Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report constructs a multi - dimensional analysis framework based on long - term expectations, medium - term cycles, and short - term shocks to systematically sort out the core driving forces and future trends of US inflation [3]. - The Fed's "risk - management style" rate cuts will not restructure the inflation pattern as this round of cuts occurs in a non - recession environment and is more about maintaining economic resilience rather than causing a significant rebound in inflation [3]. - Long - term inflation expectations are anchored, and the Fed's independence remains a key stabilizer, with limited risk of long - term inflation getting out of control [3]. - Endogenous inflation momentum is slowing, and most structural sub - items show downward pressure, except for possible mild rebounds in durables and core services (excluding rent) inflation [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Inflation Analysis's Three - Dimensional Framework: Long - term Expectations, Core Dynamics, and Short - term Shocks - The Fed assesses inflation trends through a three - dimensional framework: long - term inflation expectations, core inflation, and short - term price shocks [11]. - Long - term inflation is anchored by monetary policy through expectations, core inflation's mid - term fluctuations are driven by the economic cycle, and external factors cause short - term disturbances [12]. - Long - term inflation expectations are the core pillar of the Fed's inflation management, core inflation reflects the domestic demand and labor market, and short - term shocks are usually temporary and exogenous [13]. - "Risk - management style" rate cuts generally do not lead to a significant inflation rebound based on historical experience and logical reasons [20][21]. 2. Is the Fed's Long - term Inflation Anchor Failing? - Although inflation has been persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the 5 - year/5 - year forward break - even inflation rate shows that the market's long - term inflation expectations remain stable [33]. - A quantitative model shows that the Fed's 2% inflation target has played a decisive role in guiding and stabilizing market expectations, and currently, the market may overestimate Trump's short - term impact on the Fed's independence [36][40]. 3. Reconstructing US Inflation Analysis: A Six - Sub - item Analysis Framework 3.1 Food and Beverage: Obvious Dual - Factor Drive of Commodity and Labor Costs - The cost of US food mainly concentrates on the middle and lower reaches of processing and circulation. The CRB food index and salary growth indicators are in a downward trend, so the food sub - item's upward momentum for overall inflation will weaken [3][51]. 3.2 Energy: Inflation Thrust Easing under Changing Supply - Demand Patterns - Energy has a significant impact on overall inflation. In 2025 - 2026, the global crude oil market's supply growth is expected to exceed demand, reducing the risk of a significant upward movement in US inflation [3][56][58]. 3.3 Rent: Lags US Housing Prices by about 15 Months - Rent is a key driver of CPI. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of rent is expected to slow to about 2.88%, leading to a 0.3% decline in overall inflation [3][71]. 3.4 Durables: May Face Some Upward Pressure in 2026 - Durables inflation may face upward pressure in 2026, but the pulling effect on inflation is expected to be mild due to the slowdown in the job market and consumer pressure [3][88]. 3.5 Non - durables: Obvious Cost - Driven Characteristics - Non - durables demand is rigid, and prices are mainly cost - driven. Based on the prediction of a decline in the crude oil price center in 2026, non - durables inflation is expected to cool down or fluctuate narrowly [91]. 3.6 Core Services: The Labor Market is the Core Driver - Core services inflation (excluding rent) is mainly driven by the labor market's tightness. Currently, the labor market is demand - driven, and there is no sustainable upward momentum for this type of inflation [3][111].

