7日上午，三位金融管理部门"一把手"亮相国新办发布会，介绍一揽子重磅金融政策相关情况，释放出 了稳市场稳预期的强信号。相关数据和政策安排，显示出中国金融体系更加从容自信的姿态，更强的系 统化思维和统筹能力，以及对把握市场趋势、应对外部冲击、综合运用政策的游刃有余。这是我国抵御 外部冲击、坚定做好自己的事的有力保障。 首先，在外部环境复杂多变的背景下，中国金融体系展现出强大的稳定性与韧性：股债汇市场运行平稳 有序，上证指数在4月7日短暂回调后快速企稳回升；10年期国债收益率稳定在1.65%左右；人民币兑美 元汇率在经历小幅波动后，目前也稳定在7.2元附近。 其次，金融部门推出的一揽子政策眼光长远，构建起"远中近"协同发力的政策矩阵，形成多层次、立体 化的政策支持体系。一是凭借双轮驱动，在房地产与资本市场领域持续精准施策，筑牢市场稳定基石。 自去年9月起，通过城市房地产融资协调机制扩围增效，推动住宅建设与交付保障，让房地产市场供需 格局显著改善。数据显示，今年一季度房地产贷款余额增长超7500亿元，其中个人住房贷款新增规模创 2022年以来单季新高，住房租赁贷款同比增长28%，彰显了政策落地实效。而此次全面降准0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic backdrop is characterized as "external risks, internal responses," with technology breakthroughs and geopolitical changes driving the restructuring of China's asset valuation system [1] Group 1: China Asset Valuation - The narrative of China's asset revaluation continues, despite the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has caused global asset volatility [2] - The core of China's asset revaluation narrative lies in technology breakthroughs and geopolitical changes, with AI technology development acting as a catalyst [3] - Current valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are relatively low, with the CSI 300 index's dynamic P/E ratio below 11 times, which is approximately 0.8 to 0.9 standard deviations below the historical average [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 is about 3.5%, indicating a historically high relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds [4] - The long-term process of China's asset revaluation is influenced by external uncertainties, with a focus on how these uncertainties may shift to certainties, potentially creating opportunities [5] - The trend of foreign capital entering A-shares continues, with net buying trends observed even during periods of external risk [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has shown increasing interest in Hong Kong stocks, with net buying trends expected to continue due to attractive valuations and the benefits from China's AI technology breakthroughs [9] - The proportion of southbound capital in trading has exceeded 30%, indicating a growing influence on Hong Kong's pricing power [9] - The overall market conditions suggest that A-shares may perform better in the second half of the year compared to the first half [10]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of new dividend indices by China Securities Index Company reflects the growing demand for dividend assets in the A-share market, driven by improving dividend behaviors among listed companies [1][4]. Group 1: New Indices and Their Characteristics - The newly released indices include the CSI A500 Dividend Index, CSI A500 Low Volatility Dividend Index, and CSI A500 Dividend Growth Index, aimed at enhancing the dividend index investment ecosystem [1]. - The CSI A500 Dividend Index focuses on high dividend yield stocks, while the Low Volatility Dividend Index selects stocks with high dividends and low volatility, and the Dividend Growth Index emphasizes continuous dividends and high yields [1][2]. - The adjustment cycles for these indices are set at six months, with specific limits on the proportion of adjustments for each index [2]. Group 2: Industry Distribution and Coverage - The CSI A500 Dividend Growth Index covers the most industries, with 11 primary sectors, including Industrial (29.55%), Financial (22.58%), and Consumer Staples (18.75%) [2]. - The CSI A500 Dividend Index and Low Volatility Dividend Index cover 7 and 10 primary sectors respectively, with Financial, Industrial, and Consumer Discretionary being the top sectors [2]. Group 3: Dividend Trends and Market Conditions - In 2024, the total dividend payout by A-share listed companies reached a record high of 2.4 trillion yuan, with an average payout ratio of 37.7%, up by 2.5 percentage points from 2023 [4]. - Over 1,800 companies have paid dividends for five consecutive years, and nearly 800 have done so for ten years, indicating a strong trend in dividend payments [5]. Group 4: Investment Environment and Policy Support - The low interest rate environment enhances the long-term investment value of dividend assets, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to a historical low of 1.82% [6]. - Regulatory policies have been introduced to strengthen dividend constraints for listed companies, including the incorporation of cash dividends into market value management tools [6][7]. - The combination of supply-side incentives for companies and demand-side enthusiasm from investors creates a favorable market environment for dividend assets [7].