专题：投资好时节 嘉实基金2026投资策略峰会 1月23日，嘉实基金2026年度投资策略峰会在上海举行。在本次峰会特别设置的嘉实基金"投资好时 节"与小红书"万物有时节"线上联名消费专场——《既要"人感消费"，也要"人感投资"》圆桌对话中， 财经博主@晓鸥姐姐担纲主持，与嘉实优享生活基金经理郭弘毅、微博财经达人@奶员外、小红书商业 金融行业负责人木暮三位嘉宾，就新消费趋势、传统消费价值及投资实践等议题展开了深度探讨。 2026年投资展望：传统消费迎来拐点，新消费聚焦成长 针对2026年投资布局，郭弘毅提出了清晰的"双主线"逻辑。一方面，传统消费领域或迎来中期拐点机 会。在过去几年持续承压后，诸多行业出现供给收缩态势（企业纷纷缩减资本开支），而需求端已显现 从高端消费逐步复苏的迹象；叠加当前估值与机构持仓均处于历史低位，该领域的风险收益比具备显著 吸引力。另一方面，新消费领域将持续涌现结构性成长机会，那些能通过产品创新、商业模式革新，精 准满足新一代消费者需求变化的品牌，拥有较强的高成长潜力。 木暮从用户行为视角补充说明，消费与金融的边界正日益模糊，呈现出"消费资产化"的鲜明趋势。例 如，黄金被视作"佩戴在身上 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing and Technology Exports - Chinese "New Energy Vehicles" are rapidly expanding in global markets, showcasing strong growth potential [1] - The "New Energy Equipment" sector is injecting significant green energy capabilities into the global market [3] - Chinese "Industrial Robots" are increasingly entering global production facilities, while "Home Appliances" are experiencing explosive sales worldwide [5] Group 2: Biopharmaceuticals - Chinese "Innovative Drugs" are transitioning from a "follower" position to a "leader" in the global pharmaceutical landscape [7] Group 3: Future Industries - Chinese advancements in "Artificial Intelligence" and "Humanoid Robots" are making strides on the international stage [9] - The "Commercial Space" sector is pursuing ambitious goals in space exploration [11] - The "Low-altitude Economy" is positioning China as a global leader in this emerging market [13] Group 4: Consumer and Service Exports - Chinese "Smart Home" products are becoming integrated into overseas households, enhancing global consumer experiences [15] - The "IP Trendy Toys" sector is showcasing the charm of Chinese culture to international audiences [17] Group 5: Financial and Capital Markets - The Chinese "Financial Capital Market" is gaining prominence, highlighting its potential for international investment [19] - "Cross-border E-commerce" is facilitating the entry of "Chinese Quality Goods" into households around the world [19] Conclusion - By 2025, China's outbound ventures are set to open a new chapter, characterized by technological advancements and mutual trust [21]

Group 1: Manufacturing and Technology Exports - Chinese "New Energy Vehicles" are rapidly expanding in global markets [1] - Chinese "New Energy Equipment" is contributing significantly to green energy initiatives [3] - Chinese "Home Appliances" are experiencing explosive sales worldwide [5] - Chinese "Industrial Robots" are increasingly integrated into global production facilities [7] Group 2: Biopharmaceuticals and Future Industries - Chinese "Innovative Drugs" are transitioning from a follower to a leader in the global market [9] - Chinese "Artificial Intelligence and Humanoid Robots" are making strides internationally [11] - Chinese "Commercial Space" ventures are pursuing ambitious goals in aerospace [13] - Chinese "Low-altitude Economy" is positioning itself as a global leader [15] Group 3: Consumer and Service Exports - Chinese "Smart Home Products" are becoming part of overseas households [17] - Chinese "IP Toys" are gaining popularity in international markets [19] - Chinese "Cross-border E-commerce" is facilitating the entry of "Chinese Good Products" into homes worldwide [21] Group 4: Financial and Capital Markets - Chinese "Financial Capital Markets" are showcasing significant growth and potential [23] Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2025, China's outbound ventures are set to enter a new chapter, emphasizing technology, brand trust, and collaborative growth [25]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the new consumption market has a rotation and rebound configuration opportunity, driven by three main logics: fundamental, financial, and style rotation [9][10][12] - The fundamental aspect indicates that under the backdrop of US-China trade friction, there is a strong expectation for policies to boost domestic demand, which catalyzes the consumption style market [9][10] - Financially, global capital reallocation and valuation recovery in Hong Kong stocks are noted, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a resonance in consumer sectors [10][12] Group 2 - The report discusses structural changes in the Chinese consumption market driven by demographic shifts and weakening consumer confidence, with the middle-income group expanding and the "Z generation" becoming the main consumer force [28][29] - It emphasizes that the economic transformation and declining real estate cycle have led to a cautious consumer sentiment, affecting spending behavior [38][40] Group 3 - The report identifies three key trends in new consumption: "emotional consumption," "value-for-money consumption," and "service and experience consumption," each with distinct growth drivers and investment opportunities [48][59][68] - "Emotional consumption" is characterized by high margins and resilience to economic cycles, with significant growth in IP economy and pet economy sectors [48][51] - "Value-for-money consumption" is driven by rational consumption tendencies and supply chain optimization, leading to the rise of discount retail and bulk snack industries [59][62] Group 4 - The report notes that the service and experience consumption sector is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in outdoor sports, as GDP per capita surpasses 10,000 USD, influenced by the "single economy" and changing consumption preferences [68][71] - It highlights that outdoor apparel and footwear sales are projected to see significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 87.3% expected in 2024 [68][71]

