消息面上，国际原油市场在春节假期期间迎来强势反弹，布伦特原油期货累计涨超5%，美国WTI原油 期货累计涨幅超4%。有市场人士分析认为，美伊局势的反复摇摆以及美国贸易政策的突变，是影响油 价走势的重要因素。展望油价后市，西南期货认为，在美伊关系缓和之前，地缘政治风险将呈现高压状 态，推升原油价格。 截至13:57，石化ETF（159731）涨3.74%，持仓股和邦生物、云天化、川发龙蟒涨停。从资金净流入方 面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计12.50亿元。石化ETF最新份额达17.61亿 份，最新规模17.84亿元。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻辑。 不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值，在油 价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 信达证券称，2026年原油基本面见底有望，油价中枢有望在多重因素制衡下，维持在55美元/桶~65美 元/桶的区间内宽幅震荡。在供给格局优化、需求稳步复苏背景下，炼化行业有望迎来景气上行周期。 ...

截至2月24日13点32分，石化ETF（159731）涨3.84%，持仓股和邦生物、云天化、川发龙蟒涨幅居前。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计12.50亿元。石化ETF最新份 额达17.61亿份，最新规模17.84亿元。 2月14日，财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合发布"十五五"期间能源资源勘探开发进口税收优惠政策， 聚焦海洋油气勘探与应急保障，对相关自营项目进口的关键设备、仪器等免征进口关税。该政策将有利 于增强我国海洋油气勘探开发能力和应急救援水平，有效降低相关企业进口成本。 国信证券认为，深海油气开发兼具战略价值和商业价值，在政策及一系列科研项目推动下，深海油气开 发有望快速发展，并取得较高经济利益，海洋油气企业有望受益。 平安证券认为，国内油企通过上下游一体化布局和多元化油气进口来源而降低了整体业绩对价格波动的 敏感性，并通过加速在国内挖掘海上油气资源和在一带一路沿线国家投资油气项目等方式降低能源对外 依存度；同时，全球炼油产能增速趋缓，海外成品油供给收紧，汽柴油裂解价差有望修复，或利好国内 油品生产企业。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（01785 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.705 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as of February 23, the domestic reference crude oil price change rate is 3.98%, leading to expected increases in retail prices for gasoline and diesel [1] - The anticipated adjustments in retail prices are an increase of 175 yuan per ton for gasoline and 170 yuan per ton for diesel, which translates to price increases of 0.14 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.15 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.14 yuan for 0 diesel per liter [1] - The price adjustment window is set for February 24, 2026, at 24:00 [1]

2026 年 2 月 24 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | 2603 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 -0.44% | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | 0.00% | | 2603 | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2604 | 4,252 4,416 | -2.50% | 4,252 4,416 | 0.00% | PG | 2604 | 49,268 52,749 | 5,674 10,989 | 16,079 70,764 | -5,032 -3,676 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4,335 | -2.52% | 4,335 | 0.00% | | 2605 | 4,190 | 1,883 | 8,429 | 647 | | | | 2603 | 6,172 | -1.69% | 6,172 | 0.00% | | 2603 | 339 | -141 | 1,443 | ...

1、半导体(A类) 1）SK海力士：今年无法满足所有客户的需求，涨价将贯穿全年(2.22)； 兆易创新、普冉股份、江波龙等； 2、人形机器人(N类) 1）马年春晚带动机器人卖爆：机器人搜索量环比增长超300%(2.16)； 2）官媒点评：春晚"机器人浓度超高"，具身智能未来已来(2.17)；中鼎股份、三花智控、拓普集团等； 3、无人驾驶(N类) 特斯拉宣布，首辆 Cybercab 在美国得州超级工厂正式下线( 春节假期热门题材汇总： 1、半导体(A类) 1）SK海力士：今年无法满足所有客户的需求，涨价将贯穿全年(2.22)； 兆易创新、普冉股份、江波龙等； 2、人形机器人(N类) 1）马年春晚带动机器人卖爆：机器人搜索量环比增长超300%(2.16)； 2）官媒点评：春晚"机器人浓度超高"，具身智能未来已来(2.17)；中鼎股份、三花智控、拓普集团等； 3、无人驾驶(N类) 特斯拉宣布，首辆 Cybercab 在美国得州超级工厂正式下线(2.18)； 浙江世宝、万集科技、联创电子等； 春节假期热门题材汇总： 4、商业航天(N类) 1）马斯克称星舰每年将发射超过1万颗卫星(2.20)； 2）巴西国家电信监管机构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/02/09 | 375.60 | 422.78 | -9.21 | 665.89 | -243.11 | 22.24 | 47.18 | | 2026/02/10 | 375.29 | 420.18 | -9.00 | 657.32 | -237.14 | 21.50 | 44.89 | | 2026/02/11 | 379.35 | 426.72 | -9.44 | 671.86 | -245.14 | 22.75 | 47.37 | | ...

国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：2月18日以来由于海外市场对于美国与伊朗开战的预期快速上 升，原油市场担忧已经进入战争倒计时阶段因而地缘风险溢价快速上升。19日据CBS新闻援引知情人士 透露，美国高级国家安全官员已告知特朗普，军方最快可能于周六对伊朗发动打击。18日以来布伦特原 油自约66美元/桶涨至高点72美元/桶，美伊战争风险是主要推动因素。 风险提示 布伦特原油净多持仓回升至2年来高位，1月看涨期权押注升至历史最高值。2025年12月14日布伦特原油 净多持仓仍由于对2026年过剩预期处于2012年以来的低位。但由于美国伊朗战争风险快速上升，截至 2026年2月17日布伦特净多持仓回升至2年来低位。同时由于美国伊朗地缘风险上升，2026年1月布伦特 买入看涨期权成交量创历史最高水平。市场已经从此前的美伊博弈阶段进入战争冲突爆发前夕的倒数计 时阶段。 美国伊朗局势对后市原油价格的短期推演起到决定作用。多国宣布撤侨，美国调动海空军事力量部署至 中东区域形成双航母打击群，战争风险快速上升。以71美元/桶为标准，我们认为当下计价伊朗地缘风 险约10美元/桶。我们认为后续伊朗事态发展或有四种可能性①美国与伊朗外 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]