证券研究报告 顾家家居 (603816 CH) 减值拖累 24 年盈利，25Q1 开局亮眼 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 家居用品 | 盈利预测与估值 考虑到内贸有待复苏，我们略下调公司 25-26 年内贸业务收入预测，新增 27 年盈利预测，预计 25-27 年归母净利分别为 18.77/20.83/22.93 亿元 （25-26 年分别较前值下调 10.2%/8.4%），对应 EPS 分别为 2.28/2.53/2.79 元，参考可比公司 25 年 Wind 一致预期 PE 均值为 11 倍，考虑公司组织管 理能力优秀，零售运营/供应链管理/仓配服等能力优势突出，给予公司 25 年 14 倍 PE，目标价 31.92 元（前值 43.18 元，基于 25 年 17 倍 PE，对应 EPS 为 2.54 元），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：需求恢复不及预期，贸易摩擦风险，原材价格及汇率波动。 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to exhibit a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the PEEK materials concept sector experiencing a significant surge, with intraday gains exceeding 8% [1][4][8] - The overall performance of the A-share market remains stable, with major indices showing low volatility levels for the year [4] Sector Performance - The daily chemical sector saw a substantial increase, with intraday gains approaching 3%, featuring stocks like Marubi Biotechnology and Shanghai Jahwa among the top performers [5] - The home furnishing sector also rose significantly, with intraday gains exceeding 2%, highlighted by Gujia Home's stock hitting the daily limit [6] - Other sectors such as advertising packaging, electrical instruments, public transportation, and industrial machinery also reported notable gains [7] Futures Market - The futures market displayed a relatively calm performance overall, although the shipping futures continued to plummet, with the European shipping index main futures experiencing an intraday drop of over 9% [2][16] - Since April, the European shipping index main futures have been on a downward trend, accumulating a decline of over 40% due to international circumstances and supply-demand dynamics [3][17] Individual Stock Movements - Individual stock performance has shown divergence, with some stocks experiencing consecutive daily limit increases, such as Hongbo Co. and Yuzhong Sanxia A, both hitting the daily limit for three consecutive trading days [10][11] - Conversely, ST Saiwei has faced a continuous decline, hitting the daily limit down for three consecutive trading days, with warnings regarding its financial stability [12] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market performed relatively well, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index showing intraday gains of over 1% and 2% respectively [14] - The pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains, with companies like Alibaba Health and WuXi AppTec among the top performers [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift of export-focused companies towards the domestic market in response to international trade uncertainties, highlighting the role of "one product, one code" technology and interactive models in this transition [1][3]. Group 1: "One Product, One Code" Technology - "One product, one code" serves as a new identification technology that connects export-to-domestic companies with local consumers, enhancing transparency and trust in products [3][4]. - This technology allows consumers to access comprehensive information about products, from raw material sourcing to quality control, thereby increasing consumer confidence [3][4]. - An example is provided where a high-end home goods exporter successfully established a premium brand image in the domestic market by showcasing its use of eco-friendly materials and strict quality control through this technology [3][4]. Group 2: Interactive Model - The interactive model leverages "one product, one code" to create deep engagement between companies and consumers, enabling personalized marketing and insights based on consumer behavior [4][6]. - Companies can collect data on consumer preferences and behaviors, allowing them to tailor marketing activities and product offerings, such as limited edition products based on identified consumer demand [4][6]. - An example includes a beauty company that launched targeted marketing campaigns based on insights gained from consumer scanning data, enhancing consumer participation and loyalty [4][6]. Group 3: Brand Building - The interactive model empowers companies to build influential domestic brands by facilitating effective and creative brand communication strategies [6][7]. - Companies can engage consumers through online activities, fostering word-of-mouth marketing and adjusting brand strategies based on consumer feedback [6][7]. - An example is given of a sports equipment company that increased brand awareness and reputation through a consumer engagement campaign that encouraged sharing of personal fitness experiences [6][7]. Group 4: Market Expansion - The combination of "one product, one code" and the interactive model aids companies in rapidly entering the domestic market by analyzing regional consumer data to inform marketing strategies [7]. - Companies can