文/李悦 2025年4月初，一场由美国单方面挑起的关税风暴席卷全球，且战争似才开场。政策制定者面临诸 多难题，内需能否抵御外需压力、关税战长期化有哪些储备工具等成关注焦点。 资本市场上，危机在全球蔓延。美股动荡、美债遭抛售、美元指数创新低，资金涌入致黄金价格屡创 新高，市场正在以脚投票的方式表达对美国的信任危机。而中国资本市场展现韧性，A股在4月7 日"黑色星期一"后持续反弹，期间上证指数累计涨幅超6%。 "关税战"走向不明，投资者决策困局重重。美股跌到底了吗？黄金的强劲走势是否还能持续？A股命 运又将如何？哪些资产可能成为新一代"硬通货"？ 围绕上述问题，和讯网对话清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩。 田轩表示，特朗普的关税政策使美国经济不确定性增加，资金逃离美国资产是合理避险，开始寻求新 的避险港湾。若关税战持续，黄金、稀有金属、优质房地产、高信用评级债券和国债等将成为"硬通 货"。 谈及A股，他认为长期来看，A股处于估值低位，受科技创新和内需扩大的双重驱动将稳健向上，科 技、新能源等新兴产业板块配置价值高。 01 关税博弈从贸易摩擦转向战略对抗 和讯网：您判断关税战会长期存在吗？若长期 ...

Economic Performance - Shanghai's GDP reached 12,735.06 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and the last quarter by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The economic performance is characterized by "six fast and six stable" indicators, with rapid growth in finance, real estate, investment, foreign trade, information services, and transportation [2] Key Industries - The financial sector's value added grew by 9.4%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sector increased by 13%, contributing 1.5 percentage points [3][4] - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with new housing sales up by 10.5% and second-hand housing transactions increasing by 51% [3] Emerging Sectors - The industrial sector saw a steady recovery, with industrial production increasing by 3.7% and strategic emerging industries also growing by 3.7%, particularly in new generation information technology, high-end equipment, and new energy [4][10] - High-tech industrial output rose by 14.8%, indicating a strong performance in emerging sectors [9] Investment Trends - Industrial investment in Shanghai grew by 22.5% in Q1, with significant increases in investment in integrated circuits and biomedicine [10] - The total investment in fixed assets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with emerging industries accounting for 40% of the projects [9] Future Outlook - Shanghai aims to enhance its core functions and international competitiveness through the "Five Centers" initiative, which is expected to further drive economic growth [5] - The city is focusing on new fields and industries, with a target for the intelligent computing cloud industry to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic outlook in China, highlighting the effectiveness of domestic policies in stabilizing the stock market and the overall economy amidst external pressures [4][7]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][9]. - The retail sales growth rate increased from 3.7% to 4.6% year-on-year in the same period, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4][9]. Market Stabilization - The Chinese government has implemented measures to stabilize the stock market, foreign exchange market, and real estate market, with the central bank providing re-loans to support the "national team" in stabilizing the stock market [4][6][7]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated but recovered to around 7.3 against the USD, demonstrating resilience in the currency market [7]. Consumer Stimulus - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales in various sectors, particularly in electronics, with the inclusion of mobile phones and computers in the program [9][10]. - Future consumption stimulus should focus on service sectors such as tourism, hotels, and dining, as these areas show potential for growth [6][10]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is under pressure, with both exports and real estate facing simultaneous declines for the first time [7][8]. - While some regions show signs of recovery, a nationwide stabilization in the real estate market has not yet occurred, necessitating continued support for developers [8].

Group 1 - As of April 17, the ETF market size has exceeded 4 trillion yuan for the first time, with stock ETFs dominating at 2.94 trillion yuan, accounting for 73.54% of the total [3][4] - In the current market environment, essential consumer goods, assets with high safety margins, dividends, and gold as safe-haven assets are recommended for attention, alongside technology assets as a long-term investment focus [3][4] - The global first humanoid robot half marathon was held in Beijing, showcasing technological strength and indicating a growing interest in robotics among public funds, with several robotics stocks seeing increased holdings [4] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, Hubei Province's import and export value reached 174.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, surpassing the national average growth rate [8] - The Tianjin Free Trade Zone has contributed significantly to foreign investment and trade, accounting for 26% of new foreign investment enterprises and 38% of total imports and exports in the city [8] - The Hong Kong government is set to strengthen cooperation with Zhejiang Province, aiming for mutual benefits and contributions to national high-quality development [9] Group 3 - A total of 650 private equity institutions have conducted research on 204 A-share listed companies in April, with the electronics sector being the most researched [11][12] - The IPO market shows a new trend, with only 47 companies terminating their IPO reviews this year, a significant decrease of 61% compared to the same period last year [12] - The commercial aerospace industry is receiving support from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is engaging with leading companies in the sector to discuss capital market services [12] Group 4 - The personal pension system in China has expanded nationwide, but there are still issues with participation rates that need to be addressed to enhance its attractiveness [18] - The establishment of a provincial enterprise annuity alliance in Shandong marks a significant step in the development of enterprise annuities in the region [18] Group 5 - The Shanghai online real estate platform reports a new wave of housing supply, with six projects approved for listing, totaling approximately 89,968 square meters [19] - As of March 31, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, with solar power capacity growing by 43.4% year-on-year [20]

