1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced significant price increases, with gold reaching a historical high of 866.52 yuan per gram and silver at 10,939 yuan per gram, reflecting strong market sentiment and demand for these assets [1][2][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures saw a 1.35% increase, while silver futures surged by 3.92%, both achieving new highs [1]. - The overall precious metals sector in the A-share market rose by 3.6%, indicating strong performance across the board [1]. - The combined trading volume of gold and silver futures reached 778 billion yuan, accounting for over one-third of the total A-share market turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The recent U.S. core PCE inflation rate of 2.9% has alleviated concerns about interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with indications of potential rate cuts, has further fueled market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market anxiety, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with total reserves valued at approximately $4.5 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings [7]. - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, reaching 7.402 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of purchases [9]. - Silver's demand is being driven by industrial applications, particularly in the solar energy sector, where demand is expected to grow significantly [19]. Group 4: Silver Market Insights - Silver has outperformed gold in recent months, with a price increase of 40% since June, indicating heightened investor interest [16]. - The supply constraints in the silver market are becoming more pronounced, with a projected supply decrease of 1.3% in 2024 [20]. - The current market dynamics reflect a "rigid demand growth and insufficient supply elasticity" scenario, which is a fundamental support for silver prices [21]. Group 5: Future Price Expectations - Analysts have raised their price targets for gold, with expectations that it could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of the year, and potentially $5,000 if a small percentage of U.S. Treasury holdings flows into gold [15]. - The gold-silver ratio has been adjusting, indicating that silver may still have room for valuation recovery as gold prices continue to rise [22].

Group 1 - Precious metal prices have strengthened, with spot gold surpassing $3,800 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of nearly 45% [1][3] - Spot silver prices also broke the $47 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 60% [3] - Factors driving gold prices include anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, which has declined over 10% against a basket of major currencies this year [3] Group 2 - The demand for gold as a reserve asset is increasing, as the proportion of the dollar in global central bank reserves has decreased from 60% in 2000 to 43% last year, while gold reserves have been rising [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao raising their prices by 3 and 5 yuan per gram, respectively [4]

消息面上，9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元/盎司，最高触及46.62美元/盎 司，创下自2010年以来的14年新高。据悉，在过去6个月内，现货白银累计涨幅已超过30%，表现远超 多数大宗商品，年内涨幅更是达到59%，也超过黄金的43%涨幅。 中国白银集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 0.52 0.02 4.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 344万 687万 1031万 中国白银集团(00815)升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报0.53港元，成交额1354.43万港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver has shown significant stock price growth in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of 107.96%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Company Overview - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. is located in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, and was established on November 8, 2004, with its stock listed on January 28, 2014 [2]. - The company primarily engages in the mining, smelting, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals such as silver, lead, and zinc, forming an integrated production system and full industry chain layout [2]. - The main revenue composition is 99.87% from non-ferrous metals and their products, with a minor contribution of 0.13% from other sources [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hunan Silver achieved a revenue of 4.529 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.59% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 62.197 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.01% [2]. - As of June 30, the number of shareholders increased by 21.30% to 88,000, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 17.56% to 25,127 shares [2]. Stock Market Activity - On September 29, Hunan Silver's stock price rose by 2.03%, reaching 7.05 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 869 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.69% [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent instance on September 12, where it recorded a net purchase of 228 million yuan [1]. - The stock's trading data indicates a net outflow of 17.5295 million yuan from major funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Dividend Information - Hunan Silver has cumulatively distributed 162 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3].

消息面上，9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元/盎司，最高触及46.62美元/盎 司，创下自2010年以来的14年新高。据悉，在过去6个月内，现货白银累计涨幅已超过30%，表现远超 多数大宗商品，年内涨幅更是达到59%，也超过黄金的43%涨幅。 智通财经APP获悉，中国白银集团(00815)升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报0.53港元，成交额1354.43万港 元。 ...

