Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to continue strong performance until 2026, driven by a weaker dollar and explosive growth in AI investments [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The expectation of rising emerging market assets is largely based on the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy and a weaker dollar [2]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will exert downward pressure on the dollar, creating a favorable environment for emerging markets [3]. - The depreciation of the dollar has already shown positive effects on emerging market currencies this year, with a Bloomberg index indicating that returns from eight emerging market arbitrage trades funded by shorting the dollar have surged over 12%, marking the strongest performance since the global financial crisis [4]. Group 2: AI Investment Surge - In addition to favorable macroeconomic conditions, significant capital expenditures in the AI sector are seen as a strong support for emerging markets. JPMorgan predicts that U.S. capital expenditures related to AI will reach $628 billion by 2028, impacting emerging markets through increased tech product exports and rising metal prices [6]. - JPMorgan maintains a bullish stance on emerging market currencies and local currency bonds, expecting inflows of $40 to $50 billion into emerging market bond funds next year [6]. - Improved market sentiment and structural underweighting of emerging market assets by investors are expected to drive capital inflows [7]. Group 3: Institutional Optimism - Major institutions like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs predict further dollar weakness, with Bank of America’s baseline scenario anticipating a weaker dollar, declining interest rates, low oil prices, and moderate stock market gains [5]. - However, Bank of America also cautions that volatility may be higher than in the past six months, noting that historical trends indicate risk premiums typically do not remain at low levels for extended periods [5].

Core Insights - A turbulent November has reset market positions and sentiment, providing a clearer path for U.S. stocks entering December [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Prior to November, there was an overly optimistic sentiment in the market, with even long-term bears turning bullish, which led to significant market adjustments [2] - The adjustment was reflected in the internal market structure, with Goldman Sachs' unprofitable tech stock index dropping approximately 23% from peak to trough, and the most shorted stock basket declining about 29% [2] - The excessive bullish sentiment towards major tech stocks has cooled, with the options market showing a return to neutral positioning [6] Group 2: Market Breadth and Volatility - Market breadth has significantly improved, with the S&P 500's advancing/declining stock ratio moving from -150 to +150, indicating broader participation in market gains [8] - The Volatility Panic Index has decreased from its monthly high to 5, slightly above its three-year average of 4.6, signaling a cooling of panic sentiment [11] Group 3: Systematic Fund Flows and Investment Themes - Systematic funds have completed their de-risking process, with an estimated $16 billion sold in the S&P 500 over the past month, transitioning to a mild buying scenario of approximately $4.7 billion for the next month [13] - The investment theme around artificial intelligence (AI) is expanding, with companies in traditional sectors beginning to implement AI tools that enhance cost reduction and profit improvement [15] - Goldman Sachs has introduced a new stock basket index to capture the theme of "using AI rather than selling AI," reflecting a shift from narrative to measurable productivity [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the increasing likelihood of a rate cut in December, driven by changing economic indicators and comments from key Federal Reserve officials [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets declined, European markets remained flat, while U.S. markets showed resilience, fueled by renewed hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]. - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 75.5%, according to speculators [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent comments from John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, suggest a potential rate cut due to a cooling labor market and reduced inflation risks [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has complicated the collection of employment data, but analysts believe the labor market is weakening, as indicated by rising unemployment rates and declining job creation [5]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs reports that the delayed employment data may confirm a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [5]. - Analysts from Pantheon Macroeconomics assert that Williams' comments strongly indicate a forthcoming rate cut, given his historical alignment with majority opinions within the FOMC [5].

