Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to export dynamics, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [4][11] - The report suggests a mid-to-long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 29, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.34, at the 63.93 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.83, at the 14.09 percentile historically. For the oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.98, at the 15.69 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.19, at the 2.39 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 23-29, 38 chemical products saw price increases, 38 saw decreases, and 24 remained stable. The average price of WTI crude oil fell by 12.56% to $65.52 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 12.00% to $67.77 per barrel. The average price of MDI decreased by 1.59% to 15,500 CNY/ton, while H acid increased by 5.39% to 44,000 CNY/ton [10][28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and those in high-growth sectors such as oil and gas, electronic materials, and new energy materials. Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials sector [4][11]

轮胎板块调研反馈及重点提示推荐 20250627 摘要 轮胎板块二季度预计利空出尽，企业业绩展现韧性，三季度有望迎来明 显拐点，原材料价格企稳，成本压力缓解，美国贸易政策成本转移逐步 落地。 自主品牌轮胎市场份额持续提升，预计今年增速在 8%至 14%之间，未 来本土强势自主品牌市场份额有望达到 80%以上，驱动本土优质轮胎企 业增长。 头部轮胎企业赛轮展现较强盈利韧性，一季度仍保持同比微幅增长，当 前 PB 估值已跌至历史低位，预计三季度业绩环比快速增长，欧洲双反 调查有望推动估值修复。 天然橡胶价格自 4 月以来下跌 20%，缓解了轮胎企业利润压力，预计三 季度降价效应将完全反映到企业业绩层面，并覆盖美国市场加税带来的 负面影响。 针对美国关税政策，轮胎企业短期内通过补贴经销商价格共同承担关税， 并计划 7 月涨价，预计 2025 年第三季度通过涨价和天然橡胶降价逐步 消除关税影响。 Q&A 近期轮胎板块的市场表现如何，主要受到哪些因素影响？ 轮胎板块在今年一季度经历了显著的利润下滑，估值水平跌至约 8 倍。主要原 因包括天然橡胶价格自 2024 年以来持续上涨，美国加征关税导致海外产能受 限，以及地缘事 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the successful completion of China's largest offshore gas field, "Deep Sea No. 1," which is expected to produce over 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually, enhancing energy supply to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3]. - A significant coal comprehensive utilization project in Xinjiang has commenced, with an investment of 27.4 billion yuan, projected to generate an annual revenue of 15.4 billion yuan and create approximately 2,000 jobs [3]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain chemical sectors [4][5][10]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.95%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index and the Shenwan Chemical Index saw gains of 4.15% and 3.11%, respectively [16]. - The top-performing sub-industries included membrane materials (11.79%), other plastic products (6.72%), and nylon (6.51%) [19]. Key Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire companies, suggesting a focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire due to their growth potential in a global market [4]. - In the consumer electronics sector, a gradual recovery is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies involved in the panel supply chain [4]. - The phosphoric chemical sector is highlighted for its tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector [5]. - The fluorochemical sector is expected to stabilize as production quotas for refrigerants are reduced, supporting profitability [5]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme One: Domestic tire manufacturers are positioned strongly, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - Investment Theme Two: The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with a focus on upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - Investment Theme Three: Resilient sectors such as phosphoric and fluorochemical industries are recommended for investment due to favorable supply-demand conditions [5]. - Investment Theme Four: The recovery of leading chemical companies is anticipated as economic conditions improve, with recommendations for companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Chemical [10]. - Investment Theme Five: Attention is drawn to vitamin products due to supply disruptions, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Heavens being highlighted [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector is currently at a historical low valuation, with PB percentile below 10%, indicating a favorable configuration for investment opportunities [1][2] - The Chinese chemical industry has become the largest market globally, with a market share of 48%, and is expected to shift towards high-end development and globalization [3][10] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment strategy for the basic chemical sector in mid-2025 focuses on "new trends continuing to strengthen," emphasizing marginal changes, trade connections, and performance realization [2] - The market is particularly attentive to oil prices, with key concerns regarding OPEC's production increase and U.S. shale oil supply, as both factors may impact future production levels [4][19] - The basic chemical sector is under pressure but may have reached a bottom in terms of new capacity, inventory, demand, and valuation, with many sub-sectors showing low PB percentiles [5][18] Sub-sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, promising sub-sectors include platinumene and methomyl, benefiting from favorable supply-demand dynamics without new capacity additions [6][7] - The sweetener market is highlighted for its stable supply-demand structure, with a concentrated supply base enhancing market stability and potential [8] Investment Opportunities - Focus on domestic substitution opportunities in sectors with large market space and high industry barriers, such as lubricant additives, which have a favorable competitive landscape [11] - The tire industry is identified as a key area for overseas expansion, with significant global demand projected for 2024 [12] - Biodiesel presents investment opportunities driven by policy, particularly in regions like the EU, where production capacity is limited [13][14] - The refrigerant industry is expected to benefit from supply-side policy constraints, leading to prolonged price increases [15] Risks and Challenges - The basic chemical sector faces risks including raw material price volatility, trade policy changes, and potential demand pressure, which could delay the clearing of excess capacity [19] - Specific risks include the realization of capacity in sectors like potassium fertilizer, which is characterized by oligopolistic market dynamics [18] Additional Important Insights - The sweetener market's supply structure is concentrated among a few manufacturers, providing stability and potential for growth [8][9] - The compound fertilizer sector is noted for its unique market dynamics, focusing on channel markets rather than just investment construction [16]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Dehua and the Michelin Guide marks a significant milestone in promoting Dehua's porcelain in the international high-end dining market [1][2] - Dehua has a rich history of over 3,700 years in porcelain making, known for its pure white quality and exquisite craftsmanship, earning the reputation of "the world looks to China for white porcelain, and China looks to Dehua" [1] - The partnership aims to enhance the visibility and competitiveness of Dehua's high-end ceramic tableware in the global market [2] Group 1 - The official announcement of