投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight globally, with a focus on the growth potential of companies seeking overseas potassium resources [2] - The organic silicon industry is entering a new price increase cycle, supported by collaborative production cuts among manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The potassium fertilizer contract price for 2026 has been set at $348 per ton, indicating a slight increase from the previous year, reflecting a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The organic silicon intermediate price has risen to 13,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan per ton since the implementation of the joint price support plan [3] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [22] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 159 stocks rose while 262 fell, with notable gainers including Longgao Co. (+23.3%) and Shuangxing New Materials (+21.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Jiangnan Chemical plans to acquire 100% of Xi'an Qinghua Civil Explosive Materials Co. for 645 million yuan [32]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the shareholding and pledge status of Hoshine Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and its major shareholder, Ningbo Hoshine Group Co., Ltd., highlighting significant pledged shares and ownership percentages [4][16]. Shareholding Summary - Ningbo Hoshine Group directly holds 486,647,073 shares, representing 41.16% of the total share capital of the company [4][16]. - After the latest pledge, Hoshine Group has a total of 242,409,100 pledged shares, which is 49.81% of its holdings and 20.50% of the company's total share capital [4][16]. Pledge Status of Related Parties - Together with its concerted actors, Luo Liguo, Luo Yi, and Luo Yedong, Hoshine Group holds a total of 869,105,229 shares, accounting for 73.52% of the total share capital [4][16]. - The total number of pledged shares among Hoshine Group and its concerted actors is 433,253,200, which constitutes 49.85% of their total holdings and 36.65% of the company's total share capital [4][16].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced fluctuations on December 5, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 0.13% [1][9] - Key stocks in the sector, including agricultural chemicals, potassium fertilizers, and polyurethane, saw significant gains, with Yangnong Chemical and Yaqi International both rising over 2% [1][9] - The basic chemical sector has attracted substantial capital recently, with a net inflow of over 2.2 billion yuan on the day, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [12][13] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.32, which is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, indicating potential value for long-term investment [4][11] - Future demand in the chemical industry is expected to recover gradually, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions and consumption stimulus policies [5][6] - Investment opportunities may arise in sectors such as organic silicon, polyester filament, and phosphate chemicals, which are expected to benefit from favorable supply-demand dynamics and government policies [12][13] Group 3 - Salt Lake Co. reported stable operations in its lithium salt project, achieving a daily output of 60-70 tons with a purity of over 99.7%, indicating strong production performance [10][11] - The basic chemical sector has seen a cumulative net inflow of 196.8 billion yuan over the past 60 days, ranking third among 30 sectors [12][13] - The chemical ETF (516020) provides exposure to a diversified range of chemical sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the Petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a 0.36% increase as of December 4, with significant inflows of capital totaling 25.5 million yuan over nine consecutive trading days, reaching a new high in both shares and scale [1] - The report from Guohai Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a revaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, potentially slowing down global capacity expansion, which could enhance the dividend yield for companies in this sector [1] - The Chinese chemical industry is characterized by abundant net cash flow from operating activities, and a slowdown in expansion could transform it from a "money-burning beast" to a "cash cow," with supply-side changes likely to improve market conditions [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.71% of the sector distribution [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies targeting the chemical industry are a key support for the sector's strength, indicating a favorable outlook for chemical stocks, particularly in areas such as petrochemicals, coal chemicals, organic silicon, phosphate chemicals, and glyphosate [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the chemical industry, with profit declines slowing down and demand gradually rebounding, particularly in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [22][23] - The AI application in various industries is accelerating, with significant advancements in hardware and software, leading to a reshaping of the global landscape [24][25] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with rising costs impacting profit margins, yet there are emerging opportunities in niche markets like snacks and soft drinks [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index trading at average P/E ratios above their three-year median, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13][15] - The coal and non-ferrous metals sectors are leading the market, while sectors like internet services and software development are underperforming [9][13] Industry Analysis - The electric power and public utilities sector is rated "stronger than the market," with a focus on stable returns and shareholder value, particularly in large hydropower companies and high-dividend coal enterprises [20] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and price stability, but there is potential for recovery as the market undergoes structural adjustments [30][33] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets like banks and utilities for defensive positioning, while also considering growth opportunities in technology and AI sectors [12][24] - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies in the chemical sector that are well-positioned to benefit from supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes [22][23]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of various industries, highlighting investment opportunities driven by supply and demand dynamics [6][15][17] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for a 5% growth target for the year, supported by upcoming policy meetings [5][11] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, and consumer electronics for short-term investment opportunities [5][10][11] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.68% to 13,056.70 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.06 and 48.64, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [5][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility [4] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is entering a recovery phase, with improved profitability in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals, while others face challenges due to rapid capacity expansion [14][15][17] - The AI sector is witnessing accelerated application and a reshaping of the global landscape, with significant advancements in domestic AI capabilities [18][19] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with emerging opportunities in the snack and soft drink markets projected to grow significantly [20][21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated leaders in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in organic silicon and polyester industries [15][17] - In the AI sector, companies like HUAWEI and domestic chip manufacturers are highlighted for their potential in the rapidly evolving landscape [18][19] - The food and beverage sector suggests monitoring companies involved in snacks, soft drinks, and health products, which are expected to see robust growth [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a new development pattern focusing on the cyclical utilization of chlorine, phosphorus, and silicon elements, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry through strategic partnerships and project developments [1][17]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - Since 2016, the company has been leveraging capital and projects to strengthen its supply chain, transitioning from a dual-driven model to a tripartite structure focusing on silicon-based materials, phosphorus-based materials, and new energy materials [1][17]. - In 2018, the company partnered with Evonik in Germany to launch a silica project, filling a gap in the high-end market and consolidating its advantages across the entire industry chain [1][18]. - In 2019, the company signed a phosphorus-based flame retardant project with the government of Shanghang County, Fujian, targeting strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and 5G communications [3][18]. Group 2: Expansion and Acquisitions - In 2020, the company fully acquired Huayang Chemical, deepening its integration in the silicon-based industry, and completed a 300,000-ton chlorine resource comprehensive utilization project in Zhenjiang [5][21]. - The company acquired Hefei Xingyu in 2021, diversifying its agricultural chemical product line and becoming a global leader in herbicide varieties [8][20]. - In 2022, the company established three major bases in Zhejiang and Hubei, focusing on graphite anodes and new negative electrode materials for energy applications [7][23]. Group 3: Industry Recognition and Future Plans - In 2023, the company was recognized as one of the top ten organic silicon enterprises globally, expanding its applications into AI computing, semiconductors, and aerospace [10][25]. - In 2024, the company successfully launched projects for industrial silicon and precision glyphosate, enhancing its product matrix to meet diverse agricultural needs [12][27]. - Over the past sixty years, the company has maintained a commitment to align with national policies and societal needs, building a robust ecosystem in crop protection, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials [15][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to continuous production cuts in the southwest region during the dry season on both the supply and demand sides, and a significant decline in inventory due to the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, with limited actual consumption, the market may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - SI2512 closed at 9155 with a 0.38% increase and a position of 1674 [2]. - SI2601 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 203274 [2]. - SI2602 closed at 9140 with no change and a position of 52565 [2]. - SI2603 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 26444 [2]. - SI2604 closed at 9135 with a 0.11% decrease and a position of 12994 [2]. Spot Market - In the East region, 553 (non - oxygen - passing) was priced at 9350 with no change, 553 (hydrogen - passing) at 9550 with no change, 421 at 9800 with no change, 441 at 9750, and 3303 at 10450 [2]. - At Huangpu Port, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600 with no change, and 421 at 10050 [2]. - At Tianjin Port, 553 (flux - passing) was priced at 9400, and 421 at 9800 with no change [2]. - In Kunming, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600, and 421 at 10000 with no change [2]. - Sichuan DMC price for 421 was 9800, 107 - glue was 13850, polycrystalline silicon (dense material, per kg) was 51 with no change, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21500 with a 150 increase [2]. Price Difference - The price difference between si2512 and si2601 was 10 - 45 [2]. - The price difference between si2601 and si2602 was 5 - 15 [2]. - The price difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passing spot was 250 [2]. - The basis (East 553 spot - main contract) was 405 with a 15 decrease [2]. Warehouse Information - The total capacity of all warehouses was 7.5 tons, and the total number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3680 [2]. Industry Dynamics - On November 14, the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information for an annual production of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new material project by Jiangxi Xinfang High - Tech Yongxiu [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].