Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing at 4102.20, up by 0.85% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% to 3311.51 [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 633 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (up 7.58%), building materials (up 3.48%), and real estate (up 2.97%) [3][4] - Conversely, sectors such as media (-3.12%), telecommunications (-2.73%), and computing (-1.70%) underperformed [3][4] - Concept indices showed strong performance in coal, TOPCON batteries, and BC batteries, while concepts like Kuaishou and cloud gaming lagged behind [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to stabilize with a focus on consumption policies and infrastructure development [6] - Short-term volatility is anticipated due to profit-taking pressures after a rapid rise in stock prices over the past two months [6] - Long-term, the market is expected to transition from a valuation-driven rally to one driven by earnings, with a focus on strategic resource products and technology growth [6] News Highlights - The central government's No. 1 document emphasizes the integration of AI with agriculture and the development of new agricultural production capabilities [5] - The People's Bank of China announced an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [5] - In January 2026, A-share new accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 213% increase year-on-year [5]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

2月4日，A股市场整体涨跌互现。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4102.2点，上涨0.85%，深证成指收报14156.27点，上涨0.21%，创业板 指数收报3311.51点，下跌0.4%，北证50指数下跌0.71%。 1. A股市场全天主力资金净流出591.69亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出303.66亿元，尾盘净流入2.5亿元，全天净流出591.69亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | | 2026-2-4 | -591.69 | -303.66 | 2. 50 | -326. 41 | | 2026-2-3 | 16. 49 | 50. 22 | 20. 19 | 105. 03 | | 2026-2-2 | -539.77 | -143. 20 | -157. 11 | -384. 36 | | 2026-1-30 | -595.71 | -279.84 | -50. 70 | -303.01 | | 2026-1-29 | ...

华创证券指出，若2026年宏观状态呈现通胀回升、国债收益率先降后升、企业利润前景改善，则红利板 块中的周期（煤炭/石化/钢铁）及制造（家电/汽车/机械）大类预计占优。当前电解铝行业总体进入现 金流持续修复、盈利稳定性增强及分红比例逐步提升阶段，尽管近期进入传统淡季库存有所累积，但基 本面总体平稳，且长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变。在国内供给强约束、海外新增项目释放缓慢 的背景下，电力等问题对存量产能稳定运行的扰动正在增加，预计26-27年全球电解铝供给维持低增 速，供需或维持紧平衡，铝价有望受强支撑。 2月4日，大盘震荡，红利价值凸显，红利国企ETF国泰（510720）大涨超4%。 红利国企ETF国泰（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从市场中筛选具备高分红能力 与稳定分红记录的优质企业，覆盖银行、煤炭、交通运输等行业，重点聚焦传统高股息领域。指数通过 严格考察成分股的股息率和分红持续性，并采用跨行业分散配置策略，以有效控制投资风险，反映高股 息企业的整体市场表现。根据基金公告，红利国企ETF国泰可月月评估分红，在上市后的每个月都做到 了分红，已连续分红22个月。 注：分红情况具体 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to close at 4102.20 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21% to 14156.27 points. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.20% to 1453.48 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.40% to 3311.51 points. Overall, 3252 stocks rose, 2126 fell, and 94 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 2481 billion yuan, down by 632 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][12]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, coal, building materials, real estate, transportation, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, with increases of 7.58%, 3.48%, 2.97%, 2.82%, and 2.33% respectively. Conversely, the media, communication, computer, and electronics sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 3.12%, 2.73%, 1.70%, and 1.55% respectively [1][12]. Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors today included central enterprise coal, selected coal mining, photovoltaic glass, selected air transportation, BC batteries, silicon energy, selected power equipment, photovoltaic rooftops, selected real estate, new energy, TOPcon batteries, photovoltaic, energy overseas, HJT batteries, and perovskite batteries [2][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that sectors with dividend attractiveness during the low cycle are worth attention, as the macroeconomic environment is currently at a turning point with PPI on a downward trend and industry profitability at a low point poised for recovery [1] - In the context of anti-involution and policy changes, sectors with supply clearance and profit elasticity are highlighted, focusing on those with enhanced dividend attractiveness [1] - The Guotai Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the State-Owned Dividend Index (000151), which selects high-dividend and stable dividend-paying companies across industries such as banking, coal, and transportation, emphasizing traditional high-dividend sectors [1] Group 2 - The index employs strict assessments of constituent stocks' dividend yield and sustainability, utilizing a cross-industry diversification strategy to effectively control investment risks and reflect the overall market performance of high-dividend companies [1] - According to the fund announcement, the Guotai Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF has consistently evaluated dividends monthly since its listing, achieving continuous dividends for 22 months [1]

