Market Review - The equity market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Index fell by 0.9%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.3%, and the STAR Market 50 declined by 3% [1] - The bond market saw an increase, with the 10-year government bond yield settling around 1.83%, down approximately 1.8 basis points, the 7-year yield down about 3 basis points, the 1-year yield down around 3.3 basis points, and the 3-year corporate bond yield down about 4.6 basis points [1] Industry Performance - In the Shenwan first-level industry classification, the top-performing sectors included retail trade, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services, while the sectors with the largest declines were electronics, power equipment, and machinery [2][3] Economic Events - In November, China's industrial value-added growth year-on-year decreased from 4.9% in October to 4.8%, while the retail sales of consumer goods fell from 2.9% to 1.3%, and fixed asset investment recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% [4][14] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a decline in growth from 16.8% in October to 11.9% in November, with the overall industrial value-added contribution remaining at 1.2 percentage points [4] - Retail sales in sectors related to subsidies, such as automobiles, home appliances, and furniture, saw year-on-year declines, with automotive sales dropping from -6.6% to -8.3%, home appliances from -14.6% to -19.4%, and furniture from 9.6% to -3.8% [15] - The real estate sector showed weakness, with new home transaction values declining year-on-year from 24.3% in October to 25.1% in November, and real estate investment also saw a widening decline from 23% to 30.3% [5][15] Fiscal Data - In November, the broad fiscal revenue decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.6% in October, while fiscal expenditure fell by 1.7% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.1% decline in October [6][14] - Tax revenue showed a notable recovery, with total tax and fee revenue exceeding 29 trillion yuan from January to November, and tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) surpassing 16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [16][17] Market Outlook - The equity strategy suggests continuing to focus on sectors with valuation advantages, as the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with traditional indices showing stability while tech stocks have faced corrections [19] - The bond market is expected to continue its volatility, with short-term bonds outperforming long-term ones, and the overall demand for effective economic policies remains crucial [20]

（文章来源：证券时报网） Choice统计显示，12月22日，沪深两市可交易A股中，上涨个股有2836只，下跌个股有2133只，平盘个 股有190只。不含当日上市新股，共有104只个股涨停，8只个股跌停。从所属行业来看，涨停个股主要 集中在电力设备、建筑装饰、医药生物、通信、交通运输、化工等行业。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With market sentiment boosted, convertible bonds are expected to maintain a strong, oscillating upward trend in the short term. However, near the year - end, some funds' profit - taking needs may cause short - term shocks, especially the volatility of high - priced convertible bonds may increase. Against a backdrop of strong risk appetite, it is cost - effective to make bargain - hunting layouts for large - cap convertible bonds in the bottom - position category and hard - tech themed convertible bonds supported by strong performance and high prosperity. In December, the exchange accelerated the review of convertible bond pre - plans, and in a strong market environment, convertible bond subscription will continue to be an important means to increase returns [2]. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On December 16, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that from December 17, 2025, for the next 5 years, anti - dumping duties would be imposed on imported relevant pork and pork by - products from the EU [3]. - On December 18, 2025, six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to expand the scope of key areas for clean and efficient coal utilization and encourage enterprises to upgrade their projects [4]. Secondary Market - Last week, major equity market indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.89% and 2.26% respectively. Overseas, the US and Japanese markets had different trends, and globally, capital markets and commodities showed a differentiated performance. Domestically, economic data in November indicated continued downward pressure on the economy, with retail sales data underperforming expectations. The equity market initially declined on low trading volume but rebounded after Huijin's purchase of ETFs. Concepts such as commercial space, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and retail led the gains [5]. - Convertible bond market indices all closed up. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.48%, 0.18%, and 0.86% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 63.611 billion yuan, an increase of 2.975 billion yuan from the previous period. Convertible bond ETFs had a net redemption of 1.476 billion yuan. Small - cap convertible bonds outperformed, while high - rated and high - priced convertible bonds lagged. In terms of industry, most convertible bonds in various industries rose, with the light manufacturing industry leading the gain, and some industries such as household appliances and electronics underperforming [6][7][8]. - Looking ahead, convertible bonds are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term. However, due to profit - taking needs near the year - end, high - priced convertible bonds may experience greater volatility. Bargain - hunting for large - cap and hard - tech themed convertible bonds is recommended. Convertible bond subscription will also be an important way to increase returns [9]. Primary Market - Last week, Dingjie Convertible Bond was issued, no convertible bonds were listed, and several convertible bonds were redeemed early or expired. As of December 19, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 559.626 billion yuan, a decrease of 174.267 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. The issuance scale last week was 828 million yuan [31]. - Twelve convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, with some having announced early redemption or approaching redemption conditions. Some convertible bonds triggered more conversions due to negative conversion premiums [32]. - Haitian Co., Ltd., Doctor Optical, and Changgao Electric's convertible bond issuance plans were approved by the exchange; Jinpan Technology and Shangtai Technology's plans were approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, 5 convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total of 5.9 billion yuan, and 10 convertible bonds passed the issuance review committee, with a total of 8.515 billion yuan [34]. - In terms of clause tracking, 2 convertible bonds announced downward revisions of conversion prices, and 3 announced early redemptions. Several other convertible bonds were approaching or expected to trigger relevant conditions [35].