Core Insights - The gold market in Shanghai is experiencing active trading, with gold prices being the focal point of the market [1][16] - The international gold price has seen a significant decline, while platinum and palladium prices have shown strong performance [5][16] Group 1: Gold Market Overview - On September 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold trading price was set at 856.8 CNY per gram, with futures slightly lower at 856.12 CNY per gram [1] - The price range for gold jewelry varies significantly, from 879 CNY to 1108 CNY per gram, reflecting differences in brand, craftsmanship, and design [1] - Major banks have differing prices for investment gold bars, with Agricultural Bank's price at 893.19 CNY per gram being the highest among banks [1] Group 2: Jewelry Brand Pricing - Major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, and others are offering 99.9% pure gold products at a uniform price of 1108 CNY per gram [2] - Chow Sang Sang's pricing is slightly higher at 1109 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao Huang Jin have the highest price at 1110 CNY per gram [2] - Brands like Cai Bai and China Gold offer more competitive pricing at 1058 CNY per gram for their 99.9% pure gold products [2] Group 3: Paper Precious Metals Market - The price of paper gold was recorded at 863.71 CNY per gram, showing a slight decrease of 0.36% [3] - Paper silver prices increased slightly to 10.56 CNY per gram, while paper platinum and palladium prices experienced minor declines [3] Group 4: International Precious Metals Market - International gold prices fell to 3311.86 USD per ounce, marking a decline of 1.27% [5] - In contrast, international platinum prices rose significantly to 1176.76 USD per ounce, up by 3.03% [5] - Palladium prices surged to 1065.20 USD per ounce, reflecting a robust increase of 5.36% [5] Group 5: Precious Metals Recycling Market - The buyback price for gold jewelry is set at 840 CNY per gram, ensuring 99.9% purity [6] - Platinum jewelry has a buyback price of 325 CNY per gram, while 18K gold is priced at 606 CNY per gram based on actual gold content [7][8] - Palladium jewelry is valued at 245 CNY per gram, with a purity of 95% [9] Group 6: Price Increases in High-End Brands - The international gold price has increased over 40% this year, prompting many high-end Chinese gold brands to raise their prices [14] - Brands like Chow Sang Sang have raised retail prices to 1100 CNY per gram, reflecting the rising costs of gold materials and craftsmanship [14] - Despite price increases, consumer demand remains strong, with reports of buying frenzies at various high-end jewelry stores [15][16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market possesses dual attributes as both an industrial and precious metal, with over 60% of its demand stemming from industrial uses, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector [2][4][8] - The development of the PV industry significantly impacts silver demand, necessitating close attention to applications in PV and conductive materials, as well as macroeconomic factors like central bank policies and the dollar's performance [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite recent increases in silver prices, investor sentiment remains disappointed due to silver's higher short-term volatility compared to gold and a slowdown in PV demand growth, which raises concerns about future price trajectories [2][8] - The price relationship between silver and gold remains fundamentally unchanged, indicating a strong correlation where silver has not diverged from gold's trends [2][9] - Historical patterns suggest that surges in silver prices often signal the end of a precious metals bull market and a potential hard landing for the U.S. economy, which could lead to rapid price increases following quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - The current market is viewed as being in a "catch-up" phase, where silver prices are expected to rise alongside a continuing gold bull market, albeit at a slower pace than during a full bull run [2][18] Important but Overlooked Content - The silver market has shown an upward trend despite not meeting the high expectations set for it, particularly in the context of the ongoing gold bull market, which has seen gold prices approach $3,500 [6][12] - The interplay between silver and gold prices is influenced by broader economic conditions, including the potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy and subsequent monetary policy responses [10][21] - The demand for silver in industrial applications, especially in the PV sector, is critical for its price outlook, and any shortfall in this demand could adversely affect silver prices [10][32] - The concept of "hidden inventory" in the silver market complicates price predictions, as fluctuations in this inventory do not always correlate directly with market prices [29][31] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of silver prices will depend on multiple factors, including the development of the PV industry, global macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of related precious metals markets like gold and platinum [7][21] - The potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy remains a key factor that could trigger significant price movements in silver, similar to past market behaviors [13][14] - Investors are advised to focus on the overall trend in precious metals rather than short-term fluctuations, as the long-term outlook remains positive amid ongoing gold market strength [20][22]

每经编辑：杜宇 当地时间9月26日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨299.97点，涨幅0.65%；纳指涨0.44%；标普500指数涨0.59%。 热门科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨超4%，微软、亚马逊涨幅不足1%，甲骨文跌超2%。金属与采矿、汽车股涨幅居前，世纪铝业涨超7%，泛美白银、美国黄 金公司、黄金资源涨超4%，Lucid、福特汽车涨超3%。加密矿企、稀土概念跌幅居前，Hut 8跌近5%，TeraWulf跌超1%。艺电收涨15%，创最近六年来最佳 单日表现，报道称沙特主权财富基金PIF和银湖资本考虑将其私有化。 特斯拉报440.40美元，涨幅4.02%，市值为14643.96亿美元。其市值一夜增加约566亿美元（约合人民币4038亿元）。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.56%，热门中概股多数下跌，金山云跌超10%；蔚来、理想汽车跌超5%；哔哩哔哩跌超4%；百度跌3%，爱奇艺、阿里巴巴跌 超2%；小鹏汽车涨超2%。 图片来源：视觉中国 据证券时报，9月26日晚，美国公布美联储衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，即8月核心PCE，数据显示，美国8月核心PCE价格指数环比增长0.2%，预估 为0.2%，前值为0.3%；8 ...