每经AI快讯，12月16日，德国12月制造业PMI初值为47.7，预期48.5；12月服务业PMI初值为52.6，预期 53。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the valuation repair in the A-share market in 2025, the main driving force in 2026 is expected to shift more towards the substantial improvement of the profit fundamentals. The core logic of this profit recovery lies in the gradual re - balancing of the supply - demand pattern. With the continuous deepening of the "anti - involution" policy and the natural clearing of the production capacity cycle, enterprise profit margins have stabilized first, and asset turnover is also expected to gradually pick up. The moderate recovery of PPI will drive the profit margin repair of the mid - stream manufacturing industry, and the gradual entry of AI technology into the commercial application stage will also promote the accelerated growth of revenues in related industries [3][54]. - The capital side is expected to remain generally abundant, supported by three aspects: the continuous transfer of domestic residents' asset allocation to equity products, the potential return of foreign capital to the A - share market as the external environment stabilizes, and the steady entry of long - term funds such as pensions and insurance funds, which will provide stable liquidity support for the market [3][54]. - Overall, the reasonable level of the valuation side and the positive factors on the capital side will provide strong support for the performance of the A - share market in 2026 [3][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Index Review - Since the beginning of the year, all major domestic stock indices have shown an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index having the largest increase and the Composite Index having the smallest increase. In terms of structure, small and medium - cap indices performed better. As of December 15, the ChiNext Index rose 49.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 36.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 27.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 26.18%. The small and medium - cap 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index rose 25.66%, 25.22%, and 23.72% respectively. In addition, the CSI 300 Index rose 16.42%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.04%, the SSE 50 Index rose 11.54%, and the Composite Index rose 11.29% [10]. - In 2025, the A - share market showed an "N" - shaped upward trend, mainly centered around the triple game of external environment disturbances, internal policy adjustments, and technological industry breakthroughs. It was affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut policy and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches from risk aversion to confidence repair, then to trend - up and structural digestion [12]. 3.1.2 Sector Review - In the first half of 2025, most sectors showed an upward trend. As of December 15, among the primary industries, the materials and information technology sectors led the gains, with annual increases of 47.22% and 44.03% respectively. The industrial sector rose 27.32%, the communication services sector rose 20.30%, the healthcare sector rose 16.22%, and the optional consumer sector rose 14.48%. The annual increases of the finance, energy, utilities, and real estate sectors were all less than about 10%. The only sector that declined was the daily consumer sector, which fell 1.68% [17]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Review - The overall trend of stock index futures in 2025 was consistent with the index market, showing an "N" - shaped trend. As of December 15, the SSE 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 Index rose 12.60%, 20.21%, 38.61%, and 39.66% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. In terms of trading volume, the average annual daily trading volumes of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 35,000 lots, 70,000 lots, 63,000 lots, and 147,000 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, the average annual daily open interests of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 56,000 lots, 143,000 lots, 105,000 lots, and 175,000 lots respectively [19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Economic Progress - **GDP Data**: In 2025, China's economic growth rate showed a pattern of high at the beginning and stable later. The GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the full - year growth rate of the previous year [22][27]. - **PMI Data**: Since the beginning of the year, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI have fluctuated around the boom - bust line (50). In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly increasing by 0.2 percentage points but remaining below the boom - bust line. The service industry index in November was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous value [30]. - **Inflation Data**: Since the beginning of the year, the overall price level has shown a pattern of low - level CPI fluctuations and continuous negative PPI growth. However, there are positive structural changes. The core CPI has continued to rise since the second quarter, and the decline of PPI has significantly narrowed since August, showing signs of stabilization [31]. - **Consumption Data**: From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, faster than the same period and the full - year of the previous year. In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate continuing to decline. Service consumption grew rapidly, and the consumption of cultural and sports services maintained double - digit growth [38][39]. - **Fixed Investment Data**: From January to November, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while project investment excluding real - estate development investment increased by 0.8%. Investment in emerging fields showed good momentum, and investment in some traditional industries also expanded. Policy effects continued to appear, and equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 12.2% year - on - year [41]. - **Outlook for the 2026 Economy**: In 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve "repair - type" growth and structural re - balancing under policy support, showing a "stable at the beginning and rising later" trend. The GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5%, inflation is expected to enter a moderate recovery channel, and policies will focus on boosting consumption [44]. 3.2.2 Macroeconomic Policies Supporting the A - share Market - The "anti - involution" policy will continue to deepen, aiming to optimize the industrial structure and enhance global competitiveness. Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to continue. The fiscal deficit ratio is expected to remain at about 4%, the scale of new special bonds may reach 4.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase to 1.6 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate is expected to be between 7.7% and 8.1%, with possible reserve - requirement ratio cuts of 50 basis points and interest - rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points [46][48]. 3.2.3 Tariff Uncertainty Disturbing the A - share Market - In April 2025, the US announced a series of tariff policies, which led to significant fluctuations in the A - share market in the short term. In the long term, it accelerated the transformation of A - share listed companies in two aspects: diversifying export markets and strengthening the "self - controllable" logic [49][50]. 3.2.4 Overseas Liquidity Loosening Supporting the A - share Market - The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points. This has two main impacts on the A - share market: expanding domestic policy space and boosting market risk appetite. However, the medium - and long - term trend of the market still depends on the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals and policy effects [51][52]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, stock index futures were affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and Fed interest - rate cut policy changes and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches [53]. - In 2026, the A - share market is expected to be driven more by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and the capital side is expected to remain abundant, providing strong support for the market [54].

