全文共1689字，阅读大约需要4分钟 网友："下一个会不会是投资铁条、投资油条？" 1月19日，。最近，贵金属市场热潮涌动，特别是黄金和白银价格一路走高，成为大众追捧的投资焦 点。而在这股热潮之下，又一种金属悄悄"出圈"——投资铜条。 相关话题下，有网友说："一开始以为是段子，结果发现是真的"。还有网友开玩笑说："再也不敢叫破 铜烂铁了"。 据悉，深圳水贝是国内最大的黄金珠宝集散地，就在这个月，金座、银座、特力等市场的不少商家试探 性地推出了纯铜999.9的投资铜条，规格有500克和1000克，不过以1000克居多，一根1000克的投资铜条 的报价从180元至280元。 不过大部分商家没有铜条现货，需要预订，预订时间3至7天不等。 一位水贝商家说，这两天问的人比较多，真正下单的人很少。大家普遍比较关心的是将来的回收问题。 "这还是遍地黄金的水贝吗？"目前只有少数商家推出了投资铜条，除了网友，就连市场里的商家都觉得 离谱。 "铜适合一吨一吨囤，不适合一斤一斤囤。铜条的溢价空间太大了，放几年都回不了本。"一位贵金属投 资客说。他算了一笔账，以200元一公斤计算，相当于铜价涨到20万一吨才能平账，还不包括成本利息 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs identifies emerging markets as the most favorable investment destination for the next year and five years, rather than the United States [1] Group 1: Emerging Markets Outlook - The expected basic return rate for emerging market stocks is the highest at 8%, with a probability of 55% [2] - There is a 20% probability that emerging market returns will exceed expectations, while there is a 25% probability of experiencing low single-digit negative returns [2] - The volatility of expected returns for emerging markets is the highest among all markets [2] Group 2: Other Market Predictions - The expected return for U.S. stocks, represented by the S&P 500 index, ranks second with a projected growth rate of 7% over the next 12 months and an average return of 6% over the next five years [6] - UK stocks and the MSCI All Country World Index are projected to have average returns of 5% over the next five years, ranking third and fourth respectively [7] Group 3: U.S. Stock Valuation - Despite U.S. stock valuations being at historical highs, Goldman Sachs denies the existence of a bubble, attributing high valuations to reduced volatility in the U.S. economy, which supports stronger corporate earnings stability [8] - The report indicates that valuation itself has limited impact on investment decisions regarding market entry or exit [8] Group 4: Recommended Investment Funds - Goldman Sachs recommends several funds expected to perform well, including iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Franklin FTSE UK ETF (FLGB), and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, indicating a favorable investment environment due to strong economic growth and declining inflation [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights two main themes in the Asian emerging markets: the gradual appreciation of the Renminbi and the end of the Asian interest rate easing cycle, driven by strong economic growth and export performance [5]. - The report suggests that the market is currently in a "Goldilocks" state, characterized by good economic growth and declining inflation, which is favorable for risk assets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks, technology bubbles, and the independence of the Federal Reserve as potential risk factors [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Data and Trends - U.S. December CPI data was slightly below expectations, while China's December PPI inflation rate was slightly above expectations, with exports growing by 6.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered several structural loan tool rates by 25 basis points and increased their quotas, indicating a credit expansion [1][2]. Currency Strategies - The report recommends a bearish options strategy on USD/SGD, targeting a move towards the 6.80 range in the next 3-6 months, as policy signals indicate Renminbi appreciation [5]. - The report notes that the Renminbi's appreciation has limited spillover effects on low-yield currencies, as it is driven by a significant trade surplus rather than domestic demand [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current low-volatility environment is an opportune time for establishing risk hedges, particularly in the foreign exchange market [4]. - The report anticipates strong industrial value-added data from China, while retail sales and fixed asset investment may show weakness [8].

