Core Insights - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) reported a revenue of 17.274 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.25% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached 2.625 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.95% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.23 yuan per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) announced plans to shut down part of its aluminum profile production capacity, specifically around 120,000 tons per year, to optimize resource allocation and focus on high-value-added industries, promoting high-quality development transformation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Production Capacity** - The company currently has an aluminum profile production capacity of 320,000 tons per year - The planned shutdown will affect approximately 120,000 tons per year of this capacity [1] - **Utilization and Sales Impact** - The affected production equipment was put into operation between 2002 and 2012 - The capacity utilization rate of the equipment is about 59% - The expected sales volume for the year 2024 is around 70,000 tons, contributing approximately 4% to the company's total revenue [1] - **Equipment Disposal** - The equipment being shut down will be disposed of through public bidding - Some auxiliary equipment will be dismantled and preserved for use as spare parts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to EU sanctions on Russia and political events in France and Ukraine [14][15] - The upward trend of US stocks remains intact, and investors can buy on dips after short - term corrections, supported by tech giants' AI capital expenditure and interest - rate cut expectations [18][19] - For stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices, considering policies to expand service consumption and industrial profit data [20][22] - In the bond market, unilateral long positions should be taken with caution. Investors with stock positions can consider long bonds to hedge potential stock price corrections [24][25] - For commodities, different investment suggestions are provided for each category based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. France's Prime Minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia [12][13][14] - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to these events [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's data center revenue in the last fiscal quarter was lackluster, and the revenue guidance was not impressive. Fed official Williams hinted at a possible adjustment in interest - rate policy [16][17] - The short - term adjustment of US stocks is to release valuation pressure, and the upward trend remains intact. Investors can buy on dips [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and jointly formulate measures to promote service exports with relevant departments [20] - In July, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices [21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3799 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan [23][24] - Unless the stock market continues to adjust or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose, treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous growth. Unilateral long positions should be taken with caution [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in October and November are 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons respectively [26] - The USDA will release its export sales report. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the price trend. The price of soybean meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [27] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. Malaysia has formulated an emergency plan for agricultural exports according to EU regulations [28][29] - The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for more data [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress is 60.3%, and the growth progress of US cotton is slow but the quality is high [31][32][33] - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, which will support the price in the short term. Zheng cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner [34] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. In August, the retail and wholesale of passenger cars increased year - on - year [35][37][38] - Steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, and a short - term volatile trading strategy is recommended [38][39] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the southwest market is stable. The coking coal futures price is expected to adjust in the short term but has strong support below [40][42] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - From August 21 - 27, the开机率 of the corn starch industry decreased slightly, and the inventory also decreased slightly. The current inventory is at a high level, and the seasonal de - stocking inflection point may be postponed [43] - The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to widen it [44] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of August 22, the inventory of corn in the northern port continued to decline, and the grain inventory in the southern port increased slightly month - on - month [45] - Short positions can be held for a while, and attention should be paid to factors affecting supply and demand [45] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In the first half of 2025, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had significant growth in revenue and net profit. The short - term trend of pig futures is expected to be volatile and weak, and investors can pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity [47][48] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In July, the coal import volume of the Philippines decreased. The price of steam coal is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments in FY25 reached 198.4 million tons, and its cost decreased. The iron ore price is expected to move in a volatile manner, and the iron - making volume is expected to decline next week and then rebound [51][52] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang have entered the sugar - increasing period. The price of red date futures is expected to move in a narrow range around 11,400 yuan/ton, and investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $38.74/ton. The US may list lead as a critical mineral, and the regeneration rate in September may decline [56] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $4.61/ton. Zijin Mining's zinc production increased. The stock market decline affected zinc prices, and the domestic supply is loosening [58][59] - It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities [60] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry proposed to resist price competition and strengthen capacity self - discipline. The Bougouni lithium mine in Mali was attacked [61][62] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive - spread trading [63] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The second - stage pumping operation of the Kakula mine is about to start. Canada is researching a financing plan for key mineral projects [64][65] - The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [67] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel ore production to 42 million tons this year. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline in September - October, and the nickel price is expected to have short - term band - trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [69][71] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - From August 16 - 22, US EIA commercial crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. The oil price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [72][73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 27, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda is expected to remain stable in the near future [74][75] - Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [76] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The pulp market is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC futures price is expected to move in a volatile manner [79][81] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From August 20 - 27, the inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The styrene market in September is expected to improve marginally, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [82][83] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with individual slight decreases. The inventory of bottle chips is accelerating to decline, and attention should be paid to the pressure on processing fees from plant restart and new capacity in September [84][86] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest 3.97 billion euros to upgrade its ports. The spot freight rate is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][88][89]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum reported a net profit of 2.625 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.95% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 17.274 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 10.25% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.23 yuan per share [1]

