1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices fell overnight, with Brent's December contract down 1.96%. Considering geopolitical games, the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, and OPEC+ production increases, the upside for oil price rebounds is limited. A strategy combining short positions in crude oil and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [2] - Precious metals continued to decline overnight. With the easing of trade tensions and the upcoming meeting on a cease - fire plan, short - term safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Wait patiently for stabilization before participation, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices showed resilience overnight. Supply disruptions and a high gold - to - copper ratio support copper prices. There is still potential in the volume and price of Shanghai copper. Pay attention to the callback range and buy on dips [4] - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly overnight. Short - term macro - positive sentiment dominates, but the fundamental resonance is limited. Be cautious about the upside [5] - For cast aluminum alloy, scrap aluminum sources are tight, and tax policy adjustment expectations increase costs. However, with high industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts, it follows aluminum prices and has no independent market [6] - Alumina has a high operating capacity and rising inventory. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is mainly in a weak operation [7] - Zinc smelters in China are actively operating, and as winter storage approaches, TC for both domestic and foreign mines has decreased. The opening of the spot export window and low LME inventories support its strong performance, pulling up the Shanghai zinc market. It is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8] - The demand for lead has weakened as downstream battery enterprises are less accepting of high prices. The fundamentals of lead are turning weak. Long - position holders should exit on rallies [9] - Nickel prices are in a weak operation. The nickel industry chain is constrained by over - supply, and downstream demand is cautious. The price center is likely to move down [10] - Tin prices oscillated higher overnight. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - disturbing factors have eased. Tin prices follow copper prices, and a small short position can be tentatively established [11] Group 3: Industrial Metals and Alloys - The price of lithium carbonate pulled back after rising. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments [12] - After the release of positive factors for polysilicon listed companies, the upward momentum on the disk is under pressure. There is a risk of a callback in the short term without new policy support [13] - Industrial silicon futures fell slightly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, but there are expectations of supply improvement in November. The disk is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is improving, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is rising. However, the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industry chain remains. The price rebound is restricted by weak demand expectations [15] - Iron ore prices rebounded overnight. The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] Group 5: Coal - Related Products - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, but coking profits are average. The price may be more likely to rise than fall [17] - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Although there is a short - term impact on hot - metal production, the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant. The price may be more likely to rise than fall [18] - Manganese silicon prices oscillated. The demand is affected by the possible decline in hot - metal production. The price follows the trend of steel [19] - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The overall demand is acceptable, and the price follows the trend of steel [20] Group 6: Shipping - The spot market quotes for the container shipping index (European line) have been lowered, suppressing market sentiment. The disk may oscillate in the near term, and it is recommended to build positions on dips [21] Group 7: Fuels and Asphalt - Fuel oil prices fell overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals but may get some support from geopolitical factors and winter power - generation demand [22] - The planned production of asphalt in November is significantly lower. The "peak - season" demand is weaker than expected, and the upward space for prices is limited [23] Group 8: Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Chemicals - The price of liquefied petroleum gas has been boosted by the improvement in fundamentals, such as reduced supply and increased demand [24] - Urea prices pulled back. The supply - surplus situation persists, but there may be a phased rebound after the price drops to a low level [25] - Methanol futures prices continued to fall. The port inventory is under pressure, and the market is likely to oscillate at a low level [26] - Pure benzene prices continued to fall overnight. The mid - term pressure comes from high imports. A reverse - spread strategy on the monthly spread is recommended [27] - Styrene prices are under long - term pressure due to high inventory in the industry chain [28] - The supply pressure of polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene is difficult to ease. The impact on prices is limited [29] - PVC