Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that cultural exchanges between China and Russia have been a driving force for the sustained development of bilateral relations, with a solid foundation of public opinion established over nearly 76 years of diplomatic ties [1][5][7] - The "China-Russia Cultural Year" from 2024 to 2025 will feature hundreds of cultural exchange activities, further strengthening the friendly social foundation between the two nations [1][2] - The successful performances of the original Shenzhen dance drama "Yongchun" in Russia and the co-produced film "Red Silk" highlight the growing cultural cooperation and mutual appreciation between the two countries [2][3] Group 2 - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Russia is projected to reach 848,000 in 2024, a 4.2-fold increase from 2023, while the number of Russian tourists visiting China, particularly Hainan, has surged by 11 times [6] - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Russia reached $244.8 billion, marking a 1.9% year-on-year increase, with China maintaining its position as Russia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years [6] - The cultural exchanges are supported by improved visa policies, deepening economic cooperation, and a mature exchange mechanism, which facilitate closer ties between the two nations [5][6][8] Group 3 - The "Cultural Year" emphasizes the importance of dialogue and understanding between different cultural traditions, enhancing mutual recognition and respect among the peoples of both countries [7][9] - Public opinion surveys indicate a high level of mutual recognition and optimism regarding the future of China-Russia relations, with 95% of young Russians expressing a favorable view of China [7][9] - The ongoing cultural cooperation is seen as a vital component of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia, contributing to the integration of cultures and the strengthening of public sentiment [8][9]

宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced declines, with the biotechnology index ETF dropping nearly 2%, the global technology stock index ETF falling 1.5%, and the semiconductor ETF decreasing by 1.4% [1]. Industry Performance - Biotechnology Index ETF: Current price at 123.54, down 2.32 (-1.84%), with a year-to-date decline of 6.47% [2]. - Global Technology Stock ETF: Current price at 78.07, down 1.19 (-1.50%), with a year-to-date decline of 7.88% [2]. - Semiconductor ETF: Current price at 214.60, down 3.01 (-1.38%), with a year-to-date decline of 11.38% [2]. - Technology Sector ETF: Current price at 212.73, down 2.73 (-1.27%), with a year-to-date decline of 8.35% [2]. - Networking Stock Index ETF: Current price at 235.52, down 2.82 (-1.18%), with a year-to-date decline of 3.15% [2]. - Healthcare ETF: Current price at 136.63, down 1.51 (-1.09%), with a year-to-date decline of 0.30% [2]. - Banking Sector ETF: Current price at 51.71, down 0.50 (-0.96%), with a year-to-date decline of 6.11% [2]. - Regional Bank ETF: Current price at 55.55, down 0.49 (-0.87%), with a year-to-date decline of 7.34% [2]. - Financial Sector ETF: Current price at 49.05, down 0.39 (-0.79%), with a year-to-date increase of 1.86% [2]. - Consumer Discretionary ETF: Current price at 197.72, down 1.57 (-0.79%), with a year-to-date decline of 11.63% [2]. - Global Airline ETF: Current price at 20.93, down 0.11 (-0.52%), with a year-to-date decline of 17.44% [2]. - Consumer Staples ETF: Current price at 81.19, down 0.30 (-0.37%), with a year-to-date increase of 3.83% [2]. - Utilities ETF: Current price at 79.97, up 0.42 (+0.53%), with a year-to-date increase of 6.40% [2]. - Energy Sector ETF: Current price at 80.97, up 0.47 (+0.58%), with a year-to-date decline of 4.74% [2].

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced declines, with the energy sector ETF dropping by 2%, and both the financial and consumer discretionary ETFs falling by over 1% [1] Energy Sector - The energy sector ETF is priced at 80.34, reflecting a decrease of 1.64, or 2.00% [2] - The total market capitalization for the energy sector ETF is 201.19 billion, with a year-to-date change of -5.48% [2] Financial Sector - The financial sector ETF is currently at 49.19, down by 0.57, or 1.16% [2] - This ETF has a total market capitalization of 547.45 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 2.14% [2] Consumer Discretionary Sector - The consumer discretionary ETF is priced at 199.31, down by 2.13, or 1.05% [2] - The total market capitalization for this ETF is 250.33 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 10.92% [2] Utility Sector - The utility sector ETF is at 79.01, down by 0.74, or 0.93% [2] - It has a total market capitalization of 114.70 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 5.13% [2] Technology Sector - The technology sector ETF is priced at 215.56, reflecting a decrease of 1.05, or 0.48% [2] - The total market capitalization for the technology sector ETF is 685.60 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 7.13% [2] Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology index ETF is at 126.09, down by 0.51, or 0.40% [2] - Its total market capitalization is 100.12 billion, with a year-to-date decrease of 4.54% [2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor ETF is priced at 218.32, down by 0.71, or 0.32% [2] - The total market capitalization for this ETF is 25.81 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 9.85% [2] Regional Banks - The regional bank ETF is at 56.07, down by 0.17, or 0.30% [2] - It has a total market capitalization of 46.79 billion, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.47% [2] Global Technology Sector - The global technology ETF is priced at 79.42, down by 0.15, or 0.19% [2] - Its total market capitalization is 11.12 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 6.29% [2] Global Airline Sector - The global airline ETF is at 21.07, up by 0.19, or 0.91% [2] - The total market capitalization for this ETF is 663.70 million, with a year-to-date decline of 16.88% [2]