投资者对人工智能（AI）前景的热情预计今年将继续推动大型科技股的上涨，但与此同时，华尔街也 预计美股牛市今年将"多点开花"。 过去两周，工业、材料、能源和必需消费品板块的表现均优于大盘，这些板块的涨幅均达到5.5%或更 多。即使是小盘股罗素2000指数自年初以来也上涨了8%，超过了同期上涨超过1%的标准普尔500指 数。 奥本海默首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus在接受采访时说道："这是一个不断扩大的牛市。" 据悉，Stoltzfus今年对标普500指数给出的目标价为8100点，这意味着该指数将较当前水平上涨大约 17%，是华尔街最乐观的预测。而其他大多数分析师则预计该基准指数将实现两位数百分比的增长，目 标价为7500点或7600点。 巴克莱银行美国股票策略主管Venu Krishna表示："在我们等待事态发展的同时，我认为科技，尤其是大 型科技公司和人工智能，是这个市场的核心。我们坚信，即使人工智能受到的审查力度明显加大，它今 年仍将保持强劲势头。" 这场考验将在于，面临人工智能颠覆的软件股能否站稳脚跟。自年初以来，微软、Salesforce 和 ServiceNow等公司的股价均有所下跌，投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive industry data [10]. - The platform also features an AI search function for efficient information retrieval and analysis [10].

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 雷克萨斯把海外首个新能源基地安在上海，等于直接把家搬来了；麦当劳更狠，以每年千店速度"横 扫"中国，连青海都安排上了，目标2028年冲万家，这扩张速度堪比网友吃瓜的手速。 但有人狂欢就有人"翻车"，宜家关店那事儿最近不是闹得挺火？连上海宝山那个曾经的"亚洲最大宜 家"都凉了，不少人疑惑：这波"到中国去"的热潮，难道是假象？ 文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇国际评论，主要分析2026年资本重仓中国热潮，解读企业兴衰原因，看聪明钱 如何用脚投票押注中国机遇。 家人们谁懂啊！2026年的资本圈就一个主旋律——重仓中国，主打一个"聪明钱绝不跟钱过不去"。 资本大迁徙全都纷纷押注中国？ 高盛、摩根士丹利这帮外资投行，喊"超配中国股票"比我们刷短视频还积极，还拍胸脯说未来两年股市 每年能涨15%-20%，这是生怕别人抢了他们的筹码啊！ 不光投行疯，实体资本也在疯狂"上分"，德国穆勒直奔上海开亚洲首店，一开口就喊着五年开200-500 家，这胃口比我炫火锅还大。 外资为何要去中国 真相扎心但真实：不是中国市场不行了，是宜家没 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unprecedented rapid development in the Chinese job market, driven by a shrinking labor force and a talent war among employers [1] - 60% of companies report difficulties in hiring qualified employees, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI and semiconductors [1] - The younger generation is redefining the nature of work, prioritizing benefits, flexibility, and personal growth over traditional career paths [1] Group 2 - The HR Asia Best Employer Awards return to China to recognize organizations that set new benchmarks for the future workplace [1] - Award-winning companies demonstrate innovation and empathy, focusing on employee development through internal training, transparent career paths, and flexible work arrangements [1] - The HR Asia project is reshaping how companies formulate talent strategies, providing insights and data to help businesses understand workplace trends and employee engagement gaps [2] Group 3 - The 2025 HR Asia Best Employer Award winners include a mix of large Chinese enterprises and multinational companies, showcasing a commitment to employee-centric practices [3] - The awards cover 15 Asian markets, making it the largest employee engagement survey and recognition project in the region [2] - The awards serve as a testament to leadership in a transformative era, with companies retaining core talent and inspiring others in the industry [2] Group 4 - The 2025 HR Asia Technology Empowerment Award winners and other specific award categories highlight companies excelling in various aspects of employee engagement and care [4] - Notable winners include A.MENARINI CHINA HOLDING CO., LTD., BOROUGE, and HANG LUNG MANAGEMENT (CHINA) LTD. among others [4] - The awards reflect a growing emphasis on sustainability and care within the workplace, aligning with modern employee expectations [4]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.61% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.01%, France's CAC 40 down by 0.56%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.32% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.35% to $59.99 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.30% to $64.59 per barrel [3][4] Credit Market Insights - The global credit market is experiencing its hottest period in 19 years, prompting warnings from major investment firms like Aberdeen and Pimco about potential corrections in both credit spreads and equity valuations [5] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching a record low in volatility, with a median weekly range of less than 10 basis points for five consecutive weeks, raising concerns among bond market investors about potential sell-offs [6] Commodity