今日早参 2026 年 2 月 24 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国高院驳回"特朗普关税"后的波折与推演 继美国国际贸易法院与联邦巡回上诉法院先后裁定"特朗普关税"违法后 （参见《法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？》，2025/5/30），当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日（周五），美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"违法。如我们此前 预测，最高法院判决后，特朗普政府当日提出替代性关税政策，表示将依据 美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条在常规关税基础上对全球商品加征 10%的 关税，并很快次日在社交媒体 Truth Social 上表示将对部分国家关税上调至 15%，但未公布具体国家列表（参见《最高法院挑战"特朗普关税"后续如 何？》，2025/11/12）。然而，我们认为特朗普关税风波并不会由此平息，不 仅后续关税政策仍有变数，围绕已征收的大量关税返还的机制和体量也仍悬 而未决。IEEPA 关税被驳回彰显了美国"三权分立"体 ...

Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list to safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations related to non-proliferation [1][2] - Exporters are prohibited from exporting dual-use items to these entities, and any ongoing related activities must be halted immediately [1] - In special circumstances where export is necessary, exporters must apply to the Ministry of Commerce [1] Export Control Measures - Exporters are not allowed to apply for general licenses or obtain export certificates through registration for the entities on the control list [2] - When applying for individual licenses, exporters must submit a risk assessment report and a written commitment that the dual-use items will not be used to enhance Japan's military capabilities [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will conduct stricter end-user and end-use reviews for exports to entities on the control list, particularly concerning military users and purposes [2] Entities Listed - The 20 entities include major companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Shipbuilding Co., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Aero Engines, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Aerospace Systems [3] - A separate list of 20 entities has been created as a "watch list," including Subaru Corporation and Fujitsu Defense & National Security [4]

Market Performance - On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, the three major indices in A-shares opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15% to 4129.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.52% to 14313.86 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.7% to 3331.79 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 30.315 billion yuan, with nearly 5000 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The gold and oil sectors led the gains, while stocks related to robotics, energy metals, CPO, ultra-high voltage, consumer electronics, and semiconductors were active [1] - Conversely, sectors such as duty-free shops, short drama games, and seed dance themes showed weakness [1] International Market Overview - U.S. stock indices closed down over 1%, with the Dow Jones falling by 821 points (1.66%), the Nasdaq down by 1.13%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.04% [2] - Major tech stocks faced pressure, with Microsoft dropping over 3%, Tesla and META nearly 3%, and Amazon down over 2% [2] - In Europe, most major indices also declined, with the Eurostoxx 50 down by 0.24% and the DAX 30 down by 1.01% [2] Economic Policies and Developments - An article by Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the construction of a strong domestic market, with plans to boost consumption and investment [3] - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the government's imposition of certain tariffs, which China opposes, urging the U.S. to eliminate unilateral tariff measures [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for the liquor industry, aiming to cultivate multiple billion-yuan production areas by 2028 [4] Technology and Innovation - SK Hynix indicated that the storage market has entered a seller's market, driven by real demand from AI and limited cleanroom space, predicting continued price increases for storage products [5] - Chinese scientists achieved a breakthrough in optical communication and 6G technology, creating a new integrated communication system that sets a record for data transmission rates [5] Investment Outlook - Industrial trends, policy expectations, and improved liquidity are expected to drive the A-share market upward after the holiday, with a focus on technology growth sectors [6][8][10] - The market is anticipated to see a return of the technology growth style, supported by easing concerns over AI and positive developments in robotics and large models [10] - The rebalancing of market styles is shifting from a focus solely on AI to a broader range of physical sectors, with an emphasis on commodities and manufacturing recovery [11]

Group 1 - German Chancellor Merz is scheduled to visit China from February 25 to 26, marking a significant diplomatic engagement amid changing international dynamics [1][3] - The visit includes participation in the Sino-German Economic Advisory Committee meeting and meetings with Chinese leaders, as well as visits to cultural and industrial sites [1][3] - Merz will lead a large business delegation of approximately 30 senior representatives from major companies such as Bayer, Volkswagen, Siemens, Adidas, and Mercedes-Benz [1][3] Group 2 - The German Chamber of Commerce has called for enhanced cooperation with China, highlighting its predictability compared to the U.S. amid uncertainties in U.S.-China relations [2][4] - Key areas for potential collaboration include environmental technology, recycling, medical technology, and circular economy [2][4] - Merz's visit is characterized by careful preparation, with pressures from the Foreign Ministry for a tougher stance on China, while the Economic Minister advises caution [5]

马年A股首个交易日，三大指数集体高开，沪指涨1.15%，报4129.13点，深成指涨1.52%，报14313.86 点，创业板指涨1.7%，报3331.79点，科创50指数涨1.57%，报1493.45点。沪深两市合计成交额303.15亿 元，全市场近5000只个股上涨。 纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨2.38%，报5229.70美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货涨3.31%，报5248.90美元/盎司。 现货白银涨3.99%，报88.0245美元/盎司，北京时间04:52曾达到89.0460美元。COMEX白银期货涨 7.26%，报89.000美元/盎司，04:52曾达到89.500美元。 【重要资讯】 1、2月16日出版的第4期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文 章《当前经济工作的重点任务》。文章强调，2026年经济工作头绪多，要抓住关键、纲举目张。坚持内 需主导，建设强大国内市场。统筹促消费和扩投资，用好我国超大规模市场优势。深入实施提振消费专 项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，扩大优质商品和服务供给，优化"两新"政策实施，清理消费领域 不合理限制措施，释放文旅等服务消费潜力。 2、 ...

