Report Date - The report is dated January 6, 2026 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main contract of polycrystalline silicon showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,645 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 17,155 lots, and the open interest was 74,571 lots, with a net decrease of 1,797 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,168 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,164 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon reclaimed materials was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 53,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4] Market Outlook - The spot price remained stable overall. The Silicon Industry Branch expected that the output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January would be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but the implementation needed to be observed. Downstream components were also under pressure from the rising prices of silver and silicon materials, and the production schedule in January would decline. The supply and demand were expected to enter a stage of simultaneous reduction. The polysilicon futures would remain stable and continue to trade with low volume and decreasing positions in a volatile manner before there was a significant improvement in the industry and policy relaxation [4] Market News - On January 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, an increase of 20 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - In December, the estimated production of polysilicon was 116,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.42% [5] - At the end of December, the inventory of polysilicon factories was 309,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.49% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's refinancing activities in 2025 were exceptionally active, with a total of approximately HKD 325.32 billion raised through various methods, significantly surpassing the previous year [1] - Placement became the primary method for refinancing, with 345 companies initiating 463 placements, raising HKD 289.62 billion, slightly exceeding the HKD 285.69 billion raised through IPOs [1] - Leading companies like BYD and Xiaomi spearheaded large-scale refinancing efforts, focusing on industry integration and technological development [2] Group 1: Refinancing Trends - In 2025, the refinancing market in Hong Kong saw significant participation from industry leaders, with BYD raising HKD 43.51 billion and Xiaomi raising HKD 42.6 billion [2] - Other notable companies included NIO and Horizon Robotics, which collectively raised over HKD 11 billion, focusing on core technology breakthroughs and operational stability [2] - The refinancing activities reflect a trend of companies engaging in multiple rounds of financing, with firms like SenseTime and China Ruoyi completing several placements throughout the year [4] Group 2: Mechanisms and Strategies - The "old before new" placement system in Hong Kong allows companies to quickly raise funds by transferring existing shares before issuing new ones, significantly shortening the financing cycle [5] - This method typically offers discounts of 5% to 12% compared to market prices, effectively attracting institutional investors [5] - New companies listed in 2025, such as Boreton and Jiangsu Hongxin, quickly initiated refinancing to leverage their post-IPO stock price advantages [6] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The funds raised through refinancing are often directed towards capacity expansion and R&D, particularly in high-growth sectors like technology and renewable energy [3] - Companies like GCL-Poly announced specific uses for their raised funds, including structural adjustments in polysilicon production and enhancing R&D capabilities [2] - The trend of "going global" is also evident, with many Hong Kong-listed companies pursuing international expansion strategies while ensuring compliance with local regulations [7]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's refinancing activity surged in 2025, with a total of approximately HKD 325.32 billion raised through various methods, significantly exceeding the previous year's figures [1] - Placement became the dominant method for refinancing, with 345 companies initiating 463 placements, raising HKD 289.62 billion, slightly surpassing the HKD 285.69 billion raised through IPOs [1] - Leading companies like BYD and Xiaomi spearheaded large-scale refinancing efforts, focusing on industry integration and technological development [2] Group 1: Refinancing Trends - In 2025, the refinancing market in Hong Kong was notably active, with a total of HKD 325.32 billion raised, primarily through placements [1] - Placement emerged as the main refinancing method, with 345 companies conducting 463 placements, raising HKD 289.62 billion, which slightly exceeded the IPO fundraising of HKD 285.69 billion [1] - The stability of rights issues and consideration issues was noted, with rights issues raising approximately HKD 8.14 billion and consideration issues raising about HKD 27.57 billion [1] Group 2: Leading Companies - Major companies like BYD, Xiaomi, and China Hongqiao led the refinancing efforts, with BYD raising HKD 43.51 billion and Xiaomi raising HKD 42.6 billion [2] - The refinancing focus for these leading firms included investments in AI and automotive technology for BYD and business line expansion for Xiaomi [2] - NIO and Horizon Robotics also participated significantly, with NIO raising a total of HKD 11.91 billion through two placements [2] Group 3: Multiple Financing Rounds - Some companies engaged in multiple rounds of refinancing, with firms like China Ruoyi and China Jinshi conducting more than two rounds in 2025 [4] - SenseTime, a leading AI company, completed two rounds of financing in July and December, raising HKD 2.5 billion and HKD 3.15 billion respectively [4] - The trend of frequent refinancing