optimize supply chain collaboration through data sharing with distributors and retailers, enhancing product distribution speed and market coverage [7]. - The article emphasizes that transitioning from export to domestic sales is essential for companies to address external challenges and achieve sustainable growth, advocating for the adoption of new technologies and consumer-centric approaches [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness through product innovation, operational efficiency, and brand upgrading, demonstrating resilience and potential for high-quality development despite adverse external conditions [1][2] - The company has achieved stable performance in its mattress segment, with revenue of 2.679 billion and a gross margin of 61.4% in 2024, indicating a solid product lineup [2] - The company is expanding its overseas presence and optimizing its channel strategy, including the acquisition of a Singaporean home brand to enhance its market competitiveness in Southeast Asia [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.121 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, and a net profit of 118 million, down 16.4% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.603 billion, a slight increase of 0.4%, with a net profit of 767 million, down 4.4% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net margin was 13.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [1] Product and Brand Strategy - The company is enhancing its product matrix through the iteration of traditional and smart products, targeting young consumers and revitalizing existing customer demand [2] - The introduction of AI mattresses at the CES exhibition in the US has garnered international recognition, showcasing the company's commitment to smart sleep solutions [3] Channel and Operational Strategy - The company reported a revenue of 4.153 billion from distribution channels, a slight decrease of 0.3%, while e-commerce revenue increased by 6.0% to 1.093 billion [4] - The company is optimizing its traditional store network and enhancing its online marketing strategies to improve sales conversion rates [4] Profit Forecast Adjustment - The profit forecast has been adjusted to reflect ongoing operational pressures, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 800 million, 870 million, and 930 million respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][27] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure due to weak external demand, with a revenue decline of 7.8% in 2024 and a net profit drop of 24.1% [1][3] - The company aims to improve revenue and profit through a "trade-in" program [1] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains its leading position in the smart home sector and continues to expand its product offerings [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.56 billion, down 7.8%, and a net profit of 248 million, down 24.1% [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 260 million, down 11.4%, and a net profit of 30 million, down 39.7% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 48.0%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, with a significant drop in Q4 to 37.6% [3][4] Product and Sales Channel Analysis - The smart home product segment generated 1.33 billion in revenue, down 7.4%, but saw a volume increase of 19.4% to 1.533 million units sold [2] - Online sales remained relatively stable at 990 million, down 2.0%, while offline sales dropped significantly by 20.8% to 530 million [2] - The company is focusing on a multi-channel strategy, strengthening its online presence while addressing challenges in offline sales [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was 12.9%, a decrease of 6.1 percentage points, primarily due to intensified price competition and increased expenses [3] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased, indicating higher operational costs impacting profitability [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 300 million, 360 million, and 410 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21.8%, 18.3%, and 13.7% [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 for 2025, indicating a valuation adjustment in light of market conditions [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月28日 公牛集团（603195.SH） 优于大市 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评： 全年收入利润双增，一季度延续稳健经营 2024 年收入利润双增，2025Q1 延续稳健增长。公司发布 2024 年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现收入 168.3 亿/+7.2%，归母净利润 42.7 亿/+10.4%， 扣非归母净利润 37.4 亿/+1.0%；其中 2024Q4 收入 42.3 亿/+3.4%，归母净 利润 10.1 亿/-4.6%，扣非归母净利润 9.0 亿/-16.5%。2025Q1 收入 39.2 亿 /+3.1%，归母净利润 9.7 亿/+4.9%，扣非归母净利润 8.6 亿/+4.6%。2024 年 在消费疲软与地产压力下行业增长乏力，公司收入利润实现双增，基石主业 夯实，新业务快速成长，海外有序拓展；2025Q1 延续稳健增长态势。 电连接基本盘业务稳健增长，智能电工照明穿越周期，新能源实现跨越式增 长。1）2024 年电连接业务收入 76.8 亿/+4.0%，销量同比-0.98%，电连接作 为公司核心业务，持续推动产品焕新与细分场景创新，上市 ...