通知指出，春节前后各类生产经营单位有的抢产量、赶工期，有的停产停工，有的复工复产集中，春运 期间交通运输高位运行，人员密集场所安全风险聚集，冬季低温雨雪冰冻等恶劣天气多发频发，各类风 险隐患交织叠加，安全生产须臾不可放松。 通知要求，要突出问题导向加强火灾隐患排查整治。针对老年人集中居住等场所强化消防安全隐患排查 整治，定期组织开展消防应急演练，坚决防范遏制火灾事故发生；持续深入推进高层建筑、"下店上 宅"以及"三合一""多合一"等经营性自建房重大火灾风险隐患排查整治。 通知强调，要聚焦重点强化烟花爆竹和危险化学品安全防范。采取针对性措施加强生产、经营、运输、 寄递、燃放等全链条安全监管；进一步加大超标违禁产品排查整治力度，严肃查处将礼花弹等专业燃放 类产品销售给个人、生产经营超标违禁产品、将专业燃放类标称为个人燃放类产品等违法违规行为。 （来源：廊坊日报） 转自：廊坊日报 新华社北京2月3日电（记者 黄韬铭）记者3日从应急管理部获悉，国务院安委会办公室当日印发紧急通 知，部署各地区、各有关部门和中央企业切实做好春节前后安全生产工作，强化重大风险防控，坚决防 范遏制群死群伤特别是重特大生产安全事故。 通知要求 ...

资金面则显示了明显的"避险"和"求稳"倾向。央行今日加量投放流动性，缓解了资金面担忧，但新入市 的资金以及部分存量资金，在近期全球科技股波动加剧的背景下，选择了流向股息率高、业绩稳定、且 受益于政策托底的板块。煤炭正是这类资产的典型代表。这种从成长向价值的仓位腾挪，是造成板块 间"跷跷板"效应的直接推手。 外部市场的传导效应也不容忽视。港股恒生科技指数今日再度大跌2.29%，其中软件与半导体板块跌幅 尤甚。这既受到全球范围内对AI技术颠覆传统商业模式担忧情绪的影响，也反映出国际资金对部分高 估值科技领域的重新定价。A股与港股在科技股上的联动性日益增强，这种负面情绪很自然地传导至A 股的TMT板块。 重点谈谈领涨的煤炭板块。它的崛起并非简单的超跌反弹。在"能源安全"的战略框架下，煤炭行业的定 位正在发生微妙变化，从单纯的"传统能源"向"稳定器"和"现代化产业基础"转变。这带来了估值体系重 塑的潜在可能。叠加其自身低估值、高现金流的财务特征，在不确定性上升的市场中，它自然成为了防 御性配置的优选。今日的暴涨，是市场对这份"确定性"给予的溢价。 展望未来，这种分化的态势可能不会迅速结束。市场将从普涨普跌的"贝塔行情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the bond - issuing entities within key supported industries under the "15th Five - Year Plan". It combines bond performance and fundamental performance of these entities, using a qualitative + quantitative approach to build an objective and quantitative evaluation standard. The top 25% of entities in each industry in terms of comprehensive performance are selected as recommended investment targets for investors [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 New Pillar Industries - **Bond Performance**: As of January 5, 2026, 30 bond - issuing entities with relatively superior comprehensive performance have most of their outstanding bond balances at 2 billion yuan or more. Their latest credit ratings are mainly AAA and AA +. They are mainly located in Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, etc. Most of the latest bond - issuing costs are in the range of 2.28% - 2.54%, and the latest bond yields to maturity are in the range of 2.25% - 2.51%. Current institutional holdings are mainly from banks and public funds [9]. - **Fundamental Performance**: The interest coverage ratio of these 30 entities is mostly between 1.35 - 3.81 times, the cash - to - due - debt ratio is mostly between 11.91 - 65.02, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio is mostly between 0.31 - 1.07, and the tangible net - worth debt ratio is mostly between 145.50% - 498.97%. The total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of most entities in Q1 - Q3 of 2025 have year - on - year growth rates in the ranges of - 10.12% - 0.29% and - 21.00% - 22.11% respectively [10]. - **Recommended Entities**: Water Development Group Co., Ltd., Anhui Energy Group Co., Ltd., Zhoushan Transportation Investment Group Co., Ltd., Sichuan Hydropower Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd., Anhui Wanneng Co., Ltd., Gansu Electric Power Investment Energy Development Co., Ltd., and GEM Co., Ltd. [11][12] 3.2 Future Industries - **Bond Performance**: 20 bond - issuing entities with relatively superior comprehensive performance have most of their outstanding bond balances at 2 billion yuan or more. Their latest credit ratings are mainly AAA and AA +. They are mainly located in Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, etc. Most of the latest bond - issuing costs are in the range of 1.94% - 2.70%, and the latest bond yields to maturity are in the range of 1.98% - 2.56%. Current institutional holdings are mainly from banks [17]. - **Fundamental Performance**: The interest coverage ratio of these 20 entities is mostly between 1.05 - 4.55 times, the cash - to - due - debt ratio is mostly between - 23.53 - 11.57, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio is mostly between 0.66 - 2.07, and the tangible net - worth debt ratio is mostly between 104.16% - 314.54%. The