Group 1: Dividend Policy - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend in 2025, amounting to approximately CNY 1.11 billion, which represents about 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Resource Expansion - The company is enhancing its resource assurance capabilities by successfully bidding for exploration rights at the Zhaotong Sunbaba bauxite mine and actively pursuing exploration rights in Wenshan and Heqing [2] - Future plans include accelerating the transition from exploration to mining and participating in resource exploration in Yunnan Province and neighboring regions such as Laos and Vietnam [2] Group 3: Production Capacity - The current production capacity for electrolytic aluminum is 3.08 million tons, with no expansion plans at this time [2] - The company has successfully launched a 50,000-ton aluminum resource comprehensive utilization project, establishing an automated integrated recycling aluminum demonstration line [2] Group 4: Inventory and Capital Expenditure - The company maintains a low inventory strategy for alumina, leveraging its position as a major supplier in the region to keep inventory at reasonable levels based on market conditions [2] - Future capital expenditures will focus on technological innovation, mineral resources, high-end advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives, with an emphasis on resource acquisition and upgrading equipment technology [2] Group 5: Power Supply - The power supply situation in Yunnan Province is favorable this year, with the company operating at full production capacity [2] - Electricity is procured through market-based transactions, and the overall cost of electricity remains controllable [2]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that China Aluminum's (02600) net income for the first half of the year remained stable at 7.07 billion RMB, while the second quarter saw a 26% year-on-year decline to 3.5 billion RMB [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin increased to 17.6%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.7 percentage points [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.123 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 30% [1] Profit Forecast and Target Price - Macquarie raised its net profit forecasts for China Aluminum for the years 2025 to 2027 by 13.1%, 43.5%, and 43.2% respectively [1] - The target price for the stock has been increased to 8.1 HKD, with the rating upgraded from "Neutral" to "Outperform" [1]

Group 1: Macro Insights - Industrial enterprises' profits continued to improve, with July's profit decline narrowing to 1.5% year-on-year from 4.3% in June, driven by a significant rebound in the computer and electronics sector [2] - The revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises slightly decreased to 1.1% in July from 1.6% in June, reflecting a slowdown in industrial production and investment growth [2] - The adjusted profit margin increased to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June, indicating early effects of anti-involution policies on prices [2] Group 2: Fixed Income and Asset Comparison - Domestic equities showed a relative advantage over bonds, although this advantage has decreased recently; A-shares remain undervalued compared to historical levels [3] - The Hong Kong stock market has lagged behind A-shares, potentially benefiting from liquidity differences following the Fed's dovish stance [3] - In the context of a rate-cutting cycle, small-cap and cyclical sectors in the U.S. may perform relatively well, while leading tech stocks are expected to remain a long-term focus [3] Group 3: Consumer and Technology Insights - The "AI+" initiative is expected to drive significant changes in the technology consumption sector, with a focus on smart hardware and infrastructure [4][6] - Recommended investment areas include AI hardware such as smart glasses and robotic vacuum cleaners, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [4] - The upcoming Meta Connect conference is anticipated to showcase new AI/AR glasses, indicating a growing interest and investment in this product category [5] Group 4: Company Performance Highlights - YTO Express reported a revenue of 35.88 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, but a net profit decline of 7.9% due to intense price competition in the express delivery sector [7] - Wuliangye's H1 2025 revenue reached 52.77 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 2.3%, despite facing challenges in the second quarter [7] - Shanxi Coal Industry's H1 2025 revenue was 77.98 billion yuan, down 14.19% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 31.18%, primarily due to falling coal prices [9] Group 5: Sector-Specific Developments - The AI application wave is expected to accelerate following the release of a national guideline on AI, marking a shift towards deeper integration with the real economy [6] - The food and beverage sector is seeing a shift in consumer preferences, with companies like Baoli Foods reporting stable performance amid competitive pressures [12] - The energy sector, particularly coal, is anticipated to benefit from potential Fed rate cuts, supporting cash flow stability for leading companies [9][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved stable performance with a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.19% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has a strong integrated supply chain advantage, which helps maintain stable production and performance amid high volatility in aluminum prices and costs. In the first half of 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 585,400 tons, remaining stable year-on-year, while sales increased by approximately 2% [4] - The company is expanding its upstream resource capabilities and electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, with a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to be completed in about 10 months, increasing its capacity from 1.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.20% [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.569 billion yuan, 5.857 billion yuan, and 6.495 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.26, and 1.40 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.12%, with a net profit of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-over-year [2]. - The report highlights that the high aluminum prices are expected to support stable growth in the company's performance in the future [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with a slight decrease of 0.49 percentage points year-over-year, while Q2 gross margin improved to 17.60%, up 1.74 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The report notes a significant reduction in power costs due to falling coal prices, which is expected to enhance profits [4]. - The outlook for aluminum prices in H2 2025 is optimistic, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from sectors like solar energy and automotive [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-over-year but an increase of 8.65% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, down 26.18% year-over-year and slightly down 0.13% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with Q2 showing an improvement to 17.60% [3]. - The report attributes the increase in gross margin to lower energy and alumina raw material costs [3]. Production and Capacity - The company aims for a total alumina production of 16.81 million tons and aluminum production of 7.8 million tons for the year [4]. - The self-sufficiency rate for alumina ore significantly increased by 6% to a five-year high [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.11 billion yuan, which represents about 30% of its net profit for H1 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 15.06 billion yuan, 15.66 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively [6]. - The target price for the company is set at 10.56 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 times for 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices have continued to rise, with the current price at $2615 per ton, reflecting a 0.42% increase from the opening price [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On August 27, LME aluminum futures opened at $2635.0, reached a high of $2646.0, a low of $2594.5, and closed at $2603.5, marking a decrease of 1.35% [1] Aluminum Market News - As of August 27, LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; total aluminum inventory increased by 3,175 tons to 481,250 tons [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum warehouse receipts were at 57,351 tons, an increase of 1,077 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.9, with an import loss of 1,431.43 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 1,312.81 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1]