reflects the ongoing financial pressures faced by companies, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [4] Group 4: Efficient Financing Mechanisms - The "old before new" placement model was utilized by companies like China Hongqiao and Derin Holdings, allowing for significant financing while maintaining market stability [5] - This model enables companies to quickly complete fundraising through the transfer of existing shares followed by the issuance of new shares, significantly shortening the financing cycle [5] - The typical discount for placements ranges from 5% to 12%, effectively attracting institutional investors [5] Group 5: New Listings and Market Expansion - New companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market accelerated their refinancing activities post-IPO, leveraging stock price advantages [6] - Companies like Boreton and Jiangsu Hongxin quickly initiated refinancing after their listings, while Yujian Technology conducted two rounds of financing in 2025 [6] - The trend of "going global" was noted, with many companies pursuing IPOs in Hong Kong to expand their international presence, although compliance with local regulations remains a critical consideration [6]

Group 1: Macro Environment - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with internal disagreements among officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][19] - The People's Bank of China has committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3][19] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historically low levels, indicating persistent tightness in supply [4][20] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase [4][20] - November's net imports of refined copper fell by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories rose by 126,000 tons to 924,000 tons by December 31 [4][20] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - Despite weak fundamentals and high inventory expectations, market sentiment remains optimistic due to expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve and strong performance in precious metals [5][21] - The copper price has reached new historical highs, but there is a significant divergence between weak fundamentals and optimistic market sentiment, leading to potential volatility [6][21] - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper is losing arbitrage opportunities, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][21] Group 4: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain stable at $25.5 per wet ton, while Philippine nickel ore premiums have increased to $9.0 per wet ton [7][22] - January's refined nickel production is expected to rise by 35.8% month-on-month to 37,200 tons [7][22] - The stainless steel market shows a total inventory of 977,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.78% [8][23] Group 5: Aluminum Market - December aluminum prices showed a month-on-month increase, with aluminum oxide futures rising by 2.6% and electrolytic aluminum by 6.1% [9][25] - The average operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises decreased to 61.5% in December, indicating a seasonal slowdown [10][26] - Social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 64,000 tons to 660,000 tons in December [11][26] Group 6: Silicon and Polysilicon - December industrial silicon futures decreased by 2.96%, while polysilicon futures increased by 2.65% [12][27] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline by 3.2% month-on-month, while polysilicon production is projected to decrease by 3.5% [12][27] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon increased by 17,200 tons to 50,000 tons in December [13][28] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with a projected month-on-month decrease of 1.2% in January [14][29] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline in January, with a forecasted decrease in production [14][29] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a slowing down of the destocking process [15][29]

12月31日主力资金净流出1.41亿元，占总成交额12.56%；游资资金净流入3523.33万元，占总成交额 3.15%；散户资金净流入1.05亿元，占总成交额9.41%。 公司公告汇总 截至2025年12月31日收盘，通威股份(600438)报收于20.52元，下跌2.33%，换手率1.2%，成交量54.15万 手，成交额11.19亿元。 当日关注点 交易信息汇总资金流向 通威股份有限公司拟于2026年度开展套期保值业务，旨在规避原材料和产成品价格以及利率、汇率波动 对公司生产经营的影响。公司生产所需主要原料包括玉米、豆粕、白银、铜、铝、PVC等，产品涉及多 晶硅等，价格波动较大。公司已在境内及境外合规交易所开展相关业务，建立内部控制制度，明确操作 流程与风险控制措施，配备专业人员，严格遵循不以投机为目的的原则。经分析，该业务有利于降低经 营风险，投资损失可控，具备可行性。 通威股份有限公司计划在2026年1月1日至12月31日期间开展套期保值业务，涉及商品、外汇和利率类衍 生品，主要用于规避原材料和产成品价格波动及汇率、利率风险。商品套期保值合约任一日最高价值不 超过30亿元人民币，外汇套期保值不超过24 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of mismatch between production and demand still exists. Polysilicon shows a strong and wide - range oscillation, while industrial silicon prices oscillate within a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with cost maintaining support [1][4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 57,000 - 61,000 yuan/ton, waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer [4][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Situation Review - Industrial silicon: The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of the main contract on the futures market first fell and then rose. The overall profit level is relatively average. The consumption side has a slight decline, and the inventory may maintain a slight accumulation. - Polysilicon: The supply side decreased slightly in December. The downstream prices increased, but the high - inventory pressure and weak demand recovery have not been fundamentally resolved. The price increased slightly in December, and the futures market first rose and then fell [4][5][6]. 