1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microscopically, there is a long - term bullish view on copper, with a strong price trend. However, increased macro - level disturbance factors lead to greater price fluctuations. The macro situation includes the US December non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate increase hitting a new low since 2020, and the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero and the first cut expected in June. The US Supreme Court has not announced a verdict on Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling will be on January 14. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months [7]. - Fundamentally, the short - term domestic spot driving logic has temporarily weakened, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. The global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in social inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the global total inventory was 950,300 tons, an increase of 44,900 tons from January 1. The domestic social inventory increased by 39,400 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 15,300 tons. The domestic spot discount has narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, indicating that the decline in price has led to a rebound in downstream demand. The LME 0 - 3 premium has expanded from $38.60/ton on January 2 to $41.94/ton on January 9 [7]. - In the long term, the fundamentals still support the copper price. The port inventory of copper concentrates has continued to decline, dropping rapidly from 680,000 tons on December 26 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The long - term TC for imported copper concentrates in China in 2026 is $0/ton, significantly lower than the 2025 level, which indicates a tight supply of copper concentrates. China is preventing blind investment and disorderly construction in smelters and encouraging large backbone enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations to improve industrial competitiveness, which may also lead to structural changes in the smelting industry. From the consumption side, the long - term consumption recovery expectation remains strong, and the consumption logic of emerging industries such as AI computing centers is constantly strengthening. Giants like OpenAI and Microsoft are increasing infrastructure investment, and many places in the US are promoting gigawatt - scale cluster projects, with single - project investment exceeding $10 billion, focusing on the deployment of high - density liquid - cooling technology. At the same time, local US governments are attracting investment through incentive policies such as tax exemptions and fee - for - tax deductions. However, policy uncertainties brought about by the mid - term elections and the Fed's leadership change may affect the industry's investment rhythm and implementation process. In addition, new energy vehicles and global power grid upgrades remain the core driving forces, and power grid renovations in Europe and the US and the expansion of the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia continue to contribute to the increase [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term rigid replenishment of downstream enterprises provides a bottom support for prices. Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. Currently, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is particularly important to find a good safety margin for buying. In terms of spread trading, the current profit margin for spot exports has narrowed, so be cautious with internal - external reverse arbitrage [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 20%, and the SHFE copper volatility has reached about 25%, showing a significant rebound from the previous week [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened marginally. The spread between SHFE 01 - 02 contracts was - 200 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, lower than 560 yuan/ton on December 31. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 premium reaching $41.94/ton on January 9, higher than $38.60/ton on January 2. The near - end C structure of COMEX copper has expanded, with the price spread between the February and March 2026 contracts being - $68.34/ton on January 9, significantly wider than - $55.12/ton on January 2 [20]. - **Position**: The positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased, with the SHFE copper position increasing by 63,900 lots to 681,600 lots, while the LME copper position has decreased [21]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, from 77,500 lots on December 24 to 72,600 lots on January 2. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises has decreased from 59,800 lots on December 30 to 57,900 lots on January 6 [27]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, from a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31 to a discount of 45 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026. The Yangshan Port copper premium has declined, from $51/ton on December 31 to $42/ton on January 9. The US copper premium has remained at a high level. The Rotterdam copper premium has increased from $185/ton on January 2 to $200/ton on January 9, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained at $187.5/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, from 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026, to 950,300 tons on January 8. The domestic social inventory has increased, from 238,900 tons on January 1 to 273,800 tons on January 8, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The bonded area inventory has increased from 75,500 tons on December 31 to 78,800 tons on January 8. The COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, rising from 499,800 short tons on January 2 to 518,000 short tons on January 9. The LME copper inventory has decreased, from 155,300 tons on January 2 to 139,000 tons on January 9 [38]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 02 contract has declined and is at a low level in the same period of history. The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has fluctuated, indicating that the overseas spot lacks a driving logic [39]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrates**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year. According to customs data, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased, from 496,000 tons on January 2 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The processing fee for copper concentrates has remained weak, and the smelting loss has decreased from 1,988 yuan/ton on December 31 to 2,016 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [45]. - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has increased. In November, the import of recycled copper was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has expanded and is higher than the break - even point, and the import loss of recycled copper has turned into a profit [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month. In November, the import was 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the processing fee for blister copper has recovered, with the southern processing fee at 1,500 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at $95/ton [55]. - **Refined Copper**: The domestic production of refined copper has increased year - on - year. In November, the production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The import volume of refined copper has decreased. In November, the import was 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The loss of copper spot imports has narrowed, from a loss of 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 to a loss of 981.04 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [58]. 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate and strip foil enterprises have rebounded but are at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of January 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has declined marginally [62]. - **Profit**: The processing fee for copper rods has rebounded but is at a low level in the same period of history. As of January 9, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 410 yuan/ton, higher than 240 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fee for copper tubes has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period of history. On January 9, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,368 yuan/ton, higher than 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fees for copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils have remained stable and are at a low level [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a moderately low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to decline [68]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: In November, the finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased [71]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual consumption of copper has performed well. From January to November, the cumulative consumption was 14.5615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. From January to November, the apparent consumption was 14.6431 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. Industries such as power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption. Among them, the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to November, the cumulative power grid investment was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.90% [78]. - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%. In November, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [79].

