【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月7日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.52个百分点至53.14%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比回 升0.26个百分点至44.46%，塑编订单环比略有增加，略低于去年同期。11月7日，中海油大榭新二线 等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至83.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨 至26%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，近日市场消化俄罗 斯石油受制裁消息，中美两国领导人会谈基本符合市场预期，两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定 12月增产13.7万桶/日，但明年一季度暂停增产，原油价格窄幅震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的 中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游处于旺季，但塑编等订单跟进持续性 有限，双十一备货需求不及预期，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以 刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问 题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。预计近期PP偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP ...

Group 1 - The core transaction on November 7 involved a block trade of 1 million shares of Rongsheng Petrochemical, with a transaction value of 10.80 million yuan at a price of 10.80 yuan per share [2][3] - The closing price of Rongsheng Petrochemical on the same day was 10.80 yuan, reflecting a 4.75% increase, with a turnover rate of 1.05% and a total trading volume of 1.057 billion yuan [2] - Over the past five days, the stock has seen a cumulative increase of 5.99%, while the net outflow of funds during this period amounted to 11.03 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Rongsheng Petrochemical is 1.335 billion yuan, which has increased by 19.82 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 1.51% [3] - Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was established on September 15, 1995, with a registered capital of approximately 998.94 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies that have been catalyzed by recent government actions, which are expected to extend investment durations and shift market dynamics towards supply-side constraints and orderly competition [2][3][4] - The "anti-involution" policies are now integrated into the five-year plan, indicating a shift in focus from short-term inventory cycles to medium-term capacity cycles, which is anticipated to positively influence prices and performance in the coming year [3][4][14] - The report notes that the current bull market is transitioning from liquidity-driven to inflation-driven, with M1 and corporate cash recovery providing a conducive environment for inflation to return, thereby enhancing the elasticity of tightly supplied cyclical products [4][5][17] Group 2 - The report identifies specific industries that are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, particularly those with tight supply conditions, including non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and certain consumer sectors [6][26] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring cyclical industries that are undervalued yet exhibit high elasticity, such as coal, steel, and construction materials, which are expected to see significant profit growth as the economic environment improves [5][26] - The report suggests that the recovery of commodity prices, such as polysilicon and coal, indicates a potential bottoming out of prices, which could lead to a new cycle of profit growth driven by the "anti-involution" measures [26]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical market is expected to experience a strong recovery in the medium term, despite current pressures from oversupply and shrinking profits. Demand is projected to rebound around 2027-2028 [1] Industry Summary - The current petrochemical market is facing an oversupply situation, which is putting pressure on the profitability of the polyethylene and aromatics value chains [1] - Since 2020, nearly 35 million tons of new ethylene capacity has been added globally, primarily concentrated in China and the United States [1] - Current operating rates for major petrochemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and styrene monomer are around 70%, while the historical normal level is 85%-90% [1] - This low operating rate is expected to persist until 2026, but the current downturn is viewed as a "cyclical adjustment" rather than a structural decline [1] Future Outlook - Demand growth is anticipated to exceed the growth of new supply by 2027 and 2028, particularly as China's self-sufficiency stabilizes and consumption in Southeast Asia accelerates [1] - As capacity optimization is gradually implemented and inventory levels normalize, operating rates for petrochemical products are expected to recover, starting with polyvinyl chloride (PVC), followed by polypropylene and polyethylene [1] - In Northeast Asia, countries like South Korea, China, and Japan are advancing the integration of cracking facilities and capacity optimization efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dalian is on track to become the first city in Northeast China to achieve a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan, with a current GDP of 951.69 billion yuan in 2024, and a growth rate of 6.0% in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the national average by 0.8% [1][3][5]. Economic Contributions - The industrial sector is crucial for Dalian's economy, contributing 60% to GDP growth in 2023, with the petrochemical industry leading at a projected output of 425.6 billion yuan in 2024, ranking first in Northeast China and fourth nationally [4][5]. - Dalian's port economy is another significant asset, with the port ranking fourth globally in container port performance, handling over 98% of Northeast China's foreign trade containers and 60% of crude oil transshipment [7][8]. Trade and Export Performance - Dalian's foreign trade accounts for approximately 60% of Liaoning Province's total and 40% of Northeast China's total, with exports reaching 185.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, marking a growth of 16.4% [8]. - Key export sectors such as shipbuilding, automotive parts, and vehicles have seen substantial growth rates of 32.8%, 30.4%, and 241.8% respectively [8]. Emerging Industries - Dalian is focusing on new economic drivers, with strategic emerging industries projected to account for 14% of GDP in 2024, aiming to increase to 15% this year, which will inject new vitality into the city's economic growth [8][12]. Regional Impact - Achieving the 1 trillion yuan GDP milestone would not only signify a numerical achievement for Dalian but also enhance its capacity to drive regional development, serving as a model for other cities in Northeast China [12][13].

