Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with blast furnace operating rates increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 6.2% [2][5] - The chemical production chain has also seen a rebound, with soda ash and PTA operating rates rising by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes of 2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and 8.5 percentage points to -6.3% [2][12] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved, increasing by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates rising by 4.3% and 1.1% respectively, year-on-year changes of 5.8 percentage points to -5.5% and 1.1 percentage points to -4.4% [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remain at a high level year-on-year at 12.4% [2][22] Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][25] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 3% to 7.2% and 7.8% to 13.4% for cargo and container throughput respectively [2][32] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3][57] - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% and metal prices increased by 0.3% [3][63]

Market Overview - On September 16, the industrial metals sector declined by 1.13%, with Zhongfu Industrial leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metals sector included: - Liyuan Co., Ltd. (002501) with a closing price of 2.49, up 2.89% on a trading volume of 1.4751 million shares and a turnover of 363 million yuan [1] - Yian Technology (300328) closed at 17.70, up 2.85% with a trading volume of 477,600 shares and a turnover of 838 million yuan [1] - Xingyin Tin (000426) closed at 26.20, up 2.30% with a trading volume of 704,100 shares and a turnover of 1.799 billion yuan [1] - Conversely, significant decliners included: - Santai Wenchu (600595) closed at 5.33, down 4.65% with a trading volume of 1.2563 million shares [2] - Yuguang Jin Lead (600531) closed at 11.46, down 4.26% with a trading volume of 1.6218 million shares [2] - Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612) closed at 8.40, down 3.34% with a trading volume of 622,200 shares [2] Capital Flow - The industrial metals sector experienced a net outflow of 2.644 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.998 billion yuan [2][3] - Notable capital flows included: - Xingyin Tin (000426) had a net inflow of 51.23 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 53.62 million yuan [3] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532) saw a net inflow of 30.43 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 15.86 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are trading below their highest closing levels since May 2024, as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since Trump's return to the White House [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Industrial metals started the week strong, with London copper rising over 1%, marking a year-to-date increase of over 15% [1] - As of now, London Metal Exchange copper prices have decreased by approximately 0.4% to $10,150 per ton [1] - Aluminum prices have slightly retreated from a six-month high, while zinc prices have dipped from their year-to-date peak [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors widely anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The market is particularly focused on the central bank's guidance regarding future easing measures [1] Group 3: Impact on Commodities - Rate cuts typically boost demand and weaken the dollar, which in turn supports commodity prices by lowering the purchasing cost for holders of other currencies [1]

证券之星消息，9月15日工业金属板块较上一交易日下跌0.79%，华钰矿业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3860.5，下跌0.26%。深证成指报收于13005.77，上涨0.63%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601388 | 怡球资源 | 3.04 | 6.29% | 219.56万 | 6.60亿 | | 600615 | 整原書造 | 13.56 | 5.61% | 19.73万 | 2.65亿 | | 600531 | 豫光金铅 | 11.97 | 3.82% | 175.31万 | 21.29亿 | | 000603 | 盛达资源 | 22.42 | 3.65% | 51.56万 | 11.50亿 | | 000737 | 北方铜业 | 13.96 | 2.42% | 290.43万 | 41.17亿 | | 002501 | 利源股份 | 2.42 | 1.68% | 124.60万 | 3.01亿 | | 002532 | 天山铝业 | ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇9月15日｜铝价在本周美联储议息会议前连续第七个交易日上涨，市场预期美联储可能实施降 息。伦敦金属交易所基准铝价在亚盘时段走高，一度上涨0.6%至每吨2,705美元，触及3月以来最高水 平，随后涨幅收窄，有望创下逾一年来最长连涨纪录。投资者正等待美联储周三的政策决议，对货币宽 松的预期升温令美元承压，从而提振工业金属价格。近期铝库存提取请求激增引发供应担忧，持续为铝 价提供支撑。 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou Partner Packaging Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 200,000 RMB [1] - The company’s business scope includes sales of packaging materials and products, food-grade plastic packaging containers, packaging equipment, electronic products, and baby products [1] Business Scope - The company is involved in the sales of various packaging materials and products, including specialized packaging equipment [1] - It also engages in the retail and wholesale of clothing and accessories, as well as sales of technical glass products and daily-use glass products [1] - The company’s operations extend to the sales of non-ferrous metal alloys, metal wire ropes, rubber products, sanitary ware manufacturing, and plastic products [1] - Additionally, it is involved in import and export activities, as well as internet sales excluding items that require special licenses [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% to 3884.71 points, marking a new high since August 19, 2015 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52%, and the North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.26% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,487 billion yuan, an increase of 1,526 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,000 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals and gold sectors performed strongly, with electric alloy stocks rising over 16%, and companies like Shengda Resources, Yuguang Gold Lead, Northern Copper, and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [1] - The steel sector saw a rally near noon, with Hualing Steel reaching the daily limit, and Shougang and New Steel shares rising over 5% [1] - The real estate sector strengthened, with stocks like Xiangjiang Holdings, Rongsheng Development, and Shoukai Holdings hitting the daily limit, as institutional investors noted a