 daily and up 4.0 weekly; i2509 is 704.0, down 3.0 daily and up 3.0 weekly [2] - **SGX contracts**: The latest price of FE01 is 92.38, up 0.99 daily and 0.31 weekly; FE05 is 90.78, up 1.03 daily and 0.52 weekly; FE09 is 94.08, up 0.78 daily and down 0.02 weekly [2] Group 4: Other Data - **Premium data**: The latest price of PB lump/lump ore premium is 869, down 2 daily and 6 weekly; U - ball/pellet premium is 794, down 8 daily and unchanged weekly [2] - **Basis and spread data**: The latest basis of i2601 is 77.7, up 0.8 daily and down 15.7 weekly; the monthly spread of i2601 is 33.0 [2]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250613
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the fundamentals remaining weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. However, due to the large discount of the futures price, there is resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of long - and short - term factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore price fluctuates at a low level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, with continuous inventory accumulation. During the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, with the weakening demand trend remaining unchanged. On the contrary, overseas miners are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year, and even though domestic ore production is restricted and its output has decreased, the supply pressure of ore remains. [2]
铁矿石早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:26
Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 12, 2025 [1] Key Points 1. Iron Ore Spot Prices - Newman powder: The latest price is 713, with a daily change of +5 and a weekly change of -13. The import profit is -33.51 [2]. - PB powder: The latest price is 724, with a daily change of +5 and a weekly change of -8. The import profit is -6.36 [2]. - Mac fine: The latest price is 702, with a daily change of +2 and a weekly change of -9. The import profit is -10.42 [2]. - Jinbuba: The latest price is 675, with a daily change of +5 and a weekly change of -12. The import profit is -11.90 [2]. - Mainstream mixed powder: The latest price is 655, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of +2. The import profit is 7.12 [2]. - Super special powder: The latest price is 619, with a daily change of +4 and a weekly change of 0. The import profit is 3.46 [2]. - Carajás fines: The latest price is 819, with a daily change of +4 and a weekly change of -5. The import profit is 7.78 [2]. - Brazilian blended ore: The latest price is 742, with a daily change of +5 and a weekly change of -12. The import profit is -7.52 [2]. 2. Exchange Contract Prices - i2601: The latest price is 674.0, with a daily change of +10.5 and a weekly change of +8.0. The monthly spread is 33.0 [2]. - i2605: The latest price is 653.0, with a daily change of +9.5 and a weekly change of +5.0. The monthly spread is 21.0 [2]. - i2509: The latest price is 707.0, with a daily change of +8.5 and a weekly change of +2.5. The monthly spread is -54.0 [2]. - FE01: The latest price is 91.39, with a daily change of -0.08 and a weekly change of +0.44. The monthly spread is -67.6 [2]. - FE05: The latest price is 89.75, with a daily change of -0.11 and a weekly change of +0.53. The monthly spread is 1.64 [2]. - FE09: The latest price is 93.30, with a daily change of -0.20 and a weekly change of +0.35 [2].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:53
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250612
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:40
Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with weak expectations remaining unchanged. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Section Summaries 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, briefly boosting market confidence. The real estate is in the bottom - building process, and the demand for steel is still marginally weakening [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week's data showed a decline in production, factory inventory, and social inventory, and a decrease in apparent demand. The peak season of apparent demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has a strong rebound and has stood above the 10 - day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that it will enter a low - level oscillation and may have a second bottom - probing [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Buy at low prices after the second bottom - probing [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 2991 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3108 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day and 0.36% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's thread steel production is 218.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the hot - rolled coil production is 328.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 935.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%; the thread steel social inventory is 385.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 264.29 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, reducing uncertainties and briefly boosting market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a bottom and a ceiling. Attention should be paid to the future breakthrough direction [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and avoid chasing up or selling down [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 707 yuan/dry ton, up 1.22% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week [4] - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1872.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.06%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 641.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.35% [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 13826.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the port trade ore inventory is 9385.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [4] 3. Industry News - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills was 88.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was 241.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [6] - According to Buguwang, the national building materials social inventory is 552.24 tons, an increase of 1.77 tons from last week, up 0.32%; the factory inventory is 313.18 tons, a decrease of 12.97 tons from last week, down 3.98%; the production is 413.77 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons from last week, down 1.93% [6]
黑色产业链日报-20250611
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 12:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing China-US talks have improved market sentiment, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market. However, the traditional off-season for steel has arrived, with weakening demand and abundant raw material supply, suggesting limited fundamental support for the rebound [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, but future concerns are emerging. Supply is increasing while demand is expected to decline, which may lead to slower inventory depletion and potential accumulation [19]. - The relaxation of China-US relations has boosted market sentiment, causing coking coal to rebound due to previous overselling. Coke has also followed, but its rebound is weaker due to downstream price cuts. The demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. - Short - term market sentiment for ferroalloys has improved, but the long - term trend remains weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost decline, and the off - season for steel demand. However, the high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level [51]. - The production of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the market remains in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. - The glass market has a nearly 10% decline in cumulative apparent demand. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes [4][8]. - **Market Situation**: The off - season has led to a decline in some steel demand, such as a significant decrease in the outbound volume of building materials in Hangzhou and inventory accumulation in multiple regions for hot - rolled coils. Although steel mills maintain production through product switching, the supply of raw materials is abundant, and the rebound of the futures market lacks strong fundamental support [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased compared to the previous day, while the basis decreased. The daily and weekly changes in different contracts varied [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline. The production of five major steel products has not decreased significantly, but the demand has a seasonal decline, increasing the inventory depletion pressure [19][28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of changes. The coking coal prices rebounded more strongly, and the coking profit on the futures market shrank [35]. - **Market Situation**: The relaxation of China - US relations has driven the rebound of coking coal and coke. The current basis is in a reasonable range, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot and futures contracts, as well as their basis and spreads, showed different changes. The cost of ferrosilicon and the prices of raw materials for ferromanganese also changed to some extent [52][53]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, but the long - term trend is still weak. The high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level, with the cost expected to decline [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable [67][68]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash is expected to recover, and the market is in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis and spreads also changed. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions varied [94][97]. - **Market Situation**: The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined nearly 10%. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250611
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:27
| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月11日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | 230 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3220 | 3220 | 0 | 250 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2973 | 2980 | -7 | 137 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2974 | 2981 | -7 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2970 | 2979 | -d | 140 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 105 | アロ/『屯 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3120 | 3120 | 0 | 35 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...