南方财经全媒体记者程浩 东莞报道 本期看点：东莞一季度制造业贷款3762亿元，规模居全市行业贷款首位；东锦龙股份实控人股权被二次 拍卖；惠伦晶体及实控人因涉嫌信披违法违规被证监会立案；慕思股份增收不增利，年报季报业绩双下 滑；东莞控股一季度净利润同比减少45.58%；捷荣技术一季度归母净亏损8680万元；众生药业2024年 净亏损2.99亿元，同比由盈转亏。 1、金融要闻东莞一季度制造业贷款3762亿元，规模居全市行业贷款首位 近日，记者从人民银行东莞市分行获悉，截至3月末，东莞市本外币各项贷款余额1.98万亿元，比年初 增加523亿元。其中，小微企业贷款余额4223亿元，同比增长17.4%，普惠口径小微贷款余额4228亿 元，规模稳居广东省地级市首位；制造业贷款余额3762亿元，规模稳居全市行业贷款首位。 信贷资源持续流向重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节。数据显示，截至3月末，东莞全市科技型中小企业 贷款余额136亿元，同比增长34.4%，专精特新"小巨人"企业贷款余额199亿元，同比增长32.1%；小微 企业贷款余额4223亿元，同比增长17.4%，普惠口径小微贷款余额4228亿元，规模稳居广东省地级市首 位 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Puli Pharmaceutical (普利制药) entered the delisting preparation period, with its stock price plummeting by over 70% at one point, reaching a maximum drop of 77.51% during trading [4][5][7] - The company previously announced that its 2021 and 2022 annual reports contained false records, with a total false profit amounting to 669 million yuan, accounting for 73.83% of the total disclosed profits for those two years [7] - The delisting preparation period for the company's stock and convertible bonds started on April 28, 2025, lasting for fifteen trading days, with the expected last trading date on May 21, 2025 [7][8] Group 2 - During the delisting preparation period, the company's stock will trade on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's risk warning board, with no price limits on the first day, followed by a daily limit of 20% thereafter [8] - The company has warned investors that its stock is classified as a special security under the Shenzhen Stock Connect, meaning investors can only sell and not buy, which may affect future trading [8] Group 3 - In the A-share market, other sectors such as steel, internet, banking, and electricity showed gains, while real estate, tourism, and home goods sectors experienced declines [2] - Goldwind Technology (金风科技) reported a significant increase in its first-quarter revenue for 2025, achieving 9.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 35.72%, and a net profit of 568 million yuan, up 70.84% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a 2024 revenue of 168.31 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 42.72 billion yuan, up 10.39% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.1 billion yuan, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 73% [7] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its core business segments, including electric connections, smart electrical lighting, and new energy products, which have shown respective revenue growth rates of 4.01%, 5.42%, and 104.75% in 2024 [7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 183.30 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 45.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.4% [9] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 43.25%, with a slight increase from the previous year. The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 24.8% for 2025 [8][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 5.10 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.1 times [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.3 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 24 yuan per 10 shares, increasing the cash dividend payout ratio to 73% [1] - The company's performance in the electric connection and smart electrical lighting segments remains stable, while the new energy business shows significant growth [2][3][4] - The gross margin is under short-term pressure due to high copper prices, but the net profit margin improved in Q1 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 3.7 billion yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 1 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 3% and 5% respectively [1] Business Segments - Electric Connection: Revenue reached 7.68 billion yuan in 2024, a 4% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued stable performance in Q1 2025 [2] - Smart Electrical Lighting: Revenue was 8.33 billion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year, although growth faced pressure in the second half of the year [3] - New Energy: Revenue surged to 780 million yuan in 2024, a remarkable 105% increase year-on-year, with continued rapid growth expected in Q1 2025 [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 43.25%, with segment margins of 40.97% for electric connection, 46.18% for smart electrical lighting, and 34.81% for new energy [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 25.38%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.72 percentage points [5] Cash Flow and Valuation - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 3.73 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 23% year-on-year [11] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 18.1 billion, 19.9 billion, and 21.9 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 7.57%, 10.04%, and 9.74% [12]