stabilization in the performance of quality real estate companies and increased confidence in land acquisition [1] - The storage chip sector also surged, with stocks like Kaipu Cloud and Dongxin shares rising over 10%, and Demingli hitting the daily limit, following a significant overnight increase of over 7.5% in major storage manufacturer Micron [1] Declining Sectors - The liquor sector faced declines, with Guojijiu falling over 3% and Shede Liquor dropping over 2% [1] - Brokerage stocks generally declined, with Guohai Securities falling over 2%, and Pacific and Tianfeng Securities dropping over 1% [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **commodity market**, focusing on the dynamics of supply and demand, price fluctuations, and the impact of geopolitical and economic factors on commodity prices [1][6][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Commodity Supercycle**: The current commodity market is in a down phase of the previous supercycle, driven by urbanization and industrialization, with no new cycle formation expected due to weak growth in emerging markets and de-globalization trends [1][6][7]. 2. **CTA Strategy Performance**: The Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies have shown significant volatility, with expectations for improved efficiency starting in 2025. The strategies are influenced by fundamental changes and external factors [1][8]. 3. **Tariff Policies**: Tariff policies have had a notable impact on the commodity market, particularly in metals, with U.S. policies and geopolitical risks acting as significant variables [1][9]. 4. **Market Sentiment Monitoring**: Market sentiment can be gauged through CFTC positions, changes in gold ETFs, and options market data, indicating risk appetite and price distribution [1][10]. 5. **Demand-Side Challenges**: Demand-side forecasting models have limited explanatory power, often relying on simple models that do not account for the dollar variable to avoid error transfer. Economic growth is expected to be under pressure in 2025, suppressing commodity prices [1][11]. 6. **Supply-Side Constraints**: Insufficient upstream investment in oil, gas, and metal mining is leading to capacity constraints, which will frequently impact prices from 2025 to 2026 [1][12][13]. 7. **Relative Oversupply Expectation**: A significant decline in demand growth expectations is leading to a relative oversupply in the commodity market for 2025, despite ongoing supply-side stories [1][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical tensions have a substantial impact on energy markets, with oil prices fluctuating significantly due to these risks [1][21][22]. 2. **Copper Market Dynamics**: Changes in demand and supply for copper have been significant, with new demand sources emerging from electrification and green energy, while supply remains tight [1][33]. 3. **Black Metals Market**: The black metals market faces challenges due to a downturn in the real estate cycle and potential new production releases, which may lower prices in the long term [1][34]. 4. **Agricultural Market Influences**: Agricultural markets are influenced by various factors, including weather disturbances and trade relations, which can lead to domestic shortages [1][35]. 5. **Gold Market Factors**: The gold market is influenced by interest rates, risk aversion, and central bank purchases, with the latter's impact diminishing recently as rates and ETF dynamics gain prominence [1][37][38]. Conclusion The conference call provides a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market, highlighting the interplay between supply and demand, the effects of geopolitical risks, and the evolving dynamics of specific commodities like gold and copper. The insights suggest a cautious outlook for the commodity market in the near term, with significant attention needed on policy changes and economic indicators.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the inventory status analysis of 23 representative industrial metal companies based on their 2025 semi-annual financial reports [1] - Among the selected companies, Guiyan Platinum's inventory accounts for a significant portion of total assets, approximately 37.34% [1] - Huaxi Nonferrous's inventory scale showed the largest year-on-year increase, reaching 795 million yuan, which is a 51% growth [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the proportion of inventory to total assets increased for most listed companies, with several companies like Guiyan Platinum, Xianglu Tungsten, and Northern Rare Earth exceeding 30% [1] - The inventory turnover efficiency of most companies was below 180 days, while three companies, including Baotai Co., had turnover days exceeding 300 days, indicating lower efficiency [1]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the inventory status of 23 representative industrial metal companies based on their half-year financial disclosures for 2025, highlighting significant changes in inventory scale and turnover efficiency [1][2]. Inventory Scale Analysis - In the first half of 2025, most industrial metal companies experienced an increase in inventory scale, with Huaxi Nonferrous's inventory growing the most, reaching 795 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51% [1]. - In 2024, several companies had high inventory scales, with Guiyan Platinum's inventory at 7.391 billion yuan, up 44.24% year-on-year, and accounting for 37.34% of total assets [2][3]. - Other notable companies include: - Xianglu Tungsten's inventory at 781 million yuan, up 10.97%, with a 36.36% asset ratio [2][3]. - China Rare Earth's inventory at 2.025 billion yuan, up 28.61%, with a 36.14% asset ratio [2][3]. - Northern Rare Earth's inventory at 15.958 billion yuan, up 16.74%, with a 33.73% asset ratio [2][3]. - Guangsheng Nonferrous's inventory at 2.406 billion yuan, up 7.01%, with a 30.76% asset ratio [2][3]. Inventory Turnover Efficiency - Most companies reported inventory turnover days below 180 days, indicating efficient inventory management [3]. - However, three companies exhibited low turnover efficiency, with turnover days exceeding 300 days: - Baotai Co., with 312.34 days [3]. - Yunnan Geology, with 327.51 days [3]. - Jintian Titanium, with 330.15 days [3].