Group 1: HIBOR Trends - The overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) increased by 144 basis points to 3.37%, marking the largest single-day rise since December 2023 [1][3] - The one-month HIBOR, which is related to mortgage rates, has risen for six consecutive days, surpassing the 3% level to reach 3.24% [1][3] - Short-term rates saw significant increases, with the overnight rate rising to 3.36905% and the one-week rate increasing to 2.9125% [3] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - UBS forecasts a 15% upside potential for global equities by the end of 2026, with a particular focus on Chinese technology stocks, expecting a 37% growth in corporate earnings [1][6] - The investment outlook for the Chinese stock market remains positive, with expectations of double-digit growth for the Hang Seng Index [1][6] Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - AI is expected to drive global stock markets, with capital expenditure on AI projected to reach $4.7 trillion by 2030, and current contracts totaling $2.4 trillion [5][6] - The financial health of leading AI companies is stronger compared to past tech bubbles, as they are investing in AI with free cash flow and have healthy balance sheets [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - UBS suggests diversifying investments into stable assets such as private equity funds, bonds, and hedge funds, while also recommending a minimum of 5% allocation to gold in investment portfolios [7] - The firm anticipates that gold prices could reach up to $4,900 per ounce during periods of significant economic volatility [7]

Group 1 - Jefferies Financial Group has entered the Saudi Arabian private credit market by leading a $125 million financing deal for fintech startup Erad [1] - The financing will provide an asset-backed scalable financing tool to help Erad expand its lending to local SMEs in Saudi Arabia [1] - This move positions Jefferies among major Wall Street investment banks exploring private credit opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the broader Gulf region [1] Group 2 - There is a significant demand for new funding sources in the SME sector, which often struggles to secure support from local banks [2] - SMEs are considered the backbone of the Gulf region's economic diversification, facing a financing gap of $250 billion that limits their growth potential [2] - The financing tool will enable Erad to meet the growing financing needs of SMEs in the Gulf region and expand its service offerings beyond traditional consumer sectors to include manufacturing, logistics, distribution, and real estate services [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has closed its bullish stance on the British pound, indicating that the currency may have reached its last favorable catalyst recently [1] - Following the UK budget announcement, the pound briefly rebounded against the dollar, but this upward trend is likely to fade [1][4] - The attractiveness of the pound against the dollar has diminished, with its correlation to the stock market dropping to zero and a lack of positive local drivers in the short term [1] Group 2 - The pound rose above 1.32 against the dollar after the budget announcement, signaling a more restrained government borrowing approach [4] - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Bank of England implements sufficient rate cuts, it could alleviate negative factors affecting the pound, potentially creating more fiscal space [4] - Jefferies also anticipates that the pound's upward momentum is unlikely to persist, citing ongoing fiscal vulnerabilities as a reason for further potential weakness [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sudden surge after initially declining, driven by new statements from key Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1][3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, citing possible downward revisions to September employment data, which increased market expectations for lower interest rates [3] - Goldman Sachs projected that the Federal Reserve would implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, reinforcing the growing consensus in the financial community regarding this expectation [3][5] Group 2: Investment Risks in Gold - The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicated an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant increase from the previous day's 69.4%, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards gold and other safe-haven assets [5] - Several cases of dubious gold investment schemes were highlighted, including a dealer promoting "gold leasing" and another offering high returns on gold investments through an app with an 80x leverage, which poses significant risks to investors [7][9] - Regulatory warnings were issued to the public about the dangers of high-leverage gold investments and the importance of choosing legitimate channels to avoid illegal financial activities [9][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market Trends - Aluminum prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors, with recent declines attributed to a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve comments and mixed employment data [11][15] - Analysts noted that the oversupply of alumina and high inventory levels are likely to keep aluminum prices under pressure, with a potential for production cuts in December, although immediate impacts on supply-demand dynamics may be limited [13][15] - The aluminum market remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for a potential weakening in demand and increased supply in the coming months, particularly with new capacities coming online [17][18]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 摩根士丹利表示，从长远来看，英国央行充分的降息可能有助于缓解对英镑的不利因素，因为政策宽松可能会创造更多的财政空间。该行补充道，此外，借 贷成本降低可以提振家庭消费和企业活动。 "也许当我们接近英国央行降息周期的尾声时，增长将取代套利交易，成为英镑的关键货币催化剂，"策略师们写道。"如果降息有助于刺激增长前景，那么 原本可能对英镑不利的市场情绪将有很大的转变空间。" 同样，杰富瑞预计英镑的涨势将是短暂的，并认为还有进一步走弱的空间。该行经济学家Modupe Adegbembo在一份报告中写道： "展望未来，我们认为持续的财政脆弱性使得收益率曲线陡峭化交易具有吸引力，因为市场继续计入财政滑坡和结构性失衡的风险。" 音频由扣子空间生成 摩根士丹利已结束其看涨英镑的建议，并指出该货币可能已经见证了短期内最后一个利好催化剂。 David Adams等策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，尽管周三英国预算案公布后英镑有快速反弹的空间，但涨势可能会消退。他们补充称，英镑兑美元的吸引 力已受到打击，因为其与股市的关联度已降至零，且眼下缺乏积极的本土驱动因素。 策略师们写道，"随着预算案已成过去 ...

