盈利预测与投资评级：公司短期受舆论事件冲击，下调公司25-26 年收入预期为32/35 亿元（此前25-26 年预期36/39 亿元），新增27 年收入预期38 亿元，同比+5%/+7%/+9%；考虑到公司成本红利显著，调 整25-26 年归母净利润预期为5.9/6.3 亿元（此前25-26 年预期为5.8/6.5 亿元），并新增27 年预期为6.8 亿 元，同比+14%/+7%/+9%，对应25-27 年PE 分别为21/19/18x，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨、行业竞争加剧、消费复苏不及预期，食品安全问题 24Q4/25Q1 公司管理费用率分别同比-3.2pct/持平，24Q4 管理费用率下降主因公司冲回股权激励费用。 综合来看24Q4/25Q1 公司归母净利率分别同比+4.3/+2pct，盈利能力强化。 注重股东回报，积极应对舆情。2024 年公司分红率达到99%，2025 年4 月15 日股价对应股息率4.4%， 股东回报优异。2025 年3 月公司针对零添加产品被媒体送检事件发布澄清公告，明确公司零添加产品符 合企业标示的酿造酱油国家标准，且绝不添加食品添加剂。未来随着公司积极 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.20 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments in 2024, which has led to revenue pressure but is expected to enhance profitability in the long term. The net profit margin has significantly improved due to cost benefits and product structure optimization [4][3]. - The company has focused on high-quality growth, with expectations for continued recovery in operations following strategic adjustments made in 2024 [4][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items are projected to be 3.07 billion, 514.15 million, and 500 million RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.2%, 3.1%, and 5.1% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 790 million RMB, with a net profit of 160 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decline in revenue of 10.3% but an increase in net profit of 13.4% [1]. Cost Structure and Margin Improvement - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 37.2%, with a significant improvement in Q4 due to lower raw material costs and product structure optimization [3]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 is expected to reach 20.7%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q1 2025 is projected to be 19.3%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][1]. Strategic Adjustments and Market Performance - The company has strategically reduced the number of low-margin products and focused on optimizing its product offerings, which has led to short-term revenue pressure but is expected to enhance long-term profitability [2][4]. - In 2024, revenue from soy sauce and vinegar is projected to be 1.96 billion and 370 million RMB, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 3.8% and 12.5% [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are forecasted to be 0.60 and 0.67 RMB, respectively, with an upward revision of 5% and 6% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 99.9% in 2024, providing substantial returns to shareholders [2].

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses the annual report of Zhongjing Food, which has shown growth despite challenges in the financial sector. The company reported a revenue of 1.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 175 million yuan, up 1.81% from the previous year [2][4]. Key Products and Performance - Zhongjing Food focuses on three major product lines: mushroom sauce, Shanghai scallion oil, and spice extracts, which together account for 66% of the company's main business revenue [4][2]. - The mushroom sauce generated approximately 330 million yuan in revenue, while Shanghai scallion oil saw a 35% year-on-year growth, reaching 200 million yuan [4][2]. - The company launched a second-generation mushroom sauce with a 20% reduction in oil and no preservatives, aligning with consumer health trends [3][2]. Sales Channels and Strategies - The company emphasizes a multi-channel sales strategy, focusing on both B2B and B2C markets, with a total sales revenue of 625 million yuan for seasoning products, a 12% increase year-on-year [5][2]. - E-commerce sales grew nearly 30%, contributing 240 million yuan to total revenue, while offline sales strategies include enhancing in-store experiences and promotions [5][6]. - The company plans to continue expanding its e-commerce presence and improve operational capabilities in this channel [6][20]. Brand Development and Marketing - Zhongjing Food has unified its brand visuals and enhanced brand recognition through various marketing strategies, including legal actions against infringement [7][2]. - The company aims to maintain a focus on flavor and health in its marketing and product development strategies [9][36]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The company anticipates a stable growth trajectory, aiming for a revenue increase of around 30% in 2025, with a focus on product innovation and market expansion [30][22]. - Challenges include rising raw material costs, particularly for scallions and mushrooms, which have seen price increases of over 9% year-on-year [15][23]. - The company is also exploring new product lines in the health sector, such as the "Zhongjing Vitality Ginseng," targeting health-conscious consumers [10][29]. Financial Performance and Dividends - Zhongjing Food plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per share for the 2024 fiscal year, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [9][2]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy since its IPO, with cumulative dividends amounting to 446 million yuan [9][2]. Industry Insights - The seasoning industry is experiencing increased competition, with a focus on product quality and unique offerings becoming essential for survival [27][28]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards healthier and more transparent products, which will influence future product development strategies [27][36]. Conclusion - Zhongjing Food is positioned for growth through strategic product innovation, multi-channel sales, and a strong focus on brand development. The company is aware of the challenges in the market and is adapting its strategies accordingly to ensure long-term sustainability and profitability [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the white wine sector as it is expected to clear and stabilize, with gradual improvements in the mass market [1]. Core Insights - The white wine sector is currently in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvement in the second half of the year. The industry has seen risks transition from off-balance sheet channels to on-balance sheet for most listed