Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou's retail market shows resilience and growth, with a significant increase in social retail sales driven by various policies and new business models, positioning the city as a leading international consumption center [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Performance - In the first half of the year, Guangzhou achieved a total retail sales of 561.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, outperforming other first-tier cities [1]. - The retail sales growth rate in Guangzhou was notably higher than that of Shanghai (1.7%), Beijing (0.9%), and Shenzhen (3.5%) [1]. - The retail sales growth rate in the second quarter showed a monthly increase, with May and June each exceeding 9.5% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Tourism and International Influence - Guangzhou received 1.13 billion tourists in the first half of the year, with a remarkable 129% increase in foreign visitors entering through Baiyun Airport [3][5]. - The city was recognized as the "Most Internationally Influential Inbound Tourism City" for 2024, indicating its growing status as a primary destination for global travelers [3]. - The implementation of a new tax refund policy has significantly boosted the "consumption-refund-reconsumption" cycle, enhancing the shopping experience for international visitors [3][5]. Group 3: E-commerce and Consumer Trends - Online retail sales of physical goods in Guangzhou increased by 16.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances (27.6%) and furniture (330%) [7]. - The demand for high-performance gaming laptops surged, driven by the dual influence of summer economic activities and national subsidy policies [8]. - The rise of "emotional consumption" among younger consumers is reshaping retail dynamics, with brands leveraging IP collaborations to enhance sales and brand influence [10][13]. Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The government has implemented various policies to stimulate both supply and demand, including subsidies for new energy vehicles and electronic products [6][7]. - Guangzhou's strategic initiatives have attracted major e-commerce players, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem that includes platforms, payment systems, logistics, and supportive policies [9]. - The city is undergoing a transformation into a "new retail" hub, integrating traditional commerce with digital and cross-border consumption [14].

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the Japanese toy company Sanrio, with FY2026Q1 revenue reaching 431 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and a net profit of 141.9 billion yen, up 38% year-on-year [14][27] - The report emphasizes the growing demand for vocational education in China, with over 12 million college graduates in 2025, and a significant talent gap in the service industry, estimated at over 20 million [5][12] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing high demand, driven by promotional campaigns such as "The First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn" launched by delivery platforms [5][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Toy Industry - Sanrio's FY2026Q1 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a significant contribution from the Chinese market, which saw a revenue increase of 125% year-on-year [14][27] - Bandai's FY2026Q1 revenue was 3004 billion yen, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 383 billion yen, up 12.6% year-on-year [30][36] Section 2: Vocational Education - The vocational education sector is targeting the service industry's talent gap, with a focus on practical training and skill development [5][12] - New Oriental's vocational programs are designed with 80% of the curriculum focused on practical training, leading to higher average salaries for graduates [5][12] Section 3: Beverage Industry - The tea beverage market is thriving, with promotional activities driving sales growth [5][12] - Companies like Mixue and Luckin Coffee are positioned to benefit from this trend [5][12] Section 4: Market Performance - The social services sector underperformed the broader market, with the social services index down 0.11% compared to a 1.34% increase in the CSI 300 index [6][28] - Recommendations for investment include tourism, education, and consumer services, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [6][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, China Feihe, and Haidilao, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the food and beverage sector, with companies like Guoquan and Yum China reporting substantial revenue increases. Guoquan's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 3.24 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, while Yum China's revenue was 5.77 billion USD, up 2% year-on-year [2][6]. - The designer toys sector is experiencing expansion, with Pop Mart opening its largest flagship store in Thailand, indicating strong brand presence and market penetration [2]. - The home appliance sector is also showing positive trends, with companies like Ecovacs and Dun'an Environment reporting significant stock performance increases of 10.7% and 8.1% respectively [3][7]. Summary by Category Food & Beverage Sector - Key performers include Guming (+8.2%) and Xiaocaiyuan (+7.3%), while underperformers include Yum China (-2.1%) and Green Tea Group (-2.4%) [3][7]. - Guoquan's interim results show a net profit of 190 million RMB, a remarkable increase of 122.5% year-on-year [2]. Designer Toys Sector - Pop Mart's stock increased by 14.3%, reflecting strong market performance, while Miniso also saw an 8.5% increase [3][7]. - The announcement of Time Youth Group as Miniso's global brand ambassadors is expected to enhance brand visibility [2]. Home Appliance Sector - Ecovacs and Dun'an Environment are leading with stock increases of 10.7% and 8.1% respectively, indicating robust market demand [3][7]. - The overall performance of the home appliance sector remains strong, with various companies reporting positive growth trends [2].

Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry has experienced rapid growth, becoming a new growth point in cultural consumption, driven by the emotional value these toys provide to young consumers [1][3] - A潮玩 store on Nanjing Road in Shanghai reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, indicating a strong consumer interest in original潮流 IPs [3] - The Chinese潮玩 industry is gaining global popularity, leveraging trendy culture and IP creativity to attract consumers both domestically and internationally [3][5] Industry Developments - The Chinese government has initiated measures to cultivate new growth points in cultural and tourism consumption, emphasizing the development of fashionable domestic潮牌 (trendy brands) and潮品 (trendy products) [5] - Domestic潮玩 companies are continuously innovating their product lines and consumption scenarios to strengthen connections with both domestic and international consumers [5] Market Dynamics - The潮玩 consumption market is vibrant, but there are concerns about potential overheating, prompting industry insiders to call for stricter enforcement of regulations and collaborative efforts from families, schools, and platforms to guide rational consumption among minors [11]

Core Insights - The event on August 10, 2025, highlighted the development of the animation film industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on Dongguan as a hub for trendy toys [1][3] - Dongguan produces approximately 85% of China's trendy toys, with 50% of that production coming from the Shipaizhen area, showcasing its significant role in the global trendy toy market [3] Industry Overview - The trendy toy industry is characterized by creativity and cultural elements, with one-quarter of global anime derivatives produced in Dongguan [3] - Dongguan's "Trendy Toy Center" has attracted 30 companies across various sectors, including IP incubation, brand operation, product design, and e-commerce [1] Company Highlights - Notable companies in the Dongguan trendy toy sector include 52TOYS, Yan Chuang Culture, and DAMTOYS, which are involved in brand operation and product design [1] - The company Mo Dong He, known for its anime IP "Star Armor Soul Transmission," has gained popularity for its unique storytelling and design [5] - Toycity, a subsidiary of Chengshi (Dongguan) Cultural Technology Co., has developed several proprietary IPs and is recognized as a key player in the trendy toy industry [9][18] Market Trends - The market share of Chinese trendy toys in overseas markets has increased from 3% in 2020 to 18% in 2025, indicating robust growth and international recognition [20] - Dongguan is leveraging technologies like AI and blockchain to enhance IP operations and establish itself as a core distribution center for the trendy toy supply chain [20]

Group 1 - The Chinese潮玩 industry is experiencing rapid growth and has become a new growth point for cultural consumption, driven by the popularity of blind box toys and other collectibles [1][5] - A潮玩 store on Nanjing Road in Shanghai reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 106.9%, indicating strong consumer interest among young people [1] - The industry is leveraging潮流 culture and IP creativity to attract a global audience, enhancing its market presence [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government has initiated measures to further cultivate new growth points in cultural and tourism consumption, emphasizing the development of fashionable domestic潮牌 and潮品 [5] -潮玩 companies are continuously innovating their product lines and consumption scenarios to strengthen connections with both domestic and international consumers [5] - The vibrant潮玩 consumption market also faces risks of overheating, necessitating collaborative efforts from families, schools, and platforms to guide rational consumption among minors [9]