Group 1 - The company has approved the use of temporarily idle raised funds for cash management, not exceeding RMB 380 million, ensuring the safety of the funds and the normal operation of investment projects and main business [2] - The board and supervisory board of the company have provided clear consent for this decision, and the sponsor, Zhejiang Merchants Securities Co., Ltd., has issued a verification opinion [2] - The company redeemed a structured deposit purchased from China Merchants Bank, which matured on January 17, 2025 [3]

（原标题：今日，重要发布会，事关经济！） 重要新闻 多项经济数据将公布，国新办今日上午10时将举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年一季度国民经济运行情况。 中国人民银行会同金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合印发《金融"五篇大文章"总体统计制度（试行）》。 工业和信息化部组织制定的强制性国家标准《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》日前发布。 3．外交部发言人林剑15日表示，消博会、广交会、中国发展高层论坛等活动的成功举行，展现了各方加强经贸合作，抵御单边主义、保护主义的 决心和信心。中国是世界的市场、各国的机遇，将以高质量发展和高水平对外开放为世界经济注入稳定性和正能量。 4．社会保险基金监管局发布2024年全国职业年金基金市场化投资运营情况。截至2024年年底，全国31个省（自治区、直辖市）、新疆生产建设兵 团和中央单位职业年金基金投资运营规模3.11万亿元。自2019年2月启动市场化投资运营以来，全国职业年金年均投资收益率4.42%。 5．4月15日，海关总署召开进出口企业、行业协会商会座谈会。会上，进出口企业和行业协会商会负责人介绍了企业、行业生产运行和稳订单拓 市场情况，并提出政策措施建议。大家一致表示，坚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In different bull - bear stages of the bond market, low - grade credit bonds show different performance patterns. In bull markets, low - grade urban investment bonds have the highest narrowing amplitude of valuation yields, and in bear markets, low - grade bonds are relatively "resilient" [1][2]. - In response to the US tariff adjustment policy, from the national to local levels, efforts are being made to support the development of "integrated domestic and foreign trade" market entities and help foreign - trade enterprises expand the domestic market. In the short term, the market may fluctuate due to tariff policies, but in the long term, the impact of tariffs may gradually decrease [3][42]. - This week, the bond market was volatile. Most varieties of financial bonds had a decline in valuation yields compared with last week, and most credit spreads widened. It is not recommended to trade second - tier perpetual bonds too much currently, and attention can be paid to AMC company - related bonds [59][60]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Different Bull - Bear Stages of Low - Grade Credit Bonds - **Bull Market**: Low - grade urban investment bonds have the highest narrowing amplitude of valuation yields, with the order of AA > AA+ > AAA. For example, from 2022/12/15 to 2023/6/14, the narrowing amplitudes of the yields of 3 - year urban investment bonds of AAA, AA+, and AA were 81BP, 95BP, and 104BP respectively, while the narrowing amplitude of the 3 - year Treasury bond yield was 30BP. This is due to the reduced risk of credit bonds and the high market risk appetite [1][13]. - **Bear Market**: The narrowing amplitude of the yields of AA - rated urban investment bonds is generally lower than that of AAA and AA+ grades (except for a short - term and rapid bear - market stage in 2024/9/23 - 2024/9/29). High - grade credit bonds have better liquidity, and investors have a high demand for coupon assets, so low - grade bonds are relatively "resilient" [2][13]. - **Individual Bonds in Bear Market**: The individual bonds with narrowing valuations in the bear market are mainly concentrated in real estate and some regions with large debt scales. For example, in the bear - market stage from 2025/3/18 to 2025/4/7, many central and state - owned enterprise entities' bond valuations narrowed, which may be because investors thought the bear market would not last long and high - coupon credit bonds were attractive [11]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Local Governments Support "Integrated Domestic and Foreign Trade" Market Entities to Cope with Tariff Impacts - The US has continuously adjusted tariff policies, and China has taken a series of counter - measures and internal economic - stabilizing policies. From the national to local levels, efforts are being made to support the development of "integrated domestic and foreign trade" market entities [22][23][26]. - Fujian Province has taken the lead in formulating a specific implementation plan, including establishing a key - enterprise contact mechanism, organizing foreign - trade enterprises to participate in domestic exhibitions, and providing financial and policy support to help enterprises expand the domestic market and international market [27][32]. 3.2.2 Investment Recommendations - **Focus on "Economic Powerhouses"**: Pay attention to provinces with good development momentum and debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc. Their provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms are relatively stable, and the duration can be appropriately extended to 5 years [41][42]. - **Regions with Debt - Resolution Policies**: Focus on regions where significant debt - resolution policies or substantial capital inflows have occurred, such as Chongqing, Tianjin, etc. Consider bonds with a duration of 3 - 5 years [42][43]. - **Cities with Strong Industrial Bases**: Pay attention to prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, such as some cities in Guangxi, Hubei, etc. Choose bonds with a duration of 2 - 3 years [46][47]. 3.3 Financial Bonds Weekly Viewpoint - **Overall Performance**: This week, the bond market was volatile. Most varieties of financial bonds had a decline in valuation yields compared with last week, and most credit spreads widened. The widening amplitudes of insurance perpetual bonds and bank second - tier perpetual bonds were larger, while the credit spreads of some bonds such as securities firms' ordinary bonds and short - term financing bonds narrowed [59]. - **Investment Suggestions**: It is not recommended to trade second - tier perpetual bonds too much currently. For short - term commercial financial bonds, partial profit - taking can be considered. Pay attention to 2Y/AAA - and AA+ commercial financial bonds. Also, pay attention to AMC company - related bonds, as the AMC financial bond market is expected to expand [59][60]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - The report provides charts on the issuance of credit bonds, financial bonds, the subscription of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds, the issuance costs, the review and registration of credit bonds, and the completion of registration by the credit bond association, but no specific data analysis is given in the summary part [67][68][72]. 3.5 Secondary Market Observation 3.5.1 "Volume" of Secondary Transactions - The report provides a chart showing the trading volume and number of transactions in the secondary market over time, but no specific data analysis is given in the summary part [83][85]. 3.5.2 "Price" of Secondary Transactions No relevant content provided.