2025年1至6月份，长春高新的营业收入构成为：制药业占比92.83%，房地产占比6.81%，服务业占比 0.36%。 截至发稿，长春高新市值为376亿元。 每经AI快讯，长春高新（SZ 000661，收盘价：92.06元）12月15日晚间发布公告称，公司第十一届第十 五次董事会会议于2025年12月15日以现场结合通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于下属公司签署 GenSci098注射液项目独家许可协议的议案》等文件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中标企业频频弃标 大型医疗设备采购有何难言之隐？ （记者 曾健辉） ...

Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, significantly below the expected 2.9%[1][7] - Retail sales of goods fell sharply, with categories like gold and jewelry down 29.1% to 8.5%, and home appliances down 4.8% to -19.4%[2][8] - Service retail sales showed positive performance, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.4%[2][8] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November recorded a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, but this was an improvement of 2.1 percentage points from October[3][39] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3][17] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors[3][41] Real Estate - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 6.9 percentage points to -29.9% in November[2][43] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth, with new starts down 27.7% and completions down 25.4%[2][43] - Despite falling prices, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points to -17.9%[2][43] Production - Industrial added value maintained a growth rate of 4.8% in November, only slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3][26] - The production of food and beverages saw significant recovery, with growth rates of 5.6% and -0.6% respectively[3][26] - The automotive sector experienced a notable decline, with production down 4.9 percentage points to 11.9%[3][26] Policy Implications - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transition, with a shift from goods consumption to service consumption[4][31] - The government's focus on "new investment" areas is beginning to show positive effects, with overall investment expected to stabilize in the future[4][31] - Risks remain from external environmental changes and the pace of growth policy implementation may not meet expectations[5][50]

Economic Growth Trends - In November, industrial value added grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in October[1] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease from 4.6% in October[1] - Overall economic growth momentum has weakened, with both industrial and service sectors falling below 5% growth since Q4[1] Consumer Spending and Retail Performance - Social retail sales grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in November, down from 2.9% in October[1] - Online retail sales increased by 1.5% year-on-year in November, significantly lower than the 4.9% growth in October[1] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw reduced consumer engagement, impacting retail performance[1] Investment and Real Estate Market - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6% cumulatively from January to November, with a 12% decline in November alone[2] - Real estate development investment dropped by 30.3% year-on-year in November, indicating a worsening trend[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, with sales revenue down by 25.1%[2] Policy Recommendations - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for stronger domestic demand to address the supply-demand imbalance[3] - Plans for 2026 include more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize investment[3] - Risks include potential trade frictions and continued declines in the real estate market, which may affect policy effectiveness[3]

Economic Data - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, worse than the expected -2.2% and the previous -1.7%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, compared to an expectation of -15.4% and a previous value of -14.7%[1] - Industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous 4.9%[1] Consumption Trends - Consumption policies have shifted focus from goods to services, with social retail sales slowing down while service retail sales increased by 5.4% year-on-year[2] - The decline in retail sales was influenced by the fading effect of e-commerce promotions and a downturn in demand for home appliances, automobiles, and furniture[2] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income showing a slight decline but overall service retail growth improving[2] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a marginal recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points to -10.1%, marking the first rebound since Q2[3] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, while service sector investment increased by 0.6 percentage points to -12.3%[3] Real Estate Sector - Real estate financing weakened significantly, with credit financing growth dropping by 11.5 percentage points to -25.3%, leading to a sharp decline in real estate investment growth to -29.9%[4] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth territory, with new starts down by 27.7% and completions down by 25.4%[4] - Despite falling prices, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points, respectively[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for financial institutions to enhance support for expanding domestic demand, with a focus on boosting consumption through coordinated efforts between business and finance [1]. Financial Support for Key Consumption Areas - Financial support will be increased for key areas of consumption, including upgrading product consumption, expanding service consumption, and fostering new types of consumption [2][3][4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to collaborate with platforms and key merchants to improve payment services and better meet consumer needs for upgrading products [5]. - Personal consumption loans will be developed with differentiated policies on amounts, terms, and interest rates based on customer creditworthiness [5]. Collaboration Between Business and Finance - Local business departments and financial management departments are urged to strengthen communication and collaboration to address challenges in implementing financial support for consumption [9]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop specific action plans and implement policies to support consumption [9]. - The integration of financial support with local consumption promotion activities is encouraged to stimulate consumer potential [9]. Innovation in Financial Products and Services - Financial products and services will be innovated to better fit the characteristics of service consumption, including sectors like hospitality, entertainment, and education [12]. - New financial services will be developed to support emerging consumption trends such as green consumption, digital consumption, and AI-driven consumption [13]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to create tailored financial products for rural areas and support local consumption initiatives [10][14]. Promotion of Consumption Activities - Financial institutions are encouraged to actively participate in local consumption promotion activities and develop specialized products to reach more consumers [15]. - The use of digital currency and smart contracts is promoted to enhance the efficiency of consumption subsidy policies [15]. - Collaboration between financial institutions and merchants is encouraged to develop financial products that cater to the unique needs of the consumption industry [15]. Enhancing Rural and County-Level Consumption - Financial services will be tailored to support rural consumption and promote the sale of agricultural products [10]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide financing for logistics and distribution centers in rural areas to enhance local commerce [10]. - Support for county-level consumption initiatives will be provided through credit support for local promotional activities [10].