2. Supply - side Data - **Industrial silicon**: As of December 25, the total number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces was 796, and the number of open furnaces increased by 23 compared with November. The overall furnace - opening rate was 30.53%. The monthly output increased significantly compared with the previous month. The expected supply is expected to weaken. The import volume from January to November 2025 decreased by 64% year - on - year [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The total output in December was about 115,000 tons. Some leading enterprises reduced production at the end of the year, and the output decreased to match the demand due to factors such as industry self - discipline and the traditional off - season of demand [4]. 3. Consumption - side Review - **Industrial silicon**: In December, the downstream demand continued to tighten. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the organic silicon start - up rate declined, and the aluminum alloy industry mainly purchased on demand. The export volume in November 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the gradual consumption of inventory, the replenishment demand is expected to be released, but the overall consumption side will decline slightly [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices increased. The domestic silicon wafer production in December decreased by 19.3% month - on - month, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The battery cell production increased in September. The component price continued to oscillate, and the production in December was about 38.7GW, with the production schedule in January expected to decline slightly [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Basis Analysis - **Industrial silicon**: The current basis is about 340 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the basis expanded. It is expected that the 553 basis will oscillate around 400 yuan/ton in January 2026, and the 421 basis will oscillate around 850 yuan/ton. The reverse - spread strategy between the January and February contracts can be concerned [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The current N - type dense material average price is at a discount of - 6420 yuan/ton to the futures main contract. Due to the influence of the establishment of the platform company and the expected storage policy, the basis has continued to expand. If the policy has no obvious progress, the basis is expected to be strong but show a recovery state, moving towards - 4000 yuan/ton [11].

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂减产落地，多晶硅成交中枢上移 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | 孙伟东 | 有色金属首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 年 | 1 月 4 | 日 | 从业资格号: | F3035243 | | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] | | | | 投资咨询号: | Z0014605 | | | | | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆减产 | 16 | | 台，其中包括新疆大厂西 | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 联系人 从业资格号: F03130556 肖嘉颖 分析师 （有色金属） Email： jiaying.xiao@orientfutures.com [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆减产 16 台，其中包括新疆大厂西 部基地因环保停炉 12 台，预计春节后复产，关注实际情况。 四川减产 3 台，枯水期仅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the overcapacity situation of industrial silicon is expected to continue, but policy - end regulation will have a guiding effect. Production is expected to increase slightly by 3%, with overall demand increasing by about 5%. The mainstream price range is expected to be between 7,600 yuan/ton and 9,400 yuan/ton, and factors such as capacity optimization, enterprise dynamic production adjustment, and upward price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain should be focused on [3][94]. - Compared with industrial silicon, polysilicon has greater variability. Currently, polysilicon has overcapacity and high inventory, but policy - based storage and price - support from leading enterprises provide strong support, driving up the prices of downstream silicon wafers and solar cells and contributing to the profit recovery of the photovoltaic industry. In 2026, it still faces the challenge of declining terminal demand. Policy implementation (energy - consumption regulations + platform - based storage) will have a significant impact on polysilicon prices. Capacity elimination and optimization are relatively certain events, and with the increasing concentration of production enterprises' capacity, polysilicon is generally "prone to rise but difficult to fall". It is recommended to conduct risk - hedging based on production conditions [4][97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market in 2025 (1) Industrial Silicon Futures - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: continued decline from 2024 until early June, a rebound from early June to mid - July, and a consolidation period from August to the end of the year. The price dropped to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, with a decline of 36.5% from the beginning of the year, then rebounded to a maximum of 10,060 yuan/ton in mid - July, a 43.9% increase from the early - June low. The market entered a state of "subtle balance" later, with supply and demand both decreasing, high inventory but slight destocking, and reduced trading volume [7][10][11]. - In terms of the basis, the basis was relatively low in the first quarter. It reached the annual high in the second quarter as the futures price declined rapidly. In the third and fourth quarters, the basis was mainly driven by the futures price, with the spot price being 400 - 800 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, showing an obvious inverse market pattern [14]. (2) Polysilicon Futures - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into four stages: a calm period during the "rush - installation wave" from the beginning of the year to early April; a decline due to oversupply from early April to mid - late June, with the price dropping to a minimum of 30,400 yuan/ton, a 30% decline; a price increase boosted by the "anti - involution" policy from late June to late July, with the price reaching a maximum of 55,605 yuan/ton, an 83% increase in one month; and a high - level consolidation period from early August to the end of the year under the contradiction