Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and a 60% increase in adjusted net profit in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% and 60% respectively [1] - For Q4, total revenue and adjusted net profit are expected to grow by 15% and 16% year-on-year, attributed to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Segment - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is anticipated to act as a catalyst for stock price revaluation [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are expected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have already achieved breakeven [1] Group 3: Smartphone and AIoT Business - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue may decline by 3% year-on-year due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is projected to slow down to a year-on-year growth of 5% due to reduced subsidies for trade-ins [1]

里昂预期，小米第四季总收入及调整后净利润将分别同比增长15%及16%，主因智能手机恢复正增长且 电动车交付量持续提升。第二座电动车工厂获批投产，将成为推升股价重估的催化剂。该行维持对 其"高度确信跑赢大市"评级，目标价69港元。 里昂发表报告，预期在电动车销售稳健推动下，小米第三季总收入及经调整净利润将实现同比分别增长 22%及60%，达1129亿及100亿元。期内电动车交付量进一步攀升至10.9万辆，均价约26万元，并可能已 实现收支平衡。 ...

Group 1: China Jushi (600176.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 139.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 25.68 billion yuan, up 67.51% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 26.12 billion yuan, increasing by 125.91% [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 34.91 billion, 41.07 billion, and 46.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by the recovery of fiberglass prices and demand from various downstream sectors [9] Group 2: Transsion Holdings (688036.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 204.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.35 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year [11] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 694.0 billion, 751.7 billion, and 871.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 38.2 billion, 56.7 billion, and 70.8 billion yuan respectively [13] Group 3: Tonglian Precision (688210.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 884,000 yuan, down 91.67% year-on-year [15] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.4 billion, 15.5 billion, and 21.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.0 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan respectively [17] Group 4: Topband Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 26.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, down 44.7% year-on-year [18] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.2 billion, 8.5 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19] Group 5: Inspur Information (000977.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 1206.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a net profit of 14.82 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year [25] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 26.38 billion, 37.31 billion, and 47.77 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [26] Group 6: Benda Pharmaceutical (300558.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 27.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.90%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.17 billion yuan, down 23.86% year-on-year [28] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 35.50 billion, 43.71 billion, and 53.09 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.73 billion, 7.21 billion, and 8.56 billion yuan respectively [29] Group 7: XWANDA (300207.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 435.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.73%, with a net profit of 14.05 billion yuan, up 15.94% year-on-year [35] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.83 billion, 30.29 billion, and 40.31 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [37] Group 8: YH Technology (688080.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 17.5% year-on-year [39] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.5 billion, 2 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [40] Group 9: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 102.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, with a net profit of 31.4 billion yuan, up 125% year-on-year [42] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 107 billion, 205 billion, and 268 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [43] Group 10: Dongfang Tower (002545.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 33.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.05%, with a net profit of 8.28 billion yuan, up 77.57% year-on-year [44] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 12.68 billion, 14.46 billion, and 17.19 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [46]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's automotive division shows promising delivery numbers, but the company faces significant challenges in its smartphone and IoT segments, alongside safety concerns impacting investor confidence [1][2][3] Group 1: Recent Performance - In October, Xiaomi delivered over 40,000 vehicles, with the delivery cycle for the Xiaomi YU7 shortened by up to ten weeks [1] - Xiaomi's stock price had been in a downward trend, experiencing a 20% drop in October, resulting in a market value loss of 279.3 billion HKD [1] - Following a recent incident involving a Xiaomi vehicle catching fire, the stock price fell by 5.71%, leading to a one-day market value loss of 77.3 billion HKD [1][2] Group 2: Financial Outlook - According to CICC, Xiaomi's Q3 revenue is expected to increase by 21.46% year-on-year to 112.36 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit rising by 68.88% to 10.56 billion CNY [3] - The company’s smartphone and IoT segments are anticipated to face pressure due to the reduction of government subsidies, and smartphone gross margins may decline due to rising storage costs [3] - Despite recent challenges, major banks remain optimistic about the automotive business as a potential new profit growth driver for Xiaomi [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - Xiaomi's stock has corrected over 20% from its recent highs, yet it still shows a 25% increase year-to-date, with a PE ratio of approximately 28, placing it in the 30th percentile over the past three years [3] - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Q3 earnings report for insights on smartphone and IoT gross margins and the performance of the automotive business [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown volatility recently, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating around 25,900 to 26,000 points [2][6] - Trading volume has decreased from approximately 300 billion to around 200 