新年启新程，万事尽可期。 借着马年的东风，奔赴下一场山海。 致每一位奋斗的汽车人： 愿你握稳方向盘，跑出中国汽车的加速度。 我们精心整理了2026年汽车圈专属日历。 | 二月 | | 星期日 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 | | | 星期五 【星期六 | February | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2 | 3 4 | | 5 | 6 | 7 | | 甲 | 十五 | 十六 / 立春 | | +八 | 十九 | =+ | | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | | 甘一 | 甘二 | 廿三 | 日 | 甘五 | 甘六 | 情人节 | | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | | 廿八 | 除タ | 春节 | 雨水 | 初三 | 初四 | 初五 | | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | | 初六 | 初七 | 初八 | 初九 | 初十 | キー | 十二 | ●2月6日 一汽一大公成立35周年 ●2月6日-22日 第二十五届冬季奥运会 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The first job fair of the "Welcoming the New Year, Ten Thousand Jobs Entering Ten Thousand Homes" initiative in Henan Province will take place on February 25, 2026, aimed at addressing employment needs for various groups, particularly youth and high-level talents [1] Group 1: Event Details - The job fair will be held at the Zhihui City first-floor hall [1] - It is organized by the Jinshui District Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, the Dongfeng Road Street Office, and Henan 123 Talent Network [1] Group 2: Target Audience - The recruitment targets include young talents, high-level talents, recent graduates, unemployed youth, job-seeking youth transitioning careers, and skilled young talents [1] Group 3: Participating Industries - Key participating industries include finance, biochemistry, environmental technology, education and training, mechanical manufacturing, precision electronics, smart digitalization, tourism, cultural media, law, hospitality, automotive, logistics, healthcare, agriculture, construction materials, and food [1] Group 4: Job Opportunities - The job fair will offer over 11,800 positions across various professional categories [1] - Job positions will focus on software development, management trainees, new media operations, e-commerce, foreign trade, technical research and development, project management, administration, design, finance, engineering, broadcasting, law, marketing, and internships [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on resuming production and improving its financial situation, with recent developments indicating a cautious market outlook regarding its restructuring efforts [1][4]. Group 1: Production Resumption and Financial Improvement - The company confirmed on February 13, 2026, that it is actively working to resume production in its vehicle segment and has initiated recruitment to restart operations [1]. - In January 2026, the company secured a loan of 400 million yuan from Zhejiang Yongkang Rural Commercial Bank, with the first tranche of 343 million yuan received to repay historical debts and support production resumption [1]. - The company is still in the process of disposing of assets from its bankrupt entities, with some stocks remaining unsold as of early February, reflecting market caution regarding its restructuring prospects [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown volatility, closing at 3.03 yuan on February 13, 2026, with a slight increase of 0.66% on that day, but a cumulative decline of 0.98% over the past five trading days [2]. - The stock's trading range has been between the lower Bollinger Band (2.86 yuan) and the upper band (3.57 yuan), with a recent net outflow of main funds, indicating weaker performance compared to the automotive sector and the broader market [2]. Group 3: Financial Forecast - The company released a preliminary earnings forecast on January 28, 2026, estimating a net loss of 281 million to 417 million yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year reduction in losses of 58.32% to 71.91% [3]. - Projected revenue for 2025 is expected to be between 454 million and 680 million yuan, with the net asset value remaining positive at the end of the period [3]. - The narrowing of losses is attributed to the suspension of vehicle operations due to historical issues, although fixed costs continue to persist [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - No formal research reports have been published by brokerage firms regarding the company recently [4]. - Some media analyses suggest that the company still faces challenges related to funding shortages, with a reported debt-to-asset ratio of 99.41% as of Q3 2025, although the approval of loans and debt resolution may provide short-term operational support [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of intelligent driving concept stocks, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Zhejiang Shibao, Nexperia, Joyson Electronics, and Minth Group [1] - On February 18, Tesla announced the rollout of its first Cybercab at the Texas Gigafactory, marking a significant step towards the practical implementation of Robotaxi services [1] - According to a report from Dongfang Securities, the completion of the physical vehicle signifies a high certainty of subsequent mass production and ramp-up of the Cybercab, which is expected to follow an S-curve growth pattern [1] Group 2 - Tesla's long-term production goal for the Cybercab is projected to exceed the total production of all its other models combined, indicating substantial growth potential for the company [1] - Companies in the automotive supply chain that become part of the Cybercab ecosystem are anticipated to experience ongoing incremental opportunities for supply [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing tension between the US and Iran, with potential implications for global markets and trade policies [5] - It notes a significant decline in the US GDP growth rate, which may impact investment strategies moving forward [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and technological advancements as key drivers for China's economic growth in 2026 [7] Industry Analysis Electronics - The demand for AI computing power is expected to continue growing due to the frequent updates of large models both domestically and internationally [36] - Major semiconductor companies are experiencing price increases due to heightened demand for AI-related products, with significant investments being made in production capacity [38][39] - Recommended stocks include Jiangfeng Electronics and other beneficiaries of the AI computing power expansion [40] Robotics - The report indicates that humanoid robots are entering a new strategic development phase, with significant government support and market interest following their prominent display during the Spring Festival [44] - The commercialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, with companies showcasing advanced capabilities beyond mere performance [45] - Key investment directions include core component suppliers and companies with strong AI algorithm capabilities [46] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the liquor market, where high-end brands are outperforming [51] - The report suggests that consumer demand is being driven by longer stocking cycles and an increase in holiday consumption scenarios [52] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer spending [53] Non-Bank Financials - The report identifies a significant opportunity in the non-bank financial sector due to the migration of household deposits, which is expected to enhance the performance of insurance and brokerage firms [54] - The anticipated slow bull market is likely to attract more investment into these sectors, benefiting from increased market participation [55]