Core Insights - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 23.79% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 15.86% since its inception [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 6.01% over the last six months [3] - The ETF has the lowest maximum drawdown of 6.47% compared to its benchmark and other comparable funds [3] - Tracking accuracy is high, with a tracking error of only 0.035% over the past month, the best among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF's longest winning streak lasted for six months, with a total increase of 23.51% during that period [3] - The average return during the months of increase is 5.06% [3] - The maximum drawdown relative to the benchmark is 0.14% [3] Index Composition - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 56.05% of the index [3] - The top ten stocks include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and Yilong Shares, among others [3][5] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Wanhua Chemical (10.47%), China Petroleum (7.63%), and Yilong Shares (6.44%) [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dalian is on track to become the first city in Northeast China to achieve a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from its industrial and port economies [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - Dalian's GDP reached 951.69 billion yuan in 2024, approaching the 1 trillion yuan mark, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in the first three quarters of 2025, outperforming the national average by 0.8 percentage points [1][3]. - The industrial sector contributed 60% to Dalian's GDP growth in 2023, with the petrochemical industry leading, projected to generate 425.6 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. Industrial Strengths - Dalian is home to the world's largest PTA production base and the largest single construction oil refining project in China, showcasing its industrial prowess [4]. - The city's industrial added value growth rate reached 12.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, ranking among the top 15 sub-provincial cities [4]. Port Economy - Dalian Port has risen to the fourth position globally in the Container Port Performance Index, handling over 98% of Northeast China's foreign trade containers [5]. - The port's container throughput is expected to exceed 5 million TEUs in 2024, marking a five-year high, and significantly contributing to logistics, trade, and finance sectors [5]. Emerging Industries - Dalian is focusing on new economic drivers, with strategic emerging industries projected to account for 14% of GDP in 2024, aiming to increase to 15% [6]. - Recent projects include a national AI computing center and the successful delivery of the first hydrogen fuel cell rail locomotive [6]. Regional Impact - Dalian's success in reaching the 1 trillion yuan GDP milestone could serve as a model for other cities in Northeast China, potentially attracting more investment and talent to the region [8]. - The city is expected to play a pivotal role in revitalizing the Northeast, enhancing its economic influence and collaborative networks with inland cities [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend in the near future due to factors such as the increase in new production capacity, the decline in plastic weaving start - up rate, lower - than - expected Double Eleven stocking demand, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the plastic weaving start - up rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 6th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard wire drawing dropped to around 21% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant inventory accumulation at the beginning of the month [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a narrow - range fluctuation of crude oil prices [1] - New production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently [1] Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased by 0.57% with increased positions, closing at 6471 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading range was between 6415 yuan/ton and 6490 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 8183 lots to 652,784 lots [2] Spot Market - Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with wire drawing priced at 6240 - 6560 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 6th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the PP enterprise start - up rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving start - up rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Thursday decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton [5]

Economic Growth - Five cities, Meizhou, Zhanjiang, Chaozhou, Shanwei, and Qingyuan, have economic growth rates exceeding the provincial average of 4.1%, with rates of 6.0%, 5.0%, 5.0%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - Meizhou's economic growth accelerated significantly from 3.6% last year to 6.0% this year, maintaining the highest growth rate in the province [2] - Zhanjiang's economic growth also improved from 1.2% last year to 5.0% this year, indicating a strong recovery [2] Industrial Performance - Meizhou's industrial added value increased by 9.0%, with significant contributions from the power, electronic information, and mechanical manufacturing sectors, which grew by 7.7%, 24.7%, and 9.6% respectively [3] - Zhanjiang led the province with a 10.4% increase in industrial added value, driven by the green steel, petrochemical, and energy industries [3] - Other cities like Yunfu, Heyuan, Qingyuan, and Shaoguan also reported industrial growth rates above the provincial average of 3.5% [3] Infrastructure and Investment - Infrastructure investment in cities such as Chaozhou, Jieyang, Zhanjiang, and Meizhou grew significantly, with rates of 28.4%, 17.3%, 14.8%, and 13.9% respectively [5] - Industrial investment in Maoming surged by 30.7%, attributed to the implementation of various industrial projects [5] - Industrial technological upgrades also saw substantial growth, with Maoming, Meizhou, and Yangjiang reporting increases of 67.1%, 48.5%, and 39.0% respectively [5] Agricultural and Consumer Market - Agricultural output in cities like Shaoguan, Chaozhou, and Shanwei grew above the provincial rate of 4.9%, with respective growth rates of 6.2%, 6.2%, and 5.8% [6] - The tourism and consumption sectors showed positive trends, with Shantou's tourist turnover increasing by 8.1% and accommodation facilities seeing a 20.3% rise in overnight visitors [7] - Real estate sales also experienced growth, with Yangjiang's sales area increasing by 15.9% and Chaozhou's real estate development investment rising by 46.6% in September [7]

该项目的设计产能为乙烯100万吨/年、丙烯52万吨/年、丁二烯14万吨/年、聚丙烯35万/年、BTX（苯/甲 苯/二甲苯）40万吨/年。 据印度尼西亚安塔拉通讯社报道，11月6日，乐天化学印度尼西亚公司新建的芝勒贡（Cilegon）石化工 厂举行落成仪式。 报道称，这座耗资39亿美元的工厂是印尼最大的现代化石化生产基地，生产15种石化产品，有望减少印 尼对进口石化原料的依赖，有力地促进了下游产业的发展。 ...