从7月份起，荆门石化以"安全环保集体奖"为抓手，创新构建HSE绩效提升长效机制，通过风险分级、 台阶式奖励和刚性考核"三联动"，推动安全生产从"被动管理"向"全员共治"转变。 分层设计，精准激励。荆门石化根据生产区域风险差异，将考核单位划分为1至3个风险等级，对应设置 差异化奖励基数；推出"台阶式"月度递增机制，未发生事故的单位奖励逐月叠加，最高与最低单位人均 奖励差距达167%，充分体现出"干好干坏不一样"。 严控红线，动态清零。荆门石化对发生事故的单位实行"一票否决"，当月奖励归零且考核基数重启，强 化底线约束；配套发布《安全行为负面清单》，细化152项分级管控行为，为考核提供透明依据。 成果落地，氛围成形。该机制运行以来，荆门石化同步开展"安全卫士""隐患随手拍"等专项评选，10月 份共评选出21项安全环保卫士典型案例、61项安全隐患"随手拍"优秀案例，并对三季度"事故克星""平 安班组"进行嘉奖，累计发放奖金18860元，员工从"要我安全"转向"我要安全"，"人人都是安全员"的文 化逐步形成，为企业高质量发展筑牢屏障。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国政府结束关门在望 【市场资讯】1）国办发文提出 13 项措施进一步促进民间投资，扩大准入、打通堵点、强 化保障。2）中国两部门：优化论证新能源配置及送出消纳方案，促进"沙戈荒"新能源基地 实现规模化就地消纳。3）美国政府关门或再持续数天，参院关键程序性投票通过临时拨款 法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。4）媒体称美国接近将 39%瑞士关税砍到 15%， 特朗普称设法略降瑞士关税，接近达成协议降低印度关税。5）特朗普"钦点"的美联储理事 米兰：政府关门不会影响我对美国经济的看法，12 月应降息 50 基点。6）私营行业数据： 美国 10 月消费品价格涨幅三个月来首次放缓。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，物价指数边际回升，其背后更多受低基数效应、反内卷等因素驱 动。出口同比增速受基数扰动回落显著，在出口对经济的拉动作用边际放缓的背景下，提 振内需或将成为后续政策的重要发力方向。上周海外市场核心看点集中于流动性阶段性紧 张、美国政府超长停摆及美元指数反弹三大方面。目前美国政府停摆有望终结：参院关键 程序性投票通过临时拨款法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。若相关程序顺利推进， 美国政府最早或于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 环比增 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , . | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为31 8792% 环比减少 。 ， . | | | | | 1 44个百分点 . ， | 全国样本企业出货30 88万吨 环比减少6 79% 样本企业产量为53 . ， . , | 2 . | | | | 万吨 环比减少4 31% ， . | 样本企业装置检修量预估为74 5万吨 环比增加22 53% , . ， . , | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term; No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core View - The asphalt market's weakness has not yet turned around, but the spot and futures prices have dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the release of winter storage demand to provide some downside support, and caution is advised [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 10, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3036 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.17% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 208,668 lots, a decrease of 5,598 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 259,174 lots, a decrease of 50,273 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,156 - 3,750 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 2,950 - 3,620 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,200 - 3,400 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton in East China. The asphalt spot price in the Northwest market was relatively stable yesterday, while prices in other regions declined to varying degrees [1] - The current terminal demand for asphalt is weak, and demand in the North will further decline in winter. Refineries with quotas have relatively good profit margins, and recently, low - price forward contract prices have been intensively released in North China and Shandong, suppressing the spot market. The downstream's willingness to buy at the bottom is still poor [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term; No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

谨 慎 看 空 谨 慎 看 空 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价上方承压。11 月 2 日，OPEC+计划于 月继续扩产 13.7 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费 | | 原油 | | | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 | | | | 压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单持有，并购买看涨期 | | | | 权做好风控。 | | | | 成本端油价震荡偏弱，液化气上方承压。美国制裁俄罗斯风险释放，油价 | | LPG | | 回调，沙特再度下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；供需基本面改善，供给量 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强；库存端，港口与厂内 | | | | 库存均下降。策略：空单持有。 | | | | 社会库存缓慢去化，现货延续下跌，基差走弱。装置陆续重启，国内开工 | | L | 空头延续 | 季节性回升，进口量集中到港，国内外供 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both rose 0.5%, at $60.05 and $63.95 per barrel respectively [6] - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 1.47%, aluminum up 1.14%, tin up 1.00%, zinc up 0.95%, lead up 0.46%, and nickel up 0.27% [6] - As of the close on October 10 at 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with soda ash up nearly 2%, caustic soda and pulp up over 1%, and some falling, like rapeseed meal and glass down nearly 1% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - The State Council issued measures to support private investment, increasing support for eligible projects [9] - Fed's Daly said the U.S. economy may face weak demand, and tariff - related inflation is under control [9] - In October, new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.621 million, up 18.5% year - on - year and 8.5% month - on - month, with cumulative sales from January to October at 12.058 million, up 29.9% [9] - China and the U.S. suspended relevant 301 investigation measures for one year starting from November 10, 2025 [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 10, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 113,000 tons, down 6.61% from the previous period and up 7.62% year - on - year [12] - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7062 million tons, down 0.47% from last Thursday [14] - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market [14] - In September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, down 5.45% from August and 1.78% year - on - year [14] - From November 10 at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively [15] Metal Futures - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, down 1.05 percentage points month - on - month and 7.76 points year - on - year [17] - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 159,600 tons, with a slight increase [18] - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETFs added 79.015 tons, up 164.03% year - on - year, while gold consumption was 682.73 tons, down 7.95% [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [19] Black - Series Futures - From November 3 to 9, 2025, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7693 