黄昏时迪拜天际线鸟瞰图。来源：视觉中国 稳定、优惠的税收待遇和理想的生活方式，推动着富豪们寻求新的避风港。财富迁移的趋势，对各经济 体的竞争力和吸引力也有着重大影响。 《环球时报》援引的《全球私人财富迁徙报告》指出，相比2014，中国的百万富翁（拥有100万美元流 动性资产）数量增长了74%，增幅只低于黑山（124%）、阿联酋（98%）、马耳他（87%）和美国 （78%）。 同时也有家长反映，中国的百万富翁们决定留在国内的另一个原因，是其子女面临的海外环境不确定性 越来越大。 另外，该报告还显示，身处粤港澳大湾区的中国香港地区吸引力正逐步恢复，当地预计今年净流入800 名百万富翁。与此同时，泰国正在成为东南亚的后起之秀，预计百万富翁净流入将有450名。 相比之下，新加坡今年的百万富翁净流入量将减少至1600人。但分析公司AlphaGo的首席执行官Parag Khanna指出，新加坡仍保留着政治稳定、高水平监管和税收友好等优势。 新世界财富研究的主管安德鲁·阿莫伊尔斯表示，观察过去十年中全球增长最快的财富市场，就会发现 这些国家大多是百万富翁移民的热门目的地（如黑山、阿联酋、马耳他、美国和哥斯达黎加），或中 国 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase on July 1, with the main Shanghai gold price at 776.10 CNY per gram, up 1.47%, and the main Shanghai silver price at 8810.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.11% [1] - International precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3347.70 USD per ounce, up 0.99%, and COMEX silver at 36.48 USD per ounce, up 0.40% [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for the main Shanghai gold and silver futures were 766.18 CNY per gram and 8737.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 776.64 CNY per gram and 8810.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX gold opened at 3315.70 USD per ounce, with a peak of 3351.80 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver opened at 36.33 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 36.77 USD per ounce [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September instead of December, citing that the impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be less than expected [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the next two meetings remains low, despite market expectations for a rate cut in July rising from 8% to 20% and in September from 60% to 90% [3] Group 4 - COMEX gold prices increased by 0.88% to 3315.00 USD per ounce, with the CME "FedWatch" indicating a 79.8% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July and a 20.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September is at 5.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75.9% and a 50 basis point cut is 18.8% [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $3302.59 per ounce, reaching a high of $3332.09, and a low of $3301.07, with a current price of $3332.09, reflecting a 0.77% increase [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting cuts in September instead of December, citing that the impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be less than anticipated [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, adjusting the terminal rate forecast from 3.5%-3.25% to 3-3.25% [3] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is slightly above 50%, with several potential paths identified, including lower-than-expected tariff effects and labor market weakness [3] - The current resistance level for gold prices is identified at $3360-$3370, while support is noted at $3227-$3237 [3]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、达利欧称，在接下来的一年里，美国必须出售大约 12 万亿美元国债。需要 1 万 | | | | | 亿美元支付利息，有 9 万亿美元的债务要偿还，必须再出售 2 万亿美元债务，因为 | | | | | 有赤字 2 万亿美元。债务增长累似动脉斑块淤积，美国财政心脏病会随时发作。 | | | | | 2、尽管共和党参议员勉强凑齐票数开启辩论，但法案的最终通过仍悬而未决，其 | | | | | 潜在的巨额债务规模引发党内外担忧，马斯克称之为"荒唐且具有破坏性"，一些 | | | | | 不寻求连任的参议员对法案投下反对票。 | | | | | 3、高盛认为，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 24% since mid-April, prompting discussions about the sustainability of this bull market [1] Group 1: Corporate Earnings Improvement - The primary driver for the continued rise in U.S. stocks is the improvement in corporate earnings, with recent upward revisions in earnings forecasts for S&P 500 constituents [3] - The breadth of earnings improvement is expanding beyond just technology giants, as indicated by the ERB indicator, which has rebounded from -25% in mid-April to -5% currently [3] - Historical data suggests that such turning points often signal a strong return outlook for the market, with large-cap quality stocks benefiting first, followed by small-cap and lower-quality stocks [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Expectations - A shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy is the second catalyst supporting the rise in U.S. stocks, with predictions of up to seven interest rate cuts by 2026 [4] - The market tends to react proactively to anticipated changes in monetary policy rather than waiting for explicit signals [4] - While there are risks associated with rising unemployment potentially disrupting market optimism, this scenario is not included in Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast [4] Group 3: Market Resilience to External Shocks - The strong resilience of the U.S. stock market in absorbing external shocks is the third pillar supporting its future performance, mirroring historical trends following geopolitical conflicts [5] - The easing tensions between Iran and Israel and the subsequent decline in international oil prices have reduced energy cost threats to the economic cycle [5] - The potential removal of "retaliatory tariffs" from tax reform legislation is expected to boost market confidence, alongside a decrease in the yield premium on U.S. Treasuries, indicating alleviated concerns about U.S. fiscal health [5] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months, provided that the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.5% [5]

