每经记者｜舒冬妮 每经编辑｜文多 ｜2025年8月12日 星期二｜ NO.1 泡泡玛特泰国新店陷"撞脸"名创优品？双方回应来了 8月11日，"泡泡玛特泰国店被指撞脸名创优品"话题登上热搜。日前，泡泡玛特在曼谷"ICONSIAM"购 物中心新开的全球最大品牌旗舰店正式营业。但有网友称，该门店与名创优品位于上海南京东路 的"MINISOLAND"店相似，涉嫌抄袭。针对此事，《21世纪经济报道》记者以消费者身份分别致电泡 泡玛特与名创优品。泡泡玛特接线客服表示，已有相关部门在处理，后续建议关注官方渠道获取事件进 展。名创优品接线工作人员则称，相关问题已登记反馈，如果情况属实，公司肯定会跟进处理。 点评：事件本质是"多巴胺美学"趋同下的品牌视觉碰撞，争议已触发社交媒体情绪，若官方处理失当， 或压制股价势头。若借机强化IP叙事并推出差异化体验，反而有望延续涨势。 NO.2 宜家入驻京东 瑞典家具零售商宜家在电商平台京东的旗舰店已正式开业，公司希望借此拓展在中国第三方线上购物平 台的业务，以低价产品吸引新客户。旗舰店将销售超6500 款产品，配送由京东物流承接。继2020年3月 在阿里巴巴的天猫商城开店后，京东是宜家入驻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of Pop Mart on the domestic IP industry, suggesting that the company has validated the potential for domestic IP enterprises to leverage strong supply chains and quality operations to access global markets [1] Group 1: Commercial Value of IP - The market has underestimated the commercial value of character-based IP and the long-term operational capabilities of companies [2] - The lifecycle of high-quality character-based IP is longer than the market perceives, with examples like MOLLY showing a revenue CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - Successful IP can achieve high commercial value through a combination of mass appeal and artistic quality, as seen with projected revenues of 2.1 billion RMB for MOLLY and 3 billion RMB for LABUBU in 2024 [2] Group 2: Business Challenges and Resilience - From December 2020 to June 2022, the company experienced a decline in stock price due to systemic adjustments in growth stock valuations and deteriorating profit indicators [3] - The period from July to October 2022 saw the company’s performance under pressure, with the blind box trend becoming mainstream, leading to a significant underperformance compared to the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The company demonstrated strong organizational resilience and execution capabilities during this challenging phase, which laid the groundwork for accelerated internationalization post-2024 [3] Group 3: Recovery and Long-term Value Reassessment - From November 2022 to June 2023, the company’s EPS gradually recovered, with positive guidance for 2023, although the market attributed this mainly to macroeconomic factors [3] - Since July 2023, the company’s performance has shown signs of alpha, driven by organizational optimization and accelerated international expansion, particularly with LABUBU gaining unexpected popularity [3] - The rise of LABUBU is supported by trends in personalized consumption and social media influence, which have contributed to its revenue exceeding expectations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company remains optimistic about LABUBU and its diverse IP matrix driving rapid revenue growth across all channels, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - A valuation of 30 times PE for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a market value of 434.6 billion RMB, indicating a potential 28% upside from the market value as of August 8, 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a positive outlook on Pop Mart (9992.HK), highlighting the significant growth potential driven by the labubu IP and a diverse IP matrix, leading to rapid revenue growth across all channels [1] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart are raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - Dongguan plans to allocate 120 million yuan in industrial support funds to enhance the development of the trendy toy and animation industry through five key areas: industrial ecology, market expansion, content creation, animation industry, and element assurance [1] - The policy aims to support companies in improving original design capabilities, creating cultural landmarks related to trendy toys, developing "trendy toys + industrial tourism," and fostering top-quality original animation products [1][3] - Dongguan is actively encouraging global leading trendy toy and animation companies, well-known IPs, and platform giants to establish headquarters, regional centers, and R&D bases in the city, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Landscape - Dongguan hosts over 4,000 toy manufacturing companies and nearly 1,500 upstream and downstream supporting enterprises, making it the largest toy export base in China [2] - According to the "2024 China Trendy Toy and Animation Industry Development Report," the trendy toy industry in China accounts for approximately 20% of the global market, with nearly 85% of trendy toy products produced in Dongguan [2] - Dongguan's trendy toy industry primarily focuses on OEM production, with the overall industry structure remaining in low value-added segments, contributing only 10% to 20% [2][3] Group 3: Future Directions - Dongguan is striving to extend its trendy toy industry towards the ends of the "smile curve," focusing on creative R&D and IP incubation [3] - The latest measures include specific initiatives to support the creation of top-quality original animation products, the establishment of a specialized fund for the trendy toy and animation industry, and enhanced talent cultivation and recruitment [3][4]