total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of most entities in Q1 - Q3 of 2025 have year - on - year growth rates in the ranges of - 2.06% - 15.63% and - 43.24% - 166.76% respectively [18]. - **Recommended Entities**: Beijing Yizhuang International Investment and Development Co., Ltd., China Electronics Corporation, BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd., China Information and Communication Technology Group Co., Ltd., Anhui Railway Development Fund Co., Ltd., North Huachuang Technology Group Co., Ltd., Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd., Sichuan Jinduo Investment Co., Ltd., Tsinghua Tongfang Co., Ltd., Tianjin Jinzhi State - owned Capital Investment and Operation Co., Ltd., China Great Wall Technology Group Co., Ltd., and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company [19] 3.3 Traditional Industry Upgrades - **Bond Performance**: 20 bond - issuing entities with relatively superior comprehensive performance have most of their outstanding bond balances at 2 billion yuan or more. Their latest credit ratings are mainly AAA and AA +. They are mainly located in Beijing, Shandong, Liaoning, etc. Most of the latest bond - issuing costs are in the range of 2.60% - 3.30%, and the latest bond yields to maturity are in the range of 2.55% - 3.31%. Current institutional holdings are mainly from banks and securities firms [22][23]. - **Fundamental Performance**: The interest coverage ratio of these 20 entities is mostly between 1.08 - 5.12 times, the cash - to - due - debt ratio is mostly between 2.11 - 20.71, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio is mostly between 0.43 - 0.96, and the tangible net - worth debt ratio is mostly between 97.85% - 437.09%. The total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of most entities in Q1 - Q3 of 2025 have year - on - year growth rates in the ranges of - 11.58% - 11.53% and - 47.89% - 29.65% respectively [23]. - **Recommended Entities**: China Metallurgical Group Corporation, Shandong Hongqiao New Material Co., Ltd., Nanshan Group Co., Ltd., Taiyuan Heavy Machinery Group Co., Ltd., Luoyang Cultural Tourism Investment Group Co., Ltd., Guangxi Liuzhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., and Huayuan Group Co., Ltd. [24] 3.4 Infrastructure Construction Industries - **Bond Performance**: 30 bond - issuing entities with relatively superior comprehensive performance have most of their outstanding bond balances at 2 billion yuan or more. Their latest credit ratings are mainly AAA and AA +. They are mainly located in Henan, Shandong, Xinjiang, etc. Most of the latest bond - issuing costs are in the range of 2.69% - 3.24%, and the latest bond yields to maturity are in the range of 2.63% - 3.00%. Current institutional holdings are mainly from banks and securities firms [28]. - **Fundamental Performance**: The interest coverage ratio of these 30 entities is mostly between 1.06 - 1.62 times, the cash - to - due - debt ratio is mostly between - 1.66 - 9.28, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio is mostly between 0.23 - 1.06, and the tangible net - worth debt ratio is mostly between 94.90% - 252.91%. The total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of most entities in Q1 - Q3 of 2025 have year - on - year growth rates in the ranges of - 16.10% - 29.44% and - 126.73% - 30.22% respectively [28]. - **Recommended Entities**: Shenyang Metro Group Co., Ltd., Shanxi Road and Bridge Construction Group Co., Ltd., Xinyang Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd., Urumqi Transportation and Tourism Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., Urumqi Urban Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd., Qingdao Ocean Investment Group Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Huafa Technology Industry Group Co., Ltd., and Rizhao Land Development Group Co., Ltd. [29][30] 3.5 Green Transformation - related Industries - **Bond Performance**: 20 bond - issuing entities with relatively superior comprehensive performance have most of their outstanding bond balances at 1 billion yuan or more. Their latest credit ratings are evenly distributed among AAA, AA +, and AA. They are mainly located in Beijing, Hubei, Zhejiang, etc. Most of the latest bond - issuing costs are in the range of 2.27% - 2.68%, and the latest bond yields to maturity are in the range of 2.19% - 2.40%. Current institutional holdings are mainly from banks and public funds [34]. - **Fundamental Performance**: The interest coverage ratio