- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the observation of industry diffusion indices; Detailed Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in diffusion indices for various industries, ranking them based on their performance. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Advancing Stocks}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[6][14][27] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Detailed Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factor scores, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model has achieved substantial excess returns by capturing trading information, though it has faced challenges in certain market conditions[7][14][34] Model Backtest Results - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.72%, Excess Return: 0.11%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -2.26%[32] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 1.07%, Excess Return: 0.44%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -3.71%[37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed using GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level trading data; Detailed Construction Process: The factor scores are calculated based on the GRU network's output, which evaluates the trading data to rank industries. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant improvements in certain industries, indicating its effectiveness in capturing trading information[7][14][35] Factor Backtest Results - GRU Industry Factor, Top Industries: Automotive (2.84), Steel (1.85), Media (1.48), Power Equipment and New Energy (1.35), Communication (0.88), Coal (0.66)[7][14][35]

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment in China for January to April 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with private investment growing only 0.2%, indicating a mixed recovery in investment across different sectors and regions [1][2]. Investment Overview - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,702.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [1][2]. - The industrial investment grew by 11.7%, with mining investment increasing by 6.3% and manufacturing investment by 8.8% [1][2]. - The service sector experienced a decline of 0.2% in investment, highlighting challenges in this area [1][2]. Sector Analysis - First industry investment was 297.1 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - Second industry investment totaled 51,778 billion yuan, with notable growth in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply at 25.5% [1][2]. - Third industry infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water) grew by 5.8%, with water management investment surging by 30.7% [1][2]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment grew by 1.3%, while the central region saw a 4.8% increase, and the western region grew by 5.3% [1][2]. - The northeastern region had the highest growth at 7.6%, indicating a regional disparity in investment performance [1][2]. Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment increased by 3.9%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises rose by 9.2% [1][2]. - Foreign enterprises, however, saw a significant decline in investment by 11.4%, reflecting potential challenges in attracting foreign capital [1][2].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 量化周报 上证指数、上证 50 确认日线级别上涨 上证指数、上证 50 确认日线级别上涨。本周（5.12-5.16），大盘先扬后 抑，上证指数全周收涨 0.76%。在此背景下，上证指数、上证 50、汽车、 轻工、纺服、交运等纷纷确认日线级别上涨。这基本意味着贸易战对市场 的冲击已经结束了，市场再次回档前期低点的概率基本不存在了。由于市 场才刚刚确认日线级别上涨，还有很多指数和板块没有确认，因此，我们 认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，投资者可逆势布局。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛 市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 8 个行业周 线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个普 涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日，A 股景气指数为 21.19，相 比 2023 年底上升 15. ...

证券研究报告 宏观 关税降级带动出口跳升、生产回暖 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 18 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 5月12日中美发布联声明，将4月2日以来双方加征的125%关税降至34%， 并对其中 24%的关税暂停 90 天实施，仅加征 10%的关税。上周港口高频 指标显示出口活跃度较快回升，到港船舶数量同比由前一周的-11%回正至 1%，或显示抢出口和产能出海的需求有望继续支撑中国出口。出口需求亦 带动工业生产同比回暖，基建活动走强，但地产及建筑活动放缓。 高频经济活动跟踪 港口高频数据显示上周出口活跃度低位跳升，集装箱美线运价上涨，工业 生产及基建活动同比亦有回暖，地产成交同比增速回落。出行及消费方面， 上周 18 城地铁客运量同比上升 0.9%，乘用车零售同比回升 37.3%；工业 生产方面，焦化/高炉开工率同比回升 2.3/2.6 个百分点，水泥企业开工率同 比回升 6.2 个百分点；建筑钢材成交量同比仍在-21.1%的偏弱区间。出口方 面，HDET 高频指标显示 5 月 1-17 日出口或较 4 月回落，但上周降幅有所 改善。地产方面，44 城新房成交面积同比从前一周的 14.4%回落至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index shows positive trends, with significant gains in constituent stocks, indicating a favorable investment environment for dividend assets [1][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of May 19, 2025, the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index increased by 0.22%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Ninghu Expressway (+3.28%) and Huaneng Hydropower (+2.06%) [1]. - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) showed resilience in the market, closing in the green despite broader market conditions [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF recorded a turnover of 1.02% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 57.13 million yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF averaged daily transactions of 105 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity [3]. - The latest fund size of the ETF reached 5.566 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.0793 million yuan recently, and a total of 47.8321 million yuan net inflow over the past nine trading days [3]. Group 3: Top Holdings and Market Characteristics - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index accounted for 37.43% of the index, including major companies like China Shenhua and Gree Electric [3]. - Dividend assets are characterized by stable cash flow returns, lower volatility, and long-term compounding effects, making them attractive for long-term investment strategies [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Current market focus is on sectors such as new consumption, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional versus emerging consumption [4]. - The political signals from the recent Politburo meeting are unclear, but there is a preference for high-dividend defensive stocks, particularly in the white goods sector [4]. - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities through corresponding CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF linked funds [4].