companies, leading to a slight slowdown in payment and delivery progress in Q1. However, leading companies have largely completed their initial targets for the year [4][9]. - In the mass market, beer shows signs of marginal improvement, with standout performance in the snack category, particularly for konjac products. The dairy sector is expected to rebound in Q2 after a period of adjustment [19][25]. Summary by Sections White Wine Sector - The white wine sector is in a clearing and bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year. Q1 saw a slowdown in payment and delivery, but leading companies have met their initial targets [4][9]. - High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 9% and 10%, and 4% and 3% respectively in Q1 [10][12]. - The mid-range segment is experiencing varied performance, with brands like Fenjiu and Gujing showing growth, while others like Yanghe are facing challenges [10][12]. Mass Market - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading brands like Qingdao and Yanjing achieving revenue growth of 4% and 6% respectively in Q1 [26][29]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, is performing well, with brands like Salted and Wei Long seeing significant growth [19][25]. - The dairy sector is expected to improve as inventory levels stabilize, with companies like Yili and Mengniu showing resilience [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests bottom-fishing in the white wine sector, with a focus on brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, while also recommending attention to the mass market for potential turning points in beer and dairy [5][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongju Gaoxin, is focusing on its core brand, Chubang, and aims to achieve significant growth through both internal transformation and external acquisitions in the competitive seasoning industry. Group 1: Company Overview and Achievements - The company has undergone a transformation over its 30 years of listing, achieving total revenue exceeding 5.5 billion, total assets over 8 billion, and net assets over 5.5 billion, with cumulative equity financing of 497.6 million and cash dividends of 2.414 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of 485% [3] - In 2024, the company focused on its core seasoning business and the Chubang brand, achieving significant operational cash flow and cost reduction through refined management [3] - The company has identified three core competitive advantages: a trusted national brand (Chubang), strong product innovation capabilities, and a comprehensive multi-channel marketing network [3] Group 2: 2025 Development Goals - The company aims to complete at least one industrial acquisition to fill gaps and enhance efficiency, achieve revenue growth at least on par with industry peers, and strengthen foundational capabilities in marketing, innovation, and operations [3][4] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has made progress in marketing transformation, including customer segmentation and pricing strategies, particularly in new retail management [4][5] - The company plans to enhance channel construction, focusing on the South China market, adjusting key account channels, and developing new retail channels [11][12] Group 4: Product Development and R&D - The company is launching a 30% reduced-salt product and enhancing its flexible production lines to meet specific consumer needs [11] - R&D expenses decreased due to structural adjustments, but the company plans to strengthen collaborations with universities and experts to enhance its innovation capabilities [8] Group 5: Industry Competition and Cost Management - The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end product segment and is focused on improving pricing strategies to enhance competitiveness [10] - The company is monitoring raw material prices, particularly for non-GMO soybeans, to mitigate impacts from trade tensions [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.0% and a net profit growth of 17.8% in Q4, continuing its trend of high-quality growth [1][5] - For 2024, the company is expected to perform well despite market pressures, with a focus on channel improvement and new product promotion, leading to sustained growth [1][6] - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 1.28 and 1.40 CNY respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a PE ratio of 33 times for 2025 [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 269.01 billion CNY, a 9.53% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 63.44 billion CNY, up 12.75% [5][7] - Q4 results showed revenue of 65.02 billion CNY and net profit of 15.29 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.03% and 17.81% increase year-on-year respectively [5][7] - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.00% in 2024, up 2.26 percentage points from the previous year, driven by cost optimization and efficiency improvements [5][7] Segment Performance - Soy sauce revenue reached 137.58 billion CNY in 2024, with a volume increase of 11.63% despite a 2.5% decline in average price [5][7] - Oyster sauce revenue was 46.15 billion CNY, with an 8.56% increase year-on-year, and a slight average price increase of 0.4% [5][7] - The company’s other product categories also showed strong growth, with total revenue of 40.86 billion CNY, a 16.75% increase year-on-year [5][7] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 50.87 billion CNY for 2024, representing a significant payout ratio of 80.19% [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongju Gaoxin (600872.SH), known for its "Chubang" soy sauce brand, is facing challenges with a significant drop in net profit while attempting to revitalize its brand and achieve ambitious revenue goals through strategic changes and potential acquisitions [1][3][8]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Zhongju Gaoxin reported a revenue of 5.