of "weak supply - demand vs. strong policy". The futures price fluctuated in the range of 48,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and reached a maximum of 61,985 yuan/ton after the establishment of the storage platform [15][18][20]. - The basis was relatively stable from January to April, around - 4,000 yuan/ton, then converged as the price fluctuated. From late July to mid - September, the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis gradually widened from late October and exceeded - 10,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year [21]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis (1) Capacity - In 2026, the effective capacity is expected to decline. The domestic industrial silicon capacity at the end of 2025 was 7.879 million tons. It is expected that 400,000 - 500,000 tons of new capacity will be added in 2026, while some capacity (mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan) will continue to be phased out, and the supply center will shift northward. The domestic industrial silicon capacity in 2026 is expected to be 8 - 8.2 million tons, with the effective capacity below 7.5 million tons [23]. - In 2025, the domestic industrial silicon capacity continued to expand. By November 2025, the capacity was 7.879 million tons, with an increase of 600,000 tons during the year, including 400,000 tons of newly - put - into - operation capacity and about 200,000 tons of restarted idle capacity. The incremental capacity mainly came from Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu [24]. - Policy impact on industrial silicon is relatively limited. The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2024 Edition)" requires the elimination of certain types of furnaces, but the proportion of affected capacity is small (about 5% or 400,000 tons, mostly already shut down). The "anti - involution" policy has a limited impact on industrial silicon, and production is more affected by profit factors. As capacity further concentrates in the northern regions, the effect of joint production cuts by large enterprises is expected to improve [25][28]. - For new capacity in 2026, it is expected to be 400,000 - 500,000 tons. There are currently about 200,000 tons of completed but un - put - into - operation capacity (expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026) and 700,000 tons under construction (expected to be put into production in batches). The new capacity is highly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, accounting for 80%, and the project commissioning time will be concentrated in the first half of the year and the third quarter [29][33]. (2) Production - In 2025, the domestic industrial silicon production was about 4.27 million tons, a 12.8% year - on - year decrease, and the annual capacity utilization rate was about 54%. The production in the northern regions increased, with Xinjiang accounting for 52% of the total production from January to November 2025, and the four northern provinces (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia) accounting for 81%, while Sichuan and Yunnan together accounted for less than 17% [34][37]. - The output of substitute products decreased. The output of 97 - silicon was expected to be about 110,000 tons in 2025, a 73% year - on - year decrease, and the output of recycled silicon was 180,000 tons, a 28% year - on - year decrease [41]. (3) Demand 1: Organic Silicon - In 2025, the production of organic silicon was basically flat. The cumulative production of domestic organic silicon DMC and other polysiloxanes in 2025 was expected to reach 2.72 million tons, almost the same as in 2024. The domestic consumption was 2.2 million tons, and the export was 203,200 tons, showing a tight balance with a slight surplus. The DMC price is currently in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton, and the profitability of enterprises has been significantly restored [44][47]. - In 2026, the organic silicon industry is also facing overcapacity, with no new device plans. Production or maintenance will be adjusted according to downstream demand. The downstream demand is relatively scattered, and the future growth points may be in smart wear and new energy. It is expected that the demand will increase slightly by 1 - 3% [47]. (4) Demand 2: Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the price of aluminum alloy showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and the price center increased in line with the price of primary aluminum. The cumulative production of domestic aluminum alloy from January to November 2025 was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to exceed 18 million tons, reaching a new high. The driving factors include the booming demand for new - energy vehicles, the accelerated release of recycled aluminum capacity, technological upgrades, and policy support [49][50]. - In 2026, the production of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to grow steadily by more than 10%. The main supporting factors include the implementation of "two new" policies in the new - energy vehicle sector, the increasing demand for aluminum alloy in energy storage and 5G fields, the possible supply shortage of recycled aluminum, and the gradual reaching of full production capacity by leading enterprises [54]. (5) Import and Export - In 2025, China's industrial silicon exports were expected to be 746,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous year. Overseas markets mainly purchase on demand, and exports in 2026 are expected to remain stable with limited growth [56]. (6) Cost and Profit - Electricity and silicon - coal account for about 75% of the total raw material cost of industrial silicon, and the price of coal has a higher correlation with the price of industrial silicon. Cost and profit are the main references for enterprises to adjust production [58]. - In the long - term, the electricity cost has a downward trend, but the regional and enterprise - level cost differences will increase. In 2026, the electricity price in low - price regions such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shandong is expected to decline, while in high - price regions such as Shanghai, Anhui, and Guangdong, it will be more resilient. The electricity price in intermediate regions such as Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Hebei South Grid will be stable [61][62]. - The price of silicon - coal has a significant impact on cost changes. The price increase of coal in early June 2025 boosted the price of industrial silicon [63]. 