million tons, down 544,800 tons from the previous period [21] - In October 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 657,990 tons, down 26.52% month - on - month and 2.07% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Product Futures - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 2.2047 million tons, down 5.16% from last week and up 8.52% year - on - year [24] - In the 2024 - 2025 season, China's soybean imports were 109.37 million tons, and exports were 80,000 tons [25] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% (AmSpec) and 12.28% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [27][28] - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased 4.44% month - on - month, and production increased 11.02% [29] - From November 3 - 9, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.21 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [30] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on guidelines for public fund thematic investment style management [33] - On Monday, A - shares showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.18%, and ChiNext Index down 0.92%, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, with southbound funds net buying HK$6654 million, and the cumulative net buying exceeded HK$5 trillion [33] - China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11 [34] - Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou were notified to pay additional taxes on overseas investment income [35] - TSMC's October revenue was NT$367.473 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year [36] Industry - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year [38] - Market regulators issued compliance tips for the "Double 11" online promotion [38] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a joint document on new - energy power systems [38] - In October, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales increased by 18.5% [38] - As of October, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions showed a stable trend [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Thailand reached a trade framework agreement [40] - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs to 15% [41] - Fed's Milan supported further interest - rate cuts [43] - San Francisco Fed President Daly said the U.S. economy may face demand decline [43] - U.S. container imports in October decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [43] - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest - rate hikes [43] - Japan plans to raise visa fees for foreign visitors in 2026 [44] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27% [45] - European stocks rose, with the German DAX up 1.65%, French CAC40 up 1.32%, and UK FTSE 100 up 1.08% [47] - Goldman Sachs is bullish on Japanese and Indian stocks [47] - Vanguard increased its position in Tesla and Amazon in Q3 [47] Commodities - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 7.95% year - on - year, while ETFs added 79.015 tons [48] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain contracts and adjust the minimum redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" [48] - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures also rose [48] - London base metals all rose [50] Bonds - The domestic bond market strengthened, with the 30 - year Treasury futures up 0.22% [51] - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds [51] - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds again [52] - U.S. Treasury yields rose [52] Foreign Exchange - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed up 50 points at 7.1175 at 16:30 [54] - Three RMB exchange - rate indices reached new highs since April [54] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close [54] 4. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released on November 11, including Japan's September trade balance and UK's October unemployment rate [56] - There are also multiple events, such as central bank officials' speeches and industry forums [56]

Summary of Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity by 2026, driven by supply-side reforms and policies to expand domestic demand [1][2][3] - The industry has been facing severe overcapacity, necessitating administrative measures for clearance [2][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand domestic demand, which is anticipated to significantly increase market demand for the chemical sector [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reforms**: The need for administrative measures to clear overcapacity is critical, as traditional methods of balancing supply and demand are no longer effective [2][4] - **Demand Growth**: The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand is expected to provide new growth points for the industry, similar to the refrigerant sector [1][2] - **Profitability and Valuation**: The chemical sector is currently experiencing significant cyclical fluctuations, with valuations at historical lows. However, successful implementation of anti-involution policies could enhance both performance and valuation [3][5] - **Government Policies**: Recent changes in energy consumption and carbon emission controls by the government are expected to impact the industry positively, preventing involutionary competition and aiding in the recovery of profitability [7][8] Investment Recommendations - **Leading Companies**: It is recommended to prioritize investments in large, diversified leading companies such as Hengli, Rongsheng, and Wanhua in the petrochemical sector, as well as Hualu, Luxi, and Baofeng in the coal chemical sector [8][9] - **Sub-Sectors to Watch**: Focus on sub-sectors leading in anti-involution, such as polyester filament and PTA, as well as industries like spandex and refrigerants that are entering a natural clearing phase [8][9] Specific Market Insights - **PTA