Core Viewpoint - Economic differentiation reveals clues about policy transformation, as "old indicators" overlook "new changes" in the economy [2][4][89] Consumption - Consumption policies are shifting from goods to services, leading to a decline in social retail sales while service retail shows strength. The social retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, driven by a decline in retail growth for goods such as home appliances and automobiles [2][8][68] - Service consumption remains positive, with total service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in restaurant income [2][4][8] Real Estate - Real estate financing weakened due to credit risks from certain property companies, causing a significant drop in investment. In November, self-raised funds for property companies decreased, leading to a 25.3% decline in credit financing growth [2][12][63] - Real estate investment growth fell to -29.9%, with new construction and completion rates also showing significant negative growth [2][12][63] Investment - Recent policy measures have alleviated the "crowding out effect" of debt repayment on investment, with fixed asset investment showing a month-on-month rebound of 2.1% to -10.1% [3][22][88] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9% to -6.7%, while manufacturing and service sector investments also saw slight recoveries [3][22][88] Production - Industrial production maintained resilience, with industrial value-added growth stabilizing at 4.8%. The easing of workday effects and previous high inventory levels contributed to this stability [3][33][42] - Certain downstream industries, such as food and textiles, experienced significant production growth, while the automotive sector saw a decline [3][33][42] Summary - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transformation process, but the positive effects of policies on the economy are becoming evident. Consumption policies are transitioning towards services, and while indicators for goods consumption are declining, service retail growth is rising [4][89][90] - Investment policies are focusing on "new investment" areas, with signs of improvement in new infrastructure and service sector investments, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [4][89][90]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 如何提高居民消费率？ 根据消费经济的一般演进路径，随着居民收入不断提高，消费重心会逐渐从日 常消耗品转向耐用商品，并进一步向服务领域扩展。当前，我国人均 GDP 已 跃升至 1.3 万美元以上，居民消费格局呈现出从商品主导向服务主导转变的趋 势。与一般发达国家相比，我国服务消费占比明显偏低，"十五五"时期提升 居民消费率的战略选择就是大力发展服务消费。 ❑ 消费的宏观特征：消费率低，但消费量并不低；政府消费占比较高，居民 消费率偏低；实物消费占比高，而服务型消费占比低。 1）中国整体消费率（最终消费支出/GDP）明显低于一般发达国家，但最 终消费量并不低，剔除价格、汇率等因素，按照购买力平价后的绝对消费 量接近美国，且大于整个欧盟总和；由于中国属于制造业大国，国内商 品、服务价格普遍低于国际平均水平。 2）最终消费结构中，中国居民消费率（居民消费支出/GDP）不仅低于全 球平均水平，而且低于同为发展中国家的印度、巴西等国；中国政府消费 额以及占 GDP 的比重均高于全球水平，亦高于一般发达国家，形成了 "官方消费比民间旺盛"的独特现象。 3）与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development to address uncertainties in the current economic landscape [1][8]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The conference signals a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing the synergy of macroeconomic policies [1][2][3]. - Emphasis on "optimizing expenditure structure" and scientific management within fiscal policy aims to stabilize total demand while directing funds towards key areas such as technology innovation and public welfare [3][10]. - Monetary policy is set to remain "moderately loose," with flexibility in using various tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure adequate liquidity [3][10]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Economic Structure - The conference prioritizes "expanding domestic demand" as a key task, reflecting a strategic decision to strengthen the internal economic drive amid rising external uncertainties [3][4][11]. - Key strategies for expanding domestic demand include stabilizing income, enhancing consumer confidence, optimizing supply, and promoting investment to create a virtuous cycle [4][11]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - Future growth drivers will focus on the integration of cutting-edge technology with industries, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [5][11]. - The capital market is identified as a crucial element in nurturing new growth drivers, with a call for reforms to better support national innovation strategies [5][11]. Group 4: Reform and High-Quality Development - The conference highlights the need for reforms to eliminate "involutionary" competition and establish a unified national market, which is essential for enhancing economic vitality [6][12]. - Recommendations include setting high standards for market access and fair competition rules to guide enterprises in phasing out outdated capacities [12]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Investment Opportunities - China's opening up is shifting towards institutional openness, with future cooperation expected to focus on service trade, digital trade, and green low-carbon sectors [6][13]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in domestic leading service enterprises, technology companies in digital trade, and firms in the renewable energy sector that can engage in international standard-setting [13].