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - Dongguan plans to allocate 120 million yuan in industrial support funds to promote the high-quality development of the trendy toy and animation industry through five key areas: industrial ecology, market expansion, content creation, animation industry, and factor assurance [1] - The policy aims to enhance the original design capabilities of trendy toy and animation companies, encourage the creation of cultural landmarks, develop "trendy toy+" industrial tourism, and support the production of top-quality original animation [1][3] - Dongguan is actively inviting global leading trendy toy and animation companies, well-known IPs, and platform giants to establish headquarters, regional centers, and R&D bases in the city, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Overview - Dongguan hosts over 4,000 toy manufacturing companies and nearly 1,500 upstream and downstream supporting enterprises, making it the largest toy export base in China [2] - Approximately 85% of trendy toy products in China are produced in Dongguan, which accounts for about 20% of the global trendy toy market value [2] - Dongguan's trendy toy industry is primarily focused on OEM production, with a low value-added structure, contributing only 10% to 20% of the overall industry value [2][3] Group 3: Development Challenges - The industry still relies heavily on production capabilities, with significant gaps in creative R&D and IP incubation [3] - There is a structural mismatch between the supply of design and sales talent and the industry's demand, highlighting the need for better talent attraction platforms [2][3] - Dongguan has previously introduced policies to strengthen original IP development and enhance original design capabilities, indicating ongoing efforts to address these challenges [3]

Summary of Labubu IP Development and Market Insights Industry and Company Overview - The document discusses the development of the Labubu IP, created by artist Long Jiasheng, which has gained popularity among contemporary youth due to its unique characteristics and emotional resonance [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Labubu's Unique Appeal**: The IP differentiates itself from traditional cute IPs by embodying a blend of dark innocence and rebellion, appealing to modern youth emotions [1][2]. - **Product Launches and Market Impact**: The release of the "Heartfelt Macaron" plush keychain in September 2023 marked a significant breakthrough, utilizing a blind box format that enhanced social sharing and product visibility [1][3]. - **Celebrity Influence**: In April 2024, Thai star Lisa's social media exposure significantly boosted Labubu's popularity, similar to the success paths of other brands like Bearbrick and Cos [1][4]. - **Diverse Product Line**: Labubu has expanded its product offerings through various versions, sub-brands, and limited editions, enhancing consumer interaction and brand storytelling [1][5]. - **Supply Strategy**: The company employs a "70% full" supply strategy to maintain market excitement, but actual demand often exceeds expectations, leading to high resale market premiums [1][8]. - **Pre-sale and Market Control**: To manage excessive premiums, the company uses pre-sales to regulate supply and demand, extending the IP's lifecycle while maintaining brand value [1][10]. - **Auction Market Performance**: Labubu's presence in high-end auctions, with items selling for up to 1.08 million yuan, underscores its status as a collectible and artistic product [1][7][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Social Media Impact**: Platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin have amplified discussions around Labubu, further enhancing its status as a trendy identity symbol [1][6][7]. - **Global Market Expansion**: The company has over 400 stores in mainland China and around 150 overseas, indicating potential for further growth in international markets [1][16]. - **Future Growth Potential**: The domestic market still has significant room for growth, particularly among the 18-35 age demographic and in lower-tier cities [1][17]. - **Upcoming Developments**: The company plans to launch new products, short films, and derivative items in the latter half of 2025, indicating a strong market momentum [1][19]. This comprehensive overview highlights the strategic initiatives and market dynamics surrounding the Labubu IP, showcasing its potential for continued growth and influence in the global market.