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs proposed by Trump could generate additional revenue of $600-700 billion per year, requiring the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to rise from 2.2% to 21%[7] - If the tariffs are fully borne by households, the average loss per American household could be $5,400, approximately 5% of median household income[9] - If the tariffs are shared equally between households and corporations, household income could decline by 2.5% and corporate after-tax profits could drop by 15%[9] Group 2: Economic Objectives and Comparisons - The economic objectives of the new tariffs include increasing federal revenue and promoting the return of manufacturing, differing from the 2018 focus on trade balance[10] - By Q4 2024, manufacturing's share of non-residential fixed asset investment is expected to rise to 5.7%, up from 2.7% five years ago[10] Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% due to tariff impacts, while only slightly adjusting the unemployment rate[12] - As of April 7, 2025, S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been revised down by 4.1% for Q1 and 2.5% for Q2, indicating a cautious market outlook[16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy aims to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with actual wages and long-term inflation expectations being critical factors in policy decisions[21] - As of April 7, 2025, the 5-year inflation swap rate is at 2.3%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations[23] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - High tariffs are expected to create both demand and supply shocks, influencing asset allocation strategies, with potential shifts favoring commodities over financial assets in a stagflation scenario[26] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium is currently at 43 basis points, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid tariff-induced inflation risks[29]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 特朗普关税即将落地，全球权益回调，商品多数上涨 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250321-20250329) 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 全球资产估值方面：本周(20250321-20250328)，全球股市ERP方面，本周A股，A股的ERP分位 数有所回升。 全球股市ERP方面，A股资产ERP性价比较高，本周的中国资产的ERP历史分位数 上升，恒生指数和恒生国企的ERP历史分位数分别为14%和13%，处在较低的位置，标普500和 纳斯达克的ERP分位数保持基本稳定，当前ERP分位数最低的欧洲Stoxx600和道琼斯指数， 全 球资产风险调整后收益分位数上，近十年维度上 ，纳斯达克100、标普500和日经225的动态风 险调整后收益在50%分位以下继续下跌，恒生指数动态风险调整收益略微回调至89%，沪深300 风险调整收益分位数从76%回升至80%基本稳定；商品方面，贵金属的风险调整收益分位数维 持96%的高位。 全球资产风险指标：美股散户看多比例小幅上升但仍处低位，A股期权定价依然乐观 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on the characteristics and structural changes of the global stock market, providing quantitative tracking and horizontal comparisons for investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dominates developed markets with a 74% weight in the MSCI developed market index, while China, Taiwan, and India are emerging market powerhouses with 28%, 20%, and close to 20% respectively [2] - The technology and financial sectors are the main drivers of market growth globally, with tech stocks being the most actively traded in major markets [2] - Global capital is increasingly flowing into Asia, with technology and finance sectors being the core drivers of capital market performance [2] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Liquidity - As of January 2025, the total market capitalization of NYSE and NASDAQ exceeds $30 trillion, significantly higher than other global exchanges [3] - The average daily trading volume of US stocks and Shenzhen Stock Exchange exceeds $100 billion, while some Southeast Asian markets have daily trading volumes below $10 million, indicating limited liquidity in certain emerging markets [3] - Over the past five years, the number of global listed companies has remained stable, with developed markets experiencing slower growth, while emerging markets like China and India are the main growth drivers [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Returns - In February 2025, the MSCI emerging market index rose by 0.4%, while the MSCI developed market index fell by 0.8%, indicating mixed performance across global markets [4] - The US market has shown the strongest long-term returns from 2010 to 2024, with the NASDAQ100 achieving an annualized return of 24% driven by tech stocks [5] - Asian markets exhibit significant internal structural differences, with Japan, Taiwan, and India showing annualized returns exceeding 10%, while markets like Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the Philippines have experienced negative returns due to economic slowdowns and capital outflows [5] Group 4: Valuation Trends - Major developed markets are maintaining high valuations, while some emerging markets face significant valuation pressures [6] - As of February 2025, US, Australian, and Taiwanese markets are at historical highs, while markets in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia still have relative valuation advantages [6] - The S&P 500 has surpassed a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5, indicating strong market confidence in US earnings, while other markets like Taiwan and India also maintain high PE ratios [6]

给大家摆一个数据的对比。 今天股市非常给力，上证指数一举突破3400点，创年内新高，而收盘后， A股的总市值也首次突破了99万亿 ，创历史新高，离100万亿的 历史性时刻，仅仅咫尺之遥了。 ...... 上面说到A股总市值已经接近100万亿了，而港股的总市值目前大概在40万亿人民币左右，两会的时候，有位香港的代表提到，内地企业在港股的总 市值占比已经超过了80%，那么也就是说，内地企业的港股总市值大概在30万亿出头，而中概那边大概还有1万多亿，保守点算，国内企业的总市 值，大概在130万亿出头。 而目前，国内居民存款大概在150万亿左右，房地产总市值在300-400万亿之间。 中国的股市总市值：居民存款：地产总市值≈0.8：1：2。 美国那边，美股跌了一波之后，目前总市值在50万亿美刀左右，居民存款20万亿美刀不到，房地产总市值也是50万亿美刀左右， 所以美国那边的三 者比值≈1：0.4：1。 可以看到，和美国相比，或者和全球相比，我们的储蓄率都非常高，地产占居民财富的比值也非常高，这里既有经济发展阶段的问题，也和民族的 特性有关。 而股市的总市值，相当于经济体量来说，还是偏低的。 低基数，也是未来发展的空间 ...