来源：瑞恩资本RyanbenCapital 来源 | The Banker 据The Banker报道，招聘机构Robert Walters华德士表示，受香港IPO活动复苏的提振，香港的投行预计 将在明年提高员工薪酬。 该机构预测， 精品投行的加薪幅度将更为普遍，2026年精品投行的助理(associate)、副总裁(vice president)、董事 (director)和董事总经理(managing director)的薪酬范围都将有所提高。 华德士的分析，基于其年度薪资调查，该调查收集全年数据，并对2026年进行前瞻性预测。上述数字， 未包含奖金和股权激励。 根据华德士基于与客户沟通的估算(薪资不包括奖金、股权激励): 精品投行前台职位的董事总经理(managing director)，2025年薪资范围在200万至280万港元之间，2026年 可能增至210万至310万港元； 从事卖方业务的董事(director)，2025年薪资范围在140万至220万港元，2026年可能跃升至150万至250万 港元； 副总裁(vice president)的薪酬，则可能从86万至130万港元增至96万至150万 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released a report titled "2025-2035 Global Stock Market Decadal Outlook," which emphasizes a shift from the previous decade's "U.S. stock dominance" and warns of potential corrections in asset pricing [1] - The report suggests that the S&P 500's annualized nominal total return is expected to decline to 6.5% over the next decade, a significant drop from the 15% annualized return seen in the past ten years [1][3] Return Attribution Analysis - Earnings growth is projected to contribute positively, with an expected annual compound growth rate of approximately 6%, indicating robust fundamentals for U.S. stocks [3] - Dividend returns are anticipated to contribute around 1.4% to total returns [4] - Valuation adjustments are expected to be the largest drag on returns, with the current forward P/E ratio at 23x, which is historically high. A gradual contraction in valuation multiples is predicted to negatively impact total returns by about 1% annually [4] Global Market Opportunities - As U.S. stock returns are expected to decline, relative value in global assets is becoming more apparent. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 7.7% annualized return for global equities (MSCI ACWI), surpassing U.S. stocks [6] - Non-U.S. markets, both developed and emerging, are expected to outperform U.S. stocks due to structural advantages and more attractive valuations [8] Regional Performance Expectations - Emerging markets are projected to have a 10.9% annualized return, driven by strong EPS growth in China and India [10] - Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to yield a 10.3% return, supported by approximately 9% EPS growth and a 2.7% dividend yield [10] - Japan is forecasted to achieve an 8.2% return, bolstered by EPS growth and policy-led improvements in shareholder payouts [12] - Europe is expected to deliver a 7.1% return, with half of this driven by earnings and the other half by shareholder returns [10] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a shift from a concentrated investment strategy focused on U.S. stocks, particularly tech giants, to a more balanced global allocation to mitigate risks associated with declining Sharpe ratios [15] - It advocates for increasing exposure to emerging markets and non-U.S. developed markets to capture potential valuation recovery and benefits from currency fluctuations [16]