Core Insights - In the first four months of 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,702.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [2][4] - Private fixed asset investment grew by only 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a sluggish performance in this sector [2][4] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry was 297.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [3][4] - The secondary industry saw an investment of 51,778 billion yuan, growing by 11.7% year-on-year, with notable growth in manufacturing and energy sectors [3][4] - The tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment (excluding energy sectors) increasing by 5.8% [3][4] Investment by Region - Eastern regions reported a year-on-year investment growth of 1.3%, while central, western, and northeastern regions grew by 4.8%, 5.3%, and 7.6% respectively [3][4] Investment by Ownership Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment increased by 3.9%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises rose by 9.2%. In contrast, foreign enterprises saw a significant decline of 11.4% [3][4][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its performance, particularly in relation to Southbound capital flows and the differences in financial reporting between Hong Kong and A-shares [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Increased Southbound Capital Allocation**: Southbound capital's allocation to Hong Kong stocks has significantly increased, rising from 14.5% in Q4 2024 to 19.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a growing interest in the Hong Kong market [2]. - **Complexity in Financial Reporting**: The differences in fiscal year reporting and the non-mandatory nature of quarterly reports in Hong Kong complicate performance analysis. Companies can choose their fiscal year start date, leading to inconsistencies [3][4]. - **Performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect**: In 2024, the overall profitability of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks outperformed A-shares, with revenue growth of 2.4% and profit growth of 7.4%, indicating strong growth potential [1][6]. - **Weak Capital Expenditure**: Hong Kong companies experienced a significant negative growth in capital expenditure compared to 2023, reflecting a weak overall expansion sentiment in China, which may limit future profitability [1][8]. - **Promising Sectors**: The financial, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceutical sectors showed strong growth potential, with notable contributions to net profit margins and asset turnover [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Leading Companies**: The concentration of leading companies in Hong Kong significantly affects performance analysis. For instance, Tencent contributed nearly 25% to year-on-year performance growth, while Vanke negatively impacted results by about 20% [10]. - **Sector Performance**: Key sectors showing improvement in both revenue and profit growth include TMT, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors performed poorly [9][11]. - **Public Fund Holdings**: In Q1 2025, public funds increased their holdings in sectors such as retail (Alibaba), electronics (SMIC, Xiaomi), media (Tencent), pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals (Zijin Mining), indicating institutional confidence in these areas [12]. This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the Hong Kong stock market and the implications for investors.

分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 策 略 研 究 华福证券 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 79、38、9、0 只。其中，79 只见底形态的主题指 数多为医药生物行业（29 只）；而 38 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多 为国防军工（7 只）、通信（5 只）和有色金属（5 只）。9 只主升 ...

Suspension and Resumption of Trading - *ST Mingjia has its delisting risk warning removed and continues to implement other risk warnings, resulting in stock suspension [1] - ST Shengda has its other risk warning removed, leading to stock suspension [1] - *ST Aonong has its delisting risk warning and other risk warnings removed, resulting in stock suspension [2] - Electric Investment Energy plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire Baiyinhua Coal Power equity, leading to stock resumption. The target company's main business includes coal, aluminum, and electricity production and sales [2] - Binhai Energy plans to acquire 100% equity of Cangzhou Xuyang Chemical Co., Ltd., resulting in stock resumption [3] - Guangyang Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% equity of Yinqiu Technology, leading to stock suspension [4] Share Buybacks and Increases - Siyuan Electric plans to repurchase shares worth between 300 million to 500 million yuan [5] - Tunnel Co., Ltd.'s controlling shareholder plans to increase company shares by 250 million to 500 million yuan [6] - Jianghan New Materials plans to repurchase shares worth between 200 million to 400 million yuan [7] Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - Qunxing Toys' subsidiary signed a 113 million yuan computing power service agreement with Tencent [8] - Zhongwei Semiconductor's end customer is Yushu [9] - Xinhongye's wholly-owned subsidiary Jiangsu Huaguang won a bid for "Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Plant Units 3 and 4 and Zhejiang Jin Qimen Nuclear Power Plant Units 1 and 2 K3 control cable equipment procurement," with a total bid amount of 102 million yuan [9] - Lianrui New Materials plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 720 million yuan for high-performance high-speed substrate ultra-pure spherical powder material projects, high thermal conductivity high-purity spherical powder material projects, and to supplement working capital [9] - Newhan New Materials' DFBP new capacity has been verified by PEEK manufacturers and has begun bulk supply [10] - AVIC High-tech's composite materials company plans to invest 918 million yuan to enhance the capability of aviation composite material components [11] - Wentai Technology plans to sell assets worth 4.389 billion yuan, strategically exiting the product integration business to focus resources on semiconductor business development [11] - Guangbai Co., Ltd. plans to jointly invest with China Duty Free Group to establish Guangzhou Duty-Free Store Co., Ltd. [12] - Baiyun Airport, along with China Duty Free Group, Guangbai Co., Ltd., and Lingnan Holdings, plans to jointly invest to establish a company for operating Guangzhou's city duty-free store business, with a registered capital of 45 million yuan [12]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to show stronger resilience, reflecting a "self-centered" approach, with positive signals from the easing of Sino-US trade tensions [1] - The recent joint statement from the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks has alleviated potential pressures on domestic economic growth, leading to an upward revision of corporate profit expectations [1] - Investment recommendations include focusing on defensive dividend sectors, technology narratives, and consumer sectors supported by policy initiatives [1] Group 2 - After the release of short-term profit-taking pressure, the A-share market is anticipated to return to a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2] - The introduction of floating rate funds marks the practical phase of fee reform, with a recovery in real financing demand expected to be reflected in upcoming social financing data [2] - The issuance of special government bonds and the increase in central bank support for financial companies indicate that market downside risks are manageable [2] Group 3 - The index is expected to continue oscillating, with sector rotation likely to persist due to easing trade tensions and domestic demand expansion policies [3] - Short-term focus areas include export chains, self-sufficiency sectors, and consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in services [3] - High dividend sectors are projected to maintain investment value, with attention on banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation following recent monetary easing [3]