Core Insights - The event held on August 8 aimed to promote the development of the animation and toy industry in Dongguan, attracting over 80 key guests and exhibitors from 13 countries and regions to discuss industry growth [1][3] Group 1: Industry Support Measures - Dongguan plans to allocate 120 million yuan (approximately 17 million USD) in industrial support funds to enhance the toy and animation industry through five key areas: industrial ecology, market expansion, content creation, animation industry, and resource assurance [3][5] - In terms of industrial ecology, support will be provided for enhancing original design capabilities and brand building, with a maximum subsidy of 3 million yuan (approximately 420,000 USD) for AI-enabled toy applications [5][6] - Market expansion efforts include subsidies of up to 200,000 yuan (approximately 28,000 USD) for participation in key domestic and international exhibitions, as well as support for cross-border e-commerce initiatives [5][6] Group 2: Project Promotion - Dongguan is recognized as the largest toy production base in China, producing approximately 85% of the country's toys and 25% of global animation derivatives [7][9] - Shipa Town and Chashan Town presented their project proposals, highlighting their advantages in the toy industry and inviting enterprises to invest [7][9] - Shipa Town's toy industry cluster accounts for about 10% of the national output value, with plans to create a unique industrial town that integrates cultural and ecological elements [9][11] Group 3: Future Development Plans - Chashan Town focuses on AI-driven toy development, with a plush toy industry cluster valued over 10 billion yuan (approximately 1.4 billion USD) and an average annual growth rate of 12% over the past three years [11] - The town plans to implement a 10 million yuan (approximately 1.4 million USD) incentive fund to enhance various aspects of the industry, including technology and market development [11] - Dongguan will continue to enhance its support for the animation and toy industry, optimizing the business environment and ensuring rapid project implementation [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new consumption industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][30] Core Viewpoints - The beauty industry saw a GMV growth of 31.7% year-on-year in July on Douyin, with the total GMV for beauty products ranging from 150 billion to 200 billion yuan [4] - The trend in the beauty market reflects a dual pattern of price segment downtrend and high-end consumption coexistence, with 68.1% of GMV coming from products priced below 200 yuan [4] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing growth driven by successful events like the PTS Beijing International Trendy Toy Exhibition, highlighting the importance of IP operation for long-term growth [4] - International outdoor sports brands are increasingly entering the Chinese market, indicating a rising demand from Chinese consumers [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption industry tracked from August 4 to August 8 shows a weekly increase of 4.23% in the textile and apparel index and 1.70% in the beauty care index, while the retail index decreased by 0.38% [7] Key Industry Data - In June, retail sales for textile and apparel increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cosmetics saw a decline of 2.3% [12] - Gold and silver jewelry retail sales increased by 6.1% year-on-year in June [13] Investment Analysis Opinions - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [19] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty, such as 毛戈平, 巨子生物, and 上美股份; in gold jewelry, brands like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基; in trendy toys, companies like 泡泡玛特; and in ready-to-drink tea, brands like 蜜雪集团 and 古茗 [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the underestimated commercial value of character-based IP and the company's long-term operational capabilities, suggesting that the market has not fully recognized the potential of these IPs [8][9] - The company has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in its business model, particularly during challenging market conditions, and is now positioned for international expansion and value reassessment [9][17] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth driven by the success of key IPs like Labubu and Molly, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 raised to 100.3 billion, 144.9 billion, and 182.9 billion RMB respectively [9][15] Summary by Sections 1. Character-based IP Commercial Value Exploration - The report discusses the commercial value and lifecycle of character-based IP, highlighting that its value is not strictly tied to content depth, and that successful IPs can achieve high audience engagement and longevity [21][22] - It notes that the lifecycle of quality character-based IPs is often longer than market expectations, with examples like Molly showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [21][22] 2. Business Model Challenges and Company Resilience - The report outlines the company's stock price trajectory since its IPO, detailing phases of growth and decline, and emphasizes the company's strong organizational resilience during market downturns [16][17] - It identifies the challenges faced by character-based IP businesses, including demand fluctuations and the need for effective inventory management [9][17] 3. Internationalization and Long-term Value Reassessment - The report highlights the company's recovery and growth in domestic operations post-pandemic, as well as the emerging potential in international markets [9][17] - It points out that the recent success of Labubu as a global phenomenon has significantly contributed to the company's revenue and valuation recovery [9][17] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report provides detailed profit forecasts, projecting substantial revenue growth driven by the company's diverse IP portfolio and effective operational strategies [9][15] - It suggests that the company is well-positioned to leverage its IP matrix for sustained financial performance, with a target market capitalization reflecting a 28% upside potential based on projected earnings [9][15]

Core Insights - Dongguan is establishing a special fund for the潮玩 (trendy toys) and animation industry, with a planned investment of 120 million yuan to support development across various sectors [1][8] - The潮玩 industry in Dongguan has seen significant growth, with 112 large-scale enterprises generating nearly 23.8 billion yuan in revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 19% [2][3] - The city has been recognized as "China's潮玩 Capital," and the潮玩 production cluster in Shipaizhen is a key area, contributing about 10% of the national潮玩 output [3][7] Industry Development - The 15th China International Animation Copyright Protection and Trade Expo showcased over 2,000 animation IPs and 600 key enterprises, highlighting the industry's international engagement [1][2] - Dongguan's潮玩 industry has transitioned from OEM to ODM and is now moving towards OBM, with local companies beginning to develop their own IP products [3][9] - The local government is focusing on enhancing original design capabilities and brand building within the潮玩 and animation sectors [8][9] Economic Impact - The潮玩 industry in Dongguan is supported by a robust supply chain and has a significant export presence, with toy exports reaching 9.97 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 6.3% increase [2][16] - The local government is implementing measures to facilitate market expansion, including subsidies for participation in domestic and international exhibitions [8][15] - Dongguan's潮玩 production cluster has surpassed a total output value of 10 billion yuan for the first time, indicating a strong economic footprint [7][8] Talent and Innovation - The region is investing in talent development, collaborating with educational institutions to create specialized training programs for toy design [15] - Companies are leveraging innovative practices, such as integrating IP development with product sales, to enhance market competitiveness [9][15] - The local潮玩 industry is characterized by a high degree of clusterization, with a focus on technological innovation and rapid response to global market demands [14][15]