每经AI快讯，澜起科技(06809.HK)首挂上市，公告显示，每股定价106.89港元，共发行6589万股份，每 手100股，所得款项净额约69.05亿港元。截至发稿，涨57.17%，报168港元，成交额9.75亿港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market adjusted, with a decline in risk appetite. Weighted indices were relatively resilient. The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics sectors led the losses. The core driver was the news of the new Fed chair appointment, which led to a convergence of easing expectations and continuous disruptions. In the commodity market, precious metals and non-ferrous sectors continued to fluctuate weakly, and related A-share sectors led the decline. In the technology theme, although some large US technology companies and domestic AI leading companies released good financial reports or performance forecasts, they failed to show stronger upward momentum due to over-optimistic expectations, resulting in a pullback after reaching a high. Funds shifted to the previously underperforming weighted blue-chip sectors, and the consumption recovery expectation before the Spring Festival led to a continuous rebound of blue-chip weighted stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, driving the weighted indices to perform strongly [1]. - This week is the last trading day before the Spring Festival. Trading may become light, and trading volume is expected to decline. Due to the long holiday and many external uncertainties, the wait-and-see sentiment among funds is rising. The market is expected to show no significant performance this week, and the style may still focus on high-to-low switching. However, the domestic policy continues to support the market, and there are policy expectations for the upcoming Two Sessions. The AI industry is booming, and the global monetary and fiscal easing is certain in the long term, so the market is expected to have certain support and is unlikely to have a large adjustment space. If there are no black swans externally, the stock index is expected to have a good start after the holiday. After the holiday, the market will enter the trading time for the Two Sessions and then transition to the "Golden March and Silver April" trading logic at the real economy level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Spot Market Review** - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.84%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 1.43%, Germany's DAX rose 0.74%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.81%. In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.02%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27% [9]. - Since 2025, major indices have risen, but last week, all major domestic indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.28% [11]. - Last week, industries in the CSI 300 Index showed mixed performance, while most industries in the CSI 500 Index declined. The market trading volume and turnover rate declined [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Market Review** - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, IM had the largest decline, and IC had the largest amplitude. The trading volume of stock index futures remained flat, and the open interest increased slightly. The basis of the main contracts and the cross-variety ratio of stock index futures showed certain trends [17]. - **Index Valuation Tracking** - As of January 30, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.15 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.22 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.74 times. The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 38.13 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 50.72 times [18][20]. - **Market Capital Flow Review** - The margin trading balance in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate once declined last week, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [20][21]. 2. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy** - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts. The stop-loss and take-profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy** - Adopt an interval thinking or buy on dips. It is expected that the core operating interval of the main contract IF2602 of IF is between 4524 and 4733 points; that of the main contract IH2602 of IH is between 2961 and 3098 points; that of the main contract IC2602 of IC is between 7815 and 8426 points; and that of the main contract IM2602 of IM is between 7746 and 8348 points [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy** - Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) cautiously [5]. 3. Factors to Watch - Fed policy trends and China's January monetary and credit data [3]