【笔记20250414— "择机"进度 0/3（-3月金融和出口数据超预期-股市偏强+资金面均衡宽松=涨跌不一)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 一般性的工作，可以靠经验去线性外推，但投资是人与人之间心理的博弈，它的思维方式不是线性的，而是逆人性的。如果你的经验还只是停留在对市场 本身的回顾上，而没有提炼为更加客观的、能够战胜人性弱点的投资体系，那么，经验就只会成为你前进的绊脚石，而不是腾飞的垫脚石。 ——笔记哥《应对》 昨晚金融时报揭秘"择机"三大隐藏关卡：第一关：经济虚弱（当前状态：秀肌肉）；第二关：财政氪金（当前状态：紧钱包）；第三关：A市ICU（当前 状态：KTV）。因此目前来看降准降息大礼包还在排队，进度0/3。 近期交易主线："强现实、弱预期"。美国：3月经济数据仍显韧性、通胀数据亦低于预期，但通胀预期数据创下1981年以来新高。中国：3月金融数据和出 口数据均超预期，但债市反应冷漠：虽说现在成绩好，就怕毕业即失业。 央行公开市场开展430亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有935亿元逆回购到期，净回笼505亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率小幅上行，DR007回到1.7%上方。 | | | | 银 ...

南方财经全媒体记者郭晓洁 21世纪经济报道记者李德尚玉 实习生 余忠梅 广州报道 随着绿色金融市场的快速发展，相关的资讯和数据变得越来越丰富。绿色金融周报从宏观视角和机构绿色金融实践等角度，关 注绿色金融领域的最新前沿动态，追踪绿色金融市场的最新趋势，为绿色金融相关参与方提供决策依据和参考。 1、深交所：绿色低碳领域上市公司市值占比达20% 4月7日，深交所发布《深圳证券交易所绿色债券白皮书》（以下简称《绿债白皮书》），梳理总结近年来深交所绿色债券市场 发展情况和典型案例，引导帮助企业用好用足债券市场工具推动自身绿色低碳发展，助力加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，厚 植高质量发展的绿色底色。 《绿债白皮书》系统呈现了深交所的整体政策框架、绿色金融相关实践、典型案例和发展趋势四个方面的内容。在具体举措 上，主要从三个方面进行：一是支持符合绿色可持续发展理念的上市公司集群化发展；二是扩展绿色金融产品序列，构建低碳 可持续投融资产品配置平台；三是深化境内外合作，合力培育绿色可持续发展市场生态，多措并举推动绿色低碳产业发展。在 实践成果方面，截至2025年3月末，绿色低碳领域上市公司市值占比达20%，累计发行可持续主题债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the new tariff policy announced by President Trump, which includes a 10% baseline tariff on all countries and higher personalized tariffs on specific trade partners, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and reshape the global economic order [1][3]. Tariff Policy Details - The new tariff policy includes a 10% baseline tariff effective from April 5, 2023, and personalized tariffs that will take effect on April 9, 2023. Countries like China will face a 34% tariff, while others such as the EU, Vietnam, and Japan will see tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% [1][3]. - The policy is expected to have far-reaching effects on global trade, potentially increasing inflation and slowing economic growth in the U.S. [3]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, global markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.84% on April 3 and an additional 5.97% on April 4, marking a total decline of 10% over two days [4]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 13.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since October 1997, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% [5]. Economic Outlook - The risk of a U.S. economic recession has increased, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and predicting a GDP growth of only 0.5% by Q4 2025 [6]. - Morgan Stanley is even more pessimistic, estimating a 60% chance of recession starting in June 2023 [6]. Expert Opinions - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers criticized the tariff policy as potentially the "largest suicidal policy in U.S. history," highlighting the increased uncertainty and risk of recession [7].