Group 1 - In 2025, major asset performance showed significant differentiation driven by three forces: financial cycle downturn, global order restructuring, and deepening industrial revolution. Gold prices surged over 60%, A-shares entered a structural bull market, while the bond market faced fluctuations and real estate prices continued to adjust [1][75]. Group 2 - The macro asset allocation framework for 2026 indicates a complex transition period. The strategic layer suggests maintaining a defensive stance due to the ongoing financial cycle downturn. The tactical layer anticipates a combination of economic recovery and financial easing, providing opportunities in commodities and equities [2][76]. Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the stock market may experience a profit-driven rally supported by improved economic fundamentals and ample liquidity. Key focus areas include technology sectors like AI and semiconductors, high-quality export sectors, and renewable energy benefiting from anti-involution policies [3][77]. Group 4 - The bond market is expected to see a wide range of fluctuations with a moderate upward trend in yields, projected to be between 1.6% and 2.1%. The key factors influencing this include a rebound in PPI and alleviation of the "asset shortage" issue, with potential trading opportunities arising from small rate cuts early in the year [3][43][77]. Group 5 - In the commodities market, structural differentiation is expected to continue, with basic metals like copper and aluminum benefiting from global fiscal expansion and liquidity easing. Traditional energy sources like oil may perform relatively poorly due to the financial cycle downturn and supply pressures [3][59][77]. Group 6 - Gold is anticipated to enter a phase of high-level consolidation, with long-term support from weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases. However, short-term volatility may arise from price corrections and geopolitical factors [3][68][77].

Group 1 - In 2025, major asset performance showed significant differentiation, with gold prices rising over 60%, A-shares experiencing a structural bull market, and the bond market entering a phase of volatility [1][6] - The driving forces behind these trends include a domestic financial cycle downturn, a restructuring of the global economic order, and a deepening industrial revolution led by AI [6][7] - The bond market faced challenges due to the "asset shortage" logic weakening and economic rebalancing policies entering a phase of turbulence [6][7] Group 2 - For 2026, the market is expected to be in a complex transitional phase, with a strategic focus on defensive positioning while tactically seeking structural opportunities in commodities and equities [2][10] - The stock market is anticipated to see a profit-driven rally supported by improved economic fundamentals, ample liquidity, and reasonable valuations, particularly in sectors like AI and semiconductors [3][15] - The bond market is projected to experience a wide fluctuation in yields, with the ten-year government bond yield expected to range between 1.6% and 2.1% [3][47] Group 3 - The commodity market is expected to continue structural differentiation, with basic metals like copper and aluminum benefiting from global fiscal expansion and industrial upgrade demands [3][63] - Gold is anticipated to undergo a phase of high-level consolidation, supported by weakened dollar credit and central bank purchases, while facing short-term volatility [3][74] - The investment logic for commodities is shifting from traditional economic cycles to a focus on strategic scarcity and essential resources, particularly in the context of global security and industrial needs [3][64][66]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETFs tracking the STAR Market indices, highlighting their focus on high-growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, and their respective performance metrics since inception. Group 1: STAR Market ETFs - The STAR Market 50 ETF tracks the STAR Market 50 Index, composed of 50 large-cap and liquid stocks, with over 65% in semiconductors and nearly 80% in sectors like medical devices and software development [2] - The STAR Market 100 ETF tracks the STAR Market 100 Index, focusing on 100 mid-cap stocks, with over 80% in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment, and a notable 1.8% increase in its performance [2] - The STAR Market Comprehensive Index ETF covers all securities in the STAR Market, focusing on core industries such as AI, semiconductors, and new energy, with a performance increase of 1.7% [2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the STAR Market 50 ETF is 155.4 times, with a valuation percentile of 95.7% since its launch in 2020 [2] - The rolling P/E ratio for the STAR Market 100 ETF is 184.5 times, reflecting a high valuation since its inception on August 7, 2023 [2] - The rolling P/E ratio for the STAR Market Comprehensive Index ETF is 202.5 times, indicating a strong valuation since its launch on January 20, 2025 [2] Group 3: Growth Focus - The STAR Growth 50 ETF tracks the STAR Growth Index, consisting of 50 stocks with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, with a significant focus on electronics and pharmaceuticals, which account for 23% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is navigating through a complex macro landscape, with resource commodities emerging as a central focus for asset allocation due to global shifts, industrial cycles, and domestic policy directions [1] Group 1: Equity Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the coming year, with value sectors likely to be revalued due to attractive valuations and high dividend strategies amid economic recovery [1][2] - The technology growth sector, while still a core direction for long-term industrial upgrades, is undergoing significant changes, shifting from broad speculation on frontier technologies to a focus on performance verification [1][2] Group 2: Global Perspective on Resource Commodities - The investment logic for resource commodities is rooted in structural changes driven by global macro shifts, highlighting their "scarcity" and "inflation resilience" [3] - Supply constraints and rising costs are evident as high-quality mining sources deplete, leading to increased extraction costs for key industrial metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel [3] - Demand remains robust, driven by global energy transitions and re-industrialization, with strategic importance placed on resources like copper and aluminum, which are now considered as critical as "oil in the new era" [3] Group 3: Domestic Perspective on Cyclical Resource Commodities - The domestic cyclical resource sector presents unique investment opportunities due to improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to enhanced profitability and dividend attractiveness [5] - Capital expenditure has peaked in many domestic resource sectors, with limited new supply, while policies promoting "de-involution" and "unified market" are optimizing industry structures and stabilizing prices [5][6] - The aluminum industry, for instance, is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, allowing companies to maintain strong profitability and cash flow, thus supporting high dividend yields [6] Group 4: Investment Fund Focus - The TaiKang Resource Select Fund aims to capitalize on historical opportunities in the resource sector, focusing on a wide range of resource-related industries [8][9] - The fund is positioned as a cyclical growth fund, targeting high elasticity sub-sectors and leveraging macro research to identify structural opportunities within the resource commodities market [10][12]

