每日经济新闻 WEEKLY国际财经 2026 | 02 | 21 美最高法院6:3裁定 特朗普关税违法 1.4万亿美元收入"落空" 或撕开美国财政黑洞 周 焦点 ◆ 当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院以6:3裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的大规模 关税违法。这场司法终槌直接让美国未来十年超1.4万亿美元关税预期收入"落空"，还留下1750亿美元 的退税悬案。千亿财政窟窿亟待填补，美债收益率应声上涨。面对裁决，特朗普政府紧急唤醒沉睡52年 的法律条款，宣布开征10%的"全球进口关税"。 ◆ 美媒：哈梅内伊及其子成为美国考虑的打击目标，多国敦促在伊朗公民尽快撤离；OpenAI毛利率下 滑，大幅下调"烧钱"目标至6000亿美元；印度AI峰会连爆名场面：两掌门拒绝握手，Anthropic CEO拿 手机念演讲稿；"末日博士"彼得·希夫：金价飙升预示着美国将面临远超2008年的复合型危机；金价重 返5100美元，白银、美油双双涨超9%。 美最高法院6:3裁定特朗普关税违法 1.4万亿美元收入"落空" 或撕开美国财政千亿黑洞 特朗普 图片来源：新华社发（李源清摄） 当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院以 ...

Core Insights - BlackRock, a major asset management firm with approximately $14 trillion in assets under management, submitted its 13F filing for Q4 2025, reflecting significant changes in its U.S. equity holdings [1][2] - As of the end of 2025, BlackRock's total U.S. equity holdings reached $5.92 trillion, an increase of about $210 billion or 3.67% from the previous quarter [1][2] Holdings Summary - The total market value of BlackRock's holdings increased to $5.92 trillion, with inflows representing 1.48% of total market value [2] - In Q4 2025, BlackRock initiated positions in 247 stocks, increased holdings in 3,309 stocks, sold out of 165 stocks, and reduced holdings in 1,546 stocks [2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 30.41% of the total portfolio, with Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft being the largest positions [5] Sector Focus - BlackRock's portfolio weight has shifted towards the AI industry, with significant increases in holdings related to AI from storage to computing [2][3] - The top five increased positions included Alphabet (GOOGL and GOOG), Eli Lilly, Micron, and Apple, indicating a strong focus on technology and healthcare sectors [3][4] Performance of Key Stocks - Nvidia remains the largest holding with over 19 billion shares valued at approximately $362.5 billion, followed by Apple and Microsoft with market values of about $313.9 billion and $291.1 billion, respectively [5][6] - The top five reduced positions included SPDR S&P 500 ETF options, ServiceNow, and AT&T, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio management [4] Future Outlook - BlackRock anticipates that the structural market trends in AI will continue into 2026, with a gradual expansion from hardware infrastructure to traditional and emerging industries applying AI technologies [7] - Investors are advised to monitor valuation levels and the alignment of cash flow improvements with company fundamentals, as the AI sector remains dynamic despite potential volatility risks [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year remains high due to structural pressures on the economy and employment [1][16] - The U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate unexpectedly declined to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating potential economic risks [1][16] - The K-shaped economic divergence in the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with middle and low-income groups facing limited consumption capacity due to high inflation and stagnant wages [1][16] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overseas markets experienced significant movements during the Spring Festival, with oil prices leading among major assets due to the Iranian situation, while software stocks faced pressure from AI concerns [2] - The U.S. stock market was buoyed by earnings expectations and a recovery in risk appetite, despite concerns over potential fiscal pressures from the ruling on tariffs [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations and developments in U.S.-China relations, are influencing global risk preferences and commodity prices [7][8] - The upcoming visit of former President Trump to China is seen as a critical moment for risk management and rule reconstruction between the two largest economies [8] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling that tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal represents a significant setback, leading to the potential return of approximately $175 billion in tariffs, which could exacerbate U.S. fiscal pressures [11][13] - Trump's administration is responding with temporary global tariffs under Section 122, which may reduce the impact of previous tariffs [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns over excessive investment in AI, the current adjustment in the AI sector is viewed as healthy, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in scarce hardware and quality model targets [5] - Gold is expected to regain its pricing value as volatility stabilizes, while oil prices may improve as supply-demand dynamics shift in the first quarter [7]