Market**: Currently in a state of extreme downturn, with significant losses reported. Government intervention is expected to stabilize effective capacity around 90 million tons by 2026, with leading companies holding a dominant market share [10] - **Spandex Industry**: After significant expansion, many companies are facing losses. The industry is expected to see a reduction in production, leading to potential profitability in the future [11] - **Refrigerant Sector**: The sector is viewed positively due to government policy changes and its status as a benchmark for anti-involution, with expectations for strong future performance [12] Other Notable Insights - **Cyclical Nature**: The chemical industry is experiencing notable cyclical volatility, with many products at historical low profitability levels. Recovery will require significant price increases [5] - **Future Valuation Expectations**: Valuations for the chemical industry are expected to improve, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential drop to around 10 times earnings [6] - **Emerging Sectors**: New materials related to AI, semiconductor materials, and solid-state battery technologies are also highlighted as areas of potential growth [15] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for recovery and growth, driven by government policies and market dynamics. Strategic investments in leading companies and promising sub-sectors are recommended to capitalize on the anticipated upturn in the market [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) has concluded, showcasing China's commitment to high-quality openness and trade resilience, as highlighted by industry leaders [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The CIIE has been a platform for significant trade, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) signing procurement contracts exceeding $325 billion over the eight editions of the expo [1]. - The event has facilitated the entry of international brands into the Chinese market, exemplified by Singapore's skincare brand, Forest Essentials, opening its first offline store in Shanghai's Huangpu District [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - A report from the Shanghai Huaxia Economic Development Research Institute indicates that the CIIE has led to a notable increase in cultural exchange, industrial transformation, and consumer upgrades, with core indicators showing robust performance [3]. - The "spillover effect" of the CIIE is becoming increasingly evident, emphasizing the importance of interpersonal exchanges that create ongoing business opportunities beyond mere product transactions [3].

Government Policies - The State Council of China has issued measures to promote private investment in sectors such as railways, nuclear power, and water supply, allowing private capital to hold more than 10% in eligible projects [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration aim to establish a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system by 2030, ensuring that new electricity demand is primarily met by renewable energy sources [2] Market Developments - The Market Regulation Administration has conditionally approved the establishment of a joint venture between Chilean National Copper Corporation and Chilean Chemical Mining Company, focusing on lithium carbonate supply, which is crucial for lithium batteries and electric vehicles [3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China have been raised by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, due to fluctuations in international oil prices [3] Industry Performance - In October, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%, with a cumulative total of 12.058 million units sold from January to October, reflecting a growth of 29.9% [4] - Inner Mongolia's renewable energy installed capacity has exceeded 150 million kilowatts, with wind power growing by 23% and solar power by 66% year-on-year [4] Regulatory Changes - Liaoning Province has proposed regulations for distributed photovoltaic power generation, limiting the proportion of electricity sold to the grid to no more than 50% for projects exceeding this threshold over two years [5] International News - Russia is awaiting clarification from the U.S. regarding statements about resuming nuclear tests, emphasizing the need for strategic balance [6] - Reports of unidentified drones over a nuclear power plant in Belgium have been made, but they are not expected to impact operations [6] Corporate Innovations - China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation has successfully applied its pipe materials in the nuclear power sector, breaking the import monopoly and marking a significant achievement in domestic material usage [7]

Core Points - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has been actively repurchasing its shares, with a total of 4.072 million shares bought back on November 10 at prices ranging from 4.300 to 4.400 HKD, amounting to 17.7963 million HKD [1] - The stock has seen a cumulative increase of 4.03% during the recent buyback period starting from October 30, with a total of 30.396 million shares repurchased for a total of 128 million HKD [1] - Year-to-date, Sinopec has conducted 33 buybacks, repurchasing a total of 223 million shares for a total expenditure of 1.025 billion HKD [1] Buyback Details - On November 10, 2025, Sinopec repurchased 407.20 thousand shares at a maximum price of 4.400 HKD and a minimum price of 4.300 HKD, totaling 17.7963 million HKD [1] - The company has consistently repurchased shares over the past eight days, with the highest buyback occurring on August 22, 2025, where 6.762 million shares were repurchased at a maximum price of 4.430 HKD, totaling 297.7214 million HKD [1] - The buyback activity reflects a strategic move by Sinopec to enhance shareholder value amidst market fluctuations [1]