Core Viewpoint - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates that the Chinese government has implemented measures to restrict excess capacity in the copper smelting industry, leading to the shutdown of approximately 2 million tons of copper smelting capacity, which is expected to positively impact copper prices and major copper producers [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Vice President, Chen Xuesen, confirmed the shutdown of 2 million tons of copper smelting capacity due to government directives [1] - All non-compliant smelting capacities under construction have also been suspended, indicating a strict enforcement of the policy [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the stock prices of Jiangxi Copper Company (00358) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) will rise within the next 15 days, with a probability of 70% to 80% [1] - The target prices set for Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum are HKD 37.3 and HKD 18.6 respectively, both receiving an "overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (01208) is likely to rise in the next 15 days, with a probability of approximately 70% to 80% [1] Industry Summary - The Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Chen Xuesen, indicated that due to government directives to limit excess capacity, approximately 2 million tons of copper smelting capacity has been shut down [1] - All non-compliant smelting capacities under construction have also been suspended [1] - The implementation of these measures is expected to benefit copper prices and major copper companies [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley has given China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 8.4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has expressed strong opposition to the phenomenon of zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry, calling it an "unsustainable structural contradiction" that harms the interests of the global copper smelting sector, including China [1][2]. Industry Response - The association's vice president, Chen Xuesen, emphasized the dangers of negative processing fees, urging the global copper industry to confront this issue and promote cooperation among relevant countries and stakeholders [2]. Capacity Management - China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity by halting approximately 2 million tons of illegal capacity to curb excessive expansion, with these capacities either under construction or in planning stages [3]. Future Development - In the coming years, China will prioritize the development of new smelting capacity that utilizes scrap materials instead of importing copper concentrate, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and alleviate overcapacity pressures [4]. Market Dynamics - The decline in processing fees to historical lows is attributed to a structural imbalance between raw material shortages and excess smelting capacity, with spot processing fees dropping to extreme levels, raising concerns about industry sustainability [4]. - Global copper smelting companies are facing the impact of low processing fees, with companies like Japan's JX Advanced Metals announcing production cuts and Glencore's Mount Isa smelter receiving government support to maintain operations [4]. Long-term Negotiations - Analysts believe that the current pressure on processing fees is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, as the market awaits the upcoming 2026 long-term contract negotiations to establish a more sustainable pricing mechanism [7]. - The core issue of the negotiations will be whether the long-standing benchmark system can continue to be applicable, with expectations of further adjustments to the annual benchmark system and a shift towards more diverse and complex negotiation formats [7].

格隆汇11月26日｜中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，"坚决反对"铜行业实行零甚至负加工精炼 费(TC/RC)政策，这种做法严重损害包括中国在内的全球铜冶炼行业的利益。 ...