地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近4%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，首次升破4600美元大关，再创历史新高，新年迄今累涨约280美元。 原油市场同样反应剧烈，布伦特原油和WTI原油双双涨超1%。数据显示，布伦特原油在经历了上周四和周五近6%的跳涨后，目前正逼近每桶64美元关口， 创下自10月以来的最大两日涨幅；WTI原油价格则维持在60美元附近。 涨幅扩大至近5%，价格继续突破此前新高，最高触及84.02美元。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that in a declining economic growth environment and a low-interest-rate era, dividend strategies remain effective as investors seek more certain assets [2][35] - The article highlights that the policy support is enhancing the attractiveness of dividend assets, with a notable increase in dividend payouts from listed companies, particularly since 2024 [9][10][35] - The S&P Hong Kong Low Volatility Dividend Index (SPAHLVCP.SPI) is presented as having better investment value compared to A-shares, with a 12-month dividend yield of 5.6% and a PE ratio of 5.7 times as of December 31, 2025 [14][31][36] Group 2 - The S&P Hong Kong Low Volatility Dividend Index was launched on February 20, 2017, and consists of 50 low-volatility stocks selected from 75 high-dividend securities that meet the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligibility criteria [21][36] - The index is primarily composed of large-cap stocks, with a balanced distribution across sectors such as finance, real estate, and energy, and it has a historical performance that outperforms the Hang Seng Index and other dividend indices [22][33][36] - The index has shown a cumulative increase of 99.41% since 2021, with an annualized return of approximately 14.8%, indicating strong long-term performance [18][33][36]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a stark divergence, with precious metals experiencing a significant bull market while oil and black commodities faced oversupply issues [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw remarkable price increases, with gold rising over 60% and silver soaring 102% [2] - The agricultural market showed mixed results, with oilseeds benefiting from biofuel policies while grains remained subdued due to ample supply [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver emerged as the strongest sectors, driven by "de-dollarization" and interest rate cuts, leading to a substantial increase in gold purchases by central banks [2] - Central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly above pre-2022 averages [2] - The global gold ETF holdings increased by over 700 tons, reaching a total of 3932 tons, marking a record annual growth [2] Group 3: Base Metals - Copper and aluminum prices strengthened due to a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with copper prices reaching a historical high of 13,387.5 USD/ton [3] - A projected cumulative copper mine deficit of 3.13 million tons from 2026 to 2029 is anticipated due to supply instability [3] - Demand for copper related to green transition initiatives is significant, with investments in electric grids and data centers driving consumption [3] Group 4: Oil and Black Commodities - The oil market is characterized by a significant oversupply, with a daily surplus of 1.795 million barrels expected in 2025 [4] - The black commodities sector, particularly steel, is struggling, with steel mill profitability dropping from 68.4% to 36.4% [4] - Diesel markets are experiencing strength due to reduced Russian exports, despite overall oil market challenges [4] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Oilseeds are performing well, driven by increased biofuel blending ratios in Indonesia and Brazil, leading to an 8% growth in industrial consumption [4] - Other agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, are expected to see price declines due to favorable supply conditions [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue its divergent trends into 2026, influenced by a "weak recovery and loose monetary policy" macroeconomic backdrop [6] - Strategic security, green transition, and emerging demand are identified as key structural opportunities for investment in 2026 [6] - Precious metals and core base metals are projected to maintain strong support, while the oil market is expected to remain under pressure [6][7]

【学思践悟】 由此可见，中央企业并非一般市场主体，其运营深度融入国家战略，在关键时刻能够调集资源、攻坚克 难，是维护国家核心利益、应对重大风险挑战最可信赖的力量。中央企业之所以能够在统筹发展和安全 中发挥重要支柱作用，也是由其独特的战略属性和综合能力所决定的。 从国内建设与经济发展维度看，中央企业是中国特色社会主义的重要物质基础。其产权属性和治理结构 决定了必须将国家战略目标和公共利益置于重要位置。这使得中央企业能够超越单纯的利润目标，在投 资周期长、风险高但关乎国计民生的战略性、基础性领域进行长期布局和持续投入。同时，中央企业通 常规模巨大、体系完整，具备强大的资源动员能力和跨产业协调能力，能够在国家需要时迅速形成合 力，应对系统性风险。这种国家所有、服务人民的根本属性，是中央企业承担安全发展重任的重要前 提。 从国际合作与大国博弈维度看，中央企业是国家参与全球竞争与全球治理的关键载体。当前保护主义、 单边主义抬头，世界经济面临的风险挑战增多，全球产业链供应链面临重构风险。中央企业作为中国经 济的国家队，在参与国际经贸规则制定、保障海外资源供应、维护跨境基础设施安全等方面扮演着主力 军角色。他们通过市场化方 ...