prices fluctuate narrowly. The fundamentals are weak, and it may operate in a bottom - range. Caustic soda prices continue to weaken, and the supply pressure is high [30] - PX and PTA prices fell slightly. The supply pressure is large, and a reverse - spread strategy is recommended in the medium term [31] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is a mid - term inventory - accumulation expectation. Short positions can be established on price increases [32] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost. Short - fiber may accumulate inventory again, and bottle - chip processing margins are under pressure [33] Group 9: Building Materials - Glass prices rose slightly. The spot market in Shahe shows marginal improvement. The price decline is expected to be limited at present [34] - For natural rubber and its derivatives, demand is gradually recovering, but supply pressure is large. Market sentiment is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35] - Soda ash costs are rising, and supply is increasing slightly. A high - short strategy is recommended after a price rebound [36] Group 10: Agricultural Products - US soybeans and domestic soybean meal prices rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions. Wait and see for now and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [37] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by trade expectations and supply - demand factors. In the long term, it is recommended to go long on vegetable oils on dips [38] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are affected by factors such as Sino - Australian relations and Russian exports. Rapeseed meal prices may rebound in the short term, while rapeseed oil prices are under pressure [39] - Soybean No. 1 prices rose rapidly from a low level. Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic policies [40] - Corn prices are under pressure due to the continuous supply of new grain. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [41] - Live - hog futures prices weakened significantly, while spot prices rose. After the price rebound, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [42] - Egg prices failed to continue rising. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [43] - Cotton prices are supported by the increase in new - cotton costs. The short - term price increase is a rebound with limited space. Wait and see for now [44] - Sugar prices are under pressure due to sufficient international supply. In China, the focus is on the new - season production estimate [45] - Apple prices are relatively strong. High - quality apples have stable prices, but low - quality apples may face inventory pressure [46] - Wood prices are weak. Low inventory provides strong support. Wait and see for now [47] - Pulp prices may oscillate in a bottom - range. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average [48] Group 11: Financial Products - A - share stocks oscillated and sorted. The macro - level uncertainty is reduced, but funds are still cautious. Focus on technology - growth sectors for asset allocation [49] - Treasury futures rose across the board. The Fed's policy direction is uncertain, and the domestic bond market is in a repair stage [50]

从市场整体情况来看，10月27日国际原油期货价格下跌，业者鲜有入市操作意向，市场购销气氛不佳。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分区域来看，宁夏汽油批发价格上涨，新疆、吉林、内蒙古、甘肃、重庆、海南、山东、山西、北京、 天津汽油批发价格下跌；新疆、内蒙古、海南、甘肃、宁夏、江西、吉林、重庆、山西、河南柴油批发 价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格下跌，柴油价格小幅下跌。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 新华财经北京10月29日电（薛尚文）中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，10月28日，中国汽、柴油批发价格均 下跌。全国92#汽油平均批发价格为7551元／吨，较前一日下跌31元／吨；柴油（含低凝点）平均批发 价格为6548元／吨，较前一日下跌32元／吨。 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：德国经济和能源部长莱歇告诉路透，美国政府已书面保证，俄油在德国的业务将免受新的 能源制裁，因为这些资产已不再由俄罗斯控制；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令军方立即在加沙发动"强 力打击"，以回应士兵在加沙遇袭事件，此举重新引发了市场对中东供应的担忧；印度石油公司高 管：绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油；中性 2.基差：10月28日，阿曼原油现货价为65.60美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，基差 22.24元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月24日当周API原油库存减少4 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: October 29, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24 decreased by 4.02 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 2.981 million barrels in the previous week [3]. - Israel attacked Gaza again, but US officials said the cease - fire "remained in effect". Hamas postponed the return of Israeli detainees' remains due to Israeli attacks [3]. - Russia's Peskov said it was currently unable to assess the prospects of restarting Russia - Ukraine negotiations, citing Ukraine's lack of willingness to continue dialogue [3]. - An executive of an Indian oil company stated that India would never completely stop buying Russian crude [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the Brent crude price would be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 in the second half [4]. - Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17 [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a 0.2% decline [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, a 0.2% increase for the week ending October 17 [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.918 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 267,000 barrels, with an expected decrease of 75,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 4.529 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 294,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7].

