来源：金十数据 2月2日，由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信 号，WTI原油日内暴跌6%。由于美伊紧张局势加剧，原油此前曾触及六个月高位，WTI则处于去年9月 底以来的最高水平附近，而两份合约今日均大幅回落。分析师Sachdeva指出："近期油价的回落也受到 美元走强的加剧影响。美元走强通常会使以美元计价的石油对非美国买家而言更加昂贵，从而进一步施 压油价。" IG市场分析师Tony认为，特朗普的言论，以及有关伊朗革命卫队海军部队无意在霍尔木兹海峡进行实 弹演习的报道，都是局势降温的迹象。他表示："原油市场将此解读为退离对抗的令人鼓舞的一步，缓 解了上周涨势中积聚的地缘政治风险溢价，并引发了一轮获利回吐。" ...

本计价周期内，美国针对中东不断施压，中东地缘局势升级，市场担忧冲突后导致 石油供应中断，因 此，原油价格地缘溢价明显。此外，美国极寒天气扰动，原油产量损失量较大，同时恢复时间较长，叠 加哈萨克斯坦 油田恢复也较市场预期更晚，阶段性的供应端出现紧张情况，共同推动了原油价格上 行。其中WTI原油站稳60美元/桶关口后再度突破65元/桶位置，与之对应的原油变化率在正值范围内上 行，成品油零售价格将再遇上调，这也是2026年首个"二连涨"。据 卓创资讯测算，截至1月30日收盘， 国内第9个工作日参考原油变化率5.32%，预计汽柴油上调230元/吨，调价窗口2月3日24时。 ...

在推进路线图实施的同时，各部委将继续完善石油产品经营相关标准和技术规范，加强检查监管，维护 市场秩序和消费者合法权益。其中工贸部将进一步完善新的石油产品经营和处罚相关政令，为转型阶段 建立更加统一、配套的法律框架。 评估认为，使用生物燃料汽油将带来显著环境效益。据测算，每减少100万吨以上汽油消耗，可减少二 氧化碳排放逾250万吨。同时，发展生物燃料还有助于促进国内生产、增加就业岗位，为经济社会增长 作出积极贡献。 越通社1月26日报道，自2026年6月1日起，越南将在全国启售生物燃料汽油E5 RON 92和E10 RON 95 （乙醇含量分别为5%和10%），这是政府及各部委经多年筹备后，按既定路线图推进的一项重要举 措。工贸部表示，围绕此次转型的法律框架、技术基础设施及企业界共识已基本就绪，可确保市场平 稳、安全、高效运行，推动落实越南在环保、应对气变和保障国家能源安全方面的承诺。 该部于2025年11月颁布部门规章，对越南生物燃料与传统燃料掺混路线图作出具体规定，符合绿色增长 和可持续发展总体方向。近来，该部同相关部委及石油产品经营龙头企业在许可发放、技术监管和供应 准备等方面密切配合。越南石油集团（P ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.23%报 111.920 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.310 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.01%报 105.890 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.394 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 30 日以固定利率、数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase significantly, marking the first consecutive price hike in 2026, driven by rising international crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Forecast - The upcoming adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices is projected to exceed the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton, indicating a high probability of an increase [1]. - As of January 30, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 5.32%, leading to an expected increase of 230 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel prices [1]. - The price hike will occur just before the Spring Festival, resulting in higher fuel costs for consumers during the holiday period, with an estimated additional cost of around 9 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent strong performance of international crude oil prices is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and severe cold weather in the U.S., which has disrupted oil production [1]. - The WTI crude oil futures have stabilized above $60 per barrel and have recently surpassed $65 per barrel, contributing to the upward trend in domestic oil prices [1]. - Analysts indicate that the current market conditions suggest a significant tightening of supply, further supporting the anticipated price increase [1].

来源：潮新闻 最近一段时间，美伊之间剑拔弩张，中东局势持续紧张。由于中东地区是全球最主要的产油区，地缘局 势的紧张导致国际油价一路攀升。 由于油价调整以十个工作日为周期，而春节长假均为非工作日，意味着这次油价上调后，将有较长一段 时间维持这一价格，一直到2月24日才会迎来下一个调价时间窗口。 据金联创测算，截至2月2日第九个工作日，参考原油品种均价为64.52美元/桶，变化率为5.38%，对应 的国内汽柴油零售价均上调225元/吨。折算到每升的话，上调幅度在0.18元左右。最终涨幅还要看最后 一个工作日国际油价表现。 龚良奇 摄 1月20日，国内成品油迎来了2026年度首次油价上调，我省92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油的上调幅度均 为7分钱一升。明晚油价上调后，今年油价也将迎来"两连涨"。目前，我省92号汽油零售价为6.75元/ 升，意味着明晚油价上调后，零售价将逼近7元大关。 纽约原油期货走势 布伦特原油期货走势 2月3日也就是明晚24时，将迎来春节超长假期前的最后一次油价调整。从目前的国际油价走势看，明晚 国内油价上调已是板上钉钉，而且将会是大涨。 ...