the partnership took place on June 24 in Dehua County, Fujian, highlighting the strategic move towards internationalization of Dehua's ceramic industry [1] - Dehua's ceramic industry has focused on strengthening leading enterprises, smart transformation, design research and development, and brand cultivation, achieving record high output value and significant international influence [1] - The Michelin Guide, established in 1889, is recognized as an authoritative benchmark in the culinary world, originally aimed at enhancing consumer mobility experiences [1] Group 2 - A cooperation agreement was signed between Dehua and the Michelin Guide, focusing on industry empowerment, brand promotion, and educational transmission [2] - The collaboration is expected to deepen the relationship between Dehua's ceramic industry and Michelin restaurants, enhancing the quality and development of Dehua's ceramic tableware [2] - Chefs from Michelin-starred restaurants express anticipation for the innovative expression of Chinese cuisine through Dehua porcelain, aiming to promote Chinese culinary culture globally [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the upcoming semi-annual reports, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025 [1]. - The phosphatic fertilizer export window is opening, with high demand expected to persist, alleviating domestic overcapacity issues and supporting profitability for major phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - Increased scrutiny on chemical safety following recent accidents is likely to elevate the overall demand for pesticides, as regulatory measures may lead to the exit of non-compliant production capacities [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 3385.44 points, down 2.49% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.04% [10]. - Key chemical products such as formaldehyde, Singapore diesel, NYMEX natural gas, and Brent crude oil saw significant price increases [18]. Key Chemical Sub-Industries - **Polyester Filament**: Prices have been fluctuating upwards, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY increasing by 167.86, 128.57, and 117.85 CNY/ton respectively [21]. - **Tires**: The industry saw a slight increase in operating rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 61.39% and semi-steel tire rates at 71.54% [32]. - **Refrigerants**: The R22 market remains stable with high prices, while R134a prices are also on the rise due to increased demand from the repair market and the electric vehicle sector [39][43]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.05 CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.14 CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 25 to 12 [4]. - Hailide's EPS is expected to rise from 0.35 CNY in 2024 to 0.41 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 14 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to see significant growth in EPS from 1.24 CNY in 2024 to 4.80 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 35 to 9 [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry and its dynamics in 2025, highlighting geopolitical tensions and economic policies impacting supply chains and market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Non-Ferrous Metals Market - Geopolitical conflicts may intensify resource nationalism, disrupting the supply chain of non-ferrous metals [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metals market in 2025 is divided into two halves: the first half driven by tariff adjustments and supply disruptions, while the second half is expected to see a decline in real interest rates, further boosting metal prices [1][3]. - The current state of the non-ferrous metals market is described as lackluster, with demand not yet compelling enough to force new easing policies [4]. Gold Market - The gold market is anticipated to experience minor pullbacks followed by significant upward trends, attributed to insufficient global wealth allocation towards gold [5]. - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhaojin Mining, Zhongrun Resources, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the rising gold prices [5]. Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices have surged due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, which accounts for 70-80% of global supply [6]. - If the ban persists, downstream inventory may clear, enhancing valuations for companies like Huayou Cobalt and others [6]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The 2025 fiscal policy is characterized by rapid government bond issuance, with the balance growth rate increasing from approximately 15% at the end of 2024 to 21% by May 2025 [8]. - Fiscal spending has accelerated, directly impacting infrastructure and consumer spending, with appliance consumption growth reaching over 50% due to trade-in subsidies [8]. Challenges Ahead - The second half of 2025 may face challenges due to limited subsidy amounts and potential export pressures, which could constrain economic growth [9][10]. - The monetary policy is expected to loosen further, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially dropping to 1.3%-1.4% [11]. Shipping and Transportation - The shipping sector is affected by geopolitical tensions, with the Red Sea reopening delayed, improving supply-demand dynamics [3][20]. - Oil shipping rates have surged due to increased costs from geopolitical conflicts, significantly enhancing profitability for shipping companies [20]. Cement and Construction Materials - The cement industry is experiencing a decline in prices due to reduced demand and cost control measures, with prices dropping from 400 RMB per ton to 360 RMB [13]. - The construction materials sector is currently weak, with potential risks of demand decline and increased competition [15]. Coal and Steel Industries - The coal industry is facing a downturn due to weak demand and high supply, with prices for thermal coal down 20% year-on-year [17]. - The steel industry is maintaining decent profit levels despite weak prices, with expectations for improved margins due to lower raw material costs [19]. Aviation Industry - The aviation sector anticipates high passenger load factors during the summer season, with demand growth outpacing supply growth [23][24]. - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are expected to impact airline costs, but overall profitability is projected to improve [25]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector faces dual pressures from rising costs and weakening demand, with uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs on exports to China [28]. - Companies in the coal chemical sector, such as Hualu and Baofeng, are highlighted as having cost advantages due to rising oil prices [29]. Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemicals sector is experiencing supply issues, particularly with glyphosate prices rising significantly [30]. Tire Industry - The tire industry benefits from declining natural and synthetic rubber prices, leading to improved profitability for companies like Zhongce Rubber and Sailun [31]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic landscape is complex, with various sectors facing unique challenges and opportunities driven by geopolitical events, fiscal policies, and market dynamics [2][7][10].