格隆汇2月21日｜SK海力士今日在与高盛集团举行的线上会议中披露了一系列关键市场研判，明确指出 在AI客户强劲需求与供应增长受限的双重作用下，内存价格预计将在整个2026年保持上涨态势。SK海 力士还透露，其DRAM和NAND产品的库存水平目前维持在极为紧张的约四周左右。这一库存水位意味 着供应商在定价谈判中的话语权正显著增强。SK海力士进一步明确表示，今年没有任何一家客户能够 完全满足其对内存的需求，无论是哪家客户。 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock submitted its Q4 2025 13F report, showing a total U.S. equity holding value of $5.92 trillion, an increase of approximately $210 billion or 3.67% from the previous quarter [1] - The firm's holdings have shifted towards the AI industry, with significant increases in weight for AI-related stocks across storage and computing sectors [1] - In Q4 2025, BlackRock established new positions in 247 U.S. stocks, increased holdings in 3,309 stocks, while liquidating 165 stocks and reducing positions in 1,546 stocks [1] Group 2 - The top five increased positions included Alphabet-A, Alphabet-C, Eli Lilly, Micron, and Apple, with Micron seeing a 7.33% increase in holdings [2] - The top five reduced positions were SPDR S&P 500 ETF call options, ServiceNow, Strategy, AT&T, and Kellanova, with the largest decrease in SPDR S&P 500 call options [2] - The top ten holdings remained stable, with Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet-A, Broadcom, Alphabet-C, Meta, Tesla, and Eli Lilly collectively accounting for 30.41% of total holdings [2] Group 3 - BlackRock views AI as a transformative technology revolution that is still ongoing, expecting structural trends in the AI sector to continue into 2026 [3] - The firm anticipates a shift from hardware infrastructure to more applications of AI technology in traditional and emerging industries [3] - Investors are advised to monitor the alignment of valuation levels with cash flow improvements in the tech growth sector, particularly in AI, despite some stocks appearing overvalued [3]

Group 1 - The storage chip market is entering a "seller's market" due to a surge in AI demand and supply constraints, with SK Hynix indicating that it cannot fully meet customer demand this year, leading to inevitable price increases [1][2] - SK Hynix has provided clear guidance on price trends, expecting storage prices to continue rising throughout the year driven by strong demand from AI clients and limited supply growth [2][10] - The current supply-demand tension is at a high point, with all end markets unable to fully satisfy their storage needs, and SK Hynix's own inventory levels being extremely low, around 4 weeks [3][11] Group 2 - The company emphasizes that the likelihood of meaningful double-booking is low, as customers understand that short-term capacity cannot significantly increase, which will further drive up prices [2][10] - Server customers have healthy inventory levels, while PC and mobile customers are seeing a decline in inventory, indicating a shift in bargaining power towards suppliers [3][11] - Discussions regarding long-term contracts with major clients are increasing due to the enhanced bargaining power of suppliers, as no customer can fully meet their storage needs [3][11] Group 3 - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity for 2026 is already sold out, and meaningful adjustments to production plans for HBM and standard DRAM are difficult, but this tight supply situation may benefit HBM negotiations in 2027 [4][12] - The focus for SK Hynix this year is on enhancing 1b nm capacity to support HBM3E and HBM4, with significant migration to 1c nm for standard DRAM expected by the end of the year [6][13] - Capital expenditures are expected to exceed last year, with a disciplined approach focusing on high-return investments in HBM and standard DRAM, while NAND investments will remain stable [7][14]