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京10月28日电（郑大伟）截至2025年10月28日，中国能化现货估价指数报 836.63点，较前一工作日（10月27日，下同）下跌 5.68点，跌幅为0.67%，较基期（2024年7月2日）下跌163.37点，跌幅为16.34%。 天然气行业估价指数报984.29点，较前一工作日下跌1.89点，跌幅为0.19%。 化工行业估价指数报826.11点，较前一工作日下跌0.45点，跌幅为0.05%。 图为中国能化现货估价指数走势图 昨日国际油价收盘下跌，成品油零售价下调如期落实，消息面利空下，能源化工市场呈现疲软小跌局面，带动中国能化现货估价指数下 跌0.67%。其中，PTA等个别化工品在期货市场偏强整理带动下，现货市场虽然交投清淡但价格略坚挺。 其中，石油行业估价指数报815.51点，较前一工作日下跌10.63点，跌幅为1.29%。 表为当期中国能化现货监测估价情况 | （单位：元／吨，山东、上海、舟山保税船燃单位：美元／吨） | | --- | | 行业 | 品类 | 详情 | 当期价格 | 上期价格 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 原油：暂时空单持有，关注东北亚供应紧张对 SC 支撑 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收跌 1.16 美元/桶，跌幅 1.89%，报 60.15 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 1.22 美元/桶，跌幅 1.86%，报 64.40 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 8.30 元/桶，跌幅 1.78%， 报 458.10 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | | | 套利状 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参考基 | 炼油配置 | 套利原油 | 态与价 | 关键说明 | | 准原油 | | | 值 (美元 /桶) | | | | | 阿拉伯超轻质 | -5.92 | 相对于美国本土轻质原油无套利 优势。 | | | 裂化 (FCC & | 阿拉伯轻质 | -7.01 | 套利窗口关闭，价差更大。 | | WTI MEH | HCU) | 安哥拉 Nemba | -5.42 | 无套利优势。 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for enhanced macroeconomic governance and the implementation of proactive macro policies to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, while promoting an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [1]. Economic Policy - The Central Committee's suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan highlight the importance of aligning fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of policy implementation, and optimizing performance evaluations for high-quality development [1][7]. - The focus is on creating an economic development model that is more reliant on domestic demand and consumption, with a strong emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1]. Commodity Market Insights Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen significant fluctuations, with geopolitical tensions easing and central banks increasing gold reserves as a safe-haven asset [2][19]. - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, which has influenced the pricing dynamics of precious metals [2][19]. Oil Market - The oil market is affected by sanctions imposed by the U.S. on major Russian oil companies, leading to a downward trend in oil prices despite geopolitical tensions [3][14]. - The overall outlook for oil prices remains bearish due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and ongoing uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape [3][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures have shown slight rebounds, with inventory levels increasing, indicating a cautious market environment [3][18]. - Soda ash production is also experiencing inventory build-up, and the market is closely monitoring consumption trends in the upcoming autumn season [3][18]. Financial Market Developments Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices continue to rise, with a notable increase in financing balances, suggesting a favorable liquidity environment for equity investments [11]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more balanced investment style, with a focus on value recovery in the fourth quarter [11]. Government Bonds - The yield on 10-year government bonds has decreased, supported by the central bank's commitment to maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [12]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lower-than-expected inflation data are contributing to expectations of further interest rate cuts [12]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China is set to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the capital market and enhance policy effectiveness [8]. - The focus on technological self-reliance and economic growth synchronization is a key theme in the 15th Five-Year Plan [7].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025-2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel, considering the steady advancement of global renewable energy alternatives and the gradual lifting of OPEC's voluntary production cuts [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The predicted average Brent crude oil prices for Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 are $63, $61, and $60 per barrel respectively [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the demand for oil from producing countries will prioritize revenue over volume, indicating a potential for price stabilization [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to balance the market after temporarily sacrificing prices to gain market share, which may lead to a new round of collaborative agreements [1] - The influence of North American shale oil costs and the significant increase in supply from South America are highlighted as factors that could support the Brent oil price at $60 per barrel in the long term [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - High-dividend energy oligopolies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, along with growth in natural gas operations, are identified as potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025-2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel, considering the steady advancement of global renewable energy alternatives and the gradual lifting of OPEC's voluntary production cuts [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices in Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 is $63, $61, and $60 per barrel respectively [1] - The long-term price support is expected to be around $60 per barrel, influenced by the increased bargaining power of South American suppliers and accelerated global energy transition [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is anticipated to sacrifice short-term prices to regain market share, which may lead to a new round of collaborative agreements to balance the market [1] - The ability of high-dividend energy oligopolies to increase production and reduce costs, along with their natural gas business growth, presents potential investment opportunities [1]