来源: 财融圈 2025年8月8日，据财新消息，近期华兴资本创始人包凡"出来了"。当时，华兴资本官方就包凡回归事宜回应称，包凡不再参与集团日常管理与营运，其个 人生活动态属于私人事务范畴，公司不再予以回应。 此次包凡在年会上的公开亮相，是其回归后的重要公开活动。 近日，华兴资本举行公司年会，创始人包凡出席活动并以"老大讲话"环节登台发言。 公开资料显示，包凡，男，中国香港居民，汉族，1970年10月18日出生，毕业于上海复旦大学，经济学硕士，华兴资本集团创始人。 根据年会流程安排，活动于当晚18:00开始，包凡的讲话被安排在19:18-19:28进行，时长10分钟。董事长许彦清通过远程连线方式在19:08-19:18发表讲 话。现任CEO王力行未安排单独讲话环节，其在年会中主要负责抽奖环节。 | | | | | 2026年华兴资本年会 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 活动流程 | | | 篇章 | 时间 | 时长 | 环节 | 内容 | 备注 | | | 18:00-19:00 | 60. | 签到入场 | 序厅签到及拍照打卡互动/鸡尾酒 ...

先说乍听起来最能吸引人的事，GDP会比多数经济学家预期更好，这个判断建立在两个前提上，其一是关税的"一次性"拖累会逐渐消失，其二是财政刺激会 继续带来支撑，换句话说，外在的摩擦在退场，内部的推力在继续，但这两个前提都不是铁板钉钉的事实，而是"假设"；一旦全球供应链、地缘政治或财政 支出路径出现偏差，增长数字就会被打折。难道市场就不会问一句，这增长是"真增长"还是"消费与库存堆起来的泡沫"吗？ 再看劳动力市场，这是高盛报告里最谨慎的部分，他们把不确定性直接点名为"劳动力市场是2026年前景中最不确定的因素"，讲得像是在做风险提示，是 的，这里有三层意思职位空缺在慢慢减少，企业在讨论裁员，企业又渴望用人工智能降低人工成本，最关键的是移民数量的骤降，让劳动供给的增长放缓， 从而使得就业增长乏力；这意味着，就算经济看似稳健，背后的人口与供需结构正在悄悄改变，想用传统的劳动力模型去解读恐怕会漏掉许多隐蔽的裂缝。 高盛还计算出一个看似轻描淡写却十分锋利的数字，为了让失业率在2026年维持在4.5%，美国每月只需新增不到7万个就业岗位，这听起来门槛很低，但问 题是新增岗位的质量在哪里，行业分布如何，地域差距如何——如果新增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and a comprehensive coverage of more than 1,800 stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Focus and Updates - Daily updates on research focus and timely push of selected articles are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - Senior analysts are available for live interpretations of market hotspots, ensuring that clients receive real-time insights [4]. Group 3: Research Reports and Data - The platform features over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It includes more than 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, along with a sophisticated data dashboard [10].

我问你个问题，你最近刷短视频或者看财经新闻的时候，有没有发现那种违和感。就是金价已经涨到让人怀疑人生了，但华尔街那帮平时最 精明、最爱算计的机构，不但没喊风险，反而像着了魔一样往里冲。 我查了美联储的内部投票情况，心里更有底了。这次利率决议，竟然有两位理事投了反对票，主张立刻降息25个基点。 这种内部的分裂已经连续五次会议出现了，说明美联储自己都快撑不住了。降息这把枪，扳机就扣在他们手里，一旦枪声响起，以前那种全 球热钱涌向美国的"美元潮汐"可能就再也回不来了。 这种感觉就像是，一伙最专业的船员，放着豪华舱位不坐，非要往救生艇上挤，而且是一个个一言不发，神情凝重。 我昨天查了一下数据，整个人在电脑前愣了三秒。就在刚刚过去的2026年1月28日，美联储宣布维持利率不变，把联邦基金利率区间定在 3.5%到3.75%。结果呢？美元指数确实拉升了，但现货黄金竟然在同一天原地起飞，单日大涨4.5%，直接站上了5400美元每盎司的高位。 这在以前的逻辑里是解释不通的，美元走强，黄金通常得趴着，可现在它们各走各的，甚至像是在进行一场生死赛跑。 这种反常背后，是因为华尔街的猎犬们已经闻到了衰退的味道。高盛就在这几天，把202 ...

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2026 年 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席 的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联储主席 之一"（ he will go down as one of the great Fed chairmen ），且"绝不会让人失望"（ he will never let you down ）。提名仍需参议院银行委员会听证及全体投票确认。 第二， 沃什的履历组合非常多样化，他同时具备华尔街并购、白宫经济政策工作以及美联储危机应对的实操 经验 。他曾在 1995 年 -2002 年担任摩根士丹利执行董事负责并购业务，熟悉华尔街运作机制；在 2002-2006 白宫经济政策特别助理、国家经济委员会执行秘书。在 2006 年至 2011 年担任美联储理事。 在 2008 年全球金融危机期间，他担任美联储与华尔街之间的首席联络人，并且是 G20 代表。 2011 年， 他因反对第二轮量化宽松（ QE2 ）而辞职，认为这种大规模买入债券的行为会 ...

