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硅料主力期货尾盘大幅飙升,行业龙头表示恢复盈利可期
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-09-01 23:15
Group 1 - The price of polysilicon has increased significantly, with mainstream prices for rod silicon rising to 55 yuan per kilogram and granular silicon at 49 yuan per kilogram, driven by industry self-discipline and market trading [1] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stated that it expects to return to profitability around late August to September while maintaining the price of granular silicon at over 40,000 yuan per ton [1] - If production cuts in the polysilicon sector are effectively implemented, September output is expected to remain stable month-on-month, alleviating supply pressure [1] Group 2 - Guangfa Securities anticipates that upcoming price elasticity catalysts may arise from enhanced environmental and energy consumption standards, leading to a rigid decline in production and increased price elasticity within the industry [2] - Historical supply-side reforms in the industry have shown that environmental production limits are effective in reducing output and enhancing prices, thereby reinforcing industry self-discipline [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a special energy-saving inspection notice for the polysilicon industry, which may provide a basis for future supply through energy consumption classification [2]
多晶硅异动,原因找到了
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant increase in polysilicon futures prices on September 1, with the main contract PS2511 closing up by 6.03% and PS2510 contract up by 5.69% [1][2] - The trading volume for the main polysilicon contract reached 536,100 lots, with a transaction value of approximately 80.25 billion [2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize between 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton in the future, as industry inventory is anticipated to gradually decrease [4] Group 2 - GCL-Poly Energy, a major polysilicon producer, is in the process of finalizing its merger and acquisition plans, with expectations of clearer information emerging soon [3] - The company aims to manage its cash flow effectively by determining the capital expenditures associated with the merger and acquisition plans before deciding on any share repurchase [3] - The management anticipates that the company can return to profitability by the end of August to early September while maintaining the current price of granular silicon at over 40,000 yuan per ton [4]
多晶硅异动 原因找到了
一为多晶硅企业并购重组计划的最新进展。 9月1日,广期所多晶硅期货价格全线大涨。其中,主力合约PS2511收盘涨幅达6.03%,PS2510合约收盘涨幅也达到了5.69%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 张跌额 | 张跃帽� | 今开 | 最高 | 最低 | 昨得 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 买盘(外盘) | 英雄(内閣) | 持命重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | psm | 多晶硅王连 | 62285 | 2975 | 6.03% | 49265 | 52420 | 48220 | 49310 | 53.61万 | 802.51亿 | 283779 | 252319 | 160409 | | 2 | ps2511 | 多晶硅2511 | 52285 | 2975 | 6.03% | 49265 | 52420 | 48220 | 49310 | 53.61万 | 802. 517. | 283779 | 252319 | 1 ...
瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:57
多晶硅产业日报 2025-09-01 免责声明 价上调,多晶硅价格上行,但是需要注意,整体市场产量依旧未减少,同时下游光伏组件上涨价格不明显 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 ,预计整体难有突破机会,冲高后接近顶部可以尝试短空,操作建议,暂时观望,或者布局看跌期权 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52285 | 2730 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2550 | -55 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 150409 | 5412 多晶硅-工业硅价差( ...
