Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "two warehouse" function overlap policy by Huangdao Customs has significantly improved the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of supplying domestic low-sulfur fuel oil for international shipping vessels in Qingdao [1][3][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "two warehouse" function overlap allows fuel oil storage tanks to simultaneously serve as both bonded warehouses and export supervision warehouses, simplifying the process of transferring fuel oil from export supervision to bonded status [3][4]. - This policy change has eliminated the need for physical transfer operations, reducing operational complexity from "two in, two out" to "one in, one out," thereby lowering costs for shipping companies [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - It is estimated that the implementation of the "two warehouse" function overlap can save shipping companies over 20 million yuan annually in related costs [4]. - Over the past three years, the total supply of fuel oil in the Qingdao area has exceeded 7 million tons, indicating a robust growth in the supply oil industry [4]. Group 3: Future Developments - Huangdao Customs plans to continue releasing policy benefits related to the "two warehouse" function overlap, cross-district direct supply of fuel oil, and fuel oil blending to further support the regional shipping fuel supply industry [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.75 CNY based on a 2025 estimated P/E ratio of 43 times [2][3]. Core Views - The domestic polylactic acid (PLA) industry is facing intensified competition, leading to downward pressure on product prices and profit margins. The company's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.25, 0.32, and 0.42 CNY per share, respectively [2][9]. - Despite achieving record sales volumes, the company's profitability is under pressure due to price declines in PLA products. The company is focusing on increasing production efficiency and exploring new applications, particularly in the rapidly growing 3D printing sector [9][10]. - The report highlights that the company's sales of pure PLA and modified PLA increased by 34.20% and 4.80% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to a historical high in total sales volume [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 753 million CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 1,030 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.8% [7][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a decline in 2024, with projections of 52 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 45.1% [7][12]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 13.0% in 2025, with a net margin of 5.0% [7][12]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the PLA import pressure may ease due to recent tariff increases on imports from the U.S., which could impact the overall import volume of PLA into China [9][10]. - The company is actively developing specialized resins for the 3D printing market, which has seen a significant demand increase, with sales in this segment expected to grow by 185.67% [9][10].

| | | | 燃料油早报 | | --- | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/12 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/04/30 | 394.65 | 422.85 | -0.52 | 580.80 | -157.95 | 18.60 | 28.20 | | 2025/05/06 | 380.62 | 426.34 | -2.19 | 571.31 | -144.97 | 16.94 | 45.72 | | 2025/05/07 | 376.49 | 422.72 | -1.76 | 558.93 | -136.21 | 16.36 | 46.23 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is implementing a positive and negative list to ensure compliance with the Central Eight Regulations, aiming to clarify what is permissible and what is prohibited for party members and cadres [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation of Regulations - The negative list includes 12 categories and 124 prohibitive clauses, while the positive list outlines 11 categories and 75 permissible actions, providing clear guidelines for party members [1][2]. - The initiative is designed to address common issues identified in the supervision and disciplinary review processes, focusing on the unique characteristics of state-owned enterprises [1][2]. Group 2: Educational and Supervisory Measures - Various educational methods such as theoretical study groups, themed party days, and expert lectures are being employed to ensure comprehensive understanding and adherence to the regulations [3]. - The company emphasizes strict enforcement of the lists, particularly monitoring key individuals, and employs various methods like special inspections and public reporting to address persistent issues [3]. Group 3: Addressing Violations - Specific measures are being taken to rectify issues related to improper hospitality expenses, with a focus on reviewing expenditures related to business entertainment, meetings, training, welfare, and travel [3]. - Disciplinary actions have been taken against individuals found violating regulations, including the revocation of party positions and formal reprimands [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.66 CNY, based on a projected average PE of 19 times for comparable companies in 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 364 million CNY, 406 million CNY, and 454 million CNY respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory despite a revenue decline in 2024 [4][11]. - The gross margin has significantly improved, with a reported gross margin of 46.2% in 2024, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and pricing power [11]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in recycled materials, with successful project deliveries in chemical recycling technology, which is expected to expand into polyester recycling [11]. - The industrial AI solutions segment has shown resilience, achieving a 12% revenue growth despite overall revenue decline, indicating a strong demand for digital transformation in the industry [11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1,250 million CNY, with a projected decline to 1,074 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1,206 million CNY in 2025 [6]. - The net profit for 2023 was 290 million CNY, expected to rise to 318 million CNY in 2024, and further to 364 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a consistent growth pattern [6]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at 47.3% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to hover around 30% [6][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The asphalt market follows the crude oil price and fluctuates within a certain range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of BU2506 was 3,453 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.07%, and the night - session closing price was 3,459 