没有前瞻性指引 上周日的声明没有提及欧佩克+在3月之后的具体月份可能会做出什么决定，Rystad Energy地缘政治分析 主管、前欧佩克官员Jorge Leon表示，缺乏前瞻性指引这一信号值得关注。 欧佩克+在上周日的一次会议上表示，同意在3月份保持石油产量不变，即使原油价格因市场担心美国 可能对欧佩克成员国伊朗发动军事打击而创下六个月新高。 此次八个欧佩克+成员国的会议召开之际，布伦特原油上周五收于每桶70美元附近，接近上周四创下的 71.89美元的六个月高点，尽管有猜测称2026年的供应过剩最终会压低价格。 欧佩克+八个产油国沙特、俄罗斯、阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦、科威特、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和阿曼在2025 年4月至12月期间将生产配额提高了约每天290万桶，约占全球需求的3%。 去年11月，由于季节性消费疲软，他们暂停了原计划在2026年1月至3月的进一步增产。上周日的简短会 议重申了3月份的这一决定，此前的会议也针对1月和2月做出了同样的决定。 美伊双方发出对话意愿 多位消息人士上周四表示，美国总统特朗普正在权衡对伊朗的选项，其中包括对安全部队和领导人进行 定点打击，旨在鼓舞抗议者。 华盛顿已对德黑兰实施 ...

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration of China has outlined the energy landscape for 2025, indicating improved energy supply security, a relaxed supply-demand balance, and the implementation of multiple key policies to support healthy industry development and the establishment of a new energy system [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Security - Energy supply security is expected to be robust, with coal production stable and industrial coal output increasing by 1.2% year-on-year. Crude oil and natural gas production are projected to reach historical highs, with industrial crude oil output up by 1.5% and natural gas output up by 6.2% [2] - The electricity supply is anticipated to be stable, with several ultra-high voltage direct current transmission projects coming online, enhancing the interconnectivity of the power system [2] Group 2: Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The pace of green and low-carbon transition is accelerating, with policies aimed at integrating and promoting renewable energy. New wind and solar installations are expected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, with cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts, and renewable energy generation accounting for over 60% of total power generation [2] - Renewable energy generation is projected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the total electricity consumption of the 27 EU countries combined [2] Group 3: Industry Development - The industry is experiencing significant orderly development, with measures to address competition in the photovoltaic sector. By the end of 2025, prices for polysilicon and silicon wafers are expected to rise by 52.0% and 35.6%, respectively, from their lowest points [2] - Coal production and supply are being stabilized, with the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports in the Bohai Rim expected to reach 690 yuan per ton, an increase of 75 yuan from the lowest point [2] Group 4: New Energy Storage - New energy storage capacity is projected to grow by 84% compared to the end of 2024, reaching 136 million kilowatts/351 million kilowatt-hours, marking a more than 40-fold increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The North China region accounts for the largest share of new energy storage installations, with 32.5% of the total, followed by Northwest China at 28.2% [3] Group 5: Electricity Market Transactions - The scale of electricity market transactions is expected to reach a new high, with a cumulative transaction volume of 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [5] - Market-based transactions are projected to account for 64.0% of total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the continuous operation of provincial spot markets and the expansion of registered market participants [7] - Cross-regional electricity transactions are expected to grow to 1.59 trillion kilowatt-hours, a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have declined, leading to a continued drop in Hong Kong's oil stocks, with significant losses reported across various companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yanchang Petroleum International has seen a decline of over 7% [1] - CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) and Shanghai Petrochemical have both dropped nearly 4% [1] - PetroChina has experienced a decrease of 3% [1] - China Oilfield Services has fallen by 2% [1] - Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation) has decreased by 1.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) has announced a $780 million crude oil supply agreement with Brazil's state-owned oil company, Petrobras, to diversify its crude oil sources following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement involves the supply of 12 million barrels of crude oil from Petrobras to BPCL [1] - The formal signing of the agreement is scheduled to take place during the "2026 India Energy Week" forum in Goa [1] Group 2: Market Context - BPCL's move is part of a broader strategy by Indian refiners to diversify crude oil sources after U.S. sanctions led to a significant reduction in imports from Russia, which have fallen to a three-year low [1] - In October of the previous year, Petrobras had already signed a one-year contract with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) for a total of 6 million barrels of crude oil [1] Group 3: Procurement Strategies - BPCL has also been procuring crude oil from Iraq and Oman in the spot market and is seeking spot cargoes of UAE's Murban crude to partially replace the affected Russian oil supplies [1] - Other Indian refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation, are increasing crude oil purchases from Angola, Brazil, and the UAE to substitute for the sanctioned Russian oil [1] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The increase in non-Russian crude oil procurement by Indian refiners is aimed at avoiding potential discontent from the U.S. during ongoing trade negotiations [1] - The procurement dynamics reflect a significant adjustment in global crude oil trade due to geopolitical factors [1]