Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core View - In the off - season for consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of weakness on both sides, and macro uncertainties will continue to interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On May 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.64/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, the waste white shell remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton and closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,962 lots, an increase of 8,816 lots from the previous day. The position was 36,929 lots, a decrease of 1,525 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,875 yuan/ton and a low of 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton and closed at 16,830 yuan/ton, a 0.57% decrease from the previous afternoon's close [1] Spot Market Transactions - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton. In Henan, traders offered discounts of 100 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Jiangxi, smelters offered premiums of 50 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions; in Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and traders offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton, with sparse spot transactions; in Yunnan, holders offered discounts of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions. Lead smelters sold according to the market, downstream buyers generally waited and watched, and only made a small amount of purchases for rigid demand. The overall spot market transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On May 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,700 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a weak pattern, and macro uncertainties will continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$10.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -125 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On May 6, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,755 yuan/ton, closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,146 lots, a change of 1,712 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 38,454 lots, a change of 2,348 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,625 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton, closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease from the afternoon close [3] Inventory - On May 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 261,500 tons, a change of -100 tons from the previous trading day [3]

2025 年 04 月 30 日 铅：需求偏弱，上方承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16895 | -0.65% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1977 | 1.65% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31780 | -8769 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3551 | 1373 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 36543 | -2276 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145978 | -1359 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 15 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15.86 | 2.05 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -10 | 5 | 进口升贴水 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2) Core Viewpoint - The market risk sentiment has recovered, and non - ferrous metals once strengthened. However, the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, so the lead price may remain volatile [3] 3) Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On April 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.91/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all decreased compared with the previous trading day. The lead scrap price also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 17,005 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 40,549 lots, an increase of 2,570 lots, and the position was 38,819 lots, an increase of 86 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,015 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous afternoon [2] - **Inventory**: On April 28, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from last week. As of April 28, the LME lead inventory was 271,025 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, and the arbitrage strategy is to be suspended due to the current supply - demand imbalance in the lead market [3]

研究报告 铅周报 沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16820 元/吨附近至 17085 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大，但仍处于合理区间。 全球精炼铅矿山产量同比增长、环比下降，全球铅供需仍然处于 小幅过剩状态。铅加工费从底部逐步回升，回升幅度缩小。中国 汽车产量继续增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。沪铅库存大幅下降， 库存水平处于近年来高位。LME 铅库存小幅下降，库存水平处于 近年来高位。 【后市展望】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-10 消费淡季 市场成交相对冷清 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-04-09，LME铅现货升水为-29.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-175元/吨至16450 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-200 元/吨至16500元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16450元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-125元/吨至16425元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至10075元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至9800元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 10175元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-09，沪铅主力合约开于16650元/吨，收于16410元/吨，较前一交易日变化-130元/吨，全天交易 日成交54274手，较前一交易日变化5042手，全天交易日持仓41816手，手较前一交易日变化-904手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16690元/吨，最低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: On hold [3] Core View - As it is currently the off - season for lead - acid battery consumption and the overall commodity and equity markets are relatively weak, appropriate sell - hedging operations can be carried out for lead [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On April 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.56 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -225 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -275 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -250 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -325 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,825 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On April 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,550 yuan/ton, closed at 16,540 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,232 lots, down 41,129 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 42,720 lots, down 1,608 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,520 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,580 yuan/ton, closed at 16,590 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated at a low level yesterday. Some sellers lowered their offer premiums to sell and achieved some transactions. The discount of the ex - factory price of electrolytic lead smelters (against the SHFE lead 2505 contract) narrowed again, and some even offered at a premium. Recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with significantly fewer quotes. Some offered at a premium of 0 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. Downstream enterprises actively inquired, but there were still differences in actual transactions. Some purchased as needed, while others continued to wait and see [2] Inventory - On April 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the same period last week. As of April 8, the LME lead inventory was 235,725 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Lead) [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The downstream is affected by the off - season, with weak inventory preparation and light market trading. The supply side has both increases and decreases, and the fundamentals have insufficient support for lead prices. With the intensification of the US tariff policy on the macro - level, although the policy itself has little impact on the lead market, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and lead prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected that lead prices will be mainly sorted at a low level in the short term, with an operating range of 16,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 2.02% to 16,975 yuan/ton; the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 2.92% to 17,100 yuan/ton; the London lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 5.90% to 1,906 US dollars/ton [15] - **Basis**: Data on the basis, Shanghai lead spot premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, and the difference between consecutive contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][22][23] 2. Increases and Decreases Coexist, and Primary Lead Operation Fluctuates Slightly - **Refinery Situation**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with the domestic TC at 650 yuan/metal ton and the imported TC at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. The mine end was continuously in short supply, and there was no expectation of adjustment in market TC quotes. Refinery profits recovered, reaching 69 yuan/ton as of March 28 [31] - **Primary Lead Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 61.48%. In April, electrolytic lead maintenance and restart coexisted, and the output was expected to be the same as that in March. If lead prices continued to fall, refineries might cut production [32][37] - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelters decreased from 49,525 tons in the week of March 28 to 46,995 tons this week due to factors such as refinery maintenance [40] 3. The Operation of Secondary Lead Recovers, but the Raw Material Problem Remains Unsolved - **Waste Battery Prices**: As of April 7, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton month - on - month [48] - **Secondary Lead Profits**: As of April 3, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 422 yuan/ton [54] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: As of April 4, secondary lead raw material inventory was 17.91 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,440 tons. Refineries stocked up before the festival, but waste battery supplies were still tight, and downstream demand decreased during the festival, leading to inventory accumulation [58] - **Secondary Lead Operating Rate**: The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 3.14 percentage points to 62.46%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 67,400 tons. Some refineries in Anhui increased their operation due to more raw material arrivals, while operations in Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia were relatively stable [61] 4. The Off - Season Intensifies, and Battery Operation Declines - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The lead battery operating rate decreased by 3.65 percentage points to 70.21%. Affected by the off - season and rising prices of auxiliary materials such as antimony and tin, battery enterprises' production enthusiasm was low, and some enterprises chose to stop production or adjust their production plans [70] 5. Import and Export Profit Windows are Closed - **Export and Import Situation**: As of March 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of April 7, the import profit was - 117.59 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [79] 6. Social Inventory Decreases Slightly - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 70,000 tons, showing a decrease. The decline in primary lead enterprise operation and pre - festival inventory preparation by downstream enterprises led to a slight decrease in social inventory [89] - **SHFE and LME Inventories**: As of April 3, SHFE refined lead inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease month - on - month. As of March 21, LME inventory was 235,850 tons, showing an increase [92] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data on the monthly supply - demand balance of lead from January 2024 to February 2025 are presented, including primary lead output, secondary lead output, export volume, import volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [93]