港股异动 | 新特能源(01799)涨超7% 上半年亏损同比收窄超七成 市场关注多晶硅企业限售措施
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 08:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Xinte Energy (01799) experienced a stock price increase of over 7%, reaching HKD 7.29, with a trading volume of HKD 50.52 million [1] - Xinte Energy reported a revenue of RMB 7.311 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 37.74%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed by 71.11% to RMB 256 million [1] - The company has implemented a reasonable multi-crystalline silicon production plan, focusing on quality improvement and cost reduction, while actively developing photovoltaic and wind power resources, as well as key equipment manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that two coal-fired power projects in which the company holds stakes have become new profit contributors, enhancing operational resilience and risk resistance [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, short-term weekly production remains high, with some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resuming operations, while others in Xinjiang are reducing production [1] - The market is paying attention to supply-side changes due to "anti-involution" measures, particularly the expected production cuts starting in September [1]
中国多晶硅行业发展趋势分析与投资前景研究报告(2025-2032年)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 07:27
| 分类 | 相关介绍 | | --- | --- | | 冶金级 | 一般是指用冶金法提纯后的多展硅,产品纯度在5N-6N(N代表百分数中有几个"9"冶金级即硅含量为99.999%-9 | | 务品硅 | 9.999%) 之间 主要应用包括航空、尖端技术、军事技术部门的特种材料以及建筑、纺织、汽车、机械等领域。 | | 太阳能 | | | 发客服 | 一般是指纯度在6N-9N(硅含量为99.9999%-99.9999999%)之间的多局硅,主要用于大阳能光伏电池的生产。 | | 信 | | | 电子级 | 纯度在9N(硅含量99.999999%)以上的多昂硅产品,是制造硅抛光片、太阳能电池及高纯硅制品的主要原料,应 | | 多晶硅 | 用于电力电子上的硅材料纯度要求更高,需要达到11NI以上。 | 多晶硅是单质硅的一种形态,由多个晶面取向不同的晶粒组成,具有金属光泽的灰黑色固体,是光伏产业和半导体工业的基础材料。多晶硅由工业硅提纯制 成,根据纯度可分为冶金级、太阳能级和电子级。 资料来源:公开资料、观研天下整理 从产量来看,2020-2024年,我国多晶硅产量呈高速增长势态,在2023年其产量同比增速更是高 ...
工业硅/多晶硅周度报告:新疆大厂缓慢复产组件终端激烈博弈-20250901
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]
新能源投资周报:消息趋于平淡,基本面权重上升-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the supply side is expected to continue to resume production, and there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon. The pressure on the inventory side has not improved, so the futures prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, with expectations of double production cuts later, and the terminal installation willingness continues to shrink. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [83][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper (both Shanghai and London), aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. For example, the dollar index is at 97.8477, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%. Industrial silicon is at 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [6]. - **New Energy Metals**: The price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62%. The price of lithium carbonate is 77180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.23%, a weekly decline of 2.25%, and an annual increase of 0.10% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 9.00 tons, a 2.25% increase from the previous week. The number of operating furnaces is 281, an increase of 12 from the previous week. In the main production areas, Xinjiang's weekly production is 4.13 tons, a 2.23% increase, with 8 more operating furnaces; Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 1.05 tons, remaining the same, with 1 more operating furnace; Yunnan's weekly production is 1.32 tons, a 3.12% increase, with 2 more operating furnaces; Sichuan's weekly production is 1.29 tons, a 1.57% increase, with the same number of operating furnaces [9]. - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase, the factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the profit per ton is about 61.54 yuan, a 45 - yuan increase. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 4.81 tons, a 4.37% decrease, the factory inventory is 4.93 tons, a 1.02% increase, and the gross profit per ton is - 1859.38 yuan, a 200 - yuan increase per ton [9]. - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 68.82 tons, a 0.34% decrease, with a 19.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The industry inventory is 43.59 tons, a 0.34% decrease. The market inventory is 17.45 tons, remaining the same, and the factory inventory is 26.14 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.23 tons, a 0.34% decrease [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9092 yuan, remaining the same, and the profit per ton is 123 yuan, a 12 - yuan decrease per ton. In the main production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 504, 131, and 200 yuan respectively, a decrease of 33, 0, and 5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The supply side continues to resume production, there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon, and the inventory pressure has not improved. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase. In the main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan have weekly productions of 1.09, 0.57, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with Xinjiang having a 0.88% increase [10]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.73GW, a 1.22% increase. The factory inventory is 18.05GW, a 3.68% increase. In July, the production of silicon wafers was 52.75GW, a 10.35% decrease compared to the previous month and a 0.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. In August, the scheduled production is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month and a 2.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the registered warehouse receipts are 20640 tons, a 5.20% increase [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41368 yuan, a 0.21% decrease, and the profit per ton is 6109 yuan, a 2324 - yuan increase [10]. - **Investment View**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand increase, with expectations of double production cuts later. The terminal installation willingness continues to shrink, and there is no significant positive news in the short - term. The price may oscillate weakly, with support considered at the full - cost level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 1.90 tons, a 0.56% decrease. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is 12249 tons, a 0.57% increase; from lithium mica is 2500 tons, a 5.66% decrease; and from salt lakes is 2515 tons, a 1.45% decrease. In July, the production of lithium carbonate was 8.15 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month, a 26.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.47% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 8.42 tons, a 3.27% increase compared to the previous month and a 37.29% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Import Side**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.38 tons, a 21.77% decrease compared to the previous month and a 42.67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import volume of spodumene concentrate was 57.61 tons, a 34.73% increase compared to the previous month and a 4.82% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Demand Side**: For lithium - iron materials, the weekly production is 6.99 tons, a 1.03% decrease, and the factory inventory is 9.45 tons, a 0.91% increase. In July, the production was 29.07 tons, a 1.86% increase compared to the previous month, a 50.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 1.07% lower than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is 31.14 tons, a 7.12% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.24% increase compared to the same period last year. For ternary materials, the weekly production is 1.76 tons, a 0.17% increase, and the factory inventory is 1.78 tons, a 1.22% increase. In July, the production was 6.86 tons, a 5.75% increase compared to the previous month, a 16.70% increase compared to the same period last year, and 4.38% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 7.08 tons, a 3.07% increase compared to the previous month and a 14.34% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 124.30 million, a 1.95% decrease compared to the previous month and a 26.27% increase compared to the same period last year; the sales volume was 126.20 million, a 5.05% decrease compared to the previous month and a 27.41% increase compared to the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 48.67%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month [84]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.11 tons, a 0.29% decrease. The inventory of lithium - salt factories is 4.33 tons, a 7.49% decrease, and the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 9.78 tons, a 3.28% increase. The cathode - factory inventory is 5.28 tons, a 2.51% increase, and the inventory of battery factories and traders is 4.50 tons, a 4.19% increase. The inventory center continues to shift from upstream to downstream, and the actual production consumption is small, mostly belonging to inventory transfer between different links. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 2.99 tons, a 22.89% increase [84]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica is 80022 yuan/ton, a 5.71% decrease, and the production profit is - 3245 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene is 76440 yuan/ton, a 4.92% decrease, and the production profit is 2418 yuan/ton, a 1195 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated production using lithium mica is 61721 yuan/ton, and from spodumene is 52787 yuan/ton [84]. - **Investment View**: The supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [84].
广发期货日评-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 06:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].
方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250829
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price of carbonate lithium is falling, and the futures price has also dropped significantly. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected. The price is still hard to stabilize, and it is recommended to seize hedging opportunities [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is steadily increasing, while the demand is weak. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the spot price is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a confrontation between strong policy expectations and weak reality, and the support of policy expectations has weakened. The demand is weak, but the spot price has not changed yet. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider participating with a stop - loss [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Pressure Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | Driven by news | 72,000 - 75,000 | 88,000 - 90,000 | Wide - range volatile operation | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound oscillation | Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low levels [15] | | Polysilicon 11 | Insufficient support from policy expectations, increasing concerns about weak demand reality | 45,000 - 46,000 | 52,000 - 53,000 | High - level oscillation | Wait and see [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 78,140 | - 0.91% | 805,585 | 347,063 | - 4,259 | 28,957 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,570 | 0.53% | 293,193 | 273,754 | - 1,804 | 50,656 | | Polysilicon | 49,665 | - 0.10% | 376,304 | 143,912 | - 10,625 | 6,880 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. After the rapid increase in downstream inventory, the probability of further large - scale replenishment may decrease [2]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply is steadily increasing, and the industry operating rate has recovered to over 60%. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the exchange warehouse receipts increased last week [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream demand is weak. The demand for polysilicon is mainly for rigid procurement, the demand for organic silicon is weak, and the aluminum alloy is in the traditional off - season. Although the export of industrial silicon is increasing, it has limited impact on the overall demand [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: No specific production and inventory data are provided, but it is mentioned that the battery cell inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity has declined significantly since June, and domestic installation projects have been postponed. The overseas stocking window for battery cells is coming to an end, and the demand is weak [9].