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The A-share market has shown significant gains this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component up 4.40%, the ChiNext Index up 3.89%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 10.19% [1] - Institutions expect the market's momentum to continue in the short term, but caution is advised regarding a potential cooling period after mid-January leading up to the Spring Festival [1] - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct driver of the A-share rally since late December 2025, with a notable increase in margin trading balances and overall trading volume [3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with different sectors favored depending on market style (growth vs. defensive) [1] - The commercial aerospace sector has seen substantial gains and remains a focus for investors, despite potential profit-taking pressures [2] - The robotics sector has attracted significant capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest, while the commercial aerospace sector is transitioning to a "theme expansion" phase [4] - Recommendations include focusing on resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing pricing power [6]

Group 1 - Jia Mei Packaging announced that its stock will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a price increase of 230.48% from December 17, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [2][16] - Guosheng Technology also stated that its stock will resume trading on January 12, 2026, with a cumulative price increase of 370.20% from October 31, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [2][17] - Tianpu Co. announced its stock will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a significant price increase of 718.39% from August 22, 2025, to December 30, 2025 [2][18] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce held a national business work conference on January 10-11, 2026, focusing on optimizing the consumption upgrade policy for 2026 [4] - The conference emphasized eight key areas of work, including boosting consumption, enhancing the modern market system, and promoting trade innovation [4] - The conference aims to align actions with the central government's economic strategies and enhance international trade cooperation [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Supreme Court announced on January 9, 2026, that it would not make a ruling on the tariff case initiated by the Trump administration [5] - The tariffs were implemented without congressional approval under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [5] Group 4 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm employment increase of 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 73,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [6] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in January [6] Group 5 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Ministry of Finance announced new regulations increasing the whistleblower reward for securities and futures violations to a maximum of 1 million yuan [8] - The reward structure has been significantly enhanced, with the maximum for major violations raised from 100,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan [8] Group 6 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) reported that central enterprises achieved over 11 trillion yuan in revenue in strategic emerging industries by November 2025 [11] - The SASAC also noted that 116 strategic reorganizations involving 229 first-level enterprises have been initiated [11] Group 7 - Shanghai's government released a three-year action plan (2026-2028) to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing [13] - The plan includes initiatives for low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots, aiming to overcome development bottlenecks in these sectors [13] Group 8 - The Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange launched a rare earth price index to provide timely and accurate price references for the industry [14] - The index is based on trading data and aims to reflect the overall price trends of rare earth products [14] Group 9 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026 [15] - The VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% during 2026, with a complete cancellation planned for 2027 [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the investment strategy for 2026 is shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors as the main investment themes [1][2] - Multiple public funds agree that the driving force for the A-share market in 2026 will transition from valuation expansion in 2025 to profit improvement, with "profit recovery" being a key term in their strategies [2][3] - Institutions expect a clear support logic for profit recovery in 2026, driven by a potentially loose macro policy and a gradual economic recovery, alongside a trend of residents shifting assets towards equities [2][3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly AI, and cyclical recovery sectors are gaining attention, with public funds focusing on these areas in their 2026 investment strategies [3][4] - AI is highlighted as a focal point within the technology sector, with institutions emphasizing hardware innovation and opportunities in the domestic semiconductor industry [3][4] - The cyclical sector is primarily focused on chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with institutions identifying opportunities in supply constraints and demand recovery [3][4] Group 3 - There is a notable increase in asset allocation content in the 2026 public fund strategy reports, with "fixed income+" products gaining popularity among institutions [4] - Public funds predict that the scale of "fixed income+" products will continue to expand in 2026, as these products balance risk control and market opportunity capture through dynamic asset allocation [4]

2026 年 1 月 11 日 联合研究 光研集萃（2026 年 1 月第 1 期） ——光大周度观点一览 要点 策略周度观点：寻找好春季行情中的持续性亮点 对春季行情保持耐心，重点关注成长与小盘风格。在政策支持与产业热点频出的 共同作用下，本周市场延续了 12 月末以来的强势表现。短期我们认为市场热度 仍有望持续，不过需要关注 1 月中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。从历史 规律来看，上证指数当年 1 月的涨跌幅与上一年 12 月的涨幅呈一定的"此消彼 长"特征，同时春节之前市场交易热度也将有所下行。预计春节之后市场或许会 迎来新一轮上行动力。对于春季行情，投资者应保持耐心。 结构层面上，成长风格与小盘风格通常在春季行情中明显占优，短期建议关注成 长与顺周期两条主线。成长主线建议关注商业航天、半导体产业链、AI 等方向； 顺周期主线建议关注有色金属、零售、社会服务等方向。 本周重点行业 计算机：整体来看，中国 AI 应用具备三大机遇：1）实业深耕：基于我国完整的 工业体系，为 AI 的发展提供高价值的现实世界数据/应用场景/能源供应，重点 关注拥有行业 Knowhow 和数据的公司；2）外展出海：AI 工 ...