3. Polysilicon Market Analysis (1) 2025: Continued Overcapacity - From 2022 to 2024, the domestic polysilicon capacity expanded nearly six times. In 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity was expected to be 3.32 million tons, with an effective capacity of 3.123 million tons, a 10.5% year - on - year increase. The production was expected to be 1.33 million tons, a 26% year - on - year decrease, and the annual capacity utilization rate was about 40% [64][67]. - In terms of demand, the domestic silicon wafer production in 2025 was 649 GW, and the consumption of polysilicon was about 1.23 million tons. With exports of 23,500 tons and imports of 19,000 tons, the domestic polysilicon market still had overcapacity, but the surplus was narrower than in 2023 and 2024 [71]. (2) Supply - For capacity changes in 2026, it can be analyzed from three aspects: project planning, energy - consumption regulations, and platform - based storage. It is expected that more than 400,000 tons of new capacity will be put into production by the end of 2026 [72]. - Energy - consumption regulations will adjust the polysilicon capacity. About 450,000 tons of existing capacity may not meet the new energy - consumption standards and will be phased out, and some capacity needs to be technically upgraded. After the implementation of the new standards, the domestic effective polysilicon capacity is expected to drop to about 2.4 million tons per year [72]. - The storage platform "Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd." was registered in December 2025. It plans to adopt a dual - track operation mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible capacity storage" to optimize the capacity structure. The goal is to shut down 1 - 1.2 million tons of capacity and retain 1.5 million tons of effective capacity [72][73]. - The supply in 2026 largely depends on policy - end regulation, and it is preliminarily estimated that the supply will be between 1.4 - 1.5 million tons [77]. (3) Demand - In 2025, the nominal capacity of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain was high, but the actual production was affected by weak demand and industry self - regulation. The production of polysilicon decreased for the first time in 12 years, the growth rate of silicon wafer and module production slowed down, and the capacity investment in solar cells continued to grow [78][79]. - In 2026, global photovoltaic installation will benefit from energy transformation, emerging market development, and policy support. However, the demand in China, the United States, and Europe is expected to remain stable or decline. The demand for domestic polysilicon should not be overly optimistic due to factors such as the loss of downstream products, the possible reduction of domestic installation after the subsidy withdrawal, and the restriction of exports by other countries. The demand for polysilicon is estimated to range from 1.32 - 1.58 million tons under different installation scenarios [83][84]. (4) Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of polysilicon was 523,000 tons, reaching a recent high. The inventory of silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules was in a relatively normal state, but the module inventory showed a cumulative trend in the second half of the year [86]. - It is expected that the polysilicon inventory will remain high in the first quarter of 2026 and may increase further. It will decline in the second and third quarters as demand recovers and the installation season arrives, and enter a stable period in the fourth quarter [88]. (5) Cost - The cost of polysilicon is mainly composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other raw materials, with electricity accounting for about 50%. The "anti - involution" policy in 2025 prohibited selling below cost [89]. - There are differences in the calculation basis of polysilicon cost between market participants and production enterprises. In 2026, with the progress of the industrial storage platform, the concentration of production will further increase, and it will play a leading role in guiding the cost and price of polysilicon, which is an important bottom - support for the price [90]. 4. Summary: Supply - Demand Structure and Strategy Suggestions for Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon in 2026 (1) Industrial Silicon - In 2026, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is expected to continue, but policy regulation will guide production to increase slightly by 3% and demand to increase by about 5%. The mainstream price range is expected to be 7,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and factors such as capacity optimization, enterprise production adjustment, and price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain should be focused on [94]. (2) Polysilicon - Polysilicon has greater variability. Currently, it has overcapacity and high inventory, but policy - based storage and price - support from leading enterprises provide strong support. In 2026, it faces the challenge of declining terminal demand, and policy implementation will have a significant impact on prices. Capacity elimination and optimization are certain events, and polysilicon is generally "prone to rise but difficult to fall". It is recommended to conduct risk - hedging based on production conditions [97][98].