经济增长实现5%、连续3年保持5%及以上增速、经济总量首次突破140万亿元——2025年，我国经 济顶压前行，交出一份亮眼答卷。 顺利完成预期目标，成绩来之不易。一边是外部环境不确定性加剧，地缘冲突、保护主义升温；一 边是国内困难挑战不少，经济动能处在新旧转换的关键期。复杂形势下，我国经济仍以稳中有进的姿 态，为全球贡献30%左右的经济增长，成为世界经济最稳定、最可靠的动力源。这份"稳定"，离不开党 中央总揽全局、掌舵定向，以集中力量办大事的优势、办好自己的事的定力、该出手时就出手的果断， 为经济发展增添抗压能力与内生动力。 对于大体量的经济体而言，"稳"已属难得，"进"更显可贵。透过2025年的经济数据，一个底盘厚、 韧性足、优势多、潜力大的中国经济样貌呈现在眼前—— 在生产的持续增长里，有大国经济的稳健。 庞大的经济体量，对应的是实打实的生产力。2025年生产端的稳定增长依然是实现GDP增长的重要 支撑。规模以上工业增加值比上年增长5.9%、服务业增加值比上年增长5.4%、粮食总产量比上年增加 838万吨……这些厚实的"家底"，构筑起我们抵御风险、行稳致远的基础。尤其是工业增加值对经济增 长的贡献率达到3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of Moutai has ignited the entire liquor sector, with significant price movements and market reactions indicating a potential recovery in the industry after a prolonged adjustment period [1][2][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Market Performance - Moutai's stock price surged by 8.61% on January 29, marking the highest single-day increase since February 2025, and its market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price of Moutai has rebounded over 18% from its low, approaching a critical technical bull market position, which could influence the extent of its price increase and the nature of the rebound [4]. - The price of Moutai's 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai is psychologically anchored at 1499 yuan, and if the market price falls below this level, Moutai may implement strategies to stabilize prices [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is traditionally a peak consumption period for liquor, and the introduction of iMoutai has helped stabilize prices after a previous decline [1][4]. - There is a notable increase in demand for flying Moutai during the Spring Festival, but post-holiday, consumer purchasing behavior may revert to more rational levels, potentially affecting prices [4]. - The overall liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with first-tier brands like Moutai indicating a gradual exit from the adjustment phase, which could positively impact the pricing structure across the sector [7]. Group 3: Collectible Liquor Market - The collectible value of Moutai's zodiac-themed products is under scrutiny, with some experts advising caution regarding their investment potential, as past releases have shown significant price fluctuations [5]. - The market for zodiac-themed Moutai has seen substantial price adjustments, with the latest batch experiencing a drop from 2750 yuan to 2280 yuan per bottle [4][5]. - Comparatively, other collectible products, such as the zodiac water from Nongfu Spring, have demonstrated even higher premium rates, raising questions about Moutai's relative value in the collectible market [1]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The liquor industry has experienced multiple adjustment cycles since 1999, with the current cycle, which began in 2022, being notably prolonged, reflecting broader economic challenges and shifts in consumer demand [8][9]. - The recovery of the liquor sector is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, with expectations for a turning point in the industry by the second half of 2026 as inventory levels normalize [9].

美国科技巨头大举"撒钱"的举动正令资本市场感到忧虑。 上周，在亚马逊宣布计划向人工智能（AI）及相关基础设施领域注资2000亿美元后，股价于6日早盘应 声下跌近9%。然而，市场的冷静反应并未浇灭这场AI投资热潮。根据谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta在近 日披露的最新资本支出计划，这四大科技巨头在2026年的开支总额预计将高达约6500亿美元。 在理论定义中，AGI被视为AI的终极状态，意味着系统能在会计、法律等多个白领专业领域达到并取代 人类的智力水平。 而驱动这些巨头"不计成本"投入的核心逻辑，很大程度上寄希望于通用人工智能（AGI）的实现，以及 随之而来的数万亿美元潜在回报。正如硅谷风投机构红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）合伙人卡恩（David Cahn）所言："唯有AGI的实现，才能证成未来十年这一量级的投资提案。" 然而，业内对AGI实现路径正涌现出越来越多的怀疑。彭博行业研究高级中国科技分析师罗伯特·李 （Robert Lea）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，鉴于当代AI模型存在根本性的逻辑缺陷且方法论较为 单一，仅仅通过扩展现有模型，即行业目前盛行的做法，不太可能实现AGI。 模式识别并非真智 ...

当地时间2月7日，美国一家报纸发现了一张很难不引发关注的照片，照片来自美国司法部最新公布的与 杰弗里·爱泼斯坦有关的文件。 杂志的文章公开后，扎克伯格的代表随即发表声明，称："马克曾在一次表彰科学家的晚宴上与爱泼斯 坦有过一面之缘，那次晚宴并非由爱泼斯坦组织。晚宴之后，马克再也没有与爱泼斯坦联系过。" 埃隆·马斯克、马克·扎克伯格等知名的科技界大佬出现在了照片中，在场的熟面孔中，疑似还有扎克伯 格的华裔妻子普莉希拉·陈。 这张照片出现在一封电子邮件中。2015年8月2日，爱泼斯坦给他的朋友彼得·阿提亚（现为CBS的"明 星"撰稿人），发了一封邮件，称他当晚将与马斯克、扎克伯格和彼得·蒂尔（被称为"硅谷风投教父"） 共进了晚餐。第二天，他给自己发了一张扎克伯格、马斯克和其他人围坐在桌旁的照片。 18天后，爱泼斯坦再次提到了这场晚餐，他在给凯悦酒店执行董事长汤姆·普利兹克的电子邮件中，把 晚宴描述为"疯狂的"，进而还说道："我和扎克伯格、马斯克（原文写的是：mu=k）、蒂尔·霍夫曼 （LinkedIn联合创始人）一起吃饭了，很疯狂。" 