Market Developments - Copper prices have fallen below $13,000 per ton, with Goldman Sachs warning of a potential 15% decline in prices this year due to revised demand forecasts from Nvidia [7] - Mark Mobius, a prominent investor, has stated he will only consider buying gold if prices drop by 20%, citing potential dollar strength as a pressure point for gold prices [8] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - Storage chip stocks are experiencing a pre-market surge, with Micron Technology and SanDisk both rising over 5%, driven by strong AI demand and expectations of a "super cycle" in the storage industry lasting until at least 2027 [9][10] - TSMC plans to increase its investment in the US to meet AI chip demand, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly in the coming years [10] M&A Activity - JPMorgan is expanding its investment banking team in Europe, anticipating a record year for mergers and acquisitions in 2026 due to favorable market conditions [11] - Coterra Energy is in talks to merge with Devon Energy, which could lead to one of the largest oil and gas transactions in recent years [12] Streaming Industry Developments - Netflix has secured global streaming rights for Sony films in a deal valued at approximately $7 billion, expanding its content library significantly [13]

这意味着，2024年上半年全球资本市场将继续在"高利率、强美元"的货币环境中运行，依赖经济数据的起伏寻找方向。在此背景下，资产价格的 波动性可能再度攀升，重现2023年第四季度般的剧烈震荡。 对于投资者而言，最关键的风险在于重新定价。一方面，美国经济的韧性使得通胀（尤其是关税传导带来的通胀）成为比衰退更紧迫的威胁；另 一方面，非美经济体如欧元区和中国面临的增长压力，使得全球货币政策难以协调。 特别值得注意的是，大摩对日本央行的判断与市场主流预期截然相反—— 市场还在押注加息，而大摩认为日本央行全年都将按兵不动。这种预期 的巨大偏差，极可能在日元和日本国债市场上引发剧烈的重新定价风险。 摩根士丹利指出，全球经济正站在一个高度分化的十字路口，而市场对于流动性宽松的预期可能再次偏离现实。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利在1月15日发布的全球经济简报中，为那些押注全球央行将同步、快速转向宽松政策的投资者敲响了警钟。该机构强 调，此前市场普遍期待的美联储年初降息已基本落空——强劲的美国消费数据迫使大摩将首次降息预期大幅推迟至今年年中。 美国经济：强劲消费与关税通胀迫使美联储按兵不动 美国经济目前呈现出一种令人困惑但强韧的背离 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong capital market experienced significant growth in 2025, with expectations for continued activity in 2026, described as "涛声依旧" [1] - In 2025, the total equity financing in the Hong Kong stock market reached $96 billion, a 173% increase from $35.2 billion in 2024, indicating a substantial rise [1] - The IPO market in 2025 was robust, with total IPO financing soaring from $11.3 billion in 2024 to $37.5 billion, an increase of over 230% [1] - The refinancing scale, including placements and rights issues, surged from approximately $9 billion to around $45 billion, a growth of about five times, aligning with Goldman Sachs' earlier predictions [1] - Convertible bonds maintained a high financing level of about $20 billion, accounting for approximately 20% of total financing, above historical averages [1] Group 2 - The structural characteristics of the 2025 IPO market showed that nearly half of the financing came from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, while the other half was from companies listing for the first time in Hong Kong [2] - In 2026, the IPO momentum is expected to continue, with a shift towards more first-time listings, particularly in AI and hard technology sectors, which will test the pricing power and liquidity of the Hong Kong market [2] - The refinancing market is anticipated to remain at high levels in 2026, driven by an increasing number of Chinese enterprises listed in Hong Kong, especially in high capital expenditure sectors like renewable energy and AI [2] - The concentration of Chinese AI and related industry companies going public is highlighted as a key theme for 2026, with significant capital needs still present in the sector [2] Group 3 - The phenomenon of new stocks breaking below their issue price in Q4 2025 is explained as a normal price discovery mechanism in mature markets, with no fundamental shift in the Hong Kong market [3] - Consumer stocks are emphasized as a core attraction for the Hong Kong market in 2026 due to their simple and transparent business models, predictable earnings growth, and attractive valuations [3]