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The closing price of BU2507 was 3,433 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.05%, and the night - session closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.20% [1]. - **Trading Volumes and Open Interest**: The trading volume of BU2506 was 194,079 lots, an increase of 8,668 lots, and the open interest was 110,071 lots, an increase of 588 lots. The trading volume of BU2507 was 65,850 lots, an increase of 10,638 lots, and the open interest was 131,362 lots, an increase of 4,820 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of asphalt in the whole market were 86,120 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 06) was 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 06 - 07 inter - period spread was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Refinery Data**: As of May 8, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 32.44%, an increase of 2.63% from May 3. The refinery inventory rate was 29.38%, an increase of 0.21% from May 3 [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - **BU - SC Spread**: After a passive expansion, it stabilized and fluctuated [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Remained stable [1]. - **Crude Oil Prices**: Rebounded in the near - term and then fluctuated [8]. - **Low - price Spot**: Continuously rebounded [8]. 3.3 Market Information - **Production**: From May 2 to May 8, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons (9.0%). The cumulative production from January to May was 9.273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,000 tons (0.2%) [13]. - **Factory Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 882,000 tons, a 0.1% increase from May 6. The overall factory inventory increased, with the largest increase in the East China region due to the intermittent resumption and increased production of major refineries [13]. - **Social Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.919 million tons, a 0.1% increase from May 6. The social inventory increased slightly, with a more obvious increase in Shandong due to the arrival of some imported resources [13]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity was 1, indicating a neutral to slightly strong trend, with the range of trend intensity being integers within [- 2,2] [10].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年05月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 01 聚酯芳烃 02 煤化工及烯烃 03 氯碱 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 1、PTA,MEG,短纤 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 3、尿素 2、烧碱,PVC 04 1、玻璃,纯碱 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 2 CONTENTS 05 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年5月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain high, with recent conflicts between India and Pakistan highlighting global uncertainties, leading to a rebound in oil prices. As of May 9, Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively, closing at $63.88 and $61.06 per barrel [1][2] - China's dependence on oil imports is projected to be 72% and natural gas imports at 43% in 2024, indicating significant external challenges to energy security amid geopolitical tensions and tariff conflicts. The "Big Three" oil companies in China are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% in upstream capital expenditure from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ production decisions and the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as these factors could significantly impact the oil supply outlook. The potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could disrupt oil prices [3] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The report highlights multiple disturbances in the oil supply and demand landscape, including trade agreements and geopolitical negotiations that could affect oil prices and supply stability [3] - The report suggests that the long-term oil supply-demand structure remains favorable, supporting a positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service sectors [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, CNOOC, and their respective oil service subsidiaries. It also suggests monitoring leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors, as well as coal chemical leaders and ethylene producers [4]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年5月11日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 沥青市场综述 ◆ 风险提示：关税谈判推进、炼厂超预期复产复工等 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 ◆ 我们的观点：区间震荡，估值高位 ◆ 我们的逻辑：节后BU低开后持续反弹，裂解高位运行。现货方面，北方高价资源部分回落，南方低价船货小幅抬升，南 北价差略微收窄。具体来看，国内沥青总产量为49万吨，环比上周增幅1.9%；分地区来看，东北、西北及西南地区部 分中石油炼厂增产沥青，且山东地炼多有提产复产，从而带动整体供应增加。需求方面，北方高速项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the confirmation of a weak economic recovery, emphasizing the investment value of dividend sectors amidst the current market conditions [3][4]. Market Performance - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.68% to close at 3342 points, while the Wind All A Index increased by 2.32% during the week [4]. - All 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index saw gains, with military, communication, electric equipment, and banking sectors leading the increases, while real estate, electronics, retail, and petrochemicals lagged behind [4]. Macroeconomic Indicators - The April inflation data showed a 0.1% year-on-year decline in CPI, with PPI decreasing by 2.7%, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial product prices [9][11]. - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on global economic conditions, leading to a cautious outlook on future PPI expectations due to anticipated declines in industrial prices [11][12]. Policy Impact - The recent dual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates is seen as a response to the economic slowdown, aiming to support market confidence and stimulate demand [13][14]. - The banking sector has benefited from the policy changes, with dividend stocks becoming a safe haven for investors amid the weak recovery [14]. Investment Strategies - The article outlines four key investment themes: 1. Dividend sectors, particularly banking, are expected to maintain strong investment value due to ongoing weak recovery and potential monetary easing benefits [16]. 2. The TMT sector, driven by digital economy trends and policy support, is projected to remain robust in the medium term, with Hong Kong's TMT companies attracting more investment due to favorable valuations [16]. 3. Cyclical stocks, such as oil and non-ferrous metals, are anticipated to experience valuation recovery as economic conditions improve [16]. 4. Defensive sectors like public utilities and transportation are highlighted for their stable earnings and low valuations, providing a safety margin in volatile markets [17].