Core Insights - The recent release of documents by the U.S. Department of Justice has revealed details about the relationship between Goldman Sachs partner and General Counsel Kathy Ruemmler and Jeffrey Epstein [1] Group 1: Relationship Details - Ruemmler referred to Epstein as "Uncle Jeffrey" in emails from 2016 to 2019, indicating a personal connection [2][4] - She received various gifts from Epstein, including shoes, handbags, and wine, with a specific mention of an Apple Watch band in 2018 [2][4] Group 2: Political and Public Relations Involvement - Ruemmler provided political and public relations support to Epstein, including drafting a response for Donald Trump regarding their relationship during the 2016 election [5] - The documents illustrate how Epstein leveraged connections with elite individuals like Ruemmler to maintain his social standing [5] Group 3: Goldman Sachs' Response - Goldman Sachs has expressed unwavering support for Ruemmler, stating that her professional interactions are normal and that her role in the company remains unchanged [6] - CEO David Solomon has praised Ruemmler as an exceptional legal advisor and confirmed that she disclosed relevant information to the company in 2023 [6]

继上月，香港证监会和香港联交所联名私下致函保荐人，关注IPO申请文件质量下滑等情况后，香港证监会 此次选择公开发函，督促保荐人进一步审视检讨在招股文件拟备工作中的严重缺失。 2026年1月30日，香港证监会发出通函，表示高度关注在2025年新上市申请激增期间出现的问题，包括部分上 市文件的拟备工作存在严重缺失，保荐人或有失当行为，以及其资源管理严重失误。 16宗IPO申请被中止审查 在审视近期的上市申请时，香港证监会、香港联交所发现，保荐人在拟备上市文件及回应监管意见的过程中存 在多项严重缺失，且在发售阶段未能妥善处理关键的监管流程。 香港证监会行政总裁梁凤仪指出，部分保荐人在追逐交易数量时，或已削弱其在上市过程中的把关作用。她敦 促所有保荐人及参与上市申请过程的外部专业人士，切勿过度承担业务，并应担当与其自身资源水平匹配的责 任，以确保工作质量。 国际投行都在香港抢人才 "这些问题充分显示，部分保荐人可能对上市申请人未有透彻的了解，亦有其他保荐人可能没有在提交上市申 请及回复监管机构查询前进行合理的尽职审查。"香港证监会指出。 在展业缺失及保荐人行为失当背后，香港证监会也一针见血地指出原因所在——保荐人能力 ...

当地时间1月30日，随着美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）正式被美国总统特朗普提名为下任美联储主席，这场牵动市场 许久的美联储主席人事任免大戏也终于阶段性告一段落。 尽管这一提名还需获得美国参议院的批准，但提名一经公布，就在全球金融市场掀起了波澜。市场认为，凯文·沃什此前的政策 倾向带有"鹰派"色彩，将削弱黄金的吸引力，黄金、白银价格应声跳水，美元则出现反弹。北京时间1月31日凌晨，现货白银价 格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌 幅。 凯文·沃什的履历堪称"豪华"，他出生于1970年，是此前所有下任美联储主席热门候选人中最年轻的一位。但他同时又是横跨华 尔街、白宫与美联储的"年轻老将"。 凯文·沃什拥有斯坦福大学文学学士和哈佛法学院法学博士学历，曾是经济学家弗里德曼的研究助手；1995年至2002年任职于知 名投行摩根士丹利，积累扎实华尔街经验；2002年至2006年进入小布什政府，担任总统经济政策特别助理、白宫国家经济委员 会执行秘书，搭建深厚政治资源；2006年至2011年，35岁的凯文·沃什出任美联储理 ...

Group 1 - Global investors are showing renewed interest in China, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon highlighting the positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market and an increase in IPO activity [1][3] - The demand for corporate financial advisory services is recovering, driven by the vitality of local enterprises and rapid growth in technology sectors such as artificial intelligence [1][3] - Goldman Sachs is committed to long-term development in China, actively participating in the wealth management market through its joint venture with ICBC [1][3] Group 2 - Solomon has observed a constructive outlook for China's economy, predicting that by 2025, it will achieve its growth targets, with a focus on optimizing economic structure and expanding consumption [2] - The shift in economic growth drivers towards consumption and the service economy is expected to support China's growth over the next decade [2] - Healthcare services are identified as a significant growth area due to changes in the population structure [2] Group 3 - The recent positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the acceleration of IPOs provide new growth opportunities for Goldman Sachs' investment banking business in China [3] - The firm is closely monitoring the development of China's economy, market trends, and areas of growth, indicating a long-term commitment to its business in the region [4][6] - Solomon believes that the attractiveness of the Chinese stock market, relative to other major global markets, depends on economic growth and corporate earnings expectations [5] Group 4 - Solomon emphasizes the importance of a balanced economic structure and ongoing market openness as key factors in attracting capital inflows into China [7]

Group 1: Core Insights - Global investors are showing renewed interest in China, with significant opportunities arising from the growth of local enterprises and advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence [1][2] - Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the long-term development and opening of the Chinese market, planning to deepen its business engagement in China [1][2][3] Group 2: Investment Banking Opportunities - The recent positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the acceleration of IPOs indicate a recovery in demand for corporate financial advisory services, presenting new growth opportunities for Goldman Sachs [3] - The rapid growth of domestic companies, especially in cutting-edge fields like artificial intelligence and the digital economy, supports the expansion of Goldman Sachs' investment banking business in China [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve its growth targets by 2025, with structural optimization and increased consumption enhancing stability and sustainability [2] - The shift in economic growth drivers towards consumption and the service economy is anticipated to be significant over the next decade [2] Group 4: Market Attractiveness - From a relative valuation perspective, the Chinese stock market remains attractive compared to other major global markets, contingent on economic growth and corporate earnings expectations [4] - Specific asset allocation strategies are recommended for different demographics, emphasizing higher equity exposure for younger investors and more conservative allocations for those nearing retirement [4] Group 5: Long-term Commitment - Goldman Sachs is committed to long-term development in the Chinese market, encouraged by the growth of the capital market and ongoing opening measures [6] - The balance of economic structure and the continuous improvement of market openness are seen as key factors for attracting capital inflows [6]