billion in recent weeks, indicating a more cautious market sentiment [1][2] - Investors are shifting focus from individual stocks to index-related products, such as ETFs and warrants, due to uncertainty in stock performance [2][3] Investment Strategies - Many investors are adopting a more conservative approach as the year-end approaches, preferring to observe market trends before making further investments [1][2] - The pharmaceutical, retail, and technology sectors have performed well throughout the year, with significant interest in chip stocks [1][2] - Investors are increasingly using index tools to capture market fluctuations, with high leverage options available for index warrants [2][3] Product Offerings - The company has increased the issuance of index-related products to meet market demand, providing a variety of options for investors [3][4] - The issuance of warrants is based on three reference prices, allowing for timely product offerings that align with market conditions [3][4] - Investors can communicate their product needs directly to the company, facilitating a responsive product development process [5][6] Individual Stock Analysis - Xiaomi has seen a significant decline in stock price, dropping from around 60 to 42-43, with investors showing interest in call warrants as a lower-cost entry point [6][7] - BYD's stock has also weakened, with prices falling below 100, leading to cautious interest in call warrants as investors await signs of stabilization [9][10] - Pop Mart, once a market favorite, has experienced a downturn, with mixed investor sentiment reflected in both call and put warrant activity [11][12] Banking Sector Performance - Traditional financial stocks, such as China Construction Bank, have gained attention, with stock prices rising from around 7 to over 8, indicating a shift in investor focus towards more stable sectors [14][15] - The company offers high-leverage warrants for banking stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on the recent upward trend in this sector [16][17]

Core Insights - The future of mobile technology is predicted to see the disappearance of traditional smartphones and apps within the next 5-6 years, with AI assistants becoming the main interface for human-computer interaction [1] - Mobile companies are shifting their focus from cloud collaboration to edge computing, enhancing AI capabilities directly on devices [3][4] Group 1: AI Development Trends - The rise of generative AI, particularly after the success of ChatGPT, has led mobile companies to invest heavily in AI technologies, with the first AI smartphones launched in late 2023 [2] - Companies like vivo and OPPO are prioritizing edge models, with vivo introducing a 3B (30 billion parameters) edge multimodal inference model, moving away from large cloud models [3][5] Group 2: User-Centric AI - Edge models are designed to create personalized data models based on user data, ensuring privacy and efficiency, which is crucial for personalized intelligence [4][10] - The integration of AI into user habits is emphasized, with companies like vivo implementing seamless AI features that operate without user intervention [6][7] Group 3: Ecosystem Transformation - The shift towards edge computing will redefine the mobile ecosystem, with companies aiming to control user data and flow to third-party applications [7][8] - Huawei has established an AI collaboration ecosystem through its HarmonyOS, while other companies like OPPO and Honor are also developing their own AI ecosystems [8] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The transition to edge AI faces challenges, including compatibility between cloud and mobile architectures, as well as the need for sufficient device power and memory [9][10] - The core value of edge AI lies in its ability to access private user data, which is a significant differentiator from traditional apps [10][11]

Commercial Aerospace - Xinghe Power successfully completed the test of the Zhishen-1 reusable liquid rocket's first stage power system, marking a significant step towards its maiden flight [1] - The Zhishen-1 is designed for at least 25 reuse cycles and targets the large satellite launch market, with plans for orbital recovery tests starting in 2026 [1] - Analysts believe the commercial aerospace industry will enter a high-speed growth phase by 2025, driven by advancements in reusable technology and cost reduction [1] Foldable Screens - Apple is expected to release a foldable iPhone next year, with a starting price around 16,000 yuan, competing with Huawei's Mate X6 [2] - The foldable iPhone is projected to have a shipment volume of 8-10 million units in 2026, potentially increasing to 25 million units by 2027 [2] - The supply chain for the foldable iPhone is in a critical validation phase, with significant focus on hinge and ultra-thin glass technologies [2] AI in Healthcare - The National Health Commission has issued guidelines to promote and regulate the application of AI in healthcare, aiming for widespread use of intelligent decision-making tools by 2027 [3] - By 2030, the goal is to achieve full coverage of intelligent assistance in primary healthcare settings [3] - The integration of AI in healthcare is seen as a key driver for high-quality development in the health industry [4] AI Glasses - The AI glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with major tech companies accelerating their investments [4] - The global shipment of AI glasses is expected to reach 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4] - By 2030, the market for AI glasses could exceed 30 billion USD, driven by advancements in technology and expanding application scenarios [5] Stem Cells - An international research team has developed a scalable production method for human kidney organoids, which could significantly reduce waiting times for chronic disease patients [5] - This method allows for the high-precision generation of thousands of kidney organoids in a controlled environment [5] Satellite Internet - The upcoming China Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Conference will focus on the development of the Beidou navigation application industry, which is expected to see significant growth [6] - The demand for core components and terminal devices in the satellite navigation industry is anticipated to increase, driven by advancements in technology and policy support [6] Innovative Drugs - The National Medical Insurance Administration is negotiating the pricing of innovative drugs for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, with 120 companies participating [7] - The global innovative drug market is projected to reach 1.1 trillion USD in 2024, with significant growth expected by 2030 [7] - The diversification of profit models is likely to enhance the profitability of innovative drug companies [7] Consumer Electronics - Nintendo has raised its sales forecast for the Switch 2 to 19 million units by March next year, reflecting strong demand [8] - The consumer electronics industry is expected to evolve towards smart, ecological, and sustainable development, with AI becoming a core driver [8] - The global tablet shipment reached 39.035 million units in the second quarter of 2025, marking a 9.3% year-on-year growth [8]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Nasdaq futures falling by 1.32%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.98%, and Dow futures decreasing by 0.57% [1] - Major European indices also declined, with Germany's DAX down by 1.28%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.52%, France's CAC down by 1.