【原料及现货】截至6月19日，杯胶48.30（+0.65）泰铢/千克，胶乳57.75（+0.25）泰铢/千克。云南胶 水收购价13300（0）元/吨，海南新鲜胶乳14100（+200）元/吨，全乳胶上海市场14000（0）元/吨，青 岛保税区泰标1710（-10）美元/吨，泰混13850（0）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至6月19日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为71.54%，环比+1.56个百分点， 同比-8.52个百分点。半钢胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，部分企业为满足订单需求适度提产，另有个别 企业因电厂检修，生产暂停，限制周内样本企业产能利用率提升幅度。中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率 为61.39%，环比+2.69个百分点，同比-0.45个百分点。上周检修的样本企业排产逐步恢复至常规水平， 带动全钢胎企业整体产能利用率走高。 1-5月，泰国出口混合胶合计为74.7万吨，同比增55%；混合胶出口到中国合计为74.2万吨，同比增 59%。 【逻辑】供应方面，下旬海外降雨有缓和预期，利于新胶出量，月底云南替代种植指标逐渐进入，对国 内供应明显施压。需求方面，6月中下旬轮胎终端市场处于逐步恢复阶段，然周期内物流 ...

Core Insights - Natural rubber futures experienced slight adjustments on June 19, with spot prices remaining stable [1] - The main contract for natural rubber futures closed at 14,030.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.21% increase, with a trading volume of 292,773 lots [2] Price Overview - The trading prices for standard rubber (SCRWF) from various suppliers in Shandong Province were reported at 13,800 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai market indicated a transaction price range for 2023 SCRWF at 13,900-14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Market Conditions - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to harvest, but weather disruptions have limited output in Thailand, leading to a rebound in cup rubber and latex prices [3][5] - The inventory of natural rubber futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was reported at 193,120 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous trading day [4] Demand Factors - The downstream tire industry is facing challenges due to difficulties in inventory reduction, a significant drop in export orders, and a seasonal decline in automotive consumption [5] - The consumption of semi-steel tires, closely related to exports, is particularly weak, contributing to ongoing pressure on rubber prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO of Zhongce Rubber, despite being a leading company in the tire industry, has faced significant post-listing challenges, leading to a rapid decline in stock price and raising concerns about the current market environment for new stocks [3][10][13]. Company Overview - Zhongce Rubber, established in 1992, is recognized as the "leader" in China's tire industry, holding the top position for 16 consecutive years and ranking among the top ten globally [8]. - The company reported impressive financial performance, with a 2024 annual report showing earnings per share of 4.81 yuan and a year-on-year revenue and net profit growth of 11.35% and 43.57%, respectively [8]. IPO Details - Zhongce Rubber launched its IPO on June 5, with an issue price of 46.5 yuan per share, raising 40.66 billion yuan, making it the largest IPO in A-shares for the year [3]. - On its first trading day, the stock opened at 57 yuan, a 22.58% increase from the issue price, with a market capitalization nearing 500 billion yuan [3]. Stock Performance - The stock price fell sharply after the initial surge, closing at 47.03 yuan on the second day and eventually dropping to 45.31 yuan by the seventh day, marking a 2.56% decline from the issue price and officially entering a state of loss [5][10]. - As of the latest data, the stock is trading at 45.31 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 396.23 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.27, which is below the industry average of 22.83 [6][11]. Market Environment - The market has shown increased skepticism towards new IPOs, with a growing number of cases of stock price declines post-listing, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment [10][13]. - Factors contributing to the poor performance include the large market capitalization of Zhongce Rubber, which makes it challenging to attract sufficient capital in the current market environment, as well as concerns over the company's high debt levels and past dividend distributions [10].