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preemptive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [2][8] - The focus for 2026 will be on the liquidity turning point's impact on asset rotation, with a gradual shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental trend-driven asset logic in domestic markets [8][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends as a tactical timing cue for investment strategies, suggesting a balanced allocation between equities and bonds in the first quarter of 2026 [8][11] Group 2: Industry Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand growth and external potential release, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements [2][15] - The young manufacturing industry is highlighted for its global supply chain opportunities, emphasizing the irreversible trend of globalization and the competitive landscape for Chinese enterprises [3][14] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including defense, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, driven by government policies and market demand [15][16] Group 3: Economic and Market Outlook - Economic demand is expected to stabilize and recover in 2026, with PPI bottoming out and turning positive, leading to a rotation in industry styles from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - The report predicts that the overall market will see a recovery in corporate earnings, particularly in sectors benefiting from the recovery of industrial product inflation [11][12] - The analysis indicates that the current valuation of cyclical consumer assets remains below historical averages, suggesting potential for future appreciation [12][13]

Core Insights - The rise of adult interest in toys, particularly "trendy toys" with cultural significance and emotional value, is reshaping the toy market [1][4] - The IP (Intellectual Property) trend in trendy toys is becoming a focal point, enhancing the commercial value and cultural symbolism of these products [1][4] Group 1: Definition and Characteristics - "IP trendy toys" are defined as trendy toys with high recognition and independent intellectual property attributes, primarily targeting adults rather than children [5] - Unlike traditional toys, trendy toys emphasize aesthetic and artistic value over playability or educational aspects, often possessing collectible and trendy attributes [5] Group 2: Development History - The trendy toy industry began in the late 1990s, evolving through over two decades to reach a mature development phase [7] - Initially driven by independent designers in Hong Kong, the industry became closely linked to street culture, with a significant rise in local designers in China during the early 2000s [7] - The introduction of the blind box concept from Japan and the explosive growth of brands like Pop Mart since 2016 have marked a period of diversification and prosperity in the IP trendy toy market [7] Group 3: Economic Value and Consumer Insights - The report aims to analyze the economic value and development potential of IP trendy toys, focusing on industry leaders' business models and consumer preferences [4] - Understanding consumer psychological needs and payment motivations is crucial for revealing the key role of IP in trendy toy licensing and innovation [4] Group 4: Future Trends - The concept of "companion economy" is central to redefining the trendy toy 3.0 era, creating a product system that integrates physical, virtual, and data elements [9] - The dynamic life form concept aims to upgrade traditional IP into interactive and nurturing digital companions, catering to the emotional and social needs of Generation Z [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently focusing on the development of IP trendy toys, aiming to enhance product offerings and increase market share to provide stable value returns to investors [1] Group 1 - The company's core strategy is centered around the IP trendy toy business [1] - The company is concentrating its efforts on creating blockbuster products and improving market share [1] - The company does not consider venture capital-related fields as its core business direction at this stage [1] Group 2 - The company commits to timely information disclosure in accordance with legal regulations if there are