Group 1 - The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Milan, Italy, focusing on global and regional macroeconomic conditions and financial cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance the development of general and industry-specific large models and accelerate the construction of high-quality data sets in the industrial sector [2] - During the May Day holiday, the price of branded jewelry gold fell below 1,000 yuan per gram, with some brands returning to the "800s" [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 151,000 wage-related illegal cases were resolved, benefiting 662,000 workers with a total of 8.07 billion yuan in wages [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan aiming to reduce the average feed consumption per kilogram of animal products by over 0.2 kg by 2030, representing a reduction of more than 7% from 2023 [2] - The number of South Korean tourists visiting China reached 2.66 million in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [2] Group 3 - The eighth Digital China Construction Summit attracted over 360,000 participants, setting a new historical record [2] - As of May 4, the total box office for the 2025 May Day holiday period exceeded 600 million yuan, with "Dumpling Queen," "Hunting Game," and "Princess Mononoke" leading the box office rankings [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid digital transformation in Dongying, particularly in traditional industries like paper manufacturing and oil extraction, driven by advanced technologies and data integration [1][2][4] - Huatai Group has successfully launched a "smart manufacturing" project, referred to as the "industrial brain," which significantly enhances production efficiency and data management in its paper manufacturing operations [1][3] - The digital economy in Dongying is experiencing substantial growth, with a projected increase of 44.98% in the core industry value added in 2024, leading the province in growth rate [3][4] Group 2 - Dongying is home to 23 enterprises with annual revenues exceeding 10 billion, showcasing its industrial strength and the shift towards digital solutions in traditional sectors [2][4] - The implementation of the Yunfan Industrial Internet platform by Shandong Shengruan Technology Co., Ltd. has transformed oil field operations, allowing for real-time monitoring and data analysis, thus improving operational efficiency [2][3] - The city is actively promoting the integration of digital technologies across various sectors, with a digital transformation coverage rate of 90.7% among industrial enterprises in 2024, reflecting a 4.3 percentage point increase from 2023 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

特朗普关税阴影笼罩，企业巨头纷纷拉响盈利预警。 "消费者采取'观望'态度并非不合逻辑，我们看到零售商的客流量有所下降"。 由于特朗普关税政策带来的成本飙升和消费者信心动摇， 美国企业巨头正密集下调盈利预期，覆盖消费品、航空、能源、电信、工业制造等多个领域，企业普 遍警告供应链受阻、成本增加，并对经济前景表示担忧。 虽然市场充斥着对经济衰退的担忧，但一种反向解读认为， 这或许是CEO们施压白宫的策略，反而可能促使政策转向，部分解释了近期美股市场反弹的现象。 FactSet的数据显示，截至统计时点，在标普500指数成份股公司中 ，已有超过90%的公司在第一季度财报电话会议上提及关税影响， "衰退"一词的提及率也从 去年第四季度的不足3%飙升至44%。 消费品巨头率先"缴械"，下调业绩指引 首当其冲的是消费品公司。本轮财报季中， 宝洁、百事，甚至墨西哥风味快餐连锁Chipotle等公司纷纷下调了全年业绩指引。 宝洁将其归咎于"更紧张的消费者短期内减少消费"，以及关税对其成本结构和盈利能力的影响。公司首席财务官Andre Schulten在电话会议上表示： 百事公司同样指出， "低迷的"消费者情绪以及关税是其下调全年 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月2 4日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简 称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"以来的第一份《褐皮书》，因此非常受 到市场的关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性， 几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出， 企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 本次 《褐皮书》的与众不同之处 和以后相比，美联储本次发布的《褐皮书》有以下显著特点： 一是"关税"提及频率创历史新高。 褐皮书报告有107次提到"关税"，是上一期的两倍多，远超特朗普第一任期峰值（51次）。89次提及"不确定性"，显示 关税政策反复无常对企业信心冲击极大。 二是经济前景显著恶化。 多个地区因关税不确定性导致前景"显著恶化"，企业普遍采取缩短定价周期、加收关税附加费等临时措施以应对成本压力。 三是消费者行为扭曲。 消费者赶在关税涨价前抢购汽车和非耐用品，但非汽车类消费整体萎缩，国际游客数量锐减。 四是就业市场分化。 政府职位及依赖财政的机构裁员，私营企业招聘放缓甚至酝酿裁员，反映出特朗普政府缩减联邦开支的影响。 《褐皮书》揭示的内容将产生哪些潜在 ...

美联储发出最新警告。 今日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告，其中显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不 确定性，几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。根据统计，在这份报告中，总共107次提到"关税"一词，与"不确定性"有关的 词汇出现89次。 另外，近期关于解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的风波持续搅动美国市场。美国总统特朗普最新表示："我认为鲍威尔不 降息是在犯错误，我可能会给鲍威尔打电话。" 值得一提的是，在此之前，特朗普表示他"从没有打算"解除鲍威尔的职务。据知情人士透露，特朗普改变主意与美 国财政部长贝森特和商务部长卢特尼克有关，知情人士称，他们警告特朗普罢免鲍威尔或引发市场动荡和法律纠 纷。 美联储重磅发布 北京时间4月24日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"后的第一 份《褐皮书》，因此备受市场关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性，几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格 均有所上涨，大多数地区指出，企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 在美联储最新的《褐皮书》中，"关税"一词共被提及了107次，是上一期《褐皮书》两倍以上的 ...