—百亿募资只是表象，真正变的是中国资产的定价方式 当然，热≠易。注册制下仍要过材料与路演两关。递表像投简历，上市才是领证。资本的手伸得快，收得更快。 所以，港股在变什么？它正从"备胎市场"，回到"价值发现"的主场。看懂这一点，才看懂这轮IPO。 年初至今18宗IPO、675.5亿港元募资，同比暴涨1029%，这不是偶发脉冲，而是一轮结构性提速。 第一层变化，是"A+H折价"正在失效。过去H股便宜像常识，如今却被不断打破，甚至出现倒挂。原因不神秘：全球资金在重估中国龙头的现金流与确定 性。当中东、新加坡的长线基金开始扫货，市场就不再只讲"便宜"，而是讲"值不值"。 第二层变化，是制度的"隐形加速"。公众持股比例下调至5%或市值10亿港元，企业赴港成本骤降，相当于给融资通道装上"涡轮"。这不是放水，而是让好 公司少消耗在流程里，把时间用在增长上。 第三层变化，来自AI。短短两个月，12家AI价值链公司上市，基石投资者认购率接近58%。路演现场常见一幕：管理层刚说完商业化节奏，台下已经在算 三年回报。这不是追风口，是算账本。 l 你以为港股只是"情绪反弹"？看看中环清晨的交易大厅：咖啡还没凉，电话已经打爆。 （唐加 ...

Group 1 - The analysis from Nomura Securities indicates that rising US Treasury yields and a weak yen will compel the Kishida administration to shift its policy focus from "old Kishida trade" of fiscal expansion and a weak yen to "new Kishida trade" emphasizing structural and regulatory reforms [1][5] - Following the recent elections, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin gained a majority, leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index, which surpassed 57,000 points for the first time in history [3][4] - The real estate sector led the gains in the Nikkei index, with a rise of over 7%, while companies like CyberAgent Inc. and Advantest saw substantial stock price increases of over 16% and 12%, respectively [3][4] Group 2 - Investment institutions are optimistic about sectors such as defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, which are expected to benefit significantly from Kishida's increased investments in these areas [5][6] - The yen has faced significant depreciation, dropping approximately 6% against the dollar and reaching historical lows against the euro and Swiss franc, which has raised concerns about potential currency intervention [5][7] - Analysts express skepticism about Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, due to fiscal concerns, although recent yield increases have made them more attractive to some investors [5][6][7]

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 09 日 节后债市或延续节前趋势 1.8%或由阻力变支撑 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周利率债表现偏强。尽管周初 10 年国债新券短暂突破 1.8%后受止 盈情绪影响再度调整，但此后在大行的持续买入下，10 年国债也经受住了 风险偏好修复、地方债集中发行等因素的扰动，此后随着交易情绪回暖利 率再度走低，10 年期国债利率再度降至 1.8%附近，10 年政金债以及 30 年 国债的下行幅度更大。随着春节临近，也有部分投资者关注长假因素是否 会对市场趋势带来扰动。 收 益 专 题 从历史看，节后债市的表现一般都是节前趋势的延续。过去单数年份 利率容易在春节前后上行，但双数年份利率反而多在春节前后下行，唯一 的例外是 2022 年利率在节前回落、节后走高，但这一年的特殊性在于央行 在节前降息落地，节后利率在止盈情绪和对信贷的担忧下出现了上行。之 所以呈现出这样的状态，主要还是因为岁末年末市场往往都对市场的状态 进行了充分定价，市场结构会得到一定程度的出清，而年初货币政策的导 向往往也会根据新一年的目标进行调整，而这样的调整一般也不会因为春 节因素发生变化，后续的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, leading to significant improvements in the performance of brokerage firms [1] - Most brokerage firms' profit forecasts for 2025 indicate overall profit growth, with 6 out of 29 firms reporting an increase of over 100% and 19 firms showing an increase of over 50% [1] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds in the A-share market is projected to reach 2.08 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.36% [1] Group 2 - The number of IPO approvals is expected to increase by 109.43% year-on-year, with the amount raised growing by 208.01% [1] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders of listed brokerage firms that have released profit forecasts is expected to grow by approximately 60% year-on-year [1] - Leading brokerage firms are showing steady growth, while some small and medium-sized firms are demonstrating significant performance elasticity [1] Group 3 - The brokerage industry is anticipated to benefit from the long-term healthy development and increasing activity in the capital market [1] - Despite the positive outlook, there is a significant mismatch between valuations and fundamentals, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio of the brokerage industry at only 1.36 times [1] - The brokerage sector has experienced notable stagnation previously, making the current positioning highly cost-effective for investment [1]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net asset ratios[1][2][4] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated as the weighted average turnover rate of constituent stocks, with the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Floating Shares of Constituent Stocks} \times \text{Turnover Rate of Constituent Stocks})}{\Sigma(\text{Floating Shares of Constituent Stocks})} $[19] - The risk premium is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a reference for risk-free rates. It evaluates the relative investment value and deviation of indices. The report highlights that indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 exhibit higher volatility in risk premiums compared to others[28][29][32] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric to assess the investment value of indices. The report notes that indices such as CSI 500 (98.51%) and CSI 1000 (98.43%) have high 5-year historical percentiles, while indices like SSE 50 (81.9%) and ChiNext Index (60.83%) are relatively lower[40][43][44] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return, particularly relevant during market downturns. The report observes that indices like CSI 500 (7.36%) and CSI 2000 (3.88%) have relatively low 5-year historical percentiles, while ChiNext Index (56.36%) and CSI 300 (38.76%) are higher[50][53][55] - The net asset ratio (P/B ratio below 1) is used to evaluate market valuation attitudes. The report indicates that the current net asset ratios for indices are as follows: SSE 50 (24.0%), CSI 300 (16.67%), CSI 500 (10.6%), CSI 1000 (7.0%), CSI 2000 (2.45%), and CSI All Share (5.5%)[59]