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and IP (Intellectual Property) Retail Key Points and Arguments Industry Positioning and Strategy - Pop Mart has transformed its market positioning from a leading blind box and trendy toy company to a full-chain IP operation company, establishing a strong IP operation platform that addresses market skepticism regarding weak content IP longevity and user stickiness [2][3] - The company has enhanced its position in upstream IP resource signing and downstream channel negotiations, confirming the scarcity of trendy toys and quality IP derivative retail formats [2][3] Growth Drivers - Short-term growth drivers include diversified IP monetization and expansion into overseas markets. The projected revenue for 2024 is 13 billion yuan, a 107% year-on-year increase, with profits expected to reach 3.4 billion yuan, a 186% increase [2][4] - Overseas revenue is projected to account for 39% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting a 375% year-on-year growth [2][5] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Pop Mart employs a direct sales and free IP business model, with core competencies in IP selection, incubation, and operation systems. Exclusive artist IPs like Molly and Demo are expected to contribute 85% of revenue in 2024 [2][6] - The company has a robust membership system, with over 46 million members contributing more than 90% of sales and an average repurchase rate of 49.4% [2][7] Product Line Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its product categories beyond blind boxes to include plush toys, building blocks, and Mega accessories, significantly enriching its product line and monetization channels [2][8] - Plush toy revenue is projected to reach 2.8 billion yuan in 2024, indicating substantial growth potential [9] Market Trends - From 2023 to 2024, the market share of figurines decreased from 76% to 53%, while plush toys and other derivatives saw significant increases, with plush toys rising from 3% to 22% [9] - The Mega series is expected to grow by 146% in 2024, nearing 1.7 billion yuan in revenue, driven by new market scenarios and enhanced value [10] Comparison with Global Competitors - Compared to global players like Sanrio, Bandai, and Disney, Pop Mart is still in the early stages of diversified monetization, indicating significant growth potential in this area [11] International Expansion Strategy - The company has adopted a gradual global expansion strategy, with 120 overseas stores expected by the end of 2024, primarily through direct sales [12][15] - The Southeast Asian market is in a growth phase, while the North American market is still in its early stages, with expectations for rapid growth in the next 1 to 3 years [16] Online Business Development - Pop Mart is innovating in its online business to accelerate user acquisition and repurchase rates, showing a trend of rapid growth in online operations [17] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs have a limited impact on the company's business, as the majority of trendy toy products have low value, making them less sensitive to tariff increases [18] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 22.1 billion yuan, 29.9 billion yuan, and 38.7 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 69%, 35%, and 30% respectively [19] Industry Position and Future Outlook - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in China's trendy toy industry, with strong barriers in IP incubation, supply chain management, and product innovation. The growth path for the next three to five years is clear, with a target price of 185.6 HKD based on a 40x PE valuation [20]