A powerful mix of defense spending, AI infrastructure deals and takeover speculation sent several large-cap stocks sharply higher last week, reshaping the market's leaderboard.These ten large-cap stocks were top performers last week. Are they a part of your portfolio?Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:RGC) gained 89.45% this week.Revolution Medicines, Inc. (NASDAQ:RVMD) increased 51.38% this week following reports suggesting that Merck is in talks to buy the company in a deal potentially valued a ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Chinese companies in their overseas expansion due to changing geopolitical landscapes, complex business environments, and potential cultural and technological barriers [1] - It emphasizes the need for companies to elevate risk management to a strategic level to ensure sustainable overseas operations, which is crucial for both corporate success and national development [1] Group 1: Development Stages and Dynamics of Chinese Companies Going Global - Since joining the WTO in 2001, Chinese companies have transitioned from tentative layouts to strategic actions, with foreign direct investment stock reaching $31,399.3 billion by the end of 2024, a 105-fold increase since 2002 [2] - China has risen from 25th to a stable position among the top three in global rankings for foreign direct investment, with the number of overseas enterprises growing at an average annual rate of 10.4% to 52,000 [2] - Investment distribution shows a stable concentration in Hong Kong (55%-60%) and rapid growth in Southeast Asia, while the share of traditional markets like the U.S. has decreased from 2.6% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2024 [2] Group 2: Evolution of Outbound Investment Models - The outbound investment model has evolved through three stages: cost-driven exports (2001-2010), brand expansion (2011-2020), and ecosystem export (from 2021 onwards), where companies are now exporting technology, standards, and management practices [3] - The transition is driven by three main forces: market saturation and competitive pressure, technological iteration and industrial upgrading, and the need for resource acquisition and strategic positioning [3] Group 3: Risks Faced by Chinese Companies Abroad - Political risks are the primary challenge, influenced by the stability of host countries, policy changes, and international relations, which can affect operations and lead to significant financial losses [4] - Economic risks include exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, and changes in economic cycles, which can impact profitability and investment returns [4] - Legal risks arise from differences in legal systems, intellectual property protection, and contract enforcement, potentially leading to compliance issues and financial penalties [5] - Cultural risks stem from differences in language, customs, and values, which can create communication barriers and management conflicts [6] - Market risks involve variations in market demand, competitive dynamics, and consumer behavior, which can affect product sales and profitability [6] - Technological risks relate to differing technical standards and the pace of innovation, which can hinder market access and competitiveness [6] Group 4: Recommendations for Risk Mitigation - Companies should prioritize compliance management by understanding local regulations and forming high-caliber legal teams to navigate complex legal environments [8] - Diversifying business layouts across mature and emerging markets can mitigate risks associated with over-concentration in a single market [8] - Establishing robust technology and intellectual property protections is essential for maintaining competitive advantages in international markets [9] - Companies should enhance their ability to utilize policy and financial tools to manage risks effectively, including leveraging government resources and financial products [9] - Focusing on deep localization and building sustainable ecosystems is crucial for integrating into local markets and reducing operational friction [9] Conclusion - In the context of complex international dynamics, companies must adopt a strategic approach to compliance, diversification, technology protection, policy utilization, and localization to navigate risks and achieve sustainable growth [10]

Market Overview - The US labor market remains resilient, with the unemployment rate marginally decreasing to 4.4% in December 2025[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield recorded 4.18%, down 1 basis point this week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.1[15] - Gold prices increased by 3.68% and oil prices surged by 3.74% due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russian oil[4] Asset Correlation and Inflation - The long-term correlation between US stocks and bonds has slightly declined since 2025, with expectations of continued low inflation in 2026[10] - If geopolitical factors lead to a significant rise in oil prices, the correlation may remain high, undermining the hedging effectiveness of US bonds against stocks[10] Global Fund Flows - Global funds saw a significant outflow of $12.07 billion from US equity funds and a substantial inflow of $14.18 billion into US fixed-income funds[4] - Chinese stock markets attracted capital inflows, particularly in materials, communications, and healthcare sectors[4] Valuation Metrics - As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the S&P 500 and CAC 40, reaching 93.2% of its historical percentile[4] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 rose to 60%, while the Nasdaq's increased from 37% to 46%[4] Economic Indicators - The market is pricing in a 95.60% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January 2026[4] - Upcoming key economic indicators include the US inflation data for December 2025[4] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not reflect long-term trends, and there is a risk of deeper-than-expected economic recession in Europe and the US[4]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Industrial Consumer Goods Drive Moderate Price Recovery - December 2025 CPI and PPI Review" [1] - The report was published on January 11, 2026 [10] Group 2: Report Highlights and Core Views - In December 2025, domestic prices improved unexpectedly supported by imported factors and pre - holiday consumption. Core CPI year - on - year growth remained at 1.2%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed [2] - In 2026, food CPI may still be dragged down by pig prices in the first half of the year, but the service sector is resilient, and the industrial consumer goods sector is supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the international metal price increase cycle. With the low - base effect, prices may continue a moderate recovery. It is neutrally expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will turn positive in the fourth quarter [2] - This year, the bond market may operate in an environment of moderate price recovery. The long - term bond is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.9%. The bond market's periodic recovery opportunity may come in the second half of the first quarter [2] Group 3: December 2025 Price Data - In December 2025, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.8% year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. Core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year [7] - In December 2025, PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and fell 1.9% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month [7] Group 4: Factors Affecting CPI Core CPI - Industrial consumer goods are the main support for core CPI, while service prices are stable. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI remained at 1.2% for three consecutive months [11] - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial consumer goods (excluding energy) prices increased to 2.5% for six consecutive months, driving the year - on - year increase of CPI by about 0.63 percentage points. Gold jewelry prices rose 5.6% month - on - month due to rising international gold prices; copper and memory price increases drove household appliances and communication tools to rise 1.4% and 3% month - on - month respectively; the price decline of fuel cars and new - energy cars narrowed to 2.4% and 2.2% year - on - year respectively [11] - Service prices improved steadily, with the year - on - year growth rate slightly falling 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%. Among them, the month - on - month prices of household services and medical services were still stronger than the seasonal average [11] Overall CPI - The increase in food prices drove CPI to continue rising, while energy prices still dragged down CPI. In December 2025, CPI was stronger than the seasonal average month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023 [11] - Food prices rose 1.1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, driving the year - on - year increase of CPI by about 0.21 percentage points. Pre - holiday consumption demand pushed up the prices of fresh fruits and shrimps and crabs by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. The drag of pork and egg prices on the year - on - year CPI decreased, but pig prices may remain low in the first half of this year [11] - Energy prices fell 3.8% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month. Affected by international oil price changes, domestic gasoline prices fell 1.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline expanded to 8.4% [11] Group 5: Factors Affecting PPI - The continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove the month - on - month increase of PPI for three consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. In December 2025, the month - on - month growth rate of PPI rebounded for three consecutive months, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%. The year - on - year decline of PPI also narrowed by 0.3 percentage points to - 1.9% [11] - The year - on - year declines of both living materials and production materials narrowed. Production materials rose 0.3% month - on - month, while living materials remained flat month - on - month [11] - With the implementation of the "anti - involution" measures, the supply - demand structure of some industries improved, and the year - on - year price declines of the coal mining and washing, lithium - ion battery manufacturing, and photovoltaic industries narrowed [11] - The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove the prices of non - ferrous metal mining and dressing and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries to rise 3.7% and 2.8% month - on - month respectively, with the increases expanding by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [11] Group 6: Upstream and Downstream Price Trends - The prices of upstream mining industries continued to rise, while the prices of mid - and downstream industries were stable. The price game may have been transmitted to the downstream. The substantial implementation of the "anti - involution" policy drove the continuous price recovery of industries such as coal and photovoltaic, but some key industries for capacity management did not improve significantly [11] - Among upstream industries, the prices of coal mining and washing and non - ferrous metal mining and dressing increased for many months, while the year - on - year price growth rates of industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing (- 7.9%) and non - metallic mineral products (- 6.8%) were still declining [11] - The month - on - month price growth rates of industries such as general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing were basically flat or fluctuated slightly, and the upstream prices of most industries had not been smoothly transmitted to the mid - and downstream raw material processing and manufacturing industries [11] Group 7: Future Outlook - In 2026, food CPI may still be dragged down by pig prices in the first half of the year, but the service sector is resilient, and the industrial consumer goods sector is supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the international metal price increase cycle. With the low - base effect, prices may continue a moderate recovery. It is neutrally expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will turn positive in the fourth quarter [11] - This year, the bond market may operate in an environment of moderate price recovery. The long - term bond is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields expected to adjust to around 1.9% and 2.4% respectively. The bond market's periodic recovery opportunity may come in the second half of the first quarter [11]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Changchun Modern Urban Circle aims to enhance the city's radiating effect, promote urban integration, and serve as a driving force for high-quality development in Jilin Province and revitalization in Northeast China [1] Group 1: Urban Circle Development - The Changchun Modern Urban Circle, centered around Changchun City, includes Jilin City, Siping City, and Liaoyuan City, covering an area of approximately 29,700 square kilometers with a resident population of about 12.1 million [1] - The "Changchun Urban Circle Development Plan" was officially issued in October 2025, marking the transition from planning to implementation [1] Group 2: Industrial Collaboration - The urban circle will leverage its industrial foundation and educational resources to enhance industrial layout and collaborative systems, focusing on sectors like automotive, equipment manufacturing, green food, and fine chemicals [2] - A collaborative model will be established where R&D headquarters are in Changchun, manufacturing occurs within the circle, and innovation results are transformed and applied locally [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Connectivity - Key projects will be initiated in transportation, energy, water resources, and information sectors to improve connectivity and resource flow within the urban circle [3] - A comprehensive transportation network will be developed, including high-speed rail, highways, and aviation, alongside a robust energy and water resource system [3] Group 4: Public Services - The province aims to create a public service system that is equitable, high-quality, and regionally shared, focusing on education, healthcare, and employment security [4] - The goal is to ensure that the benefits of urban circle development are distributed fairly among the population [4] Group 5: Open Cooperation - The urban circle will promote industrial collaboration, transportation linkage, and innovation synergy with other cities in the province, creating five cooperative development zones [5] - New channels and platforms for open cooperation will be established with other provinces in Northeast China, enhancing the region's openness [5]