Market Review - The A-share market started strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record 16 consecutive days of gains, reflecting a rising market risk appetite, with growth and small-cap styles outperforming [2][3] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, with margin trading activity also high, as the margin balance surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2][4] - Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, brain-computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion have shown significant performance, alongside rising prices in related commodities like non-ferrous metals [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bull market may continue, with the A-share market entering a spring buying window, supported by better-than-expected PMI and inflation data from December [3][5] - The influx of external funds and increased willingness of market participants to invest are expected to sustain market momentum, with notable inflows from financing and foreign capital [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming events in the tech sector, particularly around the Spring Festival, which could further enhance market risk appetite [3][5] Sector Allocation - Focus on the expansion of themes in the technology sector, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, robotics, domestic substitution, and nuclear fusion [5] - Beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" trend and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, are also highlighted as areas of interest [5]

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 大势与风格 5 | | 中观行业与景气 7 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 9 | | 风险提示 10 | tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 11 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies the second round of the commodity supercycle driven by the expansion of dollar credit cracks during the Kondratiev depression phase, suggesting that this phase will enhance the monetary attributes of commodities, particularly gold and industrial metals, as safe assets amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1][9][10] - Historical patterns indicate a rotation in the commodity supercycle: gold rises first, followed by industrial metals, oil, and finally agricultural products, with each phase influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions [2][14][16] - Current oil prices are deemed undervalued due to strategic oil inventories reaching historical lows, and a potential increase in oil prices is anticipated if the geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, eases by 2026 [3][21][23] Group 2 - The report outlines three key signals to watch for a potential reversal in oil prices: willingness of major oil-producing countries to negotiate production cuts, effective execution of production cuts, and strengthening of reduction agreements over time [4][27][28] - The analysis predicts that 2026 will mark a turning point towards prosperity, with a significant rise in global oil prices expected if the geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a renewed focus on commodities as safe assets [5][37] - Industry allocation recommendations include focusing on metals (gold, silver, copper, lithium), consumer sectors benefiting from wealth return and improved consumption tendencies, and high-end manufacturing sectors with export advantages [5][39]

转自：中国商报 本周（1月5日至9日）是2026年的第一个交易周，A股市场量价齐升，收获了实打实的2026年"开门红"。 上证指数延续去年末连阳走势，频创新高。深证成指突破14000点，创业板指、上证50、沪深300等也均创多年新高。超4700家股票周度累计上涨，为近期 表现最好的一周。 （来源：中国商报） 业内人士提醒，对于投资者而言，业绩预告仅为初步核算结果，具体数据需以正式年报为准。随着年报披露季的推进，业绩分化格局或进一步显现，资本 市场的价值发现功能将持续发挥作用。 中国上市公司协会近期发布的《2025年A股上市公司市值表现报告》显示，截至2025年年底，A股上市公司共5469家，总市值123万亿元。其中，2025年新 增上市公司116家，2025年1月1日前上市的存量公司5353家，2025年存量上市公司总市值同比增长22.5%。从总体来看，过去一年，A股上市公司市值持续 修复，资本市场稳健上涨。 | ↓日期 | 内地 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上涨家数 | 亚盘宝数 | Nist 2 3 7 | | 2026-01-09 | 4.749 | 40 | ...

中泰证券发布研究报告称，短期内市场或延续上行趋势，遇震荡行情，投资者可把握逢低布局机遇，抓 住春节前的重要窗口期配置价值。从板块配置角度看，机器人方向在本轮拉升过程中持续获得资金净流 入，板块上涨并未出现明显资金背离，趋势尚未结束，仍是当前阶段最重点建议关注的主线方向。商业 航天板块资金流入态势同样强劲，但当前交易拥挤度已处于历史高位，板块运行或由前期主升阶段逐步 转向第二阶段的"主题扩散"行情，操作上需更加注重节奏与分化。此外，可控核聚变、体育与消费者服 务、有色金属等方向亦出现资金持续流入迹象，若1月中旬市场局部出现震荡调整，上述板块有望成为 值得重点布局的结构性方向。 ...