马年春节，全球市场最大"黑天鹅"落地，炸出了贵金属的"超级大红包"！ 当地时间2月20日，美国联邦最高法院以6:3的关键投票，作出里程碑式裁决：正式认定特朗普政府实施的大规模全球关 税，超出总统法定权限，相关政策自始无效！ 这一裁决，堪称美国贸易政策的"分水岭"。它不仅封死了总统"绕开国会、任性加税"的捷径，更瞬间点燃了市场热情： 美股三大指数集体上演"低开高走"，道琼斯指数收涨0.47%，站稳49625点；标普500指数涨0.69%，报6909点；纳斯达克 收涨0.90%，收报22886点。 贵金属更是迎来狂欢，黄金大涨2.66%，一举冲破5100美元大关，COMEX白银期货更疯狂，单日飙升8.9%，报85.19美 元/盎司。 01"无序加税"终于剧终了 回溯过往，特朗普政府自2025年1月上台后，便援引IEEPA法案，以行政令形式绕过国会，多次单方面推出一系列大规模 全球关税措施，此举不仅遭到美国12个州及上千家企业联合起诉，更因其无明确期限、反复多变的变更、无税率上限的 无序性，持续困扰企业经营决策、压制市场风险偏好，成为美股震荡走弱的核心症结之一。 此次最高法院的裁决，强有力封杀了总统无序加税的路径， ...

中国在2025年12月18日启动海南自由贸易港全岛封关，这步棋把岛屿变成海关特殊监管区，货物从境外进来零关税，人员资金流动更顺畅。 进入内地得加工增值30%才能免税，这套政策直接拉动物流和加工。 洋浦港吞吐量快速上升，外贸集装箱中转量跳增213%，国际航线达到85条。东南亚货物直航海南，省去绕道的中转环节，航程短6天，成本低15%。 企业把澳洲牛肉运来加工成牛排，销往内地避开关税壁垒。三亚免税销售额首周破亿，单日1.06亿元，比去年同期多56%。 外资企业蜂拥而至，前三季度使用外资增长超四成。新设企业超8000家，年均涨43.7%。 新加坡转口贸易额下滑11.3%，创十年最大跌幅。中印贸易转口量跌23%，泰国散货降32%。第三季度GDP增速从4.8%到2%，航运股跌6.8%。高端金融物流 人才80多人转上海或洋浦。 企业把亚太总部迁海南，享15%企业所得税。跨国公司不再绕第三方中转。海南早期邀新加坡共建示范区，但新方顾虑美国，错过机会。现在门槛高，融入 难。小国外交困境显现。 新加坡总理黄循财2025年12月21日在加拿大广播公司采访中，说不允许企业借新加坡规避美国芯片出口管制，已设机制便于美方调查企业。这等 ...

Group 1 - The trade friction between the US and China, which began in 2018, has led to significant global attention, with many experts suggesting that the US underestimated China's economic resilience and supply chain strength [1][3] - The US initially imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, followed by additional tariffs on Chinese goods, but these measures resulted in increased costs for American consumers and farmers, while China successfully found alternative markets [3][4] - China's trade surplus with the US is projected to reach a new high of $1 trillion by 2025, indicating that the US's strategy to reshape its manufacturing base through tariffs has not been effective [4][6] Group 2 - Experts argue that the US's inconsistent policies have led to a perception that China is a more reliable partner, causing other countries to shift their trade relationships towards China [6][9] - The trade war has prompted China to enhance its technological self-sufficiency, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, as the US's restrictions have spurred increased domestic investment [3][11] - The global trade landscape has shifted, with countries initially aligning with the US now adopting a more cautious approach, recognizing China's strength and resilience in the face of trade pressures [9][11] Group 3 - The US's talent outflow, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence, has been exacerbated by policies that inadvertently push skilled professionals back to China [7] - China's strategic response to the trade war includes diversifying its markets and strengthening economic ties with emerging markets, which enhances its global influence [11] - The ongoing trade tensions have highlighted the vulnerabilities in the US economy, particularly its reliance on Chinese manufacturing, as the US struggles to find alternatives for many Chinese imports [6][11]