significant developments in new business areas in the future [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy - The 22nd UBS Securities China A-Share Seminar focused on the theme of "Winning in Change" and discussed the transformation and development trends of the Chinese economy, highlighting the long-term investment potential of the Chinese stock market [1] - Experts noted that China's fiscal policy is currently quite proactive, with a high broad deficit ratio, indicating limited room for significant further expansion. Monetary policy measures have been introduced, but the effectiveness will require time to observe [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as the beginning of a new economic development cycle, emphasizing the cultivation of "new quality productivity" centered on technological innovation and emerging industries [1] Group 2: Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market has shown strong performance, with increasing confidence from investors, particularly overseas, in diversifying their asset allocations towards non-USD assets [2] - Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are entering a profit recovery cycle, with expectations that growth styles will lead, while value styles will rotate in phases [2] - Institutional positions in the A-share market remain low, indicating significant potential for incremental capital inflow as mainstream institutional funds enter the market [2] Group 3: ETF Market Growth - China's ETF market has seen continuous growth, surpassing 5 trillion yuan in size as of August 25, driven by policy support, improved market sentiment, product innovation, and rising investment demand [3] - By 2035, the ETF market in China is projected to reach 50 trillion yuan, potentially becoming the second-largest market globally [3] - A significant portion of Chinese entrepreneurs are beginning to utilize AI technology, indicating substantial market opportunities within the AI industry [3] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Opportunities - The Z generation has emerged as the new consumer force, with preferences for personalized and interactive services, prompting brands to innovate in product offerings [6] - Despite low economic sentiment, there are structural opportunities driven by emotional consumption and supply innovation, particularly in sectors like IP toys and beauty products [6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.8% year-on-year from January to July, with certain segments like IP toys expected to reach a market size of 200 billion yuan by 2025 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the resilience and potential of the Chinese consumer market amidst global economic adjustments and uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand as a key growth engine for the economy [4]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The 15th Consumer Goods Annual Conference hosted by Guotai Junan took place in Shanghai, focusing on the theme of "New Consumption Era" and gathering industry experts, executives from listed companies, and investment institutions to discuss various topics related to consumer behavior and investment opportunities [2]. - Nearly 20 prominent guests from the consumer industry and around 100 listed companies participated, showcasing a rich exchange of investment research ideas [2]. Group 2: Key Insights from Presentations - The consumer landscape is undergoing significant changes driven by the younger generation, with evolving consumption behaviors leaning towards personalization, refinement, and emotional engagement, creating numerous niche opportunities [4]. - The traditional consumption sector is expected to reach a turning point by the end of the year, with stable categories like beverages, beer, and condiments presenting long-term investment opportunities [7]. - Emotional and experiential consumption is accelerating, with industries focusing on emotional value and experience addressing consumer pain points, leading to rapid realization of commercial value [9]. - The home appliance sector is witnessing a shift towards high-value product designs that cater to emotional recognition and lifestyle needs, alongside advancements in AI and robotics transforming product forms [12]. - The furniture sector is experiencing marginal improvements in revenue growth due to supportive policies and a strengthening housing market, while export performance is beginning to show signs of differentiation [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities aims to leverage its professional advantages and platform resources to enhance market influence and pricing capabilities, aspiring to build a globally impactful investment research platform [4]. - The conference serves as a significant platform for understanding industry trends and capturing investment opportunities, having gained widespread attention and recognition in the capital market over the past fourteen years [22].