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.07% [2] Corporate Developments - Morgan Stanley's CEO indicated that global stock markets may face a correction, potentially dropping by 10% to 15% [4] - Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, signed a $38 billion deal with OpenAI for computing power [5] - Norway's sovereign wealth fund decided to reject Tesla CEO Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan [6] - Apple tightened its distribution channels in China, prohibiting offline dealers from selling products online to maintain pricing integrity [7] - Apple is collaborating with Google to develop a customized Gemini model for Siri [8] - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short" figure, revealed that 80% of his positions are short on Palantir and Nvidia [9] Company Performance - Palantir reported a 63% year-over-year increase in Q3 revenue, reaching $1.18 billion, and raised its full-year revenue forecast [10] - Starbucks' China business has been acquired by Boyu Capital, which will establish a joint venture [11] - Alibaba responded to the renaming of Ele.me to Taobao Flash Sale, stating it is merely a name change with no impact on consumer rights or data privacy policies [12] - The AI large model real-time investment competition "Alpha Arena" concluded, with Alibaba's Qwen winning [13] - Cisco launched a new product, Unified Edge, to capture opportunities in edge AI [14] - Uber's Q3 revenue reached $13.47 billion, with total bookings of $49.74 billion, both exceeding expectations [15] - Pfizer's Q3 revenue decreased by 6% year-over-year to $16.65 billion but still surpassed expectations, and the company raised its full-year profit forecast [16] - BP's Q3 adjusted net profit was $2.2 billion, exceeding expectations, and the company maintained its quarterly stock buyback plan [17] - Ferrari's Q3 revenue was €1.77 billion, with EBIT of €503 million, both exceeding expectations [18] - Nokia decided to apply for the delisting of its shares from the Euronext Paris exchange [19] - Nintendo's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, and the company raised its forecast for Switch 2 sales to 19 million units for the fiscal year [20]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities projects Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 and 2026 to reach 473.9 billion and 606.6 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30% and 28% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 43.3 billion and 54.4 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting year-on-year increases of 59% and 25% [1] - The target price is set at 58.8 HKD, with a "Buy" rating, indicating a favorable valuation for Xiaomi [1] Revenue and Profit Projections - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue is anticipated to reach 110.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 is expected to exceed 10.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] Automotive Business Insights - The automotive segment is projected to achieve profitability in Q3, with a delivery volume of 109,000 units and an average selling price (ASP) showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The gross margin for the automotive sector is expected to slightly decrease to over 25% due to a lower proportion of higher-end models [2] - The delivery volume in September surpassed 40,000 units, with expectations for continued growth in October [2] Smartphone Market Performance - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipment for Q3 2025 is estimated at approximately 43.5 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and maintaining a global market share of 13.5% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to decline slightly quarter-on-quarter, influenced by changes in product mix [1] - The high-end strategy is progressing, with the 17 series expected to outperform the 15 series in terms of lifecycle sales, and a significant increase in the proportion of Pro and ProMax models [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities forecasts Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 and 2026 to reach 473.9 billion and 606.6 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30% and 28% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 43.3 billion and 54.4 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth of 59% and 25% [1] - The target price is set at 58.8 HKD, with a "Buy" rating, indicating a favorable valuation for Xiaomi [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Xiaomi's revenue for Q3 is projected to reach 110.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 is expected to exceed 10.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] - The automotive segment is anticipated to achieve profitability in Q3, with a delivery volume of 109,000 units [2] Smartphone Segment Analysis - The global smartphone shipment for Xiaomi in Q3 2025 is estimated at approximately 43.5 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1] - Xiaomi's global market share remains stable at 13.5% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to decline slightly due to changes in product mix, while the gross margin is projected to decrease to 11% [1] IOT and Internet Business - The IOT segment is expected to see a revenue growth of 5% year-on-year, despite high base effects and increased competition [2] - The internet business continues to show steady growth, maintaining strong gross margins [2] Automotive Business Outlook - The automotive segment is projected to see significant capacity improvements in the coming year, with a focus on new models and international expansion [2] - The ASP for vehicles is expected to increase due to higher deliveries of the YU7 model, although the gross margin may slightly decline to over 25% [2] - The delivery volume in September surpassed 40,000 units, with expectations for continued growth in October [2]