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.39%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 47.37% to 893 million yuan [3][4]. - The company's core subsidiary, Meiwai Xian, achieved a revenue of 5.075 billion yuan, accounting for 91.95% of the total revenue, with a net profit increase of 29.48% to 775 million yuan [1][3]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to legal settlements and the reversal of provisions made in the previous year, while the adjusted net profit (扣非净利润) grew by 27.97% to 671 million yuan due to cost-cutting measures [3][4]. Market Position and Challenges - Meiwai Xian's revenue growth has been inconsistent over the past five years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.5% for revenue and -4.67% for net profit [4][5]. - The soy sauce segment, which constitutes about two-thirds of Meiwai Xian's revenue, has shown declining growth rates, indicating a potential issue of "selling more but earning less" [5][6]. - Zhongju Gaoxin's market share in the Chinese soy sauce market is only 3.02%, significantly lower than competitors like Haitian Flavoring and Food, which holds nearly 13% [5][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to "recreate a new Chubang" with a three-year strategic goal to achieve 10 billion yuan in revenue and 1.5 billion yuan in operating profit by 2026 [6][8]. - Zhongju Gaoxin is divesting from non-core businesses, such as real estate and mechanical parts, to focus on its main business of health food products [6][7]. - The company is also exploring acquisitions to expand its market presence, particularly in the vinegar sector, with potential targets identified [8]. Shareholder Dynamics - The influence of the "Baoneng system" has diminished, with its shareholding dropping below 5%, leading to a more stable governance structure for Zhongju Gaoxin [7][8]. - Recent shareholder changes include a reduction in holdings by three of the top ten shareholders, indicating a shift in the ownership landscape [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.519 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 893 million yuan, a decrease of 47.37% due to the reversal of estimated liabilities from the industrial joint case [7] - The company is expected to see a slight increase in profit forecasts for 2025, with net profits projected at 980 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [7] - The new leadership team is expected to bring positive changes, including organizational reforms and brand marketing efforts, which are anticipated to enhance operational capabilities and growth potential [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 5.139 billion (2023), 5.519 billion (2024), 5.812 billion (2025E), 6.116 billion (2026E), and 6.430 billion (2027E) [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.697 billion (2023), 893 million (2024), 980 million (2025E), 1.059 billion (2026E), and 1.132 billion (2027E) [8] - The gross profit margin for the company's seasoning products improved to 37.32% in 2024, an increase of 5.13 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the company's main product lines in 2024 was as follows: soy sauce (2.982 billion), chicken essence (674 million), cooking oil (567 million), and other foods (631 million) [7] - The company achieved a significant increase in cooking oil sales, with a year-on-year growth of 27.03% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on improving its brand reputation and product strength in the seasoning market, with expectations for continued internal operational improvements and growth opportunities [7] - The company plans to enhance marketing efforts, including hiring a celebrity spokesperson to boost brand visibility [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2024, the total demand in the food and beverage industry is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in social retail consumption, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3][12] - The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will see steady progress in 2025, supported by three main factors: increased consumer subsidies, potential valuation recovery, and accelerated industry innovation [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a more resilient market outlook [3][36] Group 2 - The report identifies that the performance of the food and beverage sector has been mixed, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending remains volatile [12][30] - It notes that the liquor segment may see a strategic shift, with a focus on demand cultivation as the key to future growth [4][31] - The report suggests that the condiment sector could benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry and the acceleration of chain operations, leading to increased market concentration [4][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dairy sector is poised for growth driven by strong domestic demand and a focus on product upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements and demand expansion [4][31] - It highlights that the snack food market remains fragmented, with supply chain advantages becoming more pronounced, and emphasizes the importance of revenue growth following scale expansion [4][31] - The beer segment is noted for its stable production but faces pressure on sales volume and pricing, with a focus on innovation and structural upgrades [4][31] Group 4 - The report discusses the overall market performance, indicating that the food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 8% in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the industry [23][30] - It mentions that the food and beverage sector's revenue growth has been primarily driven by supply-side optimization, with demand remaining weak [30][31] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing double-digit growth, while liquor and processed foods faced declines [30][31]

五粮液：五粮液计划6个月内增持5-10亿元。集团公司计划自公告之日起6个月内通过深圳证券交易所交 易系统增持公司股票，拟增持金额不低于5亿元，不超过10亿元。截至公告日，五粮液集团公司持有公 司股份7.95亿股，占公司总股本的20.49%。在本次公告前的12个月内，五粮液集团公司累计增持公司股 份340.67万股，占公司总股本的0.09%，增持金额为人民币5亿元。 投资建议 招商证券发布研报称，本周受贸易摩擦影响板块震荡。从Q1情况来看，高端白酒需求相对稳定，次高 端酒企表现分化，整体边际改善。食品板块需求企稳，调味品、乳制品、啤酒等板块轻装上阵全年业绩 改善确定性更高，而零食、饮料赛道仍然延续高景气。当前茅台、五粮液（000858）纷纷出台回购方 案，龙头底线价值清晰，白酒位置进可攻退可守，食品把握趋势向上及高景气赛道。内需有望发力背景 下，该行重申板块配置价值。 招商证券主要观点如下： 核心公司跟踪：重啤维持高位分红，中炬全年稳健收官 重庆啤酒（600132）：分红维持高位，结构表现依旧承压。公司24年高档酒结构表现仍然承压，带动吨 价同比下滑，税收政策及诉讼费用影响盈利，收入/归母净利润同比-1.2%/ ...