of these 20 entities is mostly between 1.21 - 2.26 times, the cash - to - due - debt ratio is mostly between 1.56 - 34.59, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio is mostly between 0.35 - 1.08, and the tangible net - worth debt ratio is mostly between 100% - 494.40%. The total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of most entities in Q1 - Q3 of 2025 have year - on - year growth rates in the ranges of - 7.02% - 6.54% and - 60.19% - 56.29% respectively [34]. - **Recommended Entities**: Beijing Urban Drainage Group Co., Ltd., Wuhan Water Group Co., Ltd., Jiangyin Public Assets Management Co., Ltd., Zhongyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., China Environmental Protection Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing Water Resources Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., Meishan State - owned Capital Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd., Nanning Jianning Water Investment Group Co., Ltd., Haining Water Investment Group Co., Ltd., Wuhan Urban Drainage Development Co., Ltd., Yulin Water Group Co., Ltd., and Bazhou Guoxin Construction and Development (Group) Co., Ltd. [35] 3.6 Livelihood Security and Consumption Upgrade Industries - **Bond Performance**: 20 bond - issuing entities with relatively superior comprehensive performance have most of their outstanding bond balances at 1 billion yuan or more. Their latest credit ratings are evenly distributed among AAA, AA +, and AA. They are mainly located in Shaanxi, Guangdong, Chongqing, etc. Most of the latest bond - issuing costs are in the range of 2.71% - 3.36%, and the latest bond yields to maturity are in the range of 2.65% - 3.32%. Current institutional holdings are mainly from banks [41]. - **Fundamental Performance**: The interest coverage ratio of these 20 entities is mostly between - 0.17 - 2.30 times, the cash - to - due - debt ratio is mostly between 0.49 - 23.67, the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio is mostly between 0.28 - 0.72, and the tangible net - worth debt ratio is mostly between 160.37% - 416.79%. The total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of most entities in Q1 - Q3 of 2025 have year - on - year growth rates in the ranges of - 14.61% - 3.69% and - 7.76% - 143.84% respectively [41][42]. - **Recommended Entities**: Overseas Chinese Town Group Co., Ltd., Shanxi Cultural Tourism Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Tourism Group Co., Ltd., Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co., Ltd., Anyang Investment Group Co., Ltd., Youyang Taohuayuan Cultural Tourism Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan Expo Tourism Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Yingfeng Group Co., Ltd. [43]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - ZF Group has signed a long-term supply agreement with BMW for passenger car transmission systems, with a contract value in the billions of euros, effective until the end of the 2030s [1] - ByteDance acquired a commercial land plot in Haidian District for 2.8 billion yuan during Beijing's first land auction of 2026, which totaled 8.56 billion yuan across four plots [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Snowflake announced a new $200 million partnership with OpenAI to integrate advanced models into its platform, following a similar agreement with Anthropic [2] - Baidu Smart Cloud launched a limited-time free deployment service for OpenClaw, allowing developers to quickly deploy AI products [6] - MOGOX and LG Electronics have formed a strategic partnership to enhance collaboration in autonomous vehicle deployment and smart city governance [4] Group 3: Real Estate and Land Development - Beijing's land supply has been reduced for four consecutive years, with a focus on core urban areas, indicating a shift in new housing supply towards these regions [1] Group 4: Other Notable News - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 was released, focusing on agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, marking the first document of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8] - The 2025 production of major non-ferrous metal products in China is expected to reach a new high, with a total output of 81.75 million tons, reflecting a 3.9% increase from the previous year [8] - The 2026 National Foreign Trade Work Conference emphasized the importance of foreign trade amidst complex challenges, aiming for a balanced development of imports and exports [9]