Group 1 - 28 companies listed on the ChiNext board reported their latest shareholder numbers as of December 20, with 17 companies experiencing a decline in shareholder numbers compared to December 10, and 3 companies seeing a decline of over 5% [1] - The company with the largest decline in shareholder numbers is Silver Bond Co., Ltd., which reported 60,353 shareholders, a decrease of 13.20%, and has seen a cumulative drop of 3.29% in stock price since the concentration of shares began [1] - Shouhua Gas reported 19,035 shareholders, down 9.56%, with a cumulative stock price drop of 8.42% since the concentration began [1] Group 2 - Four companies have shown a continuous decline in shareholder numbers for more than three consecutive periods, with the most significant drop being 5 periods [1] - Chuangyitong reported 8,003 shareholders, a cumulative decline of 13.26% over five periods, while Hongming Co., Ltd. reported 4,199 shareholders, with a cumulative decline of 16.14% over four periods [2] - The average stock price of concentrated shares has decreased by 3.30% since December 11, with Hongming Co., Ltd. and Longlide showing increases of 0.67% and 0.29%, respectively [2]

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资 金净流出额前三的行业为电子、电力设备和计算机。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1.主力资金： 近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资金净流出额前三的行业为电子、 电力设备和计算机。 2.融资融券数据 ：当前市场融资融券余额为24993.66亿元，较上期上升0.62%，其中融资余额24825.56亿元，融券余额168.09亿元。本期两融日均交易额为 1888.46亿元，较上期上升9.41%，其中融资日均净买入1881.21亿元，较两周前上升9.48%，融券日均净卖出7.24亿元，较上期下降5.15%。近两周融资净买 入前三的行业分别为电子、国防军工和通信；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为食品饮料、医药生物和基础化工。 3.涨跌情况： 近两 ...

| 上周公募调研次数排名前十 A 股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股简称 | 申万一级行业 | 被调研次数 | | 长安汽车 | 汽车 | ୧୯ | | 英通线缆 | 电力设备 | 37 | | 品红 | 医药生物 | 35 | | 博盈特焊 | 机械设备 | 29 | | 神工股份 | 电子 | 29 | | 興比中光 | 車子 | 20 | | 景嘉微 | 国防军工 | 18 | | 本钢板材 | 钢铁 | 15 | | 永鼎股份 | 通信 | 14 | | 天康生物 | 农林牧渔 | 13 | | 数据整理自:公募排排网,统计周期 2025年 12月15日-12 月 21 日,以上内容不构成 | 股票推荐或投资建议,短期个股业绩不代表未来表现,亦不代表基金必然投资方向。 | | 转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月22日电（林郑宏）年末公募快马加鞭赶调研，前瞻布局2026年投资主线。据公募排排 网数据显示，上周（2025年12月15日-12月21日）120家公募机构合计开展A股调研达545次，调研范围 覆盖到23个申万一级行业中的89只个股，展现出公募机构对市场机会的深度挖 ...