Group 1 - The 51st House of Representatives election in Japan resulted in a decisive victory for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, with the LDP securing 316 seats, surpassing the two-thirds threshold for constitutional amendments, thereby solidifying its governance base [1][3] - The election outcome exceeded some market expectations, eliminating previous political uncertainties, and the ruling coalition now holds a total of 352 seats, representing a three-quarters absolute majority in the Diet, which significantly reduces the resistance to core policy advancement [3][4] - The Japanese yen depreciated to a two-week low, primarily due to market concerns regarding the direction of Japan's fiscal and monetary policies following the election results [3][4] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index surged significantly, reaching a historical high, with a daily increase exceeding 5%, driven by expectations of policy continuity and economic stimulus from the stable political environment [4][5] - External market influences, particularly a rebound in U.S. stock markets, contributed to the rise in Japanese stocks, alongside initiatives from the Tokyo Stock Exchange aimed at enhancing company valuations and increasing dividends and stock buybacks [5] - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment, with optimistic views suggesting that political stability and a moderate yen depreciation could benefit Japanese export companies and support economic recovery, while cautious perspectives warn of potential valuation bubbles and risks associated with excessive monetary easing [5][6] Group 3 - Key variables influencing future market trends include the effectiveness of the government's fiscal and monetary policies, debt control measures, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate adjustments, which will directly impact the yen and stock market [6] - The government's potential intervention in the currency market and the performance of U.S. stocks will also affect market sentiment and the trajectory of Japanese equities [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - 2025 marks the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with China's financial reform and opening-up entering a deep institutional phase, focusing on systemic deepening and high-quality development [1][10][15] - The integration of finance and technology is emphasized, providing robust financial support for cultivating new productive forces [1][10] Group 2: Market Development - The capital market's two-way opening continues to deepen, with significant growth in trading volumes for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect, and Hong Kong's new stock financing returning to the top globally in 2025 [1][10][19] - Policies to encourage long-term capital inflows have been implemented, clarifying the proportion and assessment mechanisms for public offerings and insurance funds entering the market, optimizing the capital market ecosystem [1][10][22] Group 3: Industry Development - Foreign banks, securities, and insurance institutions are accelerating their presence in China, focusing on wealth management, green finance, and technology insurance, with foreign insurance companies' total assets growing by 12.1% year-on-year [2][62] - Domestic financial institutions are also actively expanding overseas, particularly in Belt and Road countries and emerging markets, with the asset management industry reaching 179.33 trillion yuan, setting historical highs for both public and private funds [2][73] Group 4: Regulatory Reforms - Regulatory reforms are centered around five major areas, with multiple departments issuing policies to clarify development goals, enhancing the inclusiveness of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [3][10][15] - The establishment of a modern financial system that matches economic strength is emphasized, with a focus on risk prevention and control [3][10] Group 5: Regional Opening - Key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Hainan Free Trade Port are becoming core areas for financial opening, with various financial reform policies being implemented [2][10][12] Group 6: Financial Empowerment of Technological Innovation - The banking sector is increasing credit support for technological innovation, with the re-loan quota for innovation raised to 800 billion yuan, and the number of listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reaching 600 with a total market value exceeding 10 trillion yuan [3][10][12]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of February 6, the margin trading balance in A-shares is 26,636.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.6% of the A-share circulating market value [1] Group 1: Margin Trading Data - The margin trading transaction amount on the same day was 191.166 billion yuan, down by 8.185 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 8.83% of the A-share transaction amount [1] - All 31 primary industries in Shenwan showed a net repayment status, with the non-ferrous metals industry having the highest net repayment amount of 2.052 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - A total of 21 individual stocks had a net buying amount exceeding 100 million yuan, with Hunan Gold leading at a net buying amount of 404.146 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net buying amounts include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Shenzhen South Circuit, Shuangliang Energy, Jiangfeng Electronics, Hongda Shares, Starlight Intelligent Drive, CITIC Securities, Zhongtung High-Tech, and Tianfu Communication [2]

Group 1 - The core logic of gold prices has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and the restructuring of the global monetary system [2] - The recent volatility in precious metals is expected to stabilize, with gold finding a bottom around 4400 USD for London gold and 1000 CNY for Shanghai gold [2] - The significant drop in precious metals prices is primarily driven by technical factors rather than fundamental deterioration, with strong macroeconomic support for gold prices remaining intact [3] Group 2 - The recent decline in tin prices is noted, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.81%, attributed to inventory depletion and ongoing supply issues from Indonesia and Myanmar [3] - The gold ETF from E Fund (159934) offers a convenient investment method for investors with securities accounts, allowing T+0 trading of gold [3]

——26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月9日 1 证券研究报告 金融行业周报 重点聚焦 行业数据 • 2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向 • 明确RWA监管框架，强化虚拟资产风险管理 • 国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构许可证管理办法》 • 本周银行、证券、保险、金融科技指数分别变动+1.70%、-0.65%、-0.71%、-0.57% • 银行：公开市场操作实现净回笼7560亿元，SHIBOR利率回落 • 证券：周度股基日均成交3.2万亿元 • 保险：十年期国债到期收益率环比上周下行0.10bps 核心观点 26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 1、2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向。1月30日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议，总结2025年工作，部署 落实结构性货币政策 ...