值得注意的是，这场汇聚了数位科技界名流的晚餐会，早在2019年就被《名利场》杂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets experienced a significant crash on February 6, 2026, driven by a sudden shift in monetary policy expectations, high leverage trading, and a retreat of risk aversion, leading to widespread sell-offs across various asset classes [1][8]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Silver prices plummeted over 19% in a single day, marking the most severe drop in five years, with domestic futures contracts hitting the limit down [1] - Gold prices fell below the critical psychological level of $4,800 per ounce, reaching a low of $4,780, with a daily decline of 4.08% [3] Group 2: Energy Markets - WTI crude oil futures dropped over 2%, falling below $64 per barrel, while Brent crude also declined over 2%, losing the $68 mark [3] Group 3: Stock Markets - The Dow Jones index fell nearly 600 points, a decrease of approximately 0.97%, while the Nasdaq composite index saw a deeper drop of 1.39% [3] - Major tech companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia, all experienced declines, exacerbated by disappointing earnings reports [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price fell below the critical support level of $70,000, dropping to $67,000 with a maximum decline of over 12% within 24 hours [4] - Over 430,000 investors were liquidated, with total losses amounting to $2.069 billion [4] Group 5: Key Negative Factors - The first factor was a 180-degree shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve, with potential hawkish leadership signaling a faster reduction of the balance sheet and prolonged high interest rates [5] - The second factor involved high leverage among investors, particularly in precious metals and cryptocurrencies, which led to forced liquidations as margin requirements were raised [6] - The third factor was a retreat of risk aversion and tightening liquidity, as geopolitical tensions eased and investors sold off positions in gold and silver to cover losses in other markets [6] Group 6: Market Dynamics - The market exhibited characteristics of liquidity drying up, with a lack of buying depth leading to significant sell orders being executed at lower prices [7] - Uncertainty in U.S. economic data, including a delay in the non-farm payroll report and rising layoff announcements, contributed to market apprehension [7] - The overall environment indicated a tightening of global liquidity, with major central banks signaling a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policies [7]

来源：第一财经 景林资产向美国证交会（SEC）提交的最新13F表格数据显示，在截至去年12月31日的第四季度，其美 股持仓市值约为40.45亿美元，其中，谷歌(GOOG.O)升至第一大重仓股。与此同时，景林在去年最后一 个季度大幅减持英伟达(NVDA.O)及Meta Platforms(META.O)。当前，其前三大重仓股分别为谷歌 (GOOG.O)、Meta Platforms(META.O)及拼多多(PDD.O)。 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微跌，截止到收盘，还在3.9星。 大盘股下跌。 中证500等中小盘股波动不大。 红利等价值风格略微下跌。 创业板等成长风格盘中上涨，到收盘也变成下跌。 昨天海外市场波动比较大。 美股、商品、虚拟货币大幅波动。 受此影响，今天港股也整体下跌。 港股恒生红利低波动波动小一些，港股科技股下跌。 螺丝钉也汇总了港股指数的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 1. 有朋友问，港股红利类指数最近表现比较强，接近历史新高的位置。 但同期港股科技类指数下跌，是因为啥呢？ 其实A股和港股，牛市经常出现成长/价值风格轮动。 港股的指数数量比A股少。 A股价值风格，有红利、低波动、价值、自由现金流等指数。 港股主要是红利类指数，例如恒生红利低波动。 A股成长风格，有A系列龙头策略、有成长、质量等指数，也有创业板科创板。 港股主要是科技类指数，例如港股科技、恒生科技。 2. 2024年9月5.9星以来，港股也出现过几波风格切换。 （1）2024年9月到2025年9月，港股成长风格比较强势。 2025年1-2季度，港股科技股的盈利同比翻倍增长，是最近5年增速最快的时间段。 指数点数=估值* ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that as the U.S. midterm elections approach, the attractiveness of major tech companies is declining, making small and mid-cap stocks the best investment choice [1][2] - The U.S. Bank strategist team, led by Michael Hartnett, indicates that aggressive intervention policies by President Trump to lower costs in energy, healthcare, credit, housing, and electricity are putting pressure on energy giants, pharmaceutical companies, banks, and large tech sectors [1] - The report suggests a strategy of going long on the real economy sectors while shorting Wall Street financial sectors until Trump's approval ratings rise due to a shift towards livelihood issues [1] Group 2 - Investors are accelerating their exit from tech stocks due to concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, seeking investments that will benefit from the Trump administration's cost-lowering measures [2] - The Nasdaq 100 index recorded its largest three-day decline since April, dropping 4.6%, while the S&P 500 index has underperformed its equal-weighted index by 4.2 percentage points year-to-date [2] - The Bank of America notes a significant shift in corporate business models from "light asset" to "heavy asset," posing a major threat to the market dominance of the so-called "seven giants" in tech [2] - It is projected that AI capital expenditures for large tech companies will reach approximately $670 billion this year, accounting for 96% of their cash flow, compared to only 40% in 2023 [2] - The era of large-scale stock buybacks for these companies is considered to be over, as their balance sheet advantages diminish [2] - Hartnett has been optimistic about international stocks since late 2024, a prediction that has proven to be highly prescient as U.S. stock performance continues to lag behind global markets [2]