Group 1 - The report analyzes the Southeast Asian trendy toy market, highlighting its current status, competitive landscape, consumer characteristics, policy environment, and future development trends [1][2]. - The Southeast Asian trendy toy market is projected to reach approximately $2.5 billion in 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of 20%, outpacing the global average [3][56]. - The market is characterized by a dominance of Chinese brands in the mass market, while Western and Japanese brands lead in niche segments, and local brands are still emerging [3][58]. Group 2 - Chinese brands like Pop Mart and Miniso are rapidly expanding in Southeast Asia, with Pop Mart's revenue in the region expected to reach 2.4 billion RMB in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 619.1% [4][60]. - International brands such as Bandai and Funko are also present in the market but primarily focus on niche segments due to pricing and distribution challenges [5][61]. - Local brands like Mighty Jaxx and XM Studios are emerging but face significant challenges in IP operation, production scale, and financial strength compared to Chinese brands [6][61]. Group 3 - The sales channels for trendy toys include both physical and online platforms, with major online marketplaces like Shopee and Lazada playing a crucial role in market penetration [7][62]. - The consumer demographic is primarily aged between 15-35 years, with female consumers making up about 60% of the market [8]. - Consumer motivations are driven by the "instant gratification" and "social currency" attributes of trendy toys, heavily influenced by social media [9]. Group 4 - The trade relationship between China and ASEAN countries is strong, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner since 2020 [11]. - Different countries in Southeast Asia have varying tax and certification standards for trendy toys, necessitating companies to prepare accordingly [12]. - The investment environment in Southeast Asia is promising but comes with certain risks, including financial exchange rate risks and labor quality disparities [13]. Group 5 - The Southeast Asian trendy toy market is expected to continue its rapid growth, but competition will intensify, leading to product homogenization [14]. - Companies are advised to develop scientific layout strategies, including product development planning, channel network construction, and business model innovation [14]. - Emphasis on cultural integration is crucial for trendy toy brands to enhance market acceptance and brand influence [14][15]. Group 6 - The Southeast Asian trendy toy market has significant growth potential but faces intense competition and diverse challenges [16]. - Chinese trendy toy brands need to understand local market characteristics and develop scientific market strategies to transition from "product export" to "cultural export" [16].

（文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 潮玩巨头们之间的商战，正越来越朴实无华？ 8月11日，"泡泡玛特泰国店被指撞脸名创优品"的话题登上热搜。而随着热度持续发酵，事件又出现了新的进展：有聊天截图在网络上流传，内容显示名创 优品（股票代码：09896.HK）疑似以每条300元的价格，招募"水军"对相关话题进行炒作。 事情的起源，是泡泡玛特（股票代码：09992.HK）于8月8日在泰国曼谷的ICONSIAM购物中心新开了全球最大的品牌旗舰店，为面积高达760平方米的超大 沉浸式空间。 据泡泡玛特官微介绍，该旗舰店整体空间分为两层，首层MEGA区以MOLLY与THE MONSTERS的大型产品为打卡点，另设有潮玩专区、POP BEAN互动 区。此外，店内还特别设立了泡泡玛特全球首家海外咖啡空间POP MART CAFÉ。户外广场则放置了身高4米的巨型Molly Thailand Limited装置，身穿泰国当 地特色服装、骑着大象。 泡泡玛特还表示，门店以泰国传统文化为设计灵感，融合大量在地元素。设计细节融合泰国独特的"水文化"、传统建筑语言与包容性理念。 值得注意的是，该旗舰店除了在当地再度引发大排长龙的消费热潮，其装修 ...

记者注意到，事情起源于近日泡泡玛特在曼谷ICONSIAM购物中心开设全球最大品牌旗舰店。随后有网 友指出，该门店与名创优品位于上海南京东路的MINISO LAND全球壹号店相似，涉嫌抄袭。网络对比 图显示，两家门店均采用荧光粉、亮蓝等"多巴胺色系"，通过曲线划分功能区；天花板的荧光色块布局 逻辑相近。 有网络截图显示，名创优品以300元/篇的价格征集博文，要求发布"名创优品努力在造IP，PPMT努力在 学名创优品开店"等相关内容。业内人士认为，这是新一轮潮玩商战开启。对此，《中国经营报》记者 向名创优品方面求证该内容是否由其发布，截至发稿，名创优品相关负责人尚无回应。 王宁则称自己亲自巡店并调整门店装饰。他曾在《人民日报》的公开采访中提到："我们开店数很少， 而且全是直营。今年年底海外估计有200家店，我们自己建团队，在当地雇人自己管，这是比较慢和笨 的方式。" 泡泡玛特官方账号推文介绍，泡泡玛特泰国旗舰店在设计细节上充分展现本土文化特色。旗舰店总面积 超760平方米，以泰国传统文化为设计灵感，融合大量当地元素。二层区域则以泰国传统建筑元素为灵 感，搭配明亮活泼的多巴胺色系，构建了潮玩爱好者的"沉浸式游乐场" ...