| Cleiking | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 股指 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 起 示 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 賣金 | 農汤 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期美国消费者信心指数走低、通胀预期走高等压制市场风险偏 | | | | | | | 好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱, 铜价短期偏弱运行。 | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,叠加氧化铝价格反弹提振, | 看头 | | | | | | 铝价短期维持偏强运行。 | 几内亚过渡政府撤销采矿证,相关企业已接到停产通知,铝土矿 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | 供应扰动提升,氧化 ...

2025年05月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：下破支撑位 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 锌：远端过剩，价格承压 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：成本曲线持续下移，走势或仍偏弱 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局，关注上游供应变化 | 17 | | 多晶硅：需求回落，盘面亦维持跌势 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 19 | | 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 19 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 25 | | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市 | 26 | | PTA：多 ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+0.01%到 9440.00 美元/吨，沪铜+0.89%到 7.81 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM, 本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-43.05 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存增至 13.20 万吨，相比周一增加了 0.89 万吨，较上 周四增加了 1.19 万吨。这一增长标志着连续十周的库存下降趋势的终结。库存增加主因是下游需求减弱以及持货商 积极入库。冶炼端，据 SMM，受再生铜原料紧张影响，预计 2025 年 5 月废产阳极铜企业开工率为 43.62%，环比下降 0.70 个百分点。消费端，据 SMM, 本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率上升至 73.26%，环比上升 7.96 个百分点，较 预期值低 3.93 个百分点；漆包线行业开机率微降至 84.4%，订单量增 2.09%，成品库存天数为 8.64 天；再生铜杆市 场目前表现疲软，由于原料成本高昂，企业利润受到挤压，预计 5 月份开工率将下降，行业面临较大挑战。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+2.75%到 2484.50 美元/吨，沪铝+2.78%到 2.01 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming period [4]. Core Insights - The tin ore production in Q1 2025 decreased by 40% year-on-year to 3,215 tons, with a guidance for 2025 indicating a 10.6% increase in tin ore production to 21,500 tons [1][6]. - The average selling price of refined tin increased by 20% to $32,495 per metric ton compared to $27,071 per metric ton in the previous year [2][7]. - The company achieved a net profit of 116.86 billion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2025, exceeding its target by 20% [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, the total production of tin ore was 3,215 tons, down from 5,360 tons in Q1 2024, with onshore production at 1,598 tons (down 51%) and offshore production at 1,617 tons (down 23%) [1][7]. - The production of refined tin was 3,095 tons, a decrease of 31% from 4,475 tons in the same quarter last year [2][7]. - Refined tin sales were 2,874 tons, down 18% from 3,524 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 21 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a 2.1% increase from 20.6 trillion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2024, attributed to the rise in average tin prices [3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 148 billion Indonesian Rupiah, up from 93 billion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2024 [3]. - The company's total assets decreased by 2% to 12.49 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, while liabilities fell by 9% to 4.85 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [5]. 2025 Guidance - The company anticipates that the average price of tin metal in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, driven by increased demand from electronics and advancements in digital technology [6]. - Key targets for 2025 include tin ore production of 21,500 tons (up 10.6%), refined tin production of 21,545 tons (up 13.9%), and sales of refined tin at 19,065 tons (up 8.9%) [6].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The company has revised its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to production interruptions [7] - In Q1 2025, the company processed 160,300 tons of ore, a decrease of 31% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 46.5% year-on-year [1] - The average tin grade for processed ore in Q1 2025 was 3.55%, an 18% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7.3% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average recovery rate of the concentrator was 75%, consistent with previous periods and above the target of 73% [1] - The average tin price achieved in Q1 2025 was $32,507 per ton, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 21% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for tin in Q1 2025 was $16,339 per ton, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 10.5% increase year-on-year [3] - The company held $99 million in cash as of April 17, 2025, and expects to receive $38 million in sales revenue by the end of April 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Production and Operational Performance - Q1 2025 tin production was 4,270 tons, an 18% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 36% increase year-on-year [1] - Tin sales in Q1 2025 were 3,863 tons, a 22% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] - The company increased sales and export volumes by the end of Q1 2025, totaling 4,581 tons by April 16, 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 is $61.8 million, a 19% decrease from the previous quarter but a 19% increase year-on-year [3] - The company has agreed to renew a $53 million overdraft facility, which requires formal documentation and a $28 million international bank guarantee [5] Operational Restart Update - From April 15 to May 11, 2025, the Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 tons of tin, with production gradually increasing as operations resumed [6] - The first batch of tin concentrate with complete records was exported on May 9, 2025 [6]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | 研究员：王伟 | 1.贵金属市场：昨日，因美国经济数据疲软、美元走弱，伦敦金周四收涨 1.98%，报 | | | 3239.6 美元/盎司。伦敦银最终收涨 1.3%，报 32.63 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 合约收涨 1.22%，报 754.32 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 1%，报 8134 元/千克。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 2.美元指数：美元指数下跌，最终收跌 0.16%，报 100.88。 | | | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率回吐前两日涨幅，收报 4.449%。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率在近期高位盘整，最终收涨 0.03%，报 7.2067。 | ...

| 沪锡日评20250516：国内精炼锡产能开工率环比下降，国内外精炼锡库存量较上周增加 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-05-15 2025-05-14 2025-05-09 较昨日变动 | | | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 265210 265770 | 259540 | -560.00 | | | 成交量(手) 72966 86160 沪锡期货活跃合约 | 71445 | -13.194.00 | | | 持仓量(手) 30513 31510 | 30130 | -997.00 | | | 库存(吨) 8163 67 18 | 8402 | -16.00 | | | 沪锡县差 SMM 1#锡半均价 266100 265000 | 259600 | 1,100.00 | | | (现货与期货) 沪锡基差 890 -770 | 60 | 1, 660. 00 | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 -1110 -870 | -240 | -240.00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) 沪锡连 -- 沪锡连二 10 160 | 30 | -150.00 | ...

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 【会议纪要】安泰科 2025 年有色金属市场报告会 有色金属 孙芳芳 Z0018905 2025 年 4 月 29 日，安泰科于北京召开 2025 年有色金属市场报告会，会议纪要梳理如 下。 一、对等关税实施、233 调查还在路上，铜市供需格局将重塑 安泰科高级分析师 王晓旭 全球铜供需及趋势 2024 年全球铜精矿产量同比增长量级低于需求端，2025 年，很多矿企下调了产量目标 预期，冶炼端增长主要贡献仍来自于中国。TC 降至极低水准，铜精矿供应短缺的缓解需要 时间。在实际情况中并不会出现海量供应缺口，市场将自动调节供需关系：一方面缺口产生 后铜精矿加工费将大幅下降，进而抑制铜精矿需求，另一方面供应量不足后，冶炼产能的利 用率将被迫下降，如新增产能推迟投产时间、高成本冶炼项目减产甚至停产等。2026 年以 后冶炼理论新增产能趋于减少，但存量产能爬产或提升利用率，部分项目可能推迟投产，另 考虑其他目前不可知的新产能等，整体预计，铜精矿的供应短缺需要时间才能有效缓解。海 外中长期精铜需求有望重新趋于增长。发达国家的制造业回流、再工业化、新能源和人工智 能(AI)领域的发展，令其需求有望中 ...

有色金属日报 2025-5-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 铜 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走强，商品氛围偏暖，贵金属价格走弱，铜价冲高回落，昨日伦铜收跌 0.34%至 9592 美 元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78650 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 4075 至 185575 吨，注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.8%，Cash/3M 升水 15.8 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所 ...