Core Insights - Gautam Adani's Kutch Copper has invested $1.2 billion in a copper smelting plant in Gujarat, but is facing significant raw material supply challenges, receiving only a small fraction of the required ore for full capacity operation [1] - The plant requires approximately 1.6 million tons of copper concentrate to operate at full capacity, yet has imported only about 147,000 tons in the past ten months, compared to over 1 million tons by competitor Hindalco Industries [1] - Global copper smelting operations have been disrupted due to supply interruptions from major producers, leading to historically low processing fees, indicating smelters are accepting lower margins to secure raw materials [1] Industry Challenges - New entrants like Kutch Copper face higher maintenance costs and longer timelines for capacity expansion due to supply constraints [2] - Kutch Copper plans to double its annual capacity to 1 million tons within four years, but may incur short-term losses as it ramps up production [2] - India's increasing demand in infrastructure, power, and construction sectors is outpacing its limited processing capacity, highlighting challenges in achieving self-sufficiency in metal production [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [1]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a "low TC" era, with copper smelting enterprises facing significant challenges and the need for transformation [2]. - The report highlights that TC/RC has dropped to negative levels, indicating a tightening supply of copper concentrate [8][12]. - The report discusses the impact of recent production cuts from major copper mines, which have led to a significant reduction in supply [12][18]. - The profitability of smelting enterprises is under pressure, with many operating at a loss, relying on by-product revenues for survival [15][18]. - Future policies are expected to focus on controlling copper smelting capacity to prevent excessive competition and promote industry consolidation [22][23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: TC at a Decade Low - TC/RC has reached negative values, with imported copper concentrate TC around -42 USD/dry ton as of November 2025 [8]. - Major copper mines have experienced production cuts, leading to a total reduction of 570,000 tons in supply [12]. - Smelting enterprises are currently facing losses, with by-products like sulfuric acid becoming crucial for profitability [15][18]. Section 2: Future Outlook on TC - The report anticipates that TC will remain low over the next two years, with a projected supply gap of around 500,000 tons in 2026 [29]. - Policies are being developed to set a "capacity ceiling" for copper smelting to enhance industry structure and efficiency [22][23]. - The pricing model for copper smelting may shift, with companies like Freeport considering individual contract pricing to maintain profitability [25]. Section 3: Strategies for Smelting Enterprises - Smelting enterprises are encouraged to extend their supply chains and reduce costs through technological advancements and operational efficiencies [36][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the recycling of copper and optimizing the use of by-products to enhance profitability [41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided documents do not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market showed a bottom - rebound, with the TMT sector warming up. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently, and the basis discount was repaired. Due to the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision and the market being in a re - pricing adjustment, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The funds were looser, and the Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to operate within the range and for short - position investors to speed up the position - shifting pace [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The voices in the Fed supporting interest - rate cuts increased, and precious metals strengthened. In the medium - long term, the bull market of precious metals will continue, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify. Gold is expected to fluctuate between 4000 - 4150 dollars, and silver is recommended to go long lightly if it rises [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **EC**: The spot market is cold, but the SCFIS European line index rose sharply after the market, so it is expected to rise slightly in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the copper price fluctuates narrowly. The medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the copper price, and the main contract is recommended to be in the range of 85500 - 86800 [12][15]. - **Alumina**: The market fluctuates at a low level, and the supply contraction and inventory accumulation slowdown indicate that the market's worst over - supply pressure may be approaching the end. The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 [15][17]. - **Aluminum**: There is a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 21100 - 21700 [17][19]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price follows the adjustment of the aluminum price, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20300 - 20900 [19][21]. - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, and the zinc price fluctuates. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 22200 - 22800 [22][25]. - **Tin**: The supply side remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [25][29]. - **Nickel**: The price repairs upward from a low level, driven by upstream production cuts and low valuations. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 116000 - 120000 [29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates weakly, with raw materials under pressure and insufficient demand. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 12200 - 12600 [33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price fluctuates. It is recommended to go long around 50000, and hold or close the sell - put option [40][41]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price falls, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 [42][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand recovers, and the steel price is expected to stabilize. The rebar is recommended to be in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil is recommended to be in the range of 3250 - 3400 [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping and arrival increased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron ore price fluctuates upward. The futures price is expected to fluctuate upward under the discount [51][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in the origin decreased, and the demand for replenishment was bearish. It is recommended to view it as a weak - side shock, with the range of 1050 - 1150, and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coke and short on coking coal [54][57]. - **Coke**: After the fourth price increase, there is an expectation of a price cut. It is recommended to view it as a weak - side shock, with the range of 1550 - 1700, and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coke and short on coking coal [58][63]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market changed, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [64].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The copper industry is experiencing significant changes due to resource acquisition and market dynamics. The global average copper ore grade has declined from 0.86% in 2000 to 0.6% in 2023, with projections to drop to 0.56% by 2030. This trend is coupled with a decrease in major new discoveries and limited new projects, leading to a potential stagnation in global copper production in 2025 compared to 2024 [7][8]. Company Developments - Tongling Nonferrous has enhanced its resource reserves significantly by acquiring a 70% stake in China Railway Construction's Tongguan, injecting the Mirador copper mine's high-quality resources. This acquisition is expected to improve the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs [2][4]. - The first phase of the Mirador copper mine has been operational since 2019, producing approximately 90,000 tons of copper metal annually. The second phase is expected to commence in 2025, with an annual processing capacity of 46.2 million tons of ore and an anticipated output of 200,000 tons of copper metal by 2027 [2][4]. Financial Performance - Despite a decline in net profit in the first half of 2025 due to increased tax expenses from overseas subsidiaries, the overall profit margin remains stable when excluding tax impacts. The company's revenue and net profit have shown an upward trend from 2020 to 2024, with a projected increase in cathode copper production to 1.896 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year growth of over 7% [5][6][10]. Market Demand - The demand for copper is expected to rise significantly in emerging sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers. For instance, electric vehicle sales alone are projected to contribute an additional 224,000 tons of copper demand by 2025, while renewable energy generation will require at least 17.4 million tons in the long term [8][9]. Competitive Advantages - Tongling Nonferrous is positioned as one of the most comprehensive enterprises in the domestic copper industry, with over 1.65 million tons of combined resources and stable production capabilities. The company is actively expanding its upstream and downstream operations, including investments in a green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park to enhance product value and mitigate industry volatility [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in profits, with projected net profits of 3.64 billion yuan, 5.07 billion yuan, and 5.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 0.27 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.43 yuan. Based on a comparable company PE ratio of 26, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set for the company [14]. Additional Insights - The company is also expanding its operations in the electronic information industry and precious metals sector. The production capacity for high-precision electronic copper foil has reached 80,000 tons, with a revenue growth of 44.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The precious metals segment is expected to see a significant increase in gold production, with the second phase of Mirador adding nearly 2.65 tons of gold annually, marking an over 50% increase compared to 1.7 tons in 2024 [3][13].

【冠通期货研究报告】 美国就业数据影响市场 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜平开高走，日内下跌。 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日铜平开高走，日内下跌。美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，预期 5.0 万人，前值由 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人。9 月失业率从前值 4.3%上升至 4.4%，预期 4.3%。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万 吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有望上移。 据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行 仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。需求 方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前 置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万吨，同比 下降 13.5%。上期所铜库存连续累库目前同比偏高 98.63% ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 云南铜业11月21日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，西南铜业搬迁项目采用世 界先进铜冶炼工艺和装备，可实现资源的高效综合利用，降低生产成本，提升公司的综合竞争力。公司 西南、东南、北方三个铜冶炼基地布局合理，多技术路线并进，使公司在生产组织上更加灵活，能够根 据不同的原料和市场情况合理调配，提高了原料适应性。近年来，公司通过持续降本、提质等措施提升 整体竞争力，目前冶炼加工成本具有一定竞争优势。 ...