尽管高盛认可当前美国劳动力市场整体仍处于 "健康" 状态，但也发出预警。他们指出，当下求职者面临的竞争压力显著增大，而且残余季节性因素的影 响，以及移民政策的变动，都给近期的就业数据带来了下行风险。 KVB plus发现在全球金融市场密切关注美联储货币政策走向之际，国际投行高盛突然抛出重磅预测，大幅调整对美联储降息时间的判断，引发市场广泛关 注。高盛一改此前预期，明确表示美联储将提前三个月，于今年 9 月启动降息周期，而非原先预计的 12 月。这一调整背后，高盛经济研究团队给出了关键 依据，他们认为关税对通胀产生的实际影响 "比预期稍弱"。 以首席经济学家简・哈祖斯 (Jan Hatzius) 为首的高盛研究团队，在发布的报告中详细阐述了观点。他们指出，尽管经济形势仍存在诸多不确定性，但综合多 方面因素判断，9 月降息的概率已略高于 50%。具体而言，关税政策未达预期效果、通缩对冲力度不断加大、劳动力市场出现实质性疲软，或是因月度经济 数据波动引发市场恐慌等情况，都有可能促使美联储在 9 月做出降息决策。报告还着重强调，高盛推测美联储高层也持有相同观点，即关税对物价的影响仅 为一次性，不会形成持续性的通胀压力 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting a cut in September instead of December, citing weaker-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - The Goldman Sachs economic research team, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, believes the probability of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, influenced by factors such as weaker tariff effects and a softening labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, lowering the terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley disagrees with Goldman Sachs, stating that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near term remains low, despite market expectations increasing for a September cut [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that most Federal Reserve officials support a cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse rate cuts, anticipating a relatively stable upcoming employment report [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed skepticism about the possibility of a 1970s-style stagflation occurring in the current economic environment, given the current unemployment and inflation rates [2] Group 3 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 and three cuts in the following year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [3] - Bostic noted that the full impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy has yet to be felt, suggesting that price impacts are more a matter of timing than certainty [2]

金属石化 迈向黄金新时代 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策 略会 20250630 摘要 黄金的表现与宏观经济环境密切相关。自 2022 年提出新宏观范式以来，全球 进入了高通胀、高利率、高波动的新阶段，这一变化推动了实物资产的价值上 升。2023 年 8 月，我们预测未来几年利率中枢和黄金价格中枢将持续上升， 美元未来几年面临持续贬值压力，原因包括特朗普政府的制造业回归政 策、贸易赤字缩减以及解决债务压力的需求。新兴信用品种如金银铜成 为避险选择，将进一步推动这些实物资产价值上升。各主要国家都面临 类似的债务压力，信用货币普遍存在贬值风险。 中美再平衡的实现路径包括关税、汇率和财政。关税空间收缩，财政力 度加大导致失衡加剧，汇率价格调整成为硬约束。美元贬值可通过市场 化行为实现，无需协议干预。4 月 2 号以来，美元跌幅主要发生在亚洲 时段，验证了资金在美国和亚洲之间存在再平衡。 黄金市场长期走势受美国通胀中枢和财政赤字中枢影响。看空美国通胀 和财政力度可能结束黄金牛市，反之则牛市远未结束。过去 50 年黄金 实际价格基本上由美国财政赤字解释，黄金可以抗国家信用。中国等新 兴市场国家未来还有很大的增持黄金 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative of inflation concerns has weakened, leading to a strong performance in the U.S. bond market in the first half of 2025, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 35 basis points, the largest decline in five years [1][3] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, has contributed to a decrease in oil prices from over $75 per barrel to below $65, alleviating inflation fears [3] - Despite increased tariffs leading to higher import costs for businesses, consumer inflation has remained low, with a mere 0.1% month-over-month increase in May, below the expected 0.2% [3][4] Group 2 - Economists believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with significant price increases potentially reflected in upcoming data [4] - Market participants have reduced their inflation concerns and adjusted their yield expectations downward, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December 2025 [5] - The expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair succeeding Powell has intensified, with market analysts predicting a higher likelihood of declining interest rates if economic conditions remain weak [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has secretly positioned itself for bearish hedging, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards gold [1] - The breaking of the 50-day moving average for gold suggests that the price level of 3200 may become the last stronghold for bulls [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a resurgence of enthusiasm in the US stock market, prompting a need for contrarian investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's ongoing conflict with former President Trump highlights the beginning of a devaluation trend for the US dollar